Topic: Winning Title #19*

[Sharado]

Agree with the wider point - ie, win them and we won't need to do anywhere near the same in the second half, but I don't think that's an easy run. As LovelyCushionedHeader says - the West Ham game isn't happening then, and the others are all increased in difficulty because of our WCC commitments and the intensity of the period. Said it earlier in the threat, but from the Palace game to the 2nd of January we play 16 games of footy, 42% of a league season, in a 5.5 week period.

Really hope we can get Shaq back and fit for this period. He could be a great option to use against Brighton, Everton and Watford - maintaining creativity and a goal threat while giving Mo or one of the other forwards a bit of a break.

Our squad depth is key here, we're going to need to intelligently use Gomez and Milner (or maybe just Milner) to get some rest into Robbo and Trent. Ox, Keita, Lallana will get a fair share of game time in midfield I think, and we'll see Origi for sure starting games - maybe Brewster too. Obviously not all at once, but you can definitely see the Watford and Brighton games being seen as opportunities to do a bit more rotation than one or two. Wolves will always be a tough, tight match. The Everton one should be in that Watford/Brighton bracket - but they're a bunch of pricks who play the two versus us as if their lives depend on it, foregoing the rest of their own season.

There are opportunities for big amounts of rest, potentially, though.

The Villa game is clearly going to be the under 23s and that's it. The likes of Elliot, Brewster and Jones might not even make it and would be in Qatar.

The semi final of the WCC is going to be against someone a scratch/reserve side could see off pretty easily so I wouldn't expect too many of the likes of Salah/VVD/Mane etc. to play full games there. The final I expect we'll see a first team.

Additionally, beat Napoli at home and the final group game V salzburg is a dead rubber so we can put out who we like [we have to beat Napoli first, like].

As you point out, we should probably see some rotation for Brighton and probably Watford. Whilst Everton and Wolves would cause us some issues we're fortunately at home for both of them, so you'd feel like we could rotate one of the front 3, or certainly some of the midfield if necessary and still have enough.

[wige]

There are opportunities for big amounts of rest, potentially, though.

The Villa game is clearly going to be the under 23s and that's it. The likes of Elliot, Brewster and Jones might not even make it and would be in Qatar.

The semi final of the WCC is going to be against someone a scratch/reserve side could see off pretty easily so I wouldn't expect too many of the likes of Salah/VVD/Mane etc. to play full games there. The final I expect we'll see a first team.

Additionally, beat Napoli at home and the final group game V salzburg is a dead rubber so we can put out who we like [we have to beat Napoli first, like].

As you point out, we should probably see some rotation for Brighton and probably Watford. Whilst Everton and Wolves would cause us some issues we're fortunately at home for both of them, so you'd feel like we could rotate one of the front 3, or certainly some of the midfield if necessary and still have enough.

Yeah, agree with all of this. Just think all of that, the rotated teams, disrupted preparation, intensity of fixtures, flights to Qatar, different competitions means the individual fixtures become harder than they look on paper.

Leicester away on Boxing day could be a crucial one, especially with their fixtures in the build up pointing towards close to maximum points. If we draw one and win the rest, and they win them all - then they play us looking to cut that lead to 3.

Long way to go. Can't help myself overthinking every possible angle

[Mighty_Red]

Robbo has withdrawn from the Scotland squad due to an injury. Hope it is just something minor. Scotland have nothing to play for in any case.

[Sharado]

Yeah, agree with all of this. Just think all of that, the rotated teams, disrupted preparation, intensity of fixtures, flights to Qatar, different competitions means the individual fixtures become harder than they look on paper.

Leicester away on Boxing day could be a crucial one, especially with their fixtures in the build up pointing towards close to maximum points. If we draw one and win the rest, and they win them all - then they play us looking to cut that lead to 3.

Long way to go. Can't help myself overthinking every possible angle

That does depend on Leicester winning every game though, which would be 9 games in a row [a seriously impressive run of form if so] and it would also include a trip to Man City for them.

With that said, Leicester away is the big one in this block [which probably runs, in my head at least, till Sheff united at home on the 2nd Jan - FA cup weekend week after]. City was clearly the big one in the last block.

Our January is pretty tough with united at home and spurs and wolves away. If we're dusting ourselves down at 8 points clear or better as we head to FA cup weekend we'll be in rude health heading to 2020.

