Topic: Labour Thread * No Gaza *

[TepidT2O]

This whole affair is beyond distasteful.

I’ve no time for those Corbynites who snipe from their newspaper columns at Starmer’s Labour. Owen Jones in the Guardian and Andrew Fisher in the iPaper consistently do this, and they piss me off no end.

But this episode represents something of a watershed. Do we now accept a notion that Natalie Elphicke has had a Damascene conversion?

Of course not. So the blatant and patent cynicism of her decision should, if we’re being morally consistent, beg the question asked this evening of John McDonnell - if Elphicke is ‘acceptable’ why shouldn’t the whip be restored to Diane Abbott? It’s a good question. Personally I have little time for either, but of the two, Diane Abbott is preferable by a considerable margin.

Abbott should be reinstated. My guess is that there are certain requirements in order to do so and she might not be willing to do them. 

[Circa1892]

Abbott should be reinstated. My guess is that there are certain requirements in order to do so and she might not be willing to do them. 

It’s pretty well known that she’s been asked to apologise and go on a training course and has refused.

[cornishscouser92]

i used to think he was relevant but i was wrong , he is an empty vessel

He’s like a 7 year old, when he doesn’t get his way he sulks and strops.

And a raging anti-Semite.

[Red Beret]

Abbott should be reinstated. My guess is that there are certain requirements in order to do so and she might not be willing to do them.

It’s pretty well known that she’s been asked to apologise and go on a training course and has refused.

She said recently that she didn't want the whip back. Comes across as too stubborn to admit she's wrong.

[TepidT2O]

NEW: Labour's lead is now at 30 points - the biggest yet since Liz Truss

LAB 48 (+4)
CON: 18 (=)
REF UK 13 (-2)
LIB DEM 9 (-1)
GRN 7 (-1)

Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
YouGov for Times

[TepidT2O]

Would leave the Tories with 13 mps. Might not be that valid . But can we not dream?!!!!!

[Circa1892]

I find the "Tories complete wipeout" scenarios completely underplay the Lib Dems - which makes me doubt them.

[west_london_red]

The problem with polling like this is that it just means there’s less chance of a general election until the very last minute.

[west_london_red]

I find the "Tories complete wipeout" scenarios completely underplay the Lib Dems - which makes me doubt them.

I’m not sure the Lib Dem’s are doing anything that suggests their polling to be underplayed, they have become a lot less visible then they used to be as their number of MPs has dropped

[Riquende]

Would leave the Tories with 13 mps. Might not be that valid . But can we not dream?!!!!!

I've ended up with results like that before on the Electoral Calculus site, and I think it leaves the highest profile Tory MPs (and therefore likely leadership candidates) as:

Steve Barclay (threw his hat in the ring 2017 and has had cabinet roles since. Former army officer)
Victoria Atkins (from 'good' Tory stock and Health Sec, despite being married to the head of British Sugar)
Mark Francois (Professional Peter Griffin impersonator when not on TA manoeuvres. Don't let Will Self tell you how small his manhood is)

In fact that list was pulled from a result that saw them with a whopping 24 MPs, so it's possible even those won't make it. I'll have to run these numbers and see who'd remain.

[Yorkykopite]

Its the bitterness of people who hate that Labour are now an electable force again after years of being of no use whatsoever just jumping on absolutely anything and everything they can to criticise them.

That describes the syndrome very well.

Many of those people were never serious about politics. They don't really care what's happened to the country over the last 15 years. It was - still is - a game for them.

[Andy82lfc]

The problem with polling like this is that it just means there’s less chance of a general election until the very last minute.

You could also say that polls like these may cause more panic and calls for an earlier election by some tory mp's, as things most likely will keep getting worse.

[Andy82lfc]

I was always of the thought that Starmer was 'playing the game' and doing it really well with a straight bat to gain all the swing tory voters over the last years, and he's clearly proved it has worked a fucking treat.

I've always been on board with that, basically whatever Corbyn did for PR and crash votes do the opposite, idea of thinking. So if he sees this move to bring a horrid mercenary on as a way to show more tory voters "look even the Tory's don't believe in their own party now, not only that but they believe in us instead" then fair play if it works, even though it's extreme; I want as many tory MP's on their arse come the election night. If he's not doing it as part of the game then it's definitely a bit much though!

[RedDeadRejection]

With a very big leap in the council elections toward independent and greens. I think Labour can afford to be a bit braver now. There's appetite for it.

[Fitzy.]

The problem with polling like this is that it just means there’s less chance of a general election until the very last minute.

Indeed, but it's a gamble for the Tories. As the months pass, their polling gets worse and worse. Sunak is obviously a liability but so is changing leader. They're caught between the devil and the deep blue (no pun intended) sea.

