Topic: Shoot on Sight: How do we improve our scoring when on top?

[macmanamanaman]

After watching us this season, one observation is our lack of cutting edge in attack.
We find it difficult to convert dominance to goals. At least not to the same level as Man City.

The great positive: We re carving open quite decent openings. It's not sterile possession,  but actually quite promising situations with overloads etc that we are consistently creating.
But our shots seem to get blocked more than other teams (to my biased eyes, at least) and we seem to lack true ruthlessness in front of goal.

Even Salah, our best assassin,  has many moments like this in a match.

Its a testament to our perseverance and quality that we keep at it, until the goal comes  and have a strong enough defense to keep the opposing chances at a minimum.

Another puzzling thing: Our counter attacks are almost never as lethal as they used to be a few seasons ago. The word used then was "devastating".
Now, its more "....and Liverpool have a corner" or "Pass overhit/underhit and the opposing defense have a chance to get back".


So how exactly do we fix
a. Our shooting efficiency ?
b. Our counter attacking effectiveness?


Theories
a. We need to shoot more often and much earlier.
Our shots are often telegraphed. We try to set ourselves up properly but most defenders are now able to put in a block. More blocks, more confidence and the pattern is set for the game.
If we shoot early, even at the expense of accuracy or power, I would hazard we would see more goals.
Especially random ones: Through the keeper/defenders legs , scuffed shots that trickle home, deflections and ricochets that "luckily" go in, etc.

b. On counters, I feel we need to sometimes allow players to be more selfish: Just run at the opposition 1:1 and beat the last man. We may lose the ball often, but the rewards outweigh the risks. Our 3-2 type overloads should be resulting in a lot more goals, but our "passing too soon" is not totally working right now. In counter attacking situations,  half the battle might be won if the defender craps his pants at the fast skillful attacker running at him, and can't second guess if pass or dribble or shot is coming up.
Resulting in committing too early to the (sometimes) wrong choice.

I hope we can fix our cutting edge. If we do, then we will be there or thereabouts in number 1 or 2 position in the league.
If we dont, then our defense and midfield will carry us to Top 4, but a few (frustrating) draws/losses are inevitable in matches we dominate but fail to score (enough) in.

[ToneLa]

With the amount of corners last night I want us to work on attacking set pieces

As for the rest. I dunno. Half the time I feel like we don't shoot when we should.

The other half, we need composure. Easier said than done when you don't get time on the ball - and god knows we can't go down in the box for real and hope for a fair shake - but some of our skied shots, the wide ones, the hit n hopes...

As we win and confidence soars, hopefully the composure seeps into those shots we're currently seeing overhit

[Gods_Left_Boot]

It's an interesting point. The coaching staff seem to have drilled into our forwards the habit of "turning 6/10 chances into 9/10 chances" or whatever the famous Lijnders line was. Unfortunately in moments of poor form and/or confidence this can lead to more errors and worse outcomes. There were quite a few instances last night in which our players, particularly Mo and Jota, took a couple of extra touches to get in better position only to have their shots eventually blocked at the last second.

At times it's very frustrating as fans and many would like to see a more instinctive first-time finish rather than a more laboured or intricate one,  but this comes 100% from the coaching staff.

[Kashinoda]

With the amount of corners last night I want us to work on attacking set pieces

As for the rest. I dunno. Half the time I feel like we don't shoot when we should.

The other half, we need composure. Easier said than done when you don't get time on the ball - and god knows we can't go down in the box for real and hope for a fair shake - but some of our skied shots, the wide ones, the hit n hopes...

As we win and confidence soars, hopefully the composure seeps into those shots we're currently seeing overhit

We've scored from a corner mroe than any other team in the Prem since the start of last season

[meady1981]

Aim for the bit of the goal the keeper's not in.

[Sangria]

We've scored from a corner mroe than any other team in the Prem since the start of last season

The problem is, our best headers of the ball aren't always in the mix. For instance, one of our goalscorers from last season hasn't yet gone up for a set piece this season. Why is this? Isn't this a waste of resources?

