Yet another own goal' – EU points to Brexit breakdown after UK election
European diplomats and politicians fear hung parliament and weak prime minister are ‘disaster’ that threaten negotiations
Daniel Boffey and Jon Henley
Friday 9 June 2017 09.21 BST
The EU will force a humiliated Theresa May to explain her intentions at a face-to-face meeting in Brussels as senior diplomats and politicians warned the hung parliament resulting from the UK election was an “own goal” and a “disaster” that hugely increases the chance of Brexit talks breaking down.
The result is likely to delay the point at which Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has someone with whom to negotiate. Sources said a meeting of the European council on 22 June was the EU27’s new deadline for wanting to know the prime minister’s plans.
Donald Tusk, the council president, reminded London on Friday that while the start of Brexit negotiations may now be delayed because of the election result, the date by which they must be concluded remains fixed: with article 50 already triggered, the clock is ticking on the two years allowed under the Lisbon treaty.
“We don’t know when Brexit talks start,” Tusk tweeted. “We know when they must end. Do your best to avoid a ‘no deal’ as result of ‘no negotiations.” Barnier also tweeted that “the timetable and EU positions are clear” and Brexit should start “when the UK is ready”.
The European commission president, Jean Claude Juncker, confirmed that the bloc was ready to start negotiations, but he feared it would not be easy for May to form a stable government.
“I hope that the British will be able to form as soon as possible a stable government,” Juncker said. “I don’t think that things now have become easier but we are ready.”
Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s Brexit representative, described the result as “yet another own goal – after Cameron now May”, adding: “I thought surrealism was a Belgian invention.”
Verhofstadt said the outcome would “make already complex negotiations even more complicated. I hope the UK will soon have a stable government to start negotiations. This is not only about the UK, but also about the future of Europe.”
It had been hoped that officials from both sides would have informal talks next week over the logistics of the negotiations, before formal talks began on the week starting 19 June.
With the prime minister needing to both seek to form a minority or coalition government, as well as potentially revise her goals for the talks in the light of the election result, the original timetable seems unrealistic to officials in Brussels.
Günther Oettinger, the German member of the European commission, said: “We need a government that can act. With a weak negotiating partner, there’s the danger than the negotiations will turn out badly for both sides … I expect more more uncertainty now.”
One senior diplomat said of Friday morning’s result: “We want a deal. We are professionals, we have a mandate to get a deal, and we want a deal more than anyone. But we don’t even know who we are negotiating with.”.
A second EU source said: “We are ready. The ball is in the UK court”. Manfred Weber, the leader of the powerful conservative EPP group in the European parliament, tweeted that the Brexit clock was ticking and Britain “needs a government that is ready to negotiate, and fast”.
The EU had, until now, believed it understood that May wanted to take the UK out of both the single market and the customs union, but in the early hours of Friday morning the Brexit secretary, David Davis, suggested the election result could prompt a rethink.
Davis said of the Tory’s manifesto pledges on the single market and customs union: “That’s what it [the election] was about, that’s what we put in front of the people, we’ll see tomorrow whether they’ve accepted that or not. That will be their decision.”
The French prime minister, Edouard Philippe, was quick to scotch any suggestion that Britain might perform a U-turn and ask to stay in the EU – something that would need EU agreement – but he did expect Brexit negotiations to be “long and complex”.
Germany’s European affairs minister, Michael Roth, said that time was tight until the expiry of a two-year window to reach a negotiated deal: “We should not waste any time,” he said.
Pierre Moscovici, the French European commissioner, said the result would affect the negotiations but declined to be drawn on whether the EU executive hoped Britain might ask to stay. He said the timetable for leaving in 2019 was not “optional” but fixed in treaty law.
The Czech prime minister, Bohuslav Sobotka, said on Friday Britain should form a new government quickly, as months have already been lost in its divorce talks with the European Union.
British voters denied Theresa May the stronger mandate she had sought to conduct talks with the EU on leaving the bloc. “I only hope that it will not take too long (to form a government) because we have already lost several months from the time that Britain officially announced Brexit in March,” Sobotka told Czech Television.
“But now it will be necessary to wait for who will form a government and what this government will bring to negotiations over Brexit.”
Former Finnish premier Alexander Stubb tweeted: “Looks like we might need a time-out in the Brexit negotiations. Time for everyone to regroup.”
Andrius Kubilius, a former conservative prime minister of Lithuania, who sits on his country’s Brexit committee, said the British government’s need to keep an unstable parliamentary alliance together was a threat to progress on talks.
“I think it will be much messier now and negotiations will be much more difficult”, he said. “That’s an early thought but it depends on the internal decisions of Britain.” Kubilius added: “I think there will be a greater demand for a softer Brexit now and that is to be welcomed.”
Andrew Duff, a former Liberal Democrat MEP, and visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre thinktank, said the result could lead to the UK seeking to stay within the customs union.
He said: “May won’t be strong enough to get rid of the three Brexiteers now – David Davis, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson and Liam Fox. The only concession the pro-EU people might get from the prime minister would be for the UK to stay in the customs union so that we don’t end up like Turkey. And if that happens she would be able to get rid of Liam Fox, because there wouldn’t be any purpose for a trade secretary.”
Gianni Pitella, leader of the socialist group in the European parliament, said: “The British people just punished the clear incompetence of Theresa May. She tried to gamble on the shoulders of the UK and EU citizens. She wanted the UK to have a stronger and harder negotiating position but has the chaos of a hung parliament.”
Most European capitals believed May would be returned to government with some form of majority – and expected that to lead to at best difficult talks, and at worst a breakdown of the negotiations, possibly as early as this summer.
May last month accused Brussels and the EU27 of “issuing threats” against Britain in an attempt “to affect the result of the election”. In fact, continental capitals would mostly prefer the government to have a strong majority since it would then feel confident enough to make concessions.
The smaller the majority in Westminster, “the more likely it is that the government will run into difficulty with MPs”, a London-based Benelux diplomat said. “The negotiators will be constantly watching their backs. It’s not a recipe for good talks.”
On Thursday night, Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister tweeted: “Could be messy for the United Kingdom in the years ahead. One mess risks following another. Price to be paid for lack of true leadership.”
Sophia in ‘t Veld, the Dutch MEP who set up the European parliament’s taskforce examining the UK’s treatment of EU nationals, tweeted: “Cameron gambled, lost. May gambled, lost. Tory party beginning to look like a casino.
There are several clear bones of contention in the negotiations. The EU has made clear it expects “sufficient progress” to be made on the divorce deal – including the size of the UK’s exit bill, citizens’ rights and the border in Ireland – before it will begin to discuss a future trade deal.
Predicting “the row of the summer”, Davis insisted in May that Britain wanted to “see everything packaged up together, and that’s what we’re going to do”. He has also said the UK could “walk away” if confronted with the €100bn settlement the EU is said to be considering.
The UK government, while promising it would make a “generous offer”, could also be headed for conflict with the EU27 over the rights of the 3.5 million EU nationals who have made their lives in the UK and the 1.2 million Britons settled on the continent.
In detailed position papers published last month, the EU said it expected the European court of justice to have full jurisdiction over any citizens’ rights disputes, and the European commission to be able to monitor UK compliance. Neither stipulation would be acceptable to Brexit hardliners
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/uk-shock-election-result-may-hamper-brexit-talks-eu-leaders-warn
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