Topic: Doesn't matter who you vote for as long as it's for the right reasons!

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

It's possible some of you may be disappointed

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-latest-poll-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-bmg-hung-parliament-a9227476.html?fbclid=IwAR1ouCmjYj_bOEwL_o7WD3Zto9mpQWZWURICEIGPH2gaKmx2y7A3D0JKhLg

[Yorkykopite]

It's possible some of you may be disappointed

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-latest-poll-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-bmg-hung-parliament-a9227476.html?fbclid=IwAR1ouCmjYj_bOEwL_o7WD3Zto9mpQWZWURICEIGPH2gaKmx2y7A3D0JKhLg

Au contraire my dear fellow.

This is the thread that desperately wants a hung parliament. So long as neither Brexiteering party gets an overall majority we will be happy.

[clinical]

You're not wrong, but that doesn't change the fact is, it's how it is. The leader of the party's reputation is so important alongside the manifesto.

[KillieRed]

Au contraire my dear fellow.

This is the thread that desperately wants a hung parliament. So long as neither Brexiteering party gets an overall majority we will be happy.

 

I`d take that over a Tory majority any day of the week, keep the Brexit divorce pain going on for as long as possible.

[classycarra]

Au contraire my dear fellow.

This is the thread that desperately wants a hung parliament. So long as neither Brexiteering party gets an overall majority we will be happy.

Indeed. How can you be so bad at reading a room

[Snail]

I know there was some debate regarding the BBC during this election campaign in the old thread, but this piece from Peter Oborne sums it up for me:

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson continues to get away with it. The onslaught of lies has become a tsunami in the few weeks since I launched a website to keep track of Johnson’s falsehoods, with dozens more waiting to be added to the list.

A particularly distasteful batch concerns his use of the London Bridge terror attack as a campaign tool, in defiance of the wishes of the father of one of the victims. On the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday he wheeled out four or five more, including the daft claim that Jeremy Corbyn will disband MI5, and another that Labour was responsible for the London Bridge attacker’s early release.

Marr barely managed to confront these lies, and it’s noteworthy that the BBC only allowed the prime minister on the air because, after the attack, “it was in the public interest”. Johnson continues to dodge an interview with Andrew Neil, who has eviscerated Nicola Sturgeon and Corbyn.

Meanwhile, Johnson has scarcely been interrogated about the biggest lie of all. It lurks there in plain sight: the Tory slogan “Get Brexit Done”. The nonsensical Conservative position that the country will leave the EU on 31 January – and that the transition period will end in December 2020 – has hardly been scrutinised.

More bigoted statements emerge from Johnson’s press clippings – such as his claim in 1995 that the children of single mothers were “ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate”. Yet he continues to brush off complaints, as he did, again on The Andrew Marr Show, with his offensive comparison between Muslim women and bank robbers. No previous prime minister or party leader would have survived. But Johnson doesn’t merely survive. He flourishes. How?

Partly it’s because he combines membership of the traditional British establishment with celebrity status among the contemporary media elite: Eton, Oxford, the Bullingdon Club, the Conservative party, the Spectator, and flashier parts of the City. He knows what to say and who to say it to.

Britain’s three most powerful newspaper groups (the Telegraph, the Murdoch press and Associated Newspapers) fervently support the Conservative party while being dedicated to the destruction of Corbyn. It is particularly striking that the Times, the voice of Britain’s professional class, has been so stridently in favour of Johnson.

Yet the written press have always tended to support Conservatives. In this election, though, they have an unusual ally – the BBC. The British Broadcasting Corporation is bound by rigorous rules of impartiality that do not apply to newspapers – one reason the organisation has often been unjustly accused by those very same newspapers of being biased towards the left. In the 2019 general election, however, the BBC has been behaving in a way that favours the Tories.

After a dishevelled Johnson made a mess of placing a red wreath at the Cenotaph, ahead of the silence on Remembrance Sunday, BBC Breakfast showed footage of a much smarter Johnson placing a green wreath: footage dating back to 2016, when Johnson was foreign secretary. The corporation insisted the clip was used in error.

Then there was the rather more serious case when, for its main news broadcast, the BBC edited a clip to cut out the audience laughter at the prime minister during the party leaders’ Question Time, after he was asked whether he believed it was important to tell the truth. The edited clip showed only applause.

As Lady Bracknell said: “To lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune, to lose both looks like carelessness.” There has, however, been a series of such misfortunes – all of them errors, perhaps, but all contributing to the widespread impression that the BBC is putting its thumb on the scale for the government.

