Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Iska]

Both the DUP and Sinn Fein have been gaining voters for years now. The UUP and SDLP are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

Northern Ireland pioneering the type of political culture we have now all come to know and love on social media.

[Alan_X]

Can't see us being a functioning member again - I think they'll call us Bromiders.

Or maybe Brunts and Brocksuckers.

[drmick]

I reckon another £500m, at least, has been promised as part of this, for NI. I'm hearing GPs and Consultants are soon to get a 2-3% payrise here, from sources close to the people who authorise such an award. Guessing other civil servants due for a rise too.

Plus there are quite a few infrastructure projects stalled due to them relying on future EU funding.

[oldfordie]

would a Bremain, or a Breturn as some call it, be possible? Would the UK be able to function as an EU member state, once again, as if nothing happened?

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/03/14/perhaps-theyd-better-go-a3953265

Maybe we should start sending more pro EU officials. who are these officials there talking about anyway.?
I think we've self induldged ourselves for many years now, all the old theories have been tossed in the bin, If our officials want to throw tantrums stirring up trouble then they are better off finding another job.
I think the biggest problem we will have in Brussels if we remain will be our MEPs, I expect the kippers etc to fight tooth and nail to win more MEPs, they will be carry on with the staged dramas to make the EU look bad.
The only thing that matters is the rest of us can carry on without the threat of Brexit causing mayhem.

[TepidT2O]

Bromine means foul stench. Seems appropriate

[Zeb]

would a Bremain, or a Breturn as some call it, be possible? Would the UK be able to function as an EU member state, once again, as if nothing happened?

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/03/14/perhaps-theyd-better-go-a3953265

It's a point Rory Stewart was making in that video I posted yesterday too. He framed it as declaring a marriage over and walking out then trying to slink back in a couple of years later to immediately start making demands about things with which you didn't agree.

Against that, the division in the country - and the absence of a unifying compromise - means we're a bit stuck.

Institute for Government have put out what needs to happen should May's 'deal' be passed by Parliament: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/withdrawal-agreement-bill

One of the authors points out that past such legislation has required 80+ (Maastricht) and 120+ (Lisbon) votes to get through. No stable majority to push it through to the end and there is a problem once we pass the point of being able to hold European elections.

[killer-heels]

would a Bremain, or a Breturn as some call it, be possible? Would the UK be able to function as an EU member state, once again, as if nothing happened?

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/03/14/perhaps-theyd-better-go-a3953265

Why not go back in under the conditions the EU wants to impose on us? The only thing I would miss is the quality of the GBP notes and coins.

[oldfordie]

It's a point Rory Stewart was making in that video I posted yesterday too. He framed it as declaring a marriage over and walking out then trying to slink back in a couple of years later to immediately start making demands about things with which you didn't agree.

Against that, the division in the country - and the absence of a unifying compromise - means we're a bit stuck.

Institute for Government have put out what needs to happen should May's 'deal' be passed by Parliament: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/withdrawal-agreement-bill

One of the authors points out that past such legislation has required 80+ (Maastricht) and 120+ (Lisbon) votes to get through. No stable majority to push it through to the end and there is a problem once we pass the point of being able to hold European elections.

If Stewart wants to use a marriage analogy then I think a marriage of convenience is a better analogy, who said everyone has to love each other to make the arrangement work.
I think it's important to remember our government didn't want us to actually leave and the EU know this. the senior politicians we have now have to go and they will.
The country is divided and we have to accept it. how will it effect future election campaigns is a worry. if Brexit proves to be a vote loser for Labour which it is then they can expect to loose many seats with MPs making Brexit arguments. the same applies to the Tories, we know many Tories are pro Brexit so the backlash will be less severe but who knows, the Tories may loose many marginal seats for supporting Brexit.
The whole situation is a mess but sadly I can see the Tories wining a majority after Mays gone.
 Ive spoken to 3 Labour remain supporters over the last few days alone and they all have sympathy for May. poor girl had a impossible task, telling them it's all of her own making makes no difference and they right in a way. there was never going to be a compromise Brexit just as theres never going to be a brexit that unites the country. still doesn't mean I have any sympathy for May or Corbyn
They have both played a part in splitting the country in half over the last 2 1/2 yrs with there fantasy Brexit promises.
How we must respect the result of the referendum even though we know this means economic disaster has left us where we are now. MPs too scared to stop Brexit.
The country needed leaders and all we had was incompetent bluff merchants.

