Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[Gerry Attrick]

We are Shaun, Ana and the cat.

The cat is safely in quarantine in York and the guy that took him was really nice. They have also emailed reassurance and a picture. He looks ok and with space and light and climbing things.

We are in Nottingham with some really nice people. We did Saturday night in Poland, Sunday night in Germany, Monday night in Rotterdam, Tuesday night on The North Sea, and Wednesday night in England.

So as weeks go... a bit weird.

Thank you to everyone for all your lovely support and messages along the way. If you know who we are, you'll know what I mean.

Ana helped make a Sunday roast today.

Best city on the planet. We’re glad to have you.

[Yorkykopite]

Good stuff Shaun.

You can both nip down into town today and watch the 2nd Test match.

[Jiminy Cricket]

We are Shaun, Ana and the cat.

The cat is safely in quarantine in York and the guy that took him was really nice. They have also emailed reassurance and a picture. He looks ok and with space and light and climbing things.

We are in Nottingham with some really nice people. We did Saturday night in Poland, Sunday night in Germany, Monday night in Rotterdam, Tuesday night on The North Sea, and Wednesday night in England.

So as weeks go... a bit weird.

Thank you to everyone for all your lovely support and messages along the way. If you know who we are, you'll know what I mean.

Ana helped make a Sunday roast today.

Good to hear, Shaun.

Best city on the planet. We’re glad to have you.

You need to get out more!

[Yorkykopite]

Good stuff Shaun.

You can both nip down into town today and watch the 2nd Test match.

In fact it's free entry for Tuesday.

Show her a slice of English summer life! You both deserve it.

[A-Bomb]

Following Putins indication of how he views former Soviet lands as not independent sovereign nations, it appears Poland are making large purchases in equipment, some 400 tanks made in south korea - they are also tooling their population with being able to fire rifles through building many more shooting ranges, along with some medium distant missile launchers.

[lamad]

We are Shaun, Ana and the cat.

The cat is safely in quarantine in York and the guy that took him was really nice. They have also emailed reassurance and a picture. He looks ok and with space and light and climbing things.

We are in Nottingham with some really nice people. We did Saturday night in Poland, Sunday night in Germany, Monday night in Rotterdam, Tuesday night on The North Sea, and Wednesday night in England.

So as weeks go... a bit weird.

Thank you to everyone for all your lovely support and messages along the way. If you know who we are, you'll know what I mean.

Ana helped make a Sunday roast today.

Very glad to hear you made it to the UK! At one point I thought about checking possibilities for you in my neck of the woods (okay, that was unintended I swear), but figured the three of you were fine in Poland and would be able to make your way direct without unnecessary detours. I thought of you regularly though, especially as my uni has set up a programme for Ukrainian students to come here and study, without the usual paperwork and costs, and we now have four Ukrainian students in the acting and the directing programmes (which only consist of eleven students per year) who fled their homes in March/April and it really puts a personal face/faces to this war and its effects.

[Circa1892]

Navalnys gone “missing” from his prison. Wouldn’t imagine he’ll be seen or heard from again.

Sooner the evil dwarf Putin dies the better.

[Yorkykopite]

Life is getting shittier in the shit hole:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russias-economy-buckles-as-western-sanctions-start-to-bite-6kw0knb5t

Shopping centres are threatened with closure, car sales have slumped to a historic low and poverty levels across Russia have soared as western sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine start to hit businesses.

The appearance of vast, upmarket malls in the early years of President Putin’s rule was seen as a sign of economic stability after the widespread deprivations that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. But less than four months after Putin ordered troops into Ukraine, the shopping centres are emptying fast as luxury brands such as Prada and Chanel pull out of the country, along with popular stores such as Adidas and H&M.

More than 1,300 western companies have ended or suspended their operations in Russia since the start of the war in late February. Western films are no longer being released and cinemas are now largely empty, despite attempts to entice customers with Chinese and Indian releases.....