In October Jill Rutter, a senior research fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe, highlighted the way in which many senior journalists, including the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, had become overly dependent on private briefings from Johnson’s strategy chief, Dominic Cummings. “This way of operating does the public a big disservice,” Rutter said. “It allows Downing Street to get its message out without having to take responsibility for it.”

When Johnson made his notorious “there is no press here” claim in front of the cameras at Whipps Cross hospital in east London– while being quizzed by a father anxious over his sick daughter – Kuenssberg came to his rescue. Passing over the prime minister’s falsehood at the time, she sent out a tweet stating that the father was a Labour activist.

Yet it is unfair to single out Kuenssberg. Research by Justin Schlosberg of Birkbeck, University of London, shows how the BBC (and other TV channels) paid huge attention when the obscure former Labour MP Ian Austin endorsed the Tories. Those channels paid far less attention when Ken Clarke, a political giant, suggested he would not vote Tory.

Dr Schlosberg also draws attention to the striking imbalance in the coverage of manifesto launches. The Institute of Fiscal Studies produced an immediate and strongly critical response to both Tory and Labour manifestos, but “the IFS response to Labour was covered 10 times on the BBC in the two days” compared with “just one mention” for its criticism of the Tory manifesto in the equivalent period.

I don’t think the BBC’s director general, Tony Hall, and his senior executives actively support Johnson and his Brexit policy. The problem is more interesting. The BBC does not have a party political bias: it is biased towards the government of the day.

Two decades ago Hall was the BBC’s director of news and current affairs. Back then the corporation allowed itself to be bullied, manipulated and played by the New Labour government. William Hague’s Tories were almost as hard done-by as Corbyn is today. The memo from the then Newsnight editor Peter Horrocks to his team after the 1997 general election – calling for a very much different, and softer, analysis of New Labour in power than its Tory predecessor – remains notorious.

The BBC is the second greatest British institution (after the NHS) created during the 20th century. It holds us all together as a nation. It stands for something magnificent about the decency and creativity of the British people. Like other great institutions, including parliament, it has been shaken by Brexit. That is understandable. But I worry that, over the last few months, it has been letting down the people who believe in it.

I hope that BBC executives are not favouring the Tories simply because they fear the revenge a Conservative government would take if the corporation gave proper scrutiny to its stunningly dishonest campaign. This wouldn’t work: Johnson has allies who would love nothing more than the destruction of British public service broadcasting.

It is past time for the BBC to regain its confidence as a fair-minded news organisation admired and envied across the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/03/election-coverage-bbc-tories

[oldfordie]

Yep. People still don't know anything about it because it's complicated and takes effort to read up - which would be fine except  politicians and much of the media have abdicated all efforts to have a grown up conversation, preferring a simplistic partisan message and cheap fictitious soundbites.

There's an element of chicken and egg about the shit level of discussion about detail in politics. But I think if more politicians had the gumption to be upfront even when delivering a this is complicated/tough message, people would be a lot more inclined to trust them and listen.

I wouldn't mind but many of the MPs who actually tried to educate the public are now leaving Parliament so the Torys will face even less scrutiny.

[filopastry]

The one hung Parliament I really don't want is where the Tories can be bailed out by the DUP, that brings 31st Jan "No Deal" right back onto the table.

Probably the worst outcome of all where the Tories fall just short.

Anything sub 310-312 or so for the tories on the other hand is great news.

If you look at say BMG or ICM then we probably aren't far away from that scenario, some of the others are obviously showing much wider leads, all the way up to full landslide wins for the Tories (Delta, Opinium, Kantar)

[Red-Soldier]

The one hung Parliament I really don't want is where the Tories can be bailed out by the DUP, that brings 31st Jan "No Deal" right back onto the table.

Probably the worst outcome of all where the Tories fall just short.

Anything sub 310-312 or so for the tories on the other hand is great news.

If you look at say BMG or ICM then we probably aren't far away from that scenario, some of the others are obviously showing much wider leads, all the way up to full landslide wins for the Tories (Delta, Opinium, Kantar)

The take home message from this is that it's still all to play for.

[TepidT2O]

Au contraire my dear fellow.

This is the thread that desperately wants a hung parliament. So long as neither Brexiteering party gets an overall majority we will be happy.

this has made me think.


Assuming we do get a tory government, are we not better off having a larger Tory majority so they can ignore the ERG nutter, or are we better off with them having a Tony majority and instability?

What are people thoughts?

[KillieRed]

this has made me think.


Assuming we do get a tory government, are we not better off having a larger Tory majority so they can ignore the ERG nutter, or are we better off with them having a Tony majority and instability?

What are people thoughts?