[Zeb]

If Stewart wants to use a marriage analogy then I think a marriage of convenience is a better analogy, who said everyone has to love each other to make the arrangement work.
I think it's important to remember our government didn't want us to actually leave and the EU know this. the senior politicians we have now have to go and they will.
The country is divided and we have to accept it. how will it effect future election campaigns is a worry. if Brexit proves to be a vote loser for Labour which it is then they can expect to loose many seats with MPs making Brexit arguments. the same applies to the Tories, we know many Tories are pro Brexit so the backlash will be less severe but who knows, the Tories may loose many marginal seats for supporting Brexit.
The whole situation is a mess but sadly I can see the Tories wining a majority after Mays gone.
 Ive spoken to 3 Labour remain supporters over the last few days alone and they all have sympathy for May. poor girl had a impossible task, telling them it's all of her own making makes no difference and they right in a way. there was never going to be a compromise Brexit just as theres never going to be a brexit that unites the country. still doesn't mean I have any sympathy for May or Corbyn
They have both played a part in splitting the country in half over the last 2 1/2 yrs with there fantasy Brexit promises.
How we must respect the result of the referendum even though we know this means economic disaster has left us where we are now. MPs too scared to stop Brexit.
The country needed leaders and all we had was incompetent bluff merchants.

The problem isn't just in the 'now' though, is it? Take the next PM. They are likely to be, whether ideologically or otherwise - and regardless of party, incapable of the diplomatic effort required. So how long does that continue? When does the EU stop being the hot-button political issue it has now become? People generally feel more passionately about how they voted in 2016 than they do with who they voted for in 2017.

Would disagree with you about a compromise being impossible from the start. It only became impossible once May decided that the best way forward was to play to the headbanger wing of her own party. We're both of the view that 'remain' is the best possible outcome but the work around things like a Citizens Assembly has suggested that if you sit people of different views round and try to get them to order what they want from Brexit then you end up with a bespoke 'soft' Brexit (Norway+) compromise once all the unicorns have been shot.

[oldfordie]

The problem isn't just in the 'now' though, is it? Take the next PM. They are likely to be, whether ideologically or otherwise - and regardless of party, incapable of the diplomatic effort required. So how long does that continue? When does the EU stop being the hot-button political issue it has now become? People generally feel more passionately about how they voted in 2016 than they do with who they voted for in 2017.

Would disagree with you about a compromise being impossible from the start. It only became impossible once May decided that the best way forward was to play to the headbanger wing of her own party. We're both of the view that 'remain' is the best possible outcome but the work around things like a Citizens Assembly has suggested that if you sit people of different views round and try to get them to order what they want from Brexit then you end up with a bespoke 'soft' Brexit (Norway+) compromise once all the unicorns have been shot.

You may well be right over a compromise being possible in the early days of Brexit as nobody actually knew what Brexit meant over 2 yrs ago, I know I was willing to compromise and accept a Norway deal so our course could have been set for a compromise Brexit if all parties were given a voice. my views have changed over the last 2 yrs though, am no longer willing just to accept a Norway deal but I accept your probably right,the country itself would have been willing to compromise if a different mood had been set by senior politicians.
A big vote to remain ends the issue hopefully and I can't see the next PM having any more problems running the country than they have now, is Brexit a vote winner will be on all politicians minds, it's up to voters to show them it isn't if we have another referendum.
There are many vairables going into the next election and I am not confident every things going to be fine but we have to hope a big win for remain in a referendum makes politicians think twice.
Then we have Corbyns Labour, god help us. how could they f.. up so badly, even now there on the streets attacking a man desperatly fighting to protect his constituents from poverty.

[Sangria]

You may well be right over a compromise being possible in the early days of Brexit as nobody actually knew what Brexit meant over 2 yrs ago, I know I was willing to compromise and accept a Norway deal so our course could have been set for a compromise Brexit if all parties were given a voice. my views have changed over the last 2 yrs though, am no longer willing just to accept a Norway deal but I accept your probably right,the country itself would have been willing to compromise if a different mood had been set by senior politicians.
A big vote to remain ends the issue hopefully and I can't see the next PM having any more problems running the country than they have now, is Brexit a vote winner will be on all politicians minds, it's up to voters to show them it isn't if we have another referendum.
There are many vairables going into the next election and I am not confident every things going to be fine but we have to hope a big win for remain in a referendum makes politicians think twice.
Then we have Corbyns Labour, god help us. how could they f.. up so badly, even now there on the streets attacking a man desperatly fighting to protect his constituents from poverty.