[redk84]

It has been an intermittent issue for us for a while...we control games better now and only seem to go when we want to, the conversion rate is something I do not know in terms of stats though i wouldn't imagine it to be worse than many other clubs

Most of the time we create good enough chances, only a period last season we stopped doing even that. This season our attack is performing well in terms of creation however.
But we score a shedload of goals regardless, just since our switch to a more efficient way of playing shall we say...we stopped scoring so freely as often tho it still happens.

I like the way we play now and it won't come back to bite us often given how good our defence are, but it would be nice to go clear in games by more than a goal more often.

[Fromola]

A big contrast in the two halves with finishing. We didn't create much second half but put our chances away (and they were good goals, they weren't sitters). The first half we relied on a deflection. Milan did get a few good last ditch blocks in in the first half.

We can be too reliant on scoring the perfect goal. A well worked move that's finished off, or a bit of magic from Mo. And a lot of the time it's well worked moves that are let down by the finish. We could do with more scruffy type goals. That's what makes Ronaldo, for example, such a great goalscorer. They're mostly tap ins or simple headers from crosses because he's always in the right place in the box.

[PoetryInMotion]

We need to stay calm with the last pass. We seem to shoot when a pass is a better option, or we seem to keep on dribbling during 2 on 2s or 3 on 3s, instead of putting a man through.

Also, get Trent & Robbo to cross more - we're doing it less when compared to the 97 and 99 point seasons when Mane and Bobby seemed to score a few headers.

[macmanamanaman]

Set pieces is a good one:
I intuitively feel inswinging corners outperform outswingers and short corners. But we favor outswingers...
Also, more "floaty" corners rather than the ones drilled in. The attempt at accuracy is futile, in this case. Would rather play the percentages, float it in consistently into the mix and keep it alive there, in thedanger area, where pin ball has a decent chance of leading to a goal. The focus should be to keep the ball alive in the area as long as possible rather than try to score the perfect "bullet header" goal.

Instead, our default outswingers routine, drilled in, provide only 1 chance for the header to plant it in the net. Which is a very low percentage option, just based on gut feel.

I assume the coaching staff feels otherwise,  for good reason probably,  but would be interesting to dive deeper into this.
(literally and figuratively:P... We should "dive" more when grappled all over the place on corners)

[palimpsest]

Haven’t we always kind of had this problem and relied on the volume of chances we create?

[macmanamanaman]

Haven’t we always kind of had this problem and relied on the volume of chances we create?

Yes, it goes seem that way.

So the opportunity is, even if we convert 5-10% more than we do, it could lead to big positive points difference.

I think having a "natural" finisher is the obvious one. Sturridge, but not made of glass.
But even with the personel we have, I reckon (a) and (b) + set piece improvements can lead to this improvement.

It hurts to have the opposing team score 2 out of their 3 attacking moves the whole match whereas we have 25 shots to score the same.
Even if we convert 3 draws into wins, thats a +6 point difference, which could well be the gap this season between winner and top 4...

[Chris~]

Haven’t we always kind of had this problem and relied on the volume of chances we create?

This is every team, you create good chances regularly and you score goals. It's really not an issue beyond us not being perfect. To score more you need to create more chances but we've been very good at this for a while now.

[buttersstotch]

I don't think our set pieces are too much of an issue - I'm sure there are some mad stats out there about the actual converstion rate across football from corners. It's why Pep with his elite Barca team always favoured the short corner as it was easier to create a chance. I think we mix our corners up pretty well, the disappointment is just when we underhit them, but I'm sure that's partly because we are looking for a flick on.

Think we are ok with creating good chances, sometimes teams just get blocks in. That also increases the likelihood of us getting a penalty too.

Would say the one worry for me would be counter attacks, without Salah involved I'm never too confident that it will work. Maybe I am just less use to us seeing counter attack opportunities, we had a few great ones last night for example but spun the opportunities but it did used to feel like every time we created a counter attack situation it would end up in the back of the net a couple of years ago.

[Kashinoda]

We've scored more from corners than any other team in the Prem since the start of last season

And 3 more today 

[Enders]

We're a massive threat from set pieces with Van Dijk, Matip, Fabinho and Konate, not that they'll all be on the pitch together often (if at all), but still. All of our forwards are decent enough with their heads too, so will get alot of joy if the delivery is good and they can manage to wriggle free.

That's not even counting our keeper lol

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Set pieces (whether they lead to a goal in the first phase or following phases) were a huge part of breaking teams down in the league winning season and season before.

