Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17

[RooiBefok]

LFC Current & Projected Form: Round 38

[Banquo's Ghost]

I'll add my thanks to Prof for the APLT and Nessy for his excellent commentary. All the posters in this thread too, because of you it's one of the most informative and courteous threads on RAWK.

[Iska]

Exactly the same period, games 13 to 24, is what's killed us both years.  That's a squad depth issue.

EDIT: I've just read that next season there's to be six matches from mid-December to the end of the New Year period?  We've got to get that sorted as a priority.

[Dougle]

Thanks Prof, Nessy & Co. Great thread all season.

[MerseysideBrum]

First 19 -2
Next 5 -10
Final 14 -2

Those 5 games, during witch Mane was at AFCON, that stopped us competing.

[campioni]

First 19 -2
Next 5 -10
Final 14 -2

Those 5 games, during witch Mane was at AFCON, that stopped us competing.

You can't put it all on Mane being at the AFCON. He only missed two league games, United and Swansea and came off the bench against Chelsea.

Overall squad depth let us down. We didn't have enough quality to bring in and help with the workload in January when we had 9 games across the cups and league.

[Byrneand]

Thanks Prof

[Byrneand]

Just out of interest, has anyone compared how much the positions in the APLT varied to the real table.

I love the analysis and thought process that it brings, but just wondering.

[scalatore]

Thanks to Prof for making this all happen. Probably the best thread on here, and always a useful way of contextualizing the season. Also thanks to Nessy for the match previews and JCB for the excellent supplementary content.

Next season the red line is going to start on 0 and it's going to end on 0. Trust me.

[JCB]

Thanks to all the regular contributors and readers out there and a special thanks to Prof, drmick and RAWK for helping me to develop the relegation table this year. Refinements and suggestions are welcome after it's maiden trial although I must say the Prof's model has been pretty good.

Going forward I might be interested in testing and evaluating* suggestions on possible refinements if my spreadsheet allows it over the summer. So DonkeyWan feel free to elaborate on your previous comment (wondering if this requires a new thread somewhere or wether to just do it here). I've collated every result over the last 16 years as I was going to analyse the data for my Segmented PPG idea over in the Top 6 mini-league thread.


* what I mean here is that we can once and for all see if these refinements actually help or not

Relegation APLT: Season End 2017

EDIT: Thought I'd add a clearer version (bottom 7) as well

[MerseysideBrum]

You can't put it all on Mane being at the AFCON. He only missed two league games, United and Swansea and came off the bench against Chelsea.

Overall squad depth let us down. We didn't have enough quality to bring in and help with the workload in January when we had 9 games across the cups and league.

IIRC coutinho was injured as well at the time and game back for united away. It is obviously down to squad depth, if we'd of had a bit more luck with injuries (like Chelsea had). We'd of been closer.

[drmick]

Question is, should the 71-point line be reviewed to next season? Except Arsenal, the top 6 seems now to be relative stable before the next season, with Man U, Man City and Chelsea now having managers who can work through the summer and really get their message across. We can say that this season was a bit of a historical "freak" when it comes to the points needed for top 4, but just looking at it now, I would not expect any of the top 6 to drop in performance (except maybe Arsenal if there is a change, and there can be arguments for Chelsea and maybe us because of European Football)

I'd say give it one more season as is.  There is a good chance Arsenal or Utd might have issues next season.

[drmick]

Thanks to all the regular contributors and readers out there and a special thanks to Prof, drmick and RAWK for helping me to develop the relegation table this year. Refinements and suggestions are welcome after it's maiden trial although I must say the Prof's model has been pretty good.

Going forward I might be interested in testing and evaluating* suggestions on possible refinements if my spreadsheet allows it over the summer. So DonkeyWan feel free to elaborate on your previous comment (wondering if this requires a new thread somewhere or wether to just do it here). I've collated every result over the last 16 years as I was going to analyse the data for my Segmented PPG idea over in the Top 6 mini-league thread.