I`d guess with all the retirals, there`s a definite wind of change, so there`s probably going to be more ERG types if not specifically aligned to them in parliament. Moderation seems to be on the way out.

A bit like Tea Party/Trumpists in the states.

[TheShanklyGates]

this has made me think.


Assuming we do get a tory government, are we not better off having a larger Tory majority so they can ignore the ERG nutter, or are we better off with them having a Tony majority and instability?

What are people thoughts?

There are no moderate Tories left now since Johnson purged the more sensible ones. He'll be in a stronger position than before even if the result is exactly the same as it was in 2017.

[Dr. Beaker]

But he never fails to  call them one nation Tories and no one pulls him up on it.

[TepidT2O]

There are no moderate Tories left now since Johnson purged the more sensible ones. He'll be in a stronger position than before even if the result is exactly the same as it was in 2017.

There must be reasonably moderate MPs left?

My thinking is that they would no longer have to pander to the ERG, so this might moderate their actions?

This could well be very wishful thinking mind

[filopastry]

There must be reasonably moderate MPs left?

My thinking is that they would no longer have to pander to the ERG, so this might moderate their actions?

This could well be very wishful thinking mind

Some may have more moderate views but I would say the more independent minded ones who are willing to rebel on the basis of the govt being too extreme have probably largely gone.

[No666]

Even the ones who seemed to be more moderate towed the party line when push came to shove. Above everything else they are Tories. The qualifying adjective is detachable rather than integral.

[KillieRed]

Even the ones who seemed to be more moderate towed the party line when push came to shove. Above everything else they are Tories. The qualifying adjective is detachable rather than integral.

The mistake we make is thinking that some of them are decent people, just with different views on how to do things.

[Robinred]

The mistake we make is thinking that some of them are decent people, just with different views on how to do things.

Far be it for me to jump to the defence of any Tory - most particularly the current crop of no-mark right wing nutjobs.

But there are decent Tories. And Tory voters. Do they see the world differently than us? Possibly. They certainly interpret the problems and solutions differently.

Last Sunday I went for a pub lunch with some very old, dear fishing mates. One, a very successful businessman, was telling us how he and friends, for the fourth year running, would be having family Christmas early, because on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day, they are once again devoting time to Crisis at Christmas, in London, working ‘on the ground’ with London’s homeless.

Another very dear and very old friend has for 25 years, since retiring, worked two mornings a week voluntarily washing up, serving and clearing tables at the WVS canteen in his local hospital. He gives blood every week, and runs Sunday jazz concerts in aid of a local hospice.

I could give many other examples. These people are lifelong Tory voters. They are not only not evil, they have good hearts, similar ideals and values to me. But very different views about politics.

Blair and Mandelson understood how vital it was to gain power in order to be in position to create and inact policies that made people’s lives better. They also understood that to gain power, they would need the votes of people who had voted Tory.

[filopastry]

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 42% (-1)
LAB: 33% (-1)
LDM: 12% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+2)
GRN: 4% (+1)

Via @YouGov, 2-3 Dec.
Changes w/ 28-29 Nov.

[TSC]

The one hung Parliament I really don't want is where the Tories can be bailed out by the DUP, that brings 31st Jan "No Deal" right back onto the table.

Probably the worst outcome of all where the Tories fall just short.

Anything sub 310-312 or so for the tories on the other hand is great news.

If you look at say BMG or ICM then we probably aren't far away from that scenario, some of the others are obviously showing much wider leads, all the way up to full landslide wins for the Tories (Delta, Opinium, Kantar)

Re the DUP this time the landscape has changed as Johnson’s brexit splits NI from GB and DUP won’t back it.  Turkeys and Christmas and all that.

[TSC]

There must be reasonably moderate MPs left?

My thinking is that they would no longer have to pander to the ERG, so this might moderate their actions?

This could well be very wishful thinking mind

The ERG is the Tory party now.

[TheShanklyGates]

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 42% (-1)
LAB: 33% (-1)
LDM: 12% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+2)
GRN: 4% (+1)

Via @YouGov, 2-3 Dec.
Changes w/ 28-29 Nov.

Not happening is it.

[koptommy93]

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 42% (-1)
LAB: 33% (-1)
LDM: 12% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+2)
GRN: 4% (+1)

Via @YouGov, 2-3 Dec.
Changes w/ 28-29 Nov.

Not good and not getting any better.

[TepidT2O]

The ERG is the Tory party now.

Would it be that way with a bigger majority?

(I think that maybe to take over of their membership by Brexit party members makes it as likely as a moderate Labour Party when that’s been taken over by SWP members)

[killer-heels]

Not good and not getting any better.

That might not be that bad.