The leader of the opposition should have been setting an alternative course to the government, and indeed that is their raison d'etre and is paid to do so. Any competent LOTO would have started with compromise but hammered on the impossibility of Brexit and hopefully persuaded people away from it in the three years since. Instead, Corbyn, from the morning of the referendum and ever since, has tried to outflank the Tories on their right. The two main parties have positioned themselves for the kipper vote, and abandoned Remain voters. And the most astonishing thing about this is, the Corbyn cult means that people who were formerly Europhiles have persuaded themselves that the Corbyn line is the line to take, simply because Corbyn takes it. Such is the nature of cults. Orwell's Animal Farm has never been more relevant in my lifetime.

[oldfordie]

The leader of the opposition should have been setting an alternative course to the government, and indeed that is their raison d'etre and is paid to do so. Any competent LOTO would have started with compromise but hammered on the impossibility of Brexit and hopefully persuaded people away from it in the three years since. Instead, Corbyn, from the morning of the referendum and ever since, has tried to outflank the Tories on their right. The two main parties have positioned themselves for the kipper vote, and abandoned Remain voters. And the most astonishing thing about this is, the Corbyn cult means that people who were formerly Europhiles have persuaded themselves that the Corbyn line is the line to take, simply because Corbyn takes it. Such is the nature of cults. Orwell's Animal Farm has never been more relevant in my lifetime.

Ive never looked at it that way. Corbyn thought he was outflanking May.  . your probably right as well, Corbyn was forced to fight May on her terms from day 1. she was allowed to dictate what Brexit meant and Corbyn fell into line, I couldn't really tell the difference between May and Corbyn for nearly 2 yrs. Corbyn never disputed any of her red lines. some of the arguments made were just outright lies. all to keep leave voters happy while infuriating remain voters. as you say remain voters were ignored.
The Labour leadership debates told us what was to come. Smith argued we must have another chance to reconsider if the evidence shows Brexit will bring economic disaster, Corbyn supporters clapped and cheered when Corbyn disagreed arguing we must respect the result of the referendum.
The leader of the Labour party was clapped and cheered for supporting a policy that will put millions of people into poverty for decades.
Eric Clapton once said he could of gone on stage and farted and still got a standing ovation, it reminded me of some of those leadership election debates.

[Ghost Town]

Looks like they're all gonna cave in, then the ERG are going to cliff-edge it again in June. What an anti-climax. All those hopes of last minute revocations or a second referendum...

Times like this I wish I was a Leaver. Must be nice to have everyone working so hard to get you what you want (even though it's a stupid idea that the majority are now against.)

I don't think so many politicans - inc. both sides of the House - or so many in the media, have ever worked so hard on anything that I have wanted. What a good feeling it must be to have so much support. To feel you are so looked-after, so valued, your views taken so seriously that the country's future will be put at risk to keep you happy.

I guess I'm just weird and out of touch with the world.

[It's Jimmy Corkhill]

Looks like they're all gonna cave in, then the ERG are going to cliff-edge it again in June. What an anti-climax. All those hopes of last minute revocations or a second referendum...

Times like this I wish I was a Leaver. Must be nice to have everyone working so hard to get you what you want (even though it's a stupid idea that the majority are now against.)

I don't think so many politicans - inc. both sides of the House - or so many in the media, have ever worked so hard on anything that I have wanted. What a good feeling it must be to have so much support. To feel you are so looked-after, so valued, your views taken so seriously that the country's future will be put at risk to keep you happy.

I guess I'm just weird and out of touch with the world.

I'm not as sure as I felt yesterday. Mays plan appears to be the whole country will be stuck in the backstop; to some of the hardliner Tory c*nts, this will be something they are unable to countenance.

I don't believe the Labour amendment will pass though. Tory survival 101.