....Separately, Russia’s isolation and crackdown on even the mildest forms of dissent are triggering both a brain drain and the departure of some of its wealthiest people. Tens of thousands of IT specialists and other young professionals have left the country since the start of the war. More than 15,000 Russian millionaires are also expected to relocate by the end of the year, according to data compiled by Henley & Partners, a London investment advisory firm.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Life is getting shittier in the shit hole:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russias-economy-buckles-as-western-sanctions-start-to-bite-6kw0knb5t

Excellent news!

[thaddeus]

Life is getting shittier in the shit hole:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russias-economy-buckles-as-western-sanctions-start-to-bite-6kw0knb5t

Shopping centres are threatened with closure, car sales have slumped to a historic low and poverty levels across Russia have soared as western sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine start to hit businesses.

The appearance of vast, upmarket malls in the early years of President Putin’s rule was seen as a sign of economic stability after the widespread deprivations that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. But less than four months after Putin ordered troops into Ukraine, the shopping centres are emptying fast as luxury brands such as Prada and Chanel pull out of the country, along with popular stores such as Adidas and H&M.

More than 1,300 western companies have ended or suspended their operations in Russia since the start of the war in late February. Western films are no longer being released and cinemas are now largely empty, despite attempts to entice customers with Chinese and Indian releases.....

....Separately, Russia’s isolation and crackdown on even the mildest forms of dissent are triggering both a brain drain and the departure of some of its wealthiest people. Tens of thousands of IT specialists and other young professionals have left the country since the start of the war. More than 15,000 Russian millionaires are also expected to relocate by the end of the year, according to data compiled by Henley & Partners, a London investment advisory firm.

I can't remember the exact quote but one of the citizens in Mariupol quoted a Russian soldier destroying the city as saying something like "We have to live in shit so you can live in shit too".  The average Russian citizen's life being made that bit worse probably won't lead to the fundamental change (most of) the world would like to see.

It would be interesting to know how Putin views the brain drain; a long-term undermining of the Russian economy or just a few less critics of his regime for him to worry about.  I expect it's probably the latter.

[Yorkykopite]

It would be interesting to know how Putin views the brain drain; a long-term undermining of the Russian economy or just a few less critics of his regime for him to worry about.  I expect it's probably the latter.

He's always been lacking in wisdom and now he is truly demented so you're probably right. Plus all the emigres are homosexuals, or something like that.

[KillieRed]

Would be great if trouble at home meant that he had to withhold resources (in every form) from the war effort.

[Red-Soldier]

‘Justice’ for Ukraine overshadowed by cost of living concerns, polling shows

Survey across 10 European countries and UK shows respondents favouring an end to the conflict rather than holding Russia accountable

Europe’s unity over the war in Ukraine is at risk as public attention increasingly shifts from the battlefield to cost of living concerns, polling across 10 European countries suggests, with the divide deepening between voters who want a swift end to the conflict and those who want Russia punished.

The survey in nine EU member states – Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden – plus the UK found support for Ukraine remained high, but that preoccupations have shifted to the conflict’s wider impacts.

“Europeans had surprised Putin – and themselves – by their unity so far, but the big stresses are coming now,” said Mark Leonard, a co-author of a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on changing attitudes to Russia’s invasion.

Governments’ ability to retain public support for potentially harmful policies would be crucial, Leonard said, warning that the gulf between the “peace” and “justice” camps could be “as damaging as that between creditors and debtors during the euro crisis”.

The survey found that despite strong support across Europe for Ukraine’s bid to join the EU and the west’s policy of severing ties with Moscow, many voters in Europe want the war to end as soon as possible – even if that means Ukraine losing territory.

That view often did not reflect the position of national governments, the authors said, cautioning EU leaders against “maximalist positions” over the war and suggesting they remain tough on Russia but cautious about the dangers of escalation.

