I suppose the other potential issue is that we don't know what is driving behavioural change (lower socialising).
Is it the case that people are wary of catching Covid and just being careful, or are they more concerned about not wanting Covid pre Christmas and trying to safeguard that, in which case they may return to more normal behaviour patterns after Christmas, which obviously could cause some issues around events like NY Eve.
I imagine there is a fair spectrum of behaviour out there.