We missed that last year due to the injuries to our centerhalves, and teams cant afford not to pay attention to them so it opens up space for others

[newterp]

Set pieces (whether they lead to a goal in the first phase or following phases) were a huge part of breaking teams down in the league winning season and season before.

We missed that last year due to the injuries to our centerhalves, and teams cant afford not to pay attention to them so it opens up space for others

And we haven't even asked Alisson to go up on a free kick yet!

[macmanamanaman]

Another perspective:
I started watching Liverpool round the time of our lord, Robbie Fowler. Then Michael Owen.
Making their breakthroughs,  helped by the opportunity presented by injuries to senior strikers.

Considering the chances we create each game, the time is right for a Gordon or someone else from the academy to unexpectedly burst through, after a "ridiculously bad luck, but here you have all 4 serior forwards injured/unavailable at the same time"situation? A forward version of Phillips, but morr sure fit to our system (i.e pacier and young enough to grow into the role)
 Have no idea apart from Harvey Elliot and Kaide Gordon who else can potentially be this person.

[CraigDS]

Sign Haaland. Simples.

[Wabaloolah]

Yes, it goes seem that way.

So the opportunity is, even if we convert 5-10% more than we do, it could lead to big positive points difference.

I think having a "natural" finisher is the obvious one. Sturridge, but not made of glass.
But even with the personel we have, I reckon (a) and (b) + set piece improvements can lead to this improvement.

It hurts to have the opposing team score 2 out of their 3 attacking moves the whole match whereas we have 25 shots to score the same.
Even if we convert 3 draws into wins, thats a +6 point difference, which could well be the gap this season between winner and top 4...

you don't think Salah is a "natural finisher"?

[fredfrop]

Release the Naby!

[LovelyCushionedHeader]

Also, more "floaty" corners rather than the ones drilled in. The attempt at accuracy is futile, in this case. Would rather play the percentages, float it in consistently into the mix and keep it alive there, in thedanger area, where pin ball has a decent chance of leading to a goal.

This is just a terrible take. If you float corners in, the keeper can just come and collect, or there is no pace for the attacking player to work with. We obviously do what we do for a reason, and have been very successful at it relative to every other Premier League club since 18/19.

[JackWard33]

The answer to scoring more is always more higher value chances

Conversion rate is the biggest red herring in football - good players slightly over perform their expected rate (because it nets out with less good players) but it’s slightly (like 5-10% in most cases and that’s over time they’ll still have down patches / seasons) and way less than people perceive
If your skeptical about this go and look at the list of players that missed the most big chances over the last 5 years, or even simpler look back at the Jota thread when eveything he was hitting was going in and he was described as a savant of a finisher … then watch his misses from his last ten games.
It evens out and people are constantly fooled by randomness and their selective perception

As for our scoring im not sure what the problem is perceived to be?
At the moment we’re racking up nearly 2 expected goals per 90 MORE than our opposition - that’s obscene (and unsustainable - if it was sustained we’d be the best side of all time … >1 goal difference is elite)… so basically we don’t currently have a problem

The only time we struggle to create is against elite low block teams - and you could argue we need a better way of executing in these situations but then so do most teams (it’s where Guardiola historically is better than his competition)
Shooting more from less good spots is almost never the answer - although less good spots is a spectrum… there’s a huge difference (maybe 5X) between the edge of the box and 25 yards out. There’s some interesting work on when it can be better to shoot from long range but you need to be certain you won’t make a better higher quality chance as often long shots give up that possibility as they turn over possession

Btw I’m not surprised we’ve been doing set piece work - I posted on here a while ago it was the area in football teams will look to exploit and more as open play defences become more and more organised

But in general - create more better chances is the answer and at the moment we’re doing that at an elite level

[Too early for flapjacks?]

Do the stats actually back up the idea that we have less of a cutting edge than our rivals or do most fans just generally feel this way about their own teams? It's like when people say we don't score many goals from set pieces but the stats say we are better than most.

[JackWard33]

Do the stats actually back up the idea that we have less of a cutting edge than our rivals or do most fans just generally feel this way about their own teams? It's like when people say we don't score many goals from set pieces but the stats say we are better than most.