“In the early stages of the war, countries in central and eastern Europe felt vindicated in their hawkishness towards Russia,” write Leonard and his co-author Ivan Krastev. “But in the next phase countries such as Poland could find themselves marginalised if the ‘peace’ camp broadens its appeal among the other member states.”

The polling, carried out between 28 April and 11 May, found near-universal support for Ukraine, with 73% of respondents across the 10 countries blaming Russia for the war.

More than 80% in Poland, Sweden, the UK (83%) and Finland (90%) said they held Russia responsible, along with strong majorities in Italy (56%), France (62%) and Germany (66%), while majorities or pluralities also saw Russia as the main block to peace.

There was strong support for cutting links with Russia. A majority across the 10 countries felt governments should sever economic and cultural relations with Moscow, with most – rising to 71% in Poland – also favouring an end to diplomatic ties.

Similarly, 58% across the 10 countries – rising to 77% in Finland – wanted the EU to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, even at the expense of the bloc’s climate goals, suggesting public support for a new round of EU sanctions, including on oil.

But ECFR’s polling showed a clear divide between Europeans who want peace as soon as possible (35% across the 10 countries), and those who want justice – defined as restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and holding Russia to account (22%).

A third “swing” group, who share the anti-Russian feelings of justice supporters but also the peace camp’s fears of escalation, accounted for about 20% of voters, the report found – with major distribution differences between countries.

The peace camp – whose backers also tended to believe Ukraine would be worse off than Russia at the end of the conflict – was most strongly supported in Italy (52%), the polling found, while Poland had the biggest justice camp, at 41%.

Crucially, views on the EU’s policy response to the invasion varied depending on which camp respondents were in, with justice voters backing the severance of economic, diplomatic and cultural ties, and peace voters supporting only the first of these.

Asked what worried them most about the war, respondents in Germany, Italy and France were most concerned about the cost of living and energy prices, while respondents in Sweden, the UK and Poland were most concerned about the threat of nuclear war.

As the conflict drags on and costs grow, governments will increasingly be forced to “balance the pursuit of European unity with opinions that diverge both within and among member states”, the authors write, pointing to a “growing gap between the positions of many governments and the public mood in their respective countries”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/justice-for-ukraine-overshadowed-by-cost-of-living-concerns-study-shows

[Red-Soldier]

Russia rakes in nearly $20bn from oil exports in May

Rise in revenues is setback for west’s efforts to hit Russian economy in wake of Ukraine invasion

Russia raked in around $20bn (£16.6bn) from oil exports in May, as revenues bounced back to prewar levels in a setback to western efforts to choke off its economy following its invasion of Ukraine.

Yields from shipping crude and oil products rose 11% from a month earlier despite a 3% fall in exports, according to the International Energy Agency’s monthly report.

Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russian oil and gas – the Kremlin’s largest source of revenues.The US banned Russian fuel imports, while the UK and the EU have agreed to phase out their use.

However, Asian nations including China and India have ramped up their imports of Russian fuel, enticed by record discounts of more than 30% on Brent crude.

Russia has been able to cope with the discounts due to the surge in the price of Brent crude. Urals, Russia’s main export blend, averaged $78.81 a barrel in May, up almost 12% from a month before.

Oil prices are up 70% over the last year, at about $121 a barrel. Although the price came down this week on fears the US Federal Reserve will surprise markets with a higher-than-expected interest rate hike.

The US government appears poised to follow the UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak, in introducing a windfall tax on excessive oil company profits.

Goldman Sachs said last week that oil prices could reach $140 this summer, triggering more pain at the pumps. Britons are facing record petrol and diesel prices due to a weakened pound and a squeeze on refining capacity.

Wholesale gas prices are also rising as an extended outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant following a fire at the US facility, and the curtailment of supplies via the Russian Nord Stream 1 pipeline, stoked supply concerns.