[Red-Soldier]

Would it be that way with a bigger majority?

(I think that maybe to take over of their membership by Brexit party members makes it as likely as a moderate Labour Party when that’s been taken over by SWP members)

A huge Tory majority would be Utopia, we should all get firmly behind it.

[filopastry]

Re the DUP this time the landscape has changed as Johnson’s brexit splits NI from GB and DUP won’t back it.  Turkeys and Christmas and all that.

On the other hand they have a manifesto promise  to keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, DUP would ask for Johnson's deal to be scrapped as a price for support no doubt and I could see the Tories accepting that, so we could GE back to No Deal again

[TepidT2O]

A huge Tory majority would be Utopia, we should all get firmly behind it.

It just a question that I was considering...

In 2017 we assumed that a hung parliament would give a soft Brexit.. it some how conspired to give us the hardest Brexit other than no deal.

I’m just wondering g aloud if the opposite might happen with a significant Tory majority... not that I want that of course, I want the front benches of both parties to be brutally killed by an alien invasion.

[Dr. Beaker]

It just a question that I was considering...

In 2017 we assumed that a hung parliament would give a soft Brexit.. it some how conspired to give us the hardest Brexit other than no deal.

I’m just wondering g aloud if the opposite might happen with a significant Tory majority... not that I want that of course, I want the front benches of both parties to be brutally killed by an alien invasion.

I think that's already happened.

[TSC]

Would it be that way with a bigger majority?

(I think that maybe to take over of their membership by Brexit party members makes it as likely as a moderate Labour Party when that’s been taken over by SWP members)

With the purge of ‘moderate’ (more ‘centrist’) Tories all that are left are those to the extreme right.  Same are in control now.  There’s a reason they got rid of these ‘moderates’ - make way for the extremists. 

[TSC]

On the other hand they have a manifesto promise  to keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, DUP would ask for Johnson's deal to be scrapped as a price for support no doubt and I could see the Tories accepting that, so we could GE back to No Deal again

DUP will definitely require the ‘boris’ deal to be scrapped in return for supporting the Tories should the dup again find itself holding the balance of power.  However the ‘tory’ landscape has changed to the extent where it is now ‘brexit’ above all else.  There’s no chance they’ll risk brexit because of the DUP.  They chucked the DUP under the proverbial bus (as many predicted they would). 

So if the above happened, ie no majority for the Tories I can’t envisage any party propping them up.  But then they’re banking on not needing that (and polls would support that albeit the ‘gap’ has closed slightly recently).

[filopastry]

DUP will definitely require the ‘boris’ deal to be scrapped in return for supporting the Tories should the dup again find itself holding the balance of power.  However the ‘tory’ landscape has changed to the extent where it is now ‘brexit’ above all else.  There’s no chance they’ll risk brexit because of the DUP.  They chucked the DUP under the proverbial bus (as many predicted they would). 

So if the above happened, ie no majority for the Tories I can’t envisage any party propping them up.  But then they’re banking on not needing that (and polls would support that albeit the ‘gap’ has closed slightly recently).

Sorry I wasn't being clear, I meant they would just ditch the WA and go back to No Deal as the default Brexit.

Agreed that as Brexit is basically the only thing the Tories are campaigning on in this election, it is obviously nearly impossible for them to concede too much ground on that issue.

[oldfordie]

Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
“When you’re dealing in trade, everything is on the table. So NHS or anything else.”

- Trump, June 2019

“I don't even know where that rumour started…If you handed it to us on a silver platter, we want nothing to do with it.”

-  Trump, December 2019
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1201818187903520769

[Elmo!]

Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
“When you’re dealing in trade, everything is on the table. So NHS or anything else.”

- Trump, June 2019

“I don't even know where that rumour started…If you handed it to us on a silver platter, we want nothing to do with it.”

-  Trump, December 2019
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1201818187903520769

Needs to be gold to attract Trumps interest.

[PatriotScouser]

From @326Pols

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nUxnVJIFRo9A806IHtkTcd_Cxn1hO4P98nHCnBgeMFI/edit#gid=0

A predicted run down of every constituency and it is regularly updated.

[filopastry]

From @326Pols

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nUxnVJIFRo9A806IHtkTcd_Cxn1hO4P98nHCnBgeMFI/edit#gid=0

A predicted run down of every constituency and it is regularly updated.

Hmmmm, Finchley and Golders Green going Labour, on a higher share of the vote than 2017, not entirely convinced on that one

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Far be it for me to jump to the defence of any Tory - most particularly the current crop of no-mark right wing nutjobs.

But there are decent Tories. And Tory voters. Do they see the world differently than us? Possibly. They certainly interpret