Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[Andy @ Allerton!]

(Mods if this Thread isn't OK to split from the EU one, then please feel free to delete/close as Applicable)

I've been wondering since the Brexit vote what's going on at the 'top' of the Country. We have the other thread for arguing the ins and outs and the reasons and the disagreements.

In this one, I'd like to see what answers can be gleaned (From those brighter and more politically informed and who know more about Business) to see why 'Business' seems to be pretty happy with this (Not Multi-National EU Gateway Corporations, nor EU trading financial companies) - but these being interviewed saying that they will 'get to trade with other countries more' and those MPs and Cronies that (For all intents and purposes) let it happen.

What do THEY get out of it. Would it affect them if the country went into recession, people lost their righs and the rest?

Looking at the statements of intent following this, it seems like a 'Golden Ticket for Austerity' for the Tories. They can cut even more now and blame it on Brexit. The ones that gibbed it may have gambled on the Stock market and anyway, most are multi-millionaires anyway. Could the 'ruling class' and the 'Elite' have come away from this better off than we went in? It's been said many a time that the poor and the youth will pay of the debts and the mistakes of those today. If they are getting poorer, does it follow that the rich are going to continue to get richers? Are more of those in the 'middle' going to be pushed down?

Of late (pre-Tory) the country seemed a bit fairer and a bit happier and a bit more even (Though, that depends on where you start) - could there be Right-Wing views to get more of the population into their view of where 'Their place' is or should be? Brexit would seem to fulfill and allow this function. Many are going to be worse off, some much much worse off.

Who will win and who will lose? How will we find out? What can be done? Could it be possible that the UK could be better off and we've all fallen for some kind of 'Remain Spin' (I don't think so given what I've read and seen over the years)

[killer-heels]

Are small businesses happy with it? It seems most are not because of the prospect of selling products with a tariff instead of tariff free.

The richer will definitely come off better and all that will happen is the gap between poor and rich will become bigger. If this uncertainty remains and the pound remains low then import costs will rise which will hit the shops and hit the poorest. We all know what happened during the last recession.

Also a price drop in houses will benefit us landlords again. After legislation was introduced to put off landlords, a lower price will bring them back to the table in terms of purchasing property. I have a property rented out and was thinking of getting another but didnt feel i needed to but if property prices drop then thats an attractive investment again.

[bigbonedrawky]

One thing i know is If you can turn the chaos switch on and off. ( Like Frottage and others have managed to do ) You can make a killing on the Stock Markets. "without a shot been fired"

[Fairytale of 2005]

Are small businesses happy with it? It seems most are not because of the prospect of selling products with a tariff instead of tariff free.

The richer will definitely come off better and all that will happen is the gap between poor and rich will become bigger. If this uncertainty remains and the pound remains low then import costs will rise which will hit the shops and hit the poorest. We all know what happened during the last recession.

Also a price drop in houses will benefit us landlords again. After legislation was introduced to put off landlords, a lower price will bring them back to the table in terms of purchasing property. I have a property rented out and was thinking of getting another but didnt feel i needed to but if property prices drop then thats an attractive investment again.

Not really on topic, but properties should be homes not investment opportunities.

[killer-heels]

Not really on topic, but properties should be homes not investment opportunities.

Yes, I know.

[So… Howard Philips]

More to the point was is someone like Aaron Banks so keen to leave? I get that some MPs, both left and right, don't like the idea of a lack of sovereignty, some voters hope that it will limit immigration but why do some of the rich support leave? I remember Sir James Goldsmith and his Referendum party taking the piss out of Daid Mellor at the count in the 1997 GE.

Is it because they are so wealthy they are insulated from reality but need a hobby to keep them going? More questions than answers from me.

[gqP6w]

Big businesses don't like too much regulation, a fair part of EU laws are about regulation, working time, various safety standards, etc. All those effect the bottom line, the fact a huge safety problem will hit the bottom line harder is the risk they'll happily take

[Andy @ Allerton!]

As this is the fallout thread, a couple of things that Brexit have led to (Feel free to post positive effects as well in here if you find any)

As predicted, Brexit has led to the UK being able to negotiate TTIP unilaterally. Europe have been resisting it and redrawing it to protect Workers, People, the Environment and so on. I doubt the UK Government will bother with any of that 'red tape'

Here is an article from the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/11/brexit-is-a-golden-opportunity-for-stronger-us-uk-trade-ties-says-osborne

[Andy @ Allerton!]

UK Corporation Tax to be cut from 20% to less than 15%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36699642

[Andy @ Allerton!]