* what I mean here is that we can once and for all see if these refinements actually help or not

Relegation APLT: Season End 2017

EDIT: Thought I'd add a clearer version (bottom 7) as well

Just a reminder to folks about the relegation APLT:
PL top 7 are Par 0, so they expect to lose those games home and away.

PL bottom 12/13 are like the traditional APLT- home games are Par 3 which should be won, away games are Par 1 where a draw is considered playing to par.

There was debate about which of Leicester or Everton should be considered top 7 this season. Thankfully not an issue next season, though hopefully Rafa makes it an issue for next season!

[Brian Blessed]

I don't understand what these graphs mean, but they're pointless shit.

J/K, wanted to beat someone inevitably saying that to the punch

Thanks all, this is by far the sanest thread on the main LFC board, and makes for fascinating reading.

[Cotchin]

Splitting the season into thirds (13 games 1-13, 12 games 14-25, 13 games 26-38)

Chelsea: 0//1//2
Tottenham: -7//0//3
Man C: -1//-6//-5
Liverpool:1//-13//-2
Arsenal: -3//-6//-6
Man U: -11//0//-10

We all knew it, but worst third of any team this season from this data set. Doesn't factor in how many Par 1's and Par 3's each team had but hard to argue with it.

[Prof]

Splitting the season into thirds (13 games 1-13, 12 games 14-25, 13 games 26-38)

Chelsea: 0//1//2
Tottenham: -7//0//3
Man C: -1//-6//-5
Liverpool:1//-13//-2
Arsenal: -3//-6//-6
Man U: -11//0//-10

We all knew it, but worst third of any team this season from this data set. Doesn't factor in how many Par 1's and Par 3's each team had but hard to argue with it.

Very interesting.  You have to think if Spurs can get the first period of the season right, they'll be serious contenders.

For us, my worry is that we scraped 4th in the end despite not having European competition.  We need more strength in depth to cope with the additional games, then we need the players recruited to have chance to build the cohesion with the rest of the group.

[Iska]

Splitting the season into thirds (13 games 1-13, 12 games 14-25, 13 games 26-38)

Chelsea: 0//1//2
Tottenham: -7//0//3
Man C: -1//-6//-5
Liverpool:1//-13//-2
Arsenal: -3//-6//-6
Man U: -11//0//-10

We all knew it, but worst third of any team this season from this data set. Doesn't factor in how many Par 1's and Par 3's each team had but hard to argue with it.

It's notable that Arsenal's line is actually almost the same as ours, except they had their slump half-a-dozen games later so it isn't all in the same third.  Move their line back four spaces and their season breaks down to -4//-13//+2.  They had a slightly worse start and a little uptick at the end, but otherwise if you plotted the two lines on a graph on their own they'd be pretty close.

I dunno if that says anything useful though.  I don't think of us as being particularly like them to be honest.

[Nessy76]

Very interesting.  You have to think if Spurs can get the first period of the season right, they'll be serious contenders.

For us, my worry is that we scraped 4th in the end despite not having European competition.  We need more strength in depth to cope with the additional games, then we need the players recruited to have chance to build the cohesion with the rest of the group.

We need a combination of new signings and being able to play our best players more often. I don't think it's a coincidence that our dip in form came when Mane was off at AFCON and Coutinho was out injured. When we played Henderson, Wijnaldum, Lallana, Mane, Firmino & Coutinho we were pretty much unstoppable, but we just couldn't put all six on the same pitch often enough. The risk of "burnout" was raised as a possibility based on Klopp's style of football, and with more games next season there'll be more pressure on the squad. Hopefully we can now recruit from a position of strength and keep hold of the "magic six".

Thanks Prof for a great thread. Thanks for everyone's kind words. Sorry I've not been as active as usual.

YNWA

[Thush]

Are we having one of these for 2017/18? One of my favourite threads.

[dudleyred]

Are we having one of these for 2017/18? One of my favourite threads.

https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191.0