Topic: Predictions: Top 4

[Jookie]

People are aware that not only did Spurs get battered by Leicester a few games ago, but lost to Wolves at the weekend...?

Spurs are an erratic team in terms of performance and results.

Just need to look at the games you highlighted (plus getting beat by Sheff United in FA Cup). Equally they have beaten Chelsea and City in a similar time period. Wouldn't bet against them getting through to the CL QFs this week.

I don't seem them being perfect and rolling off a run of 8 or 9 wins on the bounce. Equally I don't see them falling apart. Think they'll continue to be a mixed bag and get somewhere between 64 and 67 points.

I'm less sure on Newcastle. they are in terrible form currently. But before hand have been a 2point s game type team. If I had to guess I think they'll also end up around 65 points.

That's what our aim should be -  +65 points. That should be able but we've been a really inconsistent team. If the last 5 games are more indicative of where we are heading then 65 points should be easily do-able.

[MonsLibpool]

One game at a time. Bournemouth next.

[MonsLibpool]

Spurs are an erratic team in terms of performance and results.

Just need to look at the games you highlighted (plus getting beat by Sheff United in FA Cup). Equally they have beaten Chelsea and City in a similar time period. Wouldn't bet against them getting through to the CL QFs this week.

I don't seem them being perfect and rolling off a run of 8 or 9 wins on the bounce. Equally I don't see them falling apart. Think they'll continue to be a mixed bag and get somewhere between 64 and 67 points.

I'm less sure on Newcastle. they are in terrible form currently. But before hand have been a 2point s game type team. If I had to guess I think they'll also end up around 65 points.

That's what our aim should be -  +65 points. That should be able but we've been a really inconsistent team. If the last 5 games are more indicative of where we are heading then 65 points should be easily do-able.

Newcastle are totally out of it mate. They have no chance. They've been overperforming and have now run out of steam.

Spurs might have easier fixtures on paper but it's doesn't seem to be a happy camp there so them losing against awful teams wouldn't be a surprise.

Yeah I agree. 65 points are about right. That'd probably be one of the lowest tallies in history for a team that finishes fourth.

[DelTrotter]

The others dropping the required points was never going to be the problem, was all about whether we could find our proper level or close to it.  Signs are positive but got to improve our away form now. 4 of the next 5 are away. Think if we get 5 or 6 from City, Arsenal and Chelsea we'll stroll it given our remaining fixtures after that. 9 wins from 13 should absolutely nail it, hopefully less is required but wouldn't like to chance it.

[LovelyCushionedHeader]

Need to also pay Brighton some attention. If they win their games in hand, they are outright fourth. They are also probably the most reliable team going for it in that you generally know what you're going to get going into any given game.

[JackWard33]

Need to also pay Brighton some attention. If they win their games in hand, they are outright fourth. They are also probably the most reliable team going for it in that you generally know what you're going to get going into any given game.

Yup - they've been playing really really well... they've got the 4th best xg over the season on fbref fwiw.
The obvious suspicion is that they'll drop off with a smaller squad but they've got a lot of very winnable games left
Currently 7/1 with the bookies which feels much too high  (538 model prefers them to Newcastle who are 2/1 for example)

[didi shamone]

Yup - they've been playing really really well... they've got the 4th best xg over the season on fbref fwiw.
The obvious suspicion is that they'll drop off with a smaller squad but they've got a lot of very winnable games left
Currently 7/1 with the bookies which feels much too high  (538 model prefers them to Newcastle who are 2/1 for example)

Always used to struggle for goals under Potter.  Now Chelsea do. 

[spartan2785]

I'm honestly the most worried about Brighton, Newcastle is already falling off, Spurs are well....Spurs, but Brighton have got a pretty decent schedule still left to get a lot of wins, and it just feels as if they don't have the same blips in their game that the other clubs do. 

They do have a pretty easy QF against Grimsby, so the FA cup is going to be a massive distraction towards the end of the season. 

[Wabaloolah]

I can't believe people are concerned about perennial bottlers Spurs, I'd be more concerned about Brighton if I was at all concerned about any team.

Personally I think we'll get 4th comfortably and depending on how Utd implode following yesterday's battering could even sneak 3rd which would be a decent return after the season we've had

[Crosby Nick]

12.30 on the Saturday (presumably) after an international break is probably not a bad time to play City either. Hopefully a lot of their’s will have travelled far and wide, and probably clocked up more minutes than our lads.

Remember we have Spurs at home in our back pocket too. Can be a tricky game, but if we go into it needing the win I’m confident we will.

[Crosby Nick]

Newcastle are totally out of it mate. They have no chance. They've been overperforming and have now run out of steam.

Spurs might have easier fixtures on paper but it's doesn't seem to be a happy camp there so them losing against awful teams wouldn't be a surprise.

Yeah I agree. 65 points are about right. That'd probably be one of the lowest tallies in history for a team that finishes fourth.

When Everton finished above us to get 4th in 2005 I’m sure it was with something like 57 points.

Edit 61. We got 58.

[MD1990]

a piece on Brighton on MNF is highlighting their danger as a top 4 threat.

The job De Zerbi is doing is incredible.
He will be at a top club very soon

[PeterTheRed ...]

Brighton will not finish in the top 4 ...

[Kopenhagen]

Brighton look a bit worrisome.

Expect United to implode. Spurs to bottle it as usual.

[MonsLibpool]

When Everton finished above us to get 4th in 2005 I’m sure it was with something like 57 points.

Edit 61. We got 58.