[Fitzy.]

That describes the syndrome very well.

Many of those people were never serious about politics. They don't really care what's happened to the country over the last 15 years. It was - still is - a game for them.

My only thing with this take is that I do think there's a genuine position to take that can legitimately question the issue of letting a Tory into your ranks for blatantly political reasons. The party has to stand for something other than just grabbing power. However, that's obviously balanced out by the fact that Starmer is looking at an electorate that rarely trusts Labour to lead and an electoral system that isn't necessarily designed to give Labour a leg-up.

[PaulF]

Would leave the Tories with 13 mps. Might not be that valid . But can we not dream?!!!!!

It makes my questions about the 'pool' of talent they can draw from even more relevant.
How many are in a shadow cabinet?
It might be easier to pick who's not in it

(though I guess if they only get 13, they aren't the official opposition.  Actually if that occurs, what potentially happens? Presumably Deform, the LDs , the greens, none big enough to be an opposition? Do we get a rainbow coalition for an opposition)

[Riquende]

It makes my questions about the 'pool' of talent they can draw from even more relevant.
How many are in a shadow cabinet?
It might be easier to pick who's not in it

(though I guess if they only get 13, they aren't the official opposition.  Actually if that occurs, what potentially happens? Presumably Deform, the LDs , the greens, none big enough to be an opposition? Do we get a rainbow coalition for an opposition)

There are 29 Labour MPs in the Shadow Cabinet (along with 2 Lords). That specific result, if it was borne out, would see the Lib Dems as the Opposition on 44 seats, so they'd have enough if the numbers were broadly similar (the Shadow Cabinet numbers would depend on how Labour set up their Cabinet in Government). But, there would be few official Opposition back-benchers to join the various select committees, so those would probably be a bit more 'rainbow' than usual.

[PaulF]

In that case. Labour should pick a cabinet with one more mi sister than the oppo have MPs. Minister without shadow.

[Riquende]

In that case. Labour should pick a cabinet with one more mi sister than the oppo have MPs. Minister without shadow.

The flaw in that logic is that a Minister/Shadow can have more than one brief. If you've invented some random unnecessary Minister for the sake of it (Secretary of Ice cream van music etc) then one of the Shadows (not the 60s band) can just take over that brief as well and make the odd media comment when needed aside from their 'day job'.

Which does of course mean that an Official Opposition with somehow just 13 MPs could just double or triple up their Shadow roles, but they'd likely be very overworked at that point. They'd also be constituency MPs as well as having to be up across several important topics and ready for interviews at the drop of a hat.

[Yorkykopite]

My only thing with this take is that I do think there's a genuine position to take that can legitimately question the issue of letting a Tory into your ranks for blatantly political reasons. The party has to stand for something other than just grabbing power. However, that's obviously balanced out by the fact that Starmer is looking at an electorate that rarely trusts Labour to lead and an electoral system that isn't necessarily designed to give Labour a leg-up.

I agree. But I was answering a point about something else - which was the attempted stitch-up of the Labour Party canvasser as a racist by Skwawkbox and the other assorted elements of the defeated Far Left.

[oldfordie]

I've ended up with results like that before on the Electoral Calculus site, and I think it leaves the highest profile Tory MPs (and therefore likely leadership candidates) as:

Steve Barclay (threw his hat in the ring 2017 and has had cabinet roles since. Former army officer)
Victoria Atkins (from 'good' Tory stock and Health Sec, despite being married to the head of British Sugar)
Mark Francois (Professional Peter Griffin impersonator when not on TA manoeuvres. Don't let Will Self tell you how small his manhood is)

In fact that list was pulled from a result that saw them with a whopping 24 MPs, so it's possible even those won't make it. I'll have to run these numbers and see who'd remain.

That's interesting Riquende. a list of all the Torys who will be shown the door will give us a clue on what the Tory party make up will be in Parliament after the next GE. as you say, easier to list the Torys who actually survive the election.

[Lusty]

I've ended up with results like that before on the Electoral Calculus site, and I think it leaves the highest profile Tory MPs (and therefore likely leadership candidates) as:

Steve Barclay (threw his hat in the ring 2017 and has had cabinet roles since. Former army officer)
Victoria Atkins (from 'good' Tory stock and Health Sec, despite being married to the head of British Sugar)
Mark Francois (Professional Peter Griffin impersonator when not on TA manoeuvres. Don't let Will Self tell you how small his manhood is)

In fact that list was pulled from a result that saw them with a whopping 24 MPs, so it's possible even those won't make it. I'll have to run these numbers and see who'd remain.

From today's numbers, only 11 will be left.  I think they'd have to bring in a leader from the HoL at that point.