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/10/lush-cosmetics-moves-to-germany-because-of-brexit-5998494/

Lush Cosmetics moving business to Germany because of Brexit.

"Lush employs some 1,400 people in Poole, and around a third of those do not have British citizenship."

"Those staff, he said, spend around £4.6million locally on food, leisure and housing, including £700,000 on council tax."

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Easyjet and Vodaphone are considering moving their Headquarters out of the UK

Visa's UK-based data centre likely to move to another EU market

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/uk-firms-mull-moves-in-wake-of-poll/

[McrRed]

As this is the fallout thread, a couple of things that Brexit have led to (Feel free to post positive effects as well in here if you find any)

As predicted, Brexit has led to the UK being able to negotiate TTIP unilaterally. Europe have been resisting it and redrawing it to protect Workers, People, the Environment and so on. I doubt the UK Government will bother with any of that 'red tape'

Here is an article from the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/11/brexit-is-a-golden-opportunity-for-stronger-us-uk-trade-ties-says-osborne

TTIP is a bad thing and heralds the end of the world.

[Red-Soldier]

TTIP is a bad thing and heralds the end of the world.

It's totally evil and now we are out of EU protection, there is a real chance of us adopting all of it withour any objections!

[stara]

While the UK has met EU targets for recycling biodegradable waste, it is struggling to meet its overall 2020 recycling targets and the government is currently trying to weaken new 2030 targets that are under discussion.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/08/uk-opposes-new-eu-waste-recycling-targets-in-leaked-paper

British governments have failed to meet EU targets for cutting air pollution, which causes 40,000 premature deaths each year. These are legally-binding targets for the UK; they are much harder to roll-back than national targets. The legal battle is still ongoing. Crucially, as with recycling biodegradable waste, the UK government is leading efforts in Brussels to weaken the 2030 targets currently under discussion.
http://www.clientearth.org/uk-scuppers-pollution-deal/

So, it seems that those in power get even more shittier air to breathe and bigger landfills to look at. I would not mind that too much, but unfortunately, so does the rest of crown subjects ...

[Alan_X]

UK Corporation Tax to be cut from 20% to less than 15%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36699642

There was an interesting discussion on the BBC the other morning. Someone who had worked at the EU and WTO said that the reduction in corporation tax is an aggressive negotiating tactic to try and lure inward investment. Britain being outside the EU makes it less attractive to foreign investors so we're having to offer lower tax rates as an incentive.

[Fortneef]

Intelligence is divisible. You can be a genius at making and selling widgets and a moron about everything else.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

There was an interesting discussion on the BBC the other morning. Someone who had worked at the EU and WTO said that the reduction in corporation tax is an aggressive negotiating tactic to try and lure inward investment. Britain being outside the EU makes it less attractive to foreign investors so we're having to offer lower tax rates as an incentive.

Indeed, this is what Osbourne was saying. I'm sure it's just a total co-incidence that this is what they wanted to do anyway and now they've been given an excuse to do it.

[Libertine]

Get ready for the slowest growth in the G7 again...

[stoa]

Big businesses don't like too much regulation, a fair part of EU laws are about regulation, working time, various safety standards, etc. All those effect the bottom line, the fact a huge safety problem will hit the bottom line harder is the risk they'll happily take

At the same time, exporting/importing products might become (significantly) more expensive. Not only because of tariffs, but also because of more paperwork or goods taking longer to be shipped to and from the UK. That might be a huge disadvantage when dealing with companies in the EU as they could opt to buy their things from different manufacturers that are also in the EU, who might offer a slightly worse product but are cheaper and more flexible...

[G1 Jockey 4(betfair)]

Exporting will be a big problem especially for small businesses.
VAT paid before customs when we exit.

Cash flow problems for buyers buying our goods and the same for ours buying their goods...as well as tarrifs and vat on shipping services.

Any company strugging now to keep their heads above water will be finished off.
Will put new businesses off also.
Property prices in the uk maes it prohibitive for small businesses as it is....but they may come down long term.
any sharp shock though tot he housing market could trigger big problems all round.

[west_london_red]

Its all a bit arse about face. As people have already said, those with money will be insulated while those at the bottom (who mostly voted to leave it seems) are probably the ones who will most likely suffer the most from the fall out. The places that have suffered the most from the changes over the last 20 years (coastal towns, old industrial areas) are not going to become shining beacons of hope and prosperity because we have left the EU, at best they will stay the same and at worst they will carry on the paths they are currently on of urban decay and a feeling that they have been left behind.