That was a really poor season.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Brighton's top scorers at the moment are Gross, Mitoma and Mac Allister with 6, and March with 5 goals. I know they did well against us this season, but a team with that type of attack stands no chance in an April/May top 4 race ...

[Wabaloolah]

Brighton's top scorers at the moment are Gross, Mitoma and Mac Allister with 6, and March with 5 goals. I know they did well against us this season, but a team with that type of attack stands no chance in an April/May top 4 race ...

tend to agree but think they are more of a threat than Newcastle or Spurs

[Crosby Nick]

I don’t think Brighton need CL football as much as other clubs. Think they’d be happy just getting to Europe one way or another and if they make the FA Cup semis they may lose a bit of focus.

[PeterTheRed ...]

tend to agree but think they are more of a threat than Newcastle or Spurs

Nah, all 3 teams have flaws. As long as we stay fit, we will beat all 3 of them to the top 4 ...

[Wabaloolah]

Nah, all 3 teams have flaws. As long as we stay fit, we will beat all 3 of them to the top 4 ...

agree, I'm very confident we'll get top 4

[deano2727]

Brighton and Newcastle won’t finish 4th. As Spursy as Spurs are, if we finish above them, we are playing CL football next year.

More than any other team, my worry is ourselves, particularly these next 4 fixtures. They are a very cruel run of fixtures. Even Bournemouth away isn’t ideal, although anything but a win there would be a disaster and we Can probably forget about 4th.

[nayia2002]

I think if take 27 points(total 69) from remaining 39(13 games) left that should give us a top 4 finish

[nayia2002]

a piece on Brighton on MNF is highlighting their danger as a top 4 threat.

The job De Zerbi is doing is incredible.
He will be at a top club very soon

Said it to couple of mates few games ago. He's a brilliant manager and can see him winning leagues and champion leagues with a big top club

[MonsLibpool]

With Diaz coming back, we have enough in attack to blow teams away even though other areas aren't perfect.

[DelTrotter]

Ok yeah, I'm not being delusional any more about this and getting excited when we win a game, we are absolutely dreadful and there's not a fucking hope we get it. A Europa spot would be remarkable given how bad we've been but doubt we'll manage that either.

[Barneylfc∗]

Ok yeah, I'm not being delusional any more about this and getting excited when we win a game, we are absolutely dreadful and there's not a fucking hope we get it. A Europa spot would be remarkable given how bad we've been but doubt we'll manage that either.

0 points in our next 3 wouldn't be a shock. Spurs could and probably should win their next 5.

[FlashGordon]

We're going for top 4, not the title. Results like this happen. Spurs just lost to Wolves last week. It will go down to the wire unfortunately.

[ScubaSteve]

Surely that’s our top 4 chance gone now. We win today and momentum is building.

Take Europa and end this season already.

[FlashGordon]

Surely that’s our top 4 chance gone now. We win today and momentum is building.

Take Europa and end this season already.

How is anything decided today? We're shit, Spurs are shit, Newcastle are shit. Anything can happen.

Going by your logic we should have won every game for the rest of the season after last weekend.

[DelTrotter]

0 points in our next 3 wouldn't be a shock. Spurs could and probably should win their next 5.

Yep, a plucky defeat v City, a no show v Chelsea then we'll probably game raise v Arsenal but who knows if it'll be enough.

It's all well and good loads saying "these things happen in a top 4 race" every time we drop points, sure true but we have less margin for error than the rest as we are constantly chasing. I'll take "these things happening" when we are 4 points above Tottenham or something, not when we are behind.

[disgraced cake]

I think we'll put better performances in against City/Chelsea/Arsenal - It's just what we've done all season. Personally, I reckon we'll take 4 points from that, which surely, fucking surely won't be good enough come the end of the season. We've laughed in past years at shit teams looking to get the 4th spot, saying whoever gets it doesn't deserve it, and unfortunately this season we're one of those sides. Let's hope we do get it, but even not there's big work to be done this summer.

I still think Spurs could shit themselves, though.

[Ravishing Rick Dude]

We're going for top 4, not the title. Results like this happen. Spurs just lost to Wolves last week. It will go down to the wire unfortunately.

Yep. Lucky for us, Chelsea are shite, and Newcastle and Spurs are inconsistent just like us.

[MonsLibpool]

Surely that’s our top 4 chance gone now. We win today and momentum is building.

Take Europa and end this season already.

We can't keep doing this every week

[clinical]

I think Spurs get top 4 after today.

[MonsLibpool]

I think Spurs get top 4 after today.

They are shite too. The best thing we can do is to not have any expectations and take it game by game. We win one and we're nailed on then lose and we won't make the top 4. It's been happening for weeks on end now. A more balanced perspective would help.

[deano2727]

Brighton and Newcastle won’t finish 4th. As Spursy as Spurs are, if we finish above them, we are playing CL football next year.

More than any other team, my worry is ourselves, particularly these next 4 fixtures. They are a very cruel run of fixtures. Even Bournemouth away isn’t ideal, although anything but a win there would be a disaster and we Can probably forget about 4th.

Yeah. F*ck sake.

[Nick110581]

Gap will be too large between us and Spurs by the time our fixtures are easier

[MonsLibpool]

Gap will be too large between us and Spurs by the time our fixtures are easier

Playing easier games doesn't seem to help us.

[Nick110581]

Playing easier games doesn't seem to help us.

We won’t get it.

Away form been shit all season.

[Crouch Potato]

We're going for top 4, not the title. Results like this happen. Spurs just lost to Wolves last week. It will go down to the wire unfortunately.

True but we're already playing catch up, we can't afford to keep slipping up when playing a team literally bottom of the table at the start of the day.