John Lamont
Simon Jupp
Rebecca Harris
Joy Morrissey
John Whittingdale
Gavin Williamson
John Hayes
Pete Wishart
David Mundell
Andrew Bowie
David Duguid

I think they'd have to bring in a leader from the HoL at that point.

[Fitzy.]

I agree. But I was answering a point about something else - which was the attempted stitch-up of the Labour Party canvasser as a racist by Skwawkbox and the other assorted elements of the defeated Far Left.

Fair enough. There an interesting interview on the News Agents podcast with Neil Kinnock (Friday 26 April I think!) where he discusses Corbyn and his approach to backbench politics all the way back in the 80s. Basically implying that he revelled in opposition.

[Yorkykopite]

Fair enough. There an interesting interview on the News Agents podcast with Neil Kinnock (Friday 26 April I think!) where he discusses Corbyn and his approach to backbench politics all the way back in the 80s. Basically implying that he revelled in opposition.

I'll check it out. Opposition to whom though? Never the Tories. Just his own lot.

There must be some deep psychological satisfaction from doing that. There must be. I've never got it myself.

[cornishscouser92]

Elphicke apologises re comments on her husband's conviction

In a statement on Thursday she said she knew her defection would "put a spotlight on the prosecution of my ex-husband".

"The period of 2017 - 2020 was an incredibly stressful and difficult one for me as I learned more about the person I thought I knew. I know it was far harder for the women who had to relive their experiences and give evidence against him," she said.

"I have previously, and do, condemn his behaviour towards other women and towards me. It was right that he was prosecuted and I'm sorry for the comments that I made about his victims."

“It is vital that women can have confidence in the criminal justice system and our rates of prosecution and conviction are far too low as a country.

“Keir Starmer’s mission to halve male violence against women and girls is critical and I wanted to take the opportunity to express my explicit support for Labour colleagues working to realise it.”

[Circa1892]

With a very big leap in the council elections toward independent and greens. I think Labour can afford to be a bit braver now. There's appetite for it.

Nope. The leap towards 'Independent' and Greens are in predominantly Labour areas. It's the classic mistake where they turn a 10k majority into a 20k majority and lose out on the marginals.

[filopastry]

Nope. The leap towards 'Independent' and Greens are in predominantly Labour areas. It's the classic mistake where they turn a 10k majority into a 20k majority and lose out on the marginals.

Labour's vote looks potentially a lot more efficient now in terms of turning votes into seats compared to previously when as you say it was basically racking up big leads in cities and university towns, but struggling for breadth a bit beyond that.

Don't get me wrong though, you would obviously preferring to be doing as well with both sets of voters, but that is difficult on a lot of the social/authoritarian issues now.

[Fitzy.]

I'll check it out. Opposition to whom though? Never the Tories. Just his own lot.

There must be some deep psychological satisfaction from doing that. There must be. I've never got it myself.

Kinnock basically said he left him alone when he led the party as he just rebelled all the time - waste of time.

[killer-heels]

Elphicke apologises re comments on her husband's conviction

In a statement on Thursday she said she knew her defection would "put a spotlight on the prosecution of my ex-husband".

"The period of 2017 - 2020 was an incredibly stressful and difficult one for me as I learned more about the person I thought I knew. I know it was far harder for the women who had to relive their experiences and give evidence against him," she said.

"I have previously, and do, condemn his behaviour towards other women and towards me. It was right that he was prosecuted and I'm sorry for the comments that I made about his victims."

“It is vital that women can have confidence in the criminal justice system and our rates of prosecution and conviction are far too low as a country.

“Keir Starmer’s mission to halve male violence against women and girls is critical and I wanted to take the opportunity to express my explicit support for Labour colleagues working to realise it.”

This was my issue with her joining. Not so much her politics as on politics alone, its a blow to the Tories by political watchers and that she isnt standing again. The issue however was her comments towards her husbands victims.

Clearly the advisors around Starmer became giddy with excitement about striking a blow at PMQ's. On Politics Live apparent the Labour Chief Whip raised concerns around this decision. This statement just proves that not enough consideration was taken over the optics of this.

[Elmo!]

From today's numbers, only 11 will be left.  I think they'd have to bring in a leader from the HoL at that point.

John Lamont
Simon Jupp
Rebecca Harris
Joy Morrissey
John Whittingdale
Gavin Williamson
John Hayes
Pete Wishart
David Mundell
Andrew Bowie
David Duguid

I think they'd have to bring in a leader from the HoL at that point.

Peter Wishart is SNP, not Tory.

It's depressing that it's the Scottish Tories disproportionately surviving, but their seats in Scotland are all battles with the SNP with Labour nowhere near so with both parties not doing great it might allow the Tories to hold.