[Red-Soldier]

Its all a bit arse about face. As people have already said, those with money will be insulated while those at the bottom (who mostly voted to leave it seems) are probably the ones who will most likely suffer the most from the fall out. The places that have suffered the most from the changes over the last 20 years (coastal towns, old industrial areas) are not going to become shining beacons of hope and prosperity because we have left the EU, at best they will stay the same and at worst they will carry on the paths they are currently on of urban decay and a feeling that they have been left behind.

These are the places that have received a lot of EU funding, so I'd guess it'll be worse than it currently is for many, if not all of them

[stara]

Those in power will get this spider web and its +600 “Bilateral” Treaties. That should give them lots of fun during next couple of decades.

[rob1966]

These are the places that have received a lot of EU funding, so I'd guess it'll be worse than it currently is for many, if not all of them

No matter what May says about her vision, regardless of is the next PM, no way on earth will the billions in EU funding will be replaced by our government.

Can't help but feel we've all been had in this and that an exit was what Cameron really wanted, but the blame lay with the people.

[BoRed]

Not on the UK side, but this fella probably won't shed any tears:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/08/jose-manuel-barroso-to-become-next-head-of-goldman-sachs-international

[west_london_red]

No matter what May says about her vision, regardless of is the next PM, no way on earth will the billions in EU funding will be replaced by our government.

Can't help but feel we've all been had in this and that an exit was what Cameron really wanted, but the blame lay with the people.

Far be it for me to stick up for Cameron, but I don't think that's the case. I have no doubt he wanted to stay in the EU but he over played his hand by holding the referendum (probably in the expectation that the best he could hope for was a coalition with the Lib Dems in 2015 who would have blocked the vote) and underestimated the levels of treachery within his own party.

[Vinay]

While I am seriously aggravated by this Brexit, I will be laughing my tool off watching those who voted out suffering from the consequences.
However, back on topic: I cannot see why the USA, for example, would prefer to negotiate trade deals with the UK rather than doing it with the EU first. What competitive advantages do we hold over the EU countries? So those in power will not really be benefiting much on a global scale.

[Red-Soldier]

While I am seriously aggravated by this Brexit, I will be laughing my tool off watching those who voted out suffering from the consequences.
However, back on topic: I cannot see why the USA, for example, would prefer to negotiate trade deals with the UK rather than doing it with the EU first. What competitive advantages do we hold over the EU countries? So those in power will not really be benefiting much on a global scale.

The EU have tighter regulations than we probably will have, for example; environmental standards are high in the EU, whereas in the US they are minimal.  Here's an example:

Neonicotinoids are banned across the EU, however, the UK government allowed a small percertage of crops to be treated over here and they are widely used in the US.

http://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/live_animals/bees/pesticides/index_en.htm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33641646
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/06/honeybee-populations-decline-pesticides-united-states-epa-study-imidacloprid

[Hymer Red]

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/10/lush-cosmetics-moves-to-germany-because-of-brexit-5998494/

Lush Cosmetics moving business to Germany because of Brexit.

"Lush employs some 1,400 people in Poole, and around a third of those do not have British citizenship."

"Those staff, he said, spend around £4.6million locally on food, leisure and housing, including £700,000 on council tax."

Not having a go here Andy but Oldham Batteries bought a dilapidated battery factory in Poland several years ago when the UK were not considering Brexit then stripped out all the machinery from the Manchester factory where the company was founded 100 or so years before and moved operations to the factory in Poland putting 300+ workers on the dole. The company's other factories in France and Germany were not effected. Maybe Brexit is just an excuse for Lush?

[kcbworth]

Not having a go here Andy but Oldham Batteries bought a dilapidated battery factory in Poland several years ago when the UK were not considering Brexit then stripped out all the machinery from the Manchester factory where the company was founded 100 or so years before and moved operations to the factory in Poland putting 300+ workers on the dole. The company's other factories in France and Germany were not effected. Maybe Brexit is just an excuse for Lush?

It probably is, but it's a viable excuse nonetheless

[Wallingtonian]

Exporting will be a big problem especially for small businesses.
VAT paid before customs when we exit.

Cash flow problems for buyers buying our goods and the same for ours buying their goods...as well as tarrifs and vat on shipping services.

Any company strugging now to keep their heads above water will be finished off.
Will put new businesses off also.
Property prices in the uk maes it prohibitive for small businesses as it is....but they may come down long term.
any sharp shock though tot he housing market could trigger big problems all round.

