won't Raducanu actually move up the rankings?
So, her points total are, before the AO, 2595, and she didn't play the AO last year. So by winning her first match and getting to R64, will give her 70 points - so a total of 2665.
So, for her to go up, people above her would need to get fewer points than last year. So going up a few places to check their totals:
- Svitolina has 2641 points, and got to the Round of 16 - she has already qualified through to the R32, where she will face Azarenka. If she loses that match, she will lose 110 points, and will drop behind Emma ; otherwise is she wins she stays at 2641 unless she then wins her next match (so again, stays in position)
- Gauff is on 2655, and is dropping points due to being knocked out in the first round, so Emma will definitely go above her.
- Halep is next on 2657, and she reached the QFs, so needs to go one step further this time to gain points to stay ahead of Emma.
- Osaka is up next on 2696, and she obviously won last year's AO so if she doesn't, Emma will leapfrog her as well.
- Kenin is up next on 2762, and she got to the same stage last year, so will stay on 2762.
- Everybody above Kenin didn't get far enough to lost big enough points to drop behind Emma (next furthest got to R16, which is only 240 points, and nobody who got to that stage are in the rankings ahead of Kenin
So that's 3-4 players Emma could go ahead of.
As for those below her who could leap-frog her:
- To get to to the R16 is 240 points - so nobody on lower than 2445 could leap frog-her on lower than that just by getting the R16 - and that is if they didn't compete at all last year in the AO. The only 3 players on >2425 are Kerber, Kvitova (both already out) and Pegula (reached the QFs, so would need to get to the SFs as the #21 seed to leapfrog Emma).
- The next round, the QF, is 430 - opening this up means anyone on 2235 could theoretically leap frog her. Including this gives us Bencic (out already), Kasatkina (got to R64, so QF would net her 360 points, enough for 2720 - she is playing #7 seed Swiatek next, then probably Pavlyuchenko in R16 before the QF). , and Fernandez (out already). So only Kasatkina could move ahead of her, if she beats the #7 and #10 seeds.
- Reaching the SF gets 780 points, so anyone on >1885 could theoretically go ahead. Players in this bracket are Azarenka (only got to R128 so could do it as 770 would be a net 710), Mertens (got to R16 so 720 points from a SF would only be a net of 540, which would take her to <2665, so would need a F appearance) , Ostapenko (got to R128 last year, so a SF would do), Brady (not in the AO), Collins (got to R64 last time, so 780 would be a 710 point differential - not enough to go > 2665, so a F is required) and Mchuova (missing the AO)
Based on the list below, excepting someone below #31 getting to the final, the only players still in the competition that could go ahead of emma are Pegula (by getting to the SF), Kasatkina (by geitting to the QF), Azarenka (getting to the SF), Mertens (getting to the Final), Ostapenko (getting to the SF) and Collins (getting to the F).
So it seems very, very likely she will go up the rankings, even by only a couple places.