[Trim0582]

Thought I would share the below. Many likely would have seen it already but it does make interesting viewing.

https://youtu.be/Ht40yrt3VrY

[Red Beret]

I remember John Major marking several crucial votes on Europe as "issues of confidence", ie, if he lost them he'd call an election. I seem to recall the Lib Dems propping him up on one such vote. (Labour were for it, but voted against after Major tagged on the confidence motion as I recall.)

Could May do something similar with her vote?

[Zeb]

I remember John Major marking several crucial votes on Europe as "issues of confidence", ie, if he lost them he'd call an election. I seem to recall the Lib Dems propping him up on one such vote. (Labour were for it, but voted against after Major tagged on the confidence motion as I recall.)

Could May do something similar with her vote?

No. Fixed Term Parliament Act makes it that the PM can't just decide to call an election when they want to so now, if a PM tells their MPs they'll call an election if they lose, their MPs will turn around and say, "Yeah, but we won't vote to let you have one."

[Red Beret]

No. Fixed Term Parliament Act makes it that the PM can't just decide to call an election when they want to so now, if a PM tells their MPs they'll call an election if they lose, their MPs will turn around and say, "Yeah, but we won't vote to let you have one."

So she definitely can't put an amendment into the bill that will double it up as a confidence motion? (Not doubting you, just won't put anything past her - although I'm guessing if she could she'd have done it already.)

[killer-heels]

So she definitely can't put an amendment into the bill that will double it up as a confidence motion? (Not doubting you, just won't put anything past her - although I'm guessing if she could she'd have done it already.)

There is absolutely nothing she values more than the Tory party. If she had a child, she would sell it if it meant keeping that gang together. Therefore she would never risk the Tories losing power even for Brexit.

[Red Beret]

There is absolutely nothing she values more than the Tory party. If she had a child, she would sell it if it meant keeping that gang together. Therefore she would never risk the Tories losing power even for Brexit.

Yeah. If she had a wafer thin majority she might try it, but I can't imagine even a pro Brexit Labour MP propping her up if there's an election to be had.

Look at that. May is less effective a PM than John Major.

[Zeb]

So she definitely can't put an amendment into the bill that will double it up as a confidence motion? (Not doubting you, just won't put anything past her - although I'm guessing if she could she'd have done it already.)

Not in the way Major did, no. Major (and other PMs before Cameron) could use the threat of being behind in the polls and MPs losing their seats to bully things through. May's MPs could just decide not to vote for the election and leave her short of the 2/3s Commons majority needed to call one.

[Currywurst]

" Ive spoken to 3 Labour remain supporters over the last few days alone and they all have sympathy for May. poor girl had a impossible task, telling them it's all of her own making makes no difference and they right in a way. "

No sympathy whatsoever for May. This article in Der Spiegel nails her exactly:

m.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-s-brexit-disaster-a-1258101.html

She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid.

[Zeb]

David Allen Green's brief summary has him thinking similarly to what we've been saying on here since last year about where May's 'deal' ultimately ends up.

This week will see the extraordinary sight of Brexiteer MPs voting for an international agreement which could keep UK in a customs union and single market without either an exit mechanism or representation on EU institutions.

Take a moment, and gasp at the sheer irony of this.

I personally do not mind this, as I do not want UK to exit either a customs union or single market, and I see the eventual development of joint bilateral UK-EU bodies as part of an association agreement.

But, gods, the long interim will come as nasty shock to Brexiteers.

This should be made as plain as can be.

The Deal is a Brexit in name only from which the UK may never leave.

Some of us do not mind this, but any committed Brexiteer should be aghast.

No do-able Brexit is worth the effort.

It is that simple.

And this has been true since Maastricht.

[Dr. Beaker]

Norway+ works for me. The best of all worlds - ruled by Europe without the malign influence of us trying to fuck everything up.

[killer-heels]

Norway+ works for me. The best of all worlds - ruled by Europe without the malign influence of us trying to fuck everything up.

Yep. It seems though some pro european mp’s dont want that either and want to gamble the house on a second vote.

[Red Beret]

Not in the way Major did, no. Major (and other PMs before Cameron) could use the threat of being behind in the polls and MPs losing their seats to bully things through. May's MPs could just decide not to vote for the election and leave her short of the 2/3s Commons majority needed to call one.

I think I need to clarify and get some clarification.

When calling an election, yes we need a 2/3 majority to dissolve parliament.  But as I understand it, losing a no confidence motion sets in motion events that could trigger an election regardless of the majority? Parliament has two weeks to form a government or else an election is called?