But most UK small companies don't do business with the EU, so even if tariffs were applied (which they won't be - see recent comments from the heads of the German Chamber of Commerce and the German equivalent of the CBI), there will be very little effect on small businesses - apart from the welcome removal of EU red tape of course

[Zeb]

But most UK small companies don't do business with the EU, so even if tariffs were applied (which they won't be - see recent comments from the heads of the German Chamber of Commerce and the German equivalent of the CBI), there will be very little effect on small businesses - apart from the welcome removal of EU red tape of course

In the scenario you set out, your 'red tape' is pretty much a synonym for 'workers' rights' isn't it? There's no international trade going on, so loads of the regulations won't apply, and I'm sure you're not suggesting dropping things around safety and quality standards. So what's left? Working Time Directive? Three cheers for the abolition of paid holidays which cripples small businesses with red tape? The phrase 'removing the red tape' sounds great. Not sure it means much though.

[Alan_X]

But most UK small companies don't do business with the EU, so even if tariffs were applied (which they won't be - see recent comments from the heads of the German Chamber of Commerce and the German equivalent of the CBI), there will be very little effect on small businesses - apart from the welcome removal of EU red tape of course

Could you explain what red tape will be removed? I run a small business and I'm not sure what red tape will be disappearing? If you mean I'll be allowed to sack my staff in a whim, overwork and underpay them, allow them to work in dangerous ways and without adequate protection I don't see that as a big step forward.

And the regulations for products, building materials, planning regulations, building regulations and accessibility legislation are all good legislation that protects consumers and the average man in the street.

I read a story somewhere from a food manufacturer who was railing against the EU and the 'cost' of legislation that meant he had to have the words 'contains fish' on the side of a packet of salmon. Now that may seem daft but it's not a cost. It's two words on printed packaging. And if the removal of red tape means a food manufacturer can stuff my shepherds pie with infected sheep's brains and my burgers with 'lips and arseholes' then I'd much rather stay in the EU thank you very much.

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/10/lush-cosmetics-moves-to-germany-because-of-brexit-5998494/

Lush Cosmetics moving business to Germany because of Brexit.

"Lush employs some 1,400 people in Poole, and around a third of those do not have British citizenship."

"Those staff, he said, spend around £4.6million locally on food, leisure and housing, including £700,000 on council tax."

Just to point out in the interests of fact correction, the Metro got this completely wrong and reports came out the following day that it was not the case:

http://www.cosmeticsbusiness.com/news/article_page/Lush_not_moving_production_to_Germany_because_of_Brexit/119560

No redundancies or job reductions, and they signed the lease on the German factory in Nov 2015, long before the Brexit vote.

[PluckyUnderdog]

Could you explain what red tape will be removed? I run a small business and I'm not sure what red tape will be disappearing? If you mean I'll be allowed to sack my staff in a whim, overwork and underpay them, allow them to work in dangerous ways and without adequate protection I don't see that as a big step forward.

And the regulations for products, building materials, planning regulations, building regulations and accessibility legislation are all good legislation that protects consumers and the average man in the street.

I read a story somewhere from a food manufacturer who was railing against the EU and the 'cost' of legislation that meant he had to have the words 'contains fish' on the side of a packet of salmon. Now that may seem daft but it's not a cost. It's two words on printed packaging. And if the removal of red tape means a food manufacturer can stuff my shepherds pie with infected sheep's brains and my burgers with 'lips and arseholes' then I'd much rather stay in the EU thank you very much.

Doubtful you will get a coherrent response. His MO appears to be to state half baked, ill-informed, tabloid -style rants passed off as truth, before disappearing from a thread after a thorough debunking.

[gemofabird]

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backtracked on its gloomy post-Brexit forecast for the UK, saying it is likely the country will be the fastest growing major economy in 2016."

[TepidT2O]

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backtracked on its gloomy post-Brexit forecast for the UK, saying it is likely the country will be the fastest growing major economy in 2016."

And the opposite in 2017

[Alan_X]

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backtracked on its gloomy post-Brexit forecast for the UK, saying it is likely the country will be the fastest growing major economy in 2016."

2016 isn't post-Brexit. Article 50 will be triggered in March next year so 'post-Brexit' will be from March 2019 onwards when we're out of the single market and in the middle of years (maybe decades) of trade negotiations and uncertainty.

[TheShanklyGates]

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backtracked on its gloomy post-Brexit forecast for the UK, saying it is likely the country will be the fastest growing major economy in 2016."

[Trada]