[Charlie Adams fried egg]

Robbo has withdrawn from the Scotland squad due to an injury. Hope it is just something minor. Scotland have nothing to play for in any case.

They have to give a reason.
Hopefully its a fergiestrain, they tend to clear up in time for next league game.

[wige]

That does depend on Leicester winning every game though, which would be 9 games in a row [a seriously impressive run of form if so] and it would also include a trip to Man City for them.

With that said, Leicester away is the big one in this block [which probably runs, in my head at least, till Sheff united at home on the 2nd Jan - FA cup weekend week after]. City was clearly the big one in the last block.

Our January is pretty tough with united at home and spurs and wolves away. If we're dusting ourselves down at 8 points clear or better as we head to FA cup weekend we'll be in rude health heading to 2020.

If we're 8 points clear at FA cup weekend I don't think we'll be stopped. It would take a brutal impact from injuries and fatigue at that stage. Gaps between games will return to "normal" - we'll hopefully have the option of using some of the League Cup lads in the early FA cup fixtures AND there's the two week winter break in early Feb.

Agree with the Sheff U game being the end of this block, and that January is tough. Spurs away is never an easy game, and we know United will play 6-4-0 at Anfield and play on the counter.

Didn't/don't know the details of Leicester's fixtures, and that City game will obviously be a big one. I'll be surprised too if they win all 9.

[redk84]

Robbo has withdrawn from the Scotland squad due to an injury. Hope it is just something minor. Scotland have nothing to play for in any case.

I hope its a fake injury. He doesn't seem the type, nor does Klopp so yeah minor one for him and Salah hopefully

As you point out, we should probably see some rotation for Brighton and probably Watford. Whilst Everton and Wolves would cause us some issues we're fortunately at home for both of them, so you'd feel like we could rotate one of the front 3, or certainly some of the midfield if necessary and still have enough.

Think most of the rotation will be done from the bench if we can be at a comfortable point in the match.
I see that he is liking the Gomez/Milner subs late on and also Ox/Origi too as relief for front 3 (dont see Brewster getting a look-in just yet) so would expect that is the way he will go and will urge us to "rest" in game if we are say 2 goals up in the 60th. Just by dominating the ball and keeping it tight.
Considering he usually starts with a strong lineup, I reckon this is what he'll do.

Could be wrong tho, is a unique season with the CWC n all

[markedasred]

Apart from the mathematical gymnastics going on in my head....

The narrative season is in full flow. Now along with Mane being a diver we are being gifted the title by VAR.

Now referees are wank, and influenced by the general opinion of the public/media imo. Knowingly or not......a player that has been accused of throwing in a dirty tackle/dive and has been highlighted by media/fans as doing so is more likely to be punished where he wouldn't have been before.

I may not have gone back to look at all the evidence to be able to put out there to back this up but I am pretty sure this is a thing. Not just against our team, Zaha had it last season too and City's tactical fouling last season was ignored whereas all of a sudden they are getting twice as many yellows now. Not a coincidence imo.

My point is

Best thing for us is to not let games get to that late stage where it can be decided by a goal for or against. Which we have done quite a lot in recent weeks

I hope we can go out there and more often than not just beat teams comfortably, even if its just until the end of December, like the way we have in the past and how City usually do in the first half of games. The amount of points we have on the board and other things going on below us will hopefully just ease the desperation for us to fail and have it transition into acceptance that we are going to go on to do this.

The diehard bitters out there will carry on but who cares what they think anyway.

I mean im sure Klopp wants us to win every game comfortably and we usually seem to get better around this point every season until Jan/Feb atleast so lets hope that trend continues.

I believe some of the art of Klopp is in not getting players to over-exert in any single match if possible. We did that with the initial heavy metal football, and it looked amazing, but it led to injuries and uneven scores, as it is not an every week, let alone twice a week style that can be sustained. What we do now, with great stamina after 80 minutes is a winning formula.

[Sharado]

I believe some of the art of Klopp is in not getting players to over-exert in any single match if possible. We did that with the initial heavy metal football, and it looked amazing, but it led to injuries and uneven scores, as it is not an every week, let alone twice a week style that can be sustained. What we do now, with great stamina after 80 minutes is a winning formula.