So I'm not saying she would try to dissolve parliament; I'm saying she could threaten to dissolve the government, which could lead to a dissolution of parliament.

A no confidence vote isn't the same as an election vote. So can May make this a confidence issue? Don't forget, Corbyn called the last no confidence vote on the back of May's first heavy Brexit defeat.

[filopastry]

Yep. It seems though some pro european mp’s dont want that either and want to gamble the house on a second vote.

I think the Norway+ option really is problematic for the UK though from a democratic deficit point of view

[killer-heels]

I think the Norway+ option really is problematic for the UK though from a democratic deficit point of view

We, as Remainer's, should not really care. Its quite clear that the Europeans are far more trustworthy than our lot. If we can continue to follow the high EU standards on foods and products and there is good immigration channels, that's all that matters.

[ShakaHislop]

We, as Remainer's, should not really care. Its quite clear that the Europeans are far more trustworthy than our lot. If we can continue to follow the high EU standards on foods and products and there is good immigration channels, that's all that matters.

I care about giving c*nts like Frottage the win, even if it's a phyrric one from their point of view.

[ShakaHislop]

I think the Norway+ option really is problematic for the UK though from a democratic deficit point of view

Both the facts that it's a Brexit that leads to us giving back control, rather than gaining any further and includes the continuation of FOM is not focused on by the media anywhere near enough, particularly in the context of Labour MPs. It's repeated a million times that there are some Labour MPs prepared to vote through a Brexit deal but the vast majority of them aren't going to support any old Brexit. Caroline Flint isn't going to relish telling Big "WTO now" Steve from Don Valley that the Polish will still be able to pretty much come and go as they please.

I assume they'd be more open to a customs-union only Brexit but then that position would come under more scrutiny than it has to date, as it does not provide for frictionless trade with the EU.

[Ray K]

BBC's Katya Adler:
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1

[killer-heels]

The Europeans need to update their references. Its always Monthy Python.

[Ray K]

The Europeans need to update their references. Its always Monthy Python.

It's either Python or Mr. Bean.
It's still more recent than British politicians, whose references are always to WWII.

[Libertine]

@BakerLuke
Very drôle — France’s Europe minister calls her cat Brexit: “He wakes me up miaowing like mad because he wants to be let out. As soon as I open the door, he stands in the middle, unsure whether he wants to go out or not. When I put him out, he gives me an evil look.”

 

[SlowRap]

notice none of the Brexiteers are making arguments for leaving and have now shifted to "respecting the referendum" only

[stoa]

It's either Python or Mr. Bean.
It's still more recent than British politicians, whose references are always to WWII.

They should still update them. What's more fitting for this whole debacle than Vicky Pollard from Little Britain?

[TepidT2O]

Looking like May will seek a 9 month delay. (According to peston)

This means I will get to vote for the European Parliament again.

I’m going to go dressed in a giant EU flag.

[ShakaHislop]

Looking like May will seek a 9 month delay. (According to peston)

This means I will get to vote for the European Parliament again.

I’m going to go dressed in a giant EU flag.

Peter Bone was suggesting a 9 month extension on the BBC earlier today, albeit to be used to prepare for a no deal Brexit.

[Andy]

Peter Bone was suggesting a 9 month extension on the BBC earlier today, albeit to be used to prepare for a no deal Brexit.

That fuckwit is the last person that we should be listening to.

[Alan_X]

We, as Remainer's, should not really care. Its quite clear that the Europeans are far more trustworthy than our lot. If we can continue to follow the high EU standards on foods and products and there is good immigration channels, that's all that matters.

Err...  can you not see the problem? Since WW2 the Labour Party have only been in government for 25 years of which 13 years were Blair/Brown (and therefore don't count for the current Labour Party). The probability that we will have Tory governments is far higher than having Labour governments and those Tory governments are likely to be pro-Brexit, populist, de-regulation, free-market, uber-Thatcherite Tories.

The only option that ensures we follow high EU standards is staying on the EU. Once we leave, even on a Norway+ basis, the ERG nutters will keep pressing for further disengagement on the grounds that the resultant decline in the UK economy will be because 'Brexit wasn't done right' and 'we're still a vassal state unable to take control of our destiny'.