We’ve been second in the league for chances created for the last 4 years behind city only each year
Same with goals scored apart from last year when we were third

[Jon2lfc]

We also need to get the right players on our free-kicks.
If we have a dead-cert on free-kicks (or pretty much 80% certain to score) then we increase our goal scoring opportunities and strike fear into the opposition in equal measure.
We had that when Suarez was with us.
Messi had that at Barca.

Maybe we could get these guys back to help the current lads out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcGBVhKU2ss

[BassTunedToRed]

Do the stats actually back up the idea that we have less of a cutting edge than our rivals or do most fans just generally feel this way about their own teams? It's like when people say we don't score many goals from set pieces but the stats say we are better than most.

Obviously it depends how you define cutting edge, but after six matches Liverpool have had the most clear-cut chances (those where it's reasonable to expect the player to score) in the PL this season.

Liverpool 24, City 21, Man Utd, 17 are the top three. Chelsea 11, Arsenal 7 and Spurs 6 for the rest of the big six.

[Jookie]

We also need to get the right players on our free-kicks.
If we have a dead-cert on free-kicks (or pretty much 80% certain to score) then we increase our goal scoring opportunities and strike fear into the opposition in equal measure.
We had that when Suarez was with us.
Messi had that at Barca.

Maybe we could get these guys back to help the current lads out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcGBVhKU2ss

Read some stats around direct free kick conversion rate. Not completely up to date but Messi was approximately 10% conversion rate of scoring from a direct free kick.

Trent Alexander Arnold is a similar conversion rate (about 8-10%) but with a small data set - just 4 goals.

Apologies if I’ve read this wrong but are you saying we need someone who scored 80% of the direct free kicks they take? I think conversion rates of 10-15% are viewed as an elite level. Since Opta began Ward-Prowse has the best conversion rate of any player at 12.5% (or did in Jan 2021)

[MonsLibpool]

After watching us this season, one observation is our lack of cutting edge in attack.
We find it difficult to convert dominance to goals. At least not to the same level as Man City.

The great positive: We re carving open quite decent openings. It's not sterile possession,  but actually quite promising situations with overloads etc that we are consistently creating.
But our shots seem to get blocked more than other teams (to my biased eyes, at least) and we seem to lack true ruthlessness in front of goal.

Even Salah, our best assassin,  has many moments like this in a match.

Its a testament to our perseverance and quality that we keep at it, until the goal comes  and have a strong enough defense to keep the opposing chances at a minimum.

Another puzzling thing: Our counter attacks are almost never as lethal as they used to be a few seasons ago. The word used then was "devastating".
Now, its more "....and Liverpool have a corner" or "Pass overhit/underhit and the opposing defense have a chance to get back".


So how exactly do we fix
a. Our shooting efficiency ?
b. Our counter attacking effectiveness?


Theories
a. We need to shoot more often and much earlier.
Our shots are often telegraphed. We try to set ourselves up properly but most defenders are now able to put in a block. More blocks, more confidence and the pattern is set for the game.
If we shoot early, even at the expense of accuracy or power, I would hazard we would see more goals.
Especially random ones: Through the keeper/defenders legs , scuffed shots that trickle home, deflections and ricochets that "luckily" go in, etc.

b. On counters, I feel we need to sometimes allow players to be more selfish: Just run at the opposition 1:1 and beat the last man. We may lose the ball often, but the rewards outweigh the risks. Our 3-2 type overloads should be resulting in a lot more goals, but our "passing too soon" is not totally working right now. In counter attacking situations,  half the battle might be won if the defender craps his pants at the fast skillful attacker running at him, and can't second guess if pass or dribble or shot is coming up.
Resulting in committing too early to the (sometimes) wrong choice.

I hope we can fix our cutting edge. If we do, then we will be there or thereabouts in number 1 or 2 position in the league.
If we dont, then our defense and midfield will carry us to Top 4, but a few (frustrating) draws/losses are inevitable in matches we dominate but fail to score (enough) in.

I think we'd score more goals if we had players that could consistently beat their man 1v1 and players that can shoot from distance. It'd add another dimension to our attack and make us less predictable.