[Lusty]

Peter Wishart is SNP, not Tory.

It's depressing that it's the Scottish Tories disproportionately surviving, but their seats in Scotland are all battles with the SNP with Labour nowhere near so with both parties not doing great it might allow the Tories to hold.

Ah yes.  He got sorted in amongst the Tories in the list I was looking at, my mistake.

So only 10 Tories retaining their seats

[PaulF]

Impersonators are going to be fucked.  No goveey gove. No brexit bulldog. Just a dozen tories to ape.

Sadly I suspect they'll win north of 50 seats.

[CornerFlag]

Honestly, I get what people are saying, but I feel like the last two pages have been absolutely crazy. Having a character like Elphicke not only being admitted into Labour but lauded just feels absolutely wrong. The same benefits for Labour would have been gotten if they'd have said 'no' and she left the Tories and sat as an independent, given how high the party is polling.

The story here in the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/09/i-understand-why-she-moved-dover-voters-on-natalie-elphicke-switching-parties) speaks of people in that constituency of hers being loyal to the person she is, not the party she's with, so at least in that sense it's wholly pointless as she isn't standing at the next GE anyway.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25831/natalie_elphicke/dover/votes

"Consistently voted for more restrictive regulation of trade union activity
Voted against greater regulation of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to extract shale gas
Consistently voted against improving environmental water quality
Consistently voted against improving air quality
Consistently voted against improving biodiversity
Generally voted against measures to prevent climate change
Consistently voted against laws to promote equality and human rights
Voted for mass surveillance of people’s communications and activities
Consistently voted for authorising criminal conduct by undercover officers and covert sources
Consistently voted for making it easier to remove someone's British citizenship
Consistently voted against landlords paying for the costs of building safety works
Consistently voted against stronger fire safety measures
Consistently voted for restricting the scope of legal aid

Just a delight.

[west_london_red]

Honestly, I get what people are saying, but I feel like the last two pages have been absolutely crazy. Having a character like Elphicke not only being admitted into Labour but lauded just feels absolutely wrong. The same benefits for Labour would have been gotten if they'd have said 'no' and she left the Tories and sat as an independent, given how high the party is polling.

The story here in the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/09/i-understand-why-she-moved-dover-voters-on-natalie-elphicke-switching-parties) speaks of people in that constituency of hers being loyal to the person she is, not the party she's with, so at least in that sense it's wholly pointless as she isn't standing at the next GE anyway.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25831/natalie_elphicke/dover/votes

"Consistently voted for more restrictive regulation of trade union activity
Voted against greater regulation of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to extract shale gas
Consistently voted against improving environmental water quality
Consistently voted against improving air quality
Consistently voted against improving biodiversity
Generally voted against measures to prevent climate change
Consistently voted against laws to promote equality and human rights
Voted for mass surveillance of people’s communications and activities
Consistently voted for authorising criminal conduct by undercover officers and covert sources
Consistently voted for making it easier to remove someone's British citizenship
Consistently voted against landlords paying for the costs of building safety works
Consistently voted against stronger fire safety measures
Consistently voted for restricting the scope of legal aid

Just a delight.

Those are definitely the kind of policies I look for in a politician…

I really do hope Starmer and co are not beginning to believe their own hype and get complacent to the point where they start taking those on the Centre Left (never mind those who are actually on the ‘proper’ Left) for granted or that they have no where else to go because they might find out that that isn’t as true as they think.

[west_london_red]

Impersonators are going to be fucked.  No goveey gove. No brexit bulldog. Just a dozen tories to ape.

Sadly I suspect they'll win north of 50 seats.

The likes of Truss, Badenoch and Braverman are in safe seats and will provide plenty of material for years to come.

[Yorkykopite]

Kinnock basically said he left him alone when he led the party as he just rebelled all the time - waste of time.

Thanks for the tip Fitzy. That was a great podcast. Neil Kinnock is one of Labour's greatest-ever figures I think. Got a bit teary half way thru mind.

[PaulF]

The likes of Truss, Badenoch and Braverman are in safe seats and will provide plenty of material for years to come.

Wow. Do we put all our idiots in one constituency and let Truss run there?

[TepidT2O]

Thanks for the tip Fitzy. That was a great podcast. Neil Kinnock is one of Labour's greatest-ever figures I think. Got a bit teary half way thru mind.

Didn’t we all? When they played him a speech he did in the 80s it was a goosebumps moment

[TepidT2O]

she's an unrepentant racist and bigot, no way.

just cos there's one more nasty dickhead in labour since yesterday doesn't mean there should be a second

Well she’d have to repent. I think you’ve got to be very careful using the disciplinary process for sectarian reasons though