I think what we're good at as well is absolutely draining other teams mentally. We offer so many problems on the pitch that it must be incredibly hard to cope for a full 90+ extra time [hence so many late goals]. It doesn't always mean we have to over exert ourselves physically [though Trent and Robertson probably do] but just imagine you've got to deal with a front 3 where you know if you leave one alone for any period of time they'll hurt you, then you've two full backs stretching you all over the pitch and bombing forward to the edge of your box. you've got Wijnaldum who just always seems to use the ball well. Henderson even taking people on at the byline now, apparently. And a defensive midfielder that can rocket in a 25 yarder [this before Oxlade Chamberlain if fully back for 'the big games too']. That is a fucking hell of a lot to cope with.

[kaesarsosei]

The big big thing about City I have not seen mentioned in recent pages talking about their chances of going on a similar run to last season - the reasons why they are not as good this season have not gone away suddenly after our game somehow.

Laporte is still out to Feb/March. Otamendi is still shit if he isn't playing alongside Laporte with Fernandinho in front of him. Sane is still out for the season. David Silva has still lost a step. They haven't a single reliable LB despite spending £200m on fullbacks. There is just as big a drop off from Aguero, Sterling, B. Silva to Mahrez/Jesus as we have with our front three to Origi (last season the drop off was to Sane instead). They are very light in MF - LFC fans are having arguments about getting Keita/AOC into the team, and with Milner as a very able deputy, whereas City really only have 3-4 options.

These things are all still true and why if anything City will drop more points than us before mid-Dec. The second half of Dec and in January I can see them at least keep pace with us or even gain, but I think the damage will have been done by then.

[Crosby Nick]

The big big thing about City I have not seen mentioned in recent pages talking about their chances of going on a similar run to last season - the reasons why they are not as good this season have not gone away suddenly after our game somehow.

Laporte is still out to Feb/March. Otamendi is still shit if he isn't playing alongside Laporte with Fernandinho in front of him. Sane is still out for the season. David Silva has still lost a step. They haven't a single reliable LB despite spending £200m on fullbacks. There is just as big a drop off from Aguero, Sterling, B. Silva to Mahrez/Jesus as we have with our front three to Origi (last season the drop off was to Sane instead). They are very light in MF - LFC fans are having arguments about getting Keita/AOC into the team, and with Milner as a very able deputy, whereas City really only have 3-4 options.

These things are all still true and why if anything City will drop more points than us before mid-Dec. The second half of Dec and in January I can see them at least keep pace with us or even gain, but I think the damage will have been done by then.

It looks that way when looking at the fixtures. What we don’t want is to give them hope and build up a head of steam. You could argue it either way but maybe it helps us that we do t play them til later this season (end of March is it?) because their win against us in January helped galvanise them (I know they lost at Newcastle but we’re they the only dropped points in the second half of the season).

The flip side of course is if we don’t pull away from them further than we are now it will make the last couple of months tense with City away becoming huge and that tricky looking last three games for us.

So long to go until then of course, no point stressing about it hugely when all logic says we’ll co to it being great. Bloody international breaks!

[BassTunedToRed]

The City match is the first week of April, match 32.

[markedasred]

The City match is the first week of April, match 32.

Just a week or two too early to ask Pep for the guard of honour. Pity.

[BassTunedToRed]

Just a week or two too early to ask Pep for the guard of honour. Pity.

Not if we tack on a nine point lead every 12 games on average

[Barefoot Doctor]

What's crazy to me is that, at this early stage, it feels all but certain that City will finish on a lower points total than last season.

They've dropped 11 points in 12 games, but could only afford to drop 5 points in their next 26 games to hit 98 points again. Could they do it? Maybe - I'd certainly have them as favourites in every game they play (probably even against us in the return) but the odds of them getting 73 points out the 78 still available seems really slim. At this rate, it'd be surprising if they didn't drop at least five points by New Year.

Probably too early to be making predictions, but it feels like 90+ points wins the league for us - barring a truly phenomenal run from City.

[mrantarctica]

What's crazy to me is that, at this early stage, it feels all but certain that City will finish on a lower points total than last season.