Salah and Mané are not 1-chance-1-goal strikers but their tacttical fit is more important.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

I'd love to see these 1 chance 1 goal strikers that never miss any chances. We've created the 2nd most amount of chances [second to City] for the last 3/4 years

[JackWard33]

I'd love to see these 1 chance 1 goal strikers that never miss any chances. We've created the 2nd most amount of chances [second to City] for the last 3/4 years

Hah - yup
I always wonder why people think they're called "chances" if they're always supposed to be taken ... should be called 'certainties'

[El Lobo]

An 80% conversion rate from free kicks? Not asking much.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Hah - yup
I always wonder why people think they're called "chances" if they're always supposed to be taken ... should be called 'certainties'

and interestingly enough the side that has won 3 out of the last 4 league titles, doesn't shoot outside the box very often at all, i wonder why that is   

[Jookie]

Long range shooting and corner kicks are 2 things I see a few people saying are really important as an attacking tool. Whilst being good at both is an advantage, both aspects are some of the lowest chances in terms of scoring. Number of long shots and long shot goals have declined in PL since mid 2000’s, as have goals from direct free kicks. Potentially driven by stats based approaches showing they aren’t productive methods of scoring regularly. Even players like Ward-Prowse have said they don’t practise direct free kicks that much any more.

In terms of corners you get <20% chance of getting attempt on goal and about 3% chance of scoring.

Again, I’ll say both set pieces and long range shooting can a way of scoring. But they aren’t a effective way of  scoring regularly for most teams. The most effective way is creating good chances and lots of them. Something we already do

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Long range shooting and corner kicks are 2 things I see a few people saying are really important as an attacking tool. Whilst being good at both is an advantage, both aspects are some of the lowest chances in terms of scoring. Number of long shots and long shot goals have declined in PL since mid 2000’s, as have goals from direct free kicks. Potentially driven by stats based approaches showing they aren’t productive methods of scoring regularly. Even players like Ward-Prowse have said they don’t practise direct free kicks that much any more.

In terms of corners you get <20% chance of getting attempt on goal and about 3% chance of scoring.

Again, I’ll say both set pieces and long range shooting can a way of scoring. But they aren’t a effective way of  scoring regularly for most teams. The most effective way is creating good chances and lots of them. Something we already do

Well said. It's become a myth, ala Coutinho being the ultimate lock picker and how he would unlock all the parked buses [despite being here in games where we struggled to break down sides]

[Historical Fool]

The problem is, our best headers of the ball aren't always in the mix. For instance, one of our goalscorers from last season hasn't yet gone up for a set piece this season. Why is this? Isn't this a waste of resources?

It’s unrealistic and risky to expect Alisson to consistently go up for corners IMO.

[PoetryInMotion]

It’s unrealistic and risky to expect Alisson to consistently go up for corners IMO.

 

[MonsLibpool]

Long range shooting and corner kicks are 2 things I see a few people saying are really important as an attacking tool. Whilst being good at both is an advantage, both aspects are some of the lowest chances in terms of scoring. Number of long shots and long shot goals have declined in PL since mid 2000’s, as have goals from direct free kicks. Potentially driven by stats based approaches showing they aren’t productive methods of scoring regularly. Even players like Ward-Prowse have said they don’t practise direct free kicks that much any more.

In terms of corners you get <20% chance of getting attempt on goal and about 3% chance of scoring.

Again, I’ll say both set pieces and long range shooting can a way of scoring. But they aren’t a effective way of  scoring regularly for most teams. The most effective way is creating good chances and lots of them. Something we already do

Having a good long-range shooter creates more space by drawing defenders out. A good dribbler will also create space and improve the quality of our final ball.

I also think that we could score more from corners. I remember us scoring a lot from them after Brendan said he'd work on them in the 2013-14 season. Corners are low-scoring but we could be more dangerous. They can serve as a way of putting pressure on the opposition even if we don't score like Brentford's long throws for example.

[LiamG]

Having a good long-range shooter creates more space by drawing defenders out. A good dribbler will also create space and improve the quality of our final ball.

I also think that we could score more from corners. I remember us scoring a lot from them after Brendan said he'd work on them in the 2013-14 season. Corners are low-scoring but we could be more dangerous. They can serve as a way of putting pressure on the opposition even if we don't score like Brentford's long throws for example.

Haven't we scored the most goals from corners in the league this season?