The gas contract for within-day delivery in the UK rose by 10p to 180p per therm and the day-ahead contract jumped by 14p to 180p a therm – a two-month high for both contracts. UK gas contracts for delivery in July are up about 25% to £1.97 per therm.

Freeport LNG said on Tuesday that repairs to its Texas Gulf Coast plant after an explosion last week could last until the end of the year and it would restart some operations in 90 days, rather than in July.

The supply headache for European nations was exacerbated as Russia said it would cut capacity on the huge Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany by around 40%. Moscow has retaliated after delays to the return of gas turbines to Russia’s Gazprom that Siemens Energy said had been blocked by Canadian sanctions after maintenance in Montreal.

Analysts at Jefferies warned issues at Shell’s Prelude liquefied natural gas facility off Western Australian could also hit volumes. Workers began weeks of strike action last week and an investigation by regulators into the site’s smoke detectors may also impact supply.

Last week, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, labelled the failure by governments and businesses to accelerate energy efficiency efforts as “inexplicable”.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/15/russia-rakes-in-nearly-20bn-from-oil-exports-in-may

[Libertine]

Scholz, Macron and Draghi (finally) on their way to Kyiv this morning.

Hopefully will lead to some renewed and extended support for Ukraine - both militarily and in terms of EU candidacy.

[Red-Soldier]

Scholz, Macron and Draghi (finally) on their way to Kyiv this morning.

Hopefully will lead to some renewed and extended support for Ukraine - both militarily and in terms of EU candidacy.

Where's your Macron avatar gone........?

[Libertine]

Where's your Macron avatar gone........?

Been wanting to switch to Zelenskyy for a while but didn't want to jinx it before re-election was secured... 

[west_london_red]

Been wanting to switch to Zelenskyy for a while but didn't want to jinx it before re-election was secured... 

A much better choice!

[Yorkykopite]

Well done Igor Denisov.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/15/former-footballer-igor-denisov-condemns-russias-war-in-ukraine

One of my favourite characters in 'War and Peace' is Denisov - the broad-minded, liberal-inclined, jolly hussar. Perhaps they're related. It takes some guts to do what he's done anyhow.

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Volunteers convincing civilians to evacuate in Lyschansk.

A very good video explaining why civilians in general don't leave even when they are being shelled.

https://youtu.be/LhqXU-XkpJM

[Jiminy Cricket]

Volunteers convincing civilians to evacuate in Lyschansk.

A very good video explaining why civilians in general don't leave even when they are being shelled.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzCoJXxb5xI

Did you link the correct video?

[Libertine]

Romanian president on the right.

Not sure Volodymer will ever wear a suit again....

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Did you link the correct video?

Fixed.

Actually, that video that was linked was pretty good too. CaspianReport does some great work.

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Zelenskyy’s response to the meeting today in three parts. Very upbeat assessment.


https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1537556181249564673?s=21&t=ktjJNQG--KmHa9aEHUapUQ

[Gerry Attrick]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/18/olena-zelenska-ukraine-first-lady-rare-interview-family-under-threat

Good journalism by the Guardian.

[Barrow Shaun]

We are still looking for an apartment/flat if anyone has any ideas. Don't need big, just a couple of rooms and pretty basic, plus Ana's offer of a Celta/work etc is now online so we have no location restrictions. Obviously prefer the north.

Currently both work, so something like 550-650 pcm would be ideal.

If anyone can help, please do.

I'll hijack this thread no longer, so pms would be perfect. Peace and best wishes to all. Shaun. (+Ana and cat)

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

After Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan where he pronounced that all ex-Soviet republics belong to Russia, and Tokayev pushing back by refusing to recognise the DPR and LPR, the economic sanctions have started.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1538720418432966657?s=21&t=tNnVHA0ZKSYDWaT1HG6njQ

A fairly significant development, as it’s sowing the seeds of discontent among the former Asian republics of Soviet Asia.

[Sangria]

After Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan where he pronounced that all ex-Soviet republics belong to Russia, and Tokayev pushing back by refusing to recognise the DPR and LPR, the economic sanctions have started.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1538720418432966657?s=21&t=tNnVHA0ZKSYDWaT1HG6njQ

A fairly significant development, as it’s sowing the seeds of discontent among the former Asian republics of Soviet Asia.

What do China make of this? A number of former Soviet republics are on their border.

[Yorkykopite]

Interesting action by Lithuania

https://twitter.com/i/events/1538908643726397440

Wouldn't it be great if, at the end of this, Kaliningrad peeled away from the Russian Empire? I remember reading a few years ago how people living in the enclave were - inevitably - much more aware of how shit their lives were compared with Europeans than their poor sisters and brothers in the rest of the empire.

[TSC]

Interesting action by Lithuania

https://twitter.com/i/events/1538908643726397440

Wouldn't it be great if, at the end of this, Kaliningrad peeled away from the Russian Empire? I remember reading a few years ago how people living in the enclave were - inevitably - much more aware of how shit their lives were compared with Europeans than their poor sisters and brothers in the rest of the empire.

Always wondered why Kalingrad was part of Russia despite being cut off from mainland Russia by some distance. 

[Yorkykopite]

Always wondered why Kaliningrad was part of Russia despite being cut off from mainland Russia by some distance. 

I think the population of the city - Konigsberg as it was - went through a near 100 per cent change after the Nazi defeat. Germans were evicted from east Prussia and K was a part of that. I presume Russians were moved in because of its wealth and strategic location. And then they named it after a killer from Stalin's Politburo.

[west_london_red]

I think the population of the city - Konigsberg as it was - went through a near 100 per cent change after the Nazi defeat. Germans were evicted from east Prussia and K was a part of that. I presume Russians were moved in because of its wealth and strategic location. And then they named it after a killer from Stalin's Politburo.

Am having flashbacks to history lessons at school, the free city of Danzig, the Polish corridor… it’s like I’m 18 again!

[Yorkykopite]

Am having flashbacks to history lessons at school, the free city of Danzig, the Polish corridor… it’s like I’m 18 again!

Yeah. Apparently Gdansk (ex-Danzig) is a brilliant place to visit. I was told this yesterday.

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Ukraine and Moldova granted EU candidate status. Probably still a long way to go for full approval, but nonetheless something which would have not been imaginable just a year ago.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Yeah. Apparently Gdansk (ex-Danzig) is a brilliant place to visit. I was told this yesterday.

It is. The Three Cities, Gdansk, Sopot and Gydinia are all worth a visit.

[Yorkykopite]

The Russians are stealing Ukrainian infrastructure and shipping it back to Russia - pretty much as the Red Army did in Czechoslovakia after 1945. It's pure looting. An ignorant and poverty-stricken nation stripping a more sophisticated one of its gear.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1539868082826608642

Quite what this level of thieving has to do with the western expansion of NATO nobody knows.

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Official video from Defence Ministry of Ukraine, thanking UK for their supply of anti-tank weapons. Steven Gerrard makes an appearance.

https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1540023236326481920?s=21&t=F9i-lmHFvkRZWdAl5pUmpg

[Yorkykopite]

Official video from Defence Ministry of Ukraine, thanking UK for their supply of anti-tank weapons. Steven Gerrard makes an appearance.

https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1540023236326481920?s=21&t=F9i-lmHFvkRZWdAl5pUmpg

...and in the Red of Liverpool. Great stuff.

[Sangria]

It shouldn't be forgotten that Russia have their hi-tech weapons systems too, such as this SAM shown spectacularly hitting its target.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1540195160310665217

[Yorkykopite]

It shouldn't be forgotten that Russia have their hi-tech weapons systems too, such as this SAM shown spectacularly hitting its target.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1540195160310665217

The more you see of Russian military technology the more you realise that the biggest single factor in they way Russia fights war is vodka.