They've dropped 11 points in 12 games, but could only afford to drop 5 points in their next 26 games to hit 98 points again. Could they do it? Maybe - I'd certainly have them as favourites in every game they play (probably even against us in the return) but the odds of them getting 73 points out the 78 still available seems really slim. At this rate, it'd be surprising if they didn't drop at least five points by New Year.

Probably too early to be making predictions, but it feels like 90+ points wins the league for us - barring a truly phenomenal run from City.

to be honest City came and made a real go of the match. Considering they certainly created enough in 90 mins to get something from the game against us and we haven't lost at home in over 2 years, and they had perhaps 5-6 players missing from action, I would say that they are absolute favourites to win all their games - as they should be. That's why they spent all the money assembling their squad.

It's far too early in the season to make any useful predictions other than roughly who will be battling it out for what. Currently, I would say that mathematically it is us, Chelsea, Leicester and Man City for the title and the top 4 as well. Beyond that there's not a lot of separation between 5th and 16th. What seems clear is that the current top 4 teams have a pretty big gap from the rest which means that it is going to be an uphill battle for the likes of Arsenal, Man U, Spurs or anyone else to secure a top 4 finish and get into the CL.

The reason it is pointless making predictions right now is that the league can change very dramatically over the space of just a few games. We saw Sterling put in that snidey late challenge on VVD. Had that caused any serious injury, or if we were left without 3-4 more of our first team players (like Man City) then I think we could easily drop points in the same way that anyone else could. Similarly, other teams can go on good runs of form or the opposite which changes how things look too. After all, last season we built up a significant lead in the league only to see that crumble away after some extraordinary form by City.

The best we can do is focus one game at a time, and really hope that we get lucky in the injury and suspension department, and then take a look at how things are when we hit the last 5 games or so.

[Sharado]

The thing I would say about City in light of the 2 posts above - they definitely raised their game for us, going forward at least. One of my oldest mates is a city fan and he reckon's they've been a bit off in a few of their games including some they won [his view was they got away with one big time V Southampton, and he also said everyone leaving the Etihad was proper gutted when Mane scored for us v villa - which I think we can all enjoy]. The Wolves game, for example, I only listened to a bit of the first half on the radio but you just knew something was up with them that day. You'd have to think that's going to happen a few more times before the season, maybe even the year, is out.

[Dench57]

Already got my eye on finishing unbeaten and also breaking City's record if I'm honest. Completely negate everything they've done over the last few years.

[PoetryInMotion]

What's crazy to me is that, at this early stage, it feels all but certain that City will finish on a lower points total than last season.

They've dropped 11 points in 12 games, but could only afford to drop 5 points in their next 26 games to hit 98 points again. Could they do it? Maybe - I'd certainly have them as favourites in every game they play (probably even against us in the return) but the odds of them getting 73 points out the 78 still available seems really slim. At this rate, it'd be surprising if they didn't drop at least five points by New Year.

Probably too early to be making predictions, but it feels like 90+ points wins the league for us - barring a truly phenomenal run from City.

I'm expecting them to pick their form a bit and hit 92-93 points. 94 at max. If we match last season's total or exceed it, we're winning the title. We're capable of doing that even if we lose to City in the return leg. However, even a draw in that fixture would be massive for us. If we manage a draw there, it will be over.

[Crosby Nick]

I'm expecting them to pick their form a bit and hit 92-93 points. 94 at max. If we match last season's total or exceed it, we're winning the title. We're capable of doing that even if we lose to City in the return leg. However, even a draw in that fixture would be massive for us. If we manage a draw there, it will be over.

I’d expect them to be capable of going on a bit run in the second half of the season. But given they can only 103 from here max they’d have to be incredible to match last season’s tally. We would still have to go some to match our tally from last season too but we at least have a bit more leeway to get there.

[Andy G]

Already got my eye on finishing unbeaten and also breaking City's record if I'm honest. Completely negate everything they've done over the last few years.

Don't start talking like that.  A league title will suffice if we can manage it!

[Red Beret]

The thing I would say about City in light of the 2 posts above - they definitely raised their game for us, going forward at least. One of my oldest mates is a city fan and he reckon's they've been a bit off in a few of their games including some they won [his view was they got away with one big time V Southampton, and he also said everyone leaving the Etihad was proper gutted when Mane scored for us v villa - which I think we can all enjoy]. The Wolves game, for example, I only listened to a bit of the first half on the radio but you just knew something was up with them that day. You'd have to think that's going to happen a few more times before the season, maybe even the year, is out.

Tbf we've been off for a fair few games ourselves.  But with them, it's hard for a club, both fans and players, to remain mentally strong when endless money gifts you amazing players and silverware.

When you have to fight every inch of the way, against the flow of crap decisions and media bias, it certainly builds character. Rocky 3 stuff.

The ploy now will be to simply de-legitimise a potential title win. It's a shame that so many fans hate them, but hate us more, because it's a narrative they will happily buy into.

[redk84]

Im glad we play Palace before they play Chelsea

Great incentive to put pressure on them
Always prefer playing first

[LallanaInPyjamas]

What's crazy to me is that, at this early stage, it feels all but certain that City will finish on a lower points total than last season.

Probably too early to be making predictions, but it feels like 90+ points wins the league for us - barring a truly phenomenal run from City.

I agree they'll fall short of the previous two seasons, fundamentally because they're an inferior side and they've dropped more points at this stage than any Guardiola side, but let's remember they won 18 games in a row in 2017/18, and their last 14 games last season.

65 points from 78 takes them to 90 - they're still capable of that. That's 21W 2D 3L. Barring any more major injuries I'd imagine they'll hit late 80's/early 90's...unless we just keep winning every single game until March/April and they start resting players for the CL 

[cipher]

Beat Palace and this means City/Chelsea will be one of these point combinations behind us after their game against each other:

City Win
City - 9
Chelsea - 11

Chelsea Win
Chelsea - 8
City - 12

Draw
Chelsea - 10
City - 11

My preference is for a tie first and Chelsea win second.  A double digit lead over those two after 13 games would be bonkers. 

[LallanaInPyjamas]

Beat Palace and this means City/Chelsea will be one of these point combinations behind us after their game against each other:

City Win
City - 9
Chelsea - 11

Chelsea Win
Chelsea - 8
City - 12

Draw
Chelsea - 10
City - 11

My preference is for a tie first and Chelsea win second.  A double digit lead over those two after 13 games would be bonkers.

No chance mate. I'd prefer the Chelsea win all day. Not that they will - though I do expect them to provide a real scare.

[cipher]

No chance mate. I'd prefer the Chelsea win all day. Not that they will - though I do expect them to provide a real scare.

Fully understand that, both of those are still a good result especially since City are losing 2 or 3 points in those two scenarios.

It's crazy to say it, but at this point the title is pretty much only available to four teams.  While us and City are obviously the favorites I'd love to see one or two of the other teams drop back by the end of the half way mark.   Based on the schedules and quality of competition, I wouldn't be surprised to see the following order come the start of January:

1 - Liverpool
2 - Leicester
3 - Man City
4 - Chelsea

Leicester have played most of the big teams, have no European commitments, and have a pretty easy schedule until they play us and City at the end of December. 

City are entering their toughest stretch and while they are better than everyone they will come up against, the increased competition alongside the injuries which have impacted their defensive solidity will likely see them dropping points they likely wouldn't. 

Chelsea are playing well, but I can't see them keeping this level up the entire year.  They will likely fall back before the others in list.

Its going to be a wild 6 week ride once this international break is over!

[Wingman]

Beat Palace and this means City/Chelsea will be one of these point combinations behind us after their game against each other:

City Win
City - 9
Chelsea - 11

Chelsea Win
Chelsea - 8
City - 12

Draw
Chelsea - 10
City - 11

My preference is for a tie first and Chelsea win second.  A double digit lead over those two after 13 games would be bonkers. 

Let’s beat Palace and see what happens

[Lynx the saucy mynx]

Already got my eye on finishing unbeaten and also breaking City's record if I'm honest. Completely negate everything they've done over the last few years.

Let's get the silver Premier League trophy before aiming for the gold one.

[Bob Sacamano]

No chance mate. I'd prefer the Chelsea win all day. Not that they will - though I do expect them to provide a real scare.

Absolutely.

Chelsea are really good, but if they overtake us it means we've collapsed.

Whereas we can have a really good finish to the season and still be overtaken by City because they are more than capable of winning 15 + in a row.

[kennedy81]

I'll sleep easier when we have the trip to Leicester out of the way on Boxing Day. First game back from Qatar, which won't be easy.

All the pressure on City now though. A 9 point gap can easily turn to 11, or 12, and they haven't been consistent at all yet this season.

The way I see it though is that we have to win 60 more points. That's a lot of games, so slow and steady and just keep focused on the next game.

[royhendo]

Just saw the pre-match stuff from SKY's coverage on Sunday. Mourinho saying it's over if Liverpool win, bar squad depth and injury caveats. Keane replying to Souness's "anything can happen in football" line with "we never chased anyone as good as this".

Amazing to see a row of cast iron winners debate whether it's even possible for us to be caught.

See if it wasn't for this World Club Championship business?

[CraigDS]

I'll sleep easier when we have the trip to Leicester out of the way on Boxing Day. First game back from Qatar, which won't be easy.

We'll no doubt fly back right after the final so will be back in the very early hours of the 22nd. Gives us 4 days back in the country before the Leicester game so the trip away shouldn't hurt us.

Plus Leicester play Everton on the 18th and City on the 21st (at same time we play) so not like they won't have some tough games too.

[dudleyred]

Just saw the pre-match stuff from SKY's coverage on Sunday. Mourinho saying it's over if Liverpool win, bar squad depth and injury caveats. Keane replying to Souness's "anything can happen in football" line with "we never chased anyone as good as this".

Amazing to see a row of cast iron winners debate whether it's even possible for us to be caught.

See if it wasn't for this World Club Championship business?

incredible isnt it!

With the club world cup i really feel it'll be fine. Yes we postpone one match but the gaps between matches are ok.

I see it that if we go over there and win it it'll give the players a boost and remind them of that winning feeling....will encourage them not to let go of the grip on the league. The only tinge of disappointment is the first game back being away at Leicester. That said thats looking like being the toughest game regardless and would never have been an away banker

[Dench57]

tough games

Leicester play Everton

[Scouser-Tommy]

See if it wasn't for this World Club Championship business?

I understand what you're saying, however another piece of silverware could be a nice little boost just before the new year.

A trophy that we have never won before either, which many have pointed out.

[wige]

I understand what you're saying, however another piece of silverware could be a nice little boost just before the new year.

A trophy that we have never won before either, which many have pointed out.

Yep. Think the players will want that title of "World Champions" - as do I.

Will solidify the feeling that we're the number one team about and give a nice boost ahead of the second half of the season.

[jepovic]

Just saw the pre-match stuff from SKY's coverage on Sunday. Mourinho saying it's over if Liverpool win, bar squad depth and injury caveats. Keane replying to Souness's "anything can happen in football" line with "we never chased anyone as good as this".

Amazing to see a row of cast iron winners debate whether it's even possible for us to be caught.

See if it wasn't for this World Club Championship business?

I don't agree at all. We haven't even played a third of the season, and it would be over?

Fact is, in several key areas we have very limited depth. CB and midfield are ok, but in the attack and full back there is a huge dropoff from our starters to our backups. A couple of injuries could really hurt us. That's not criticism of Klopp, btw, it's just not realistic to have another Trent or Salah on the bench when most top teams would love to have one of them. ManC's defense is a good example of how a couple of injuries can hurt even a seemingly rock solid team.

This is also why I hope Klopp dares to be very cynical about all other competitions than PL and perhaps CL. Only use players if it's good for their form, to maximize our PL chances.

[royhendo]

I don't agree at all. We haven't even played a third of the season, and it would be over?

Fact is, in several key areas we have very limited depth. CB and midfield are ok, but in the attack and full back there is a huge dropoff from our starters to our backups. A couple of injuries could really hurt us. That's not criticism of Klopp, btw, it's just not realistic to have another Trent or Salah on the bench when most top teams would love to have one of them. ManC's defense is a good example of how a couple of injuries can hurt even a seemingly rock solid team.

This is also why I hope Klopp dares to be very cynical about all other competitions than PL and perhaps CL. Only use players if it's good for their form, to maximize our PL chances.

So you don't agree that it's over bar squad depth and injury caveats, but then you list squad depth concerns and injury concerns.

[ScouserAtHeart]

You know what my absolute nightmare scenario is?

Rodgers winning it with Leicester I know it's very, very unlikely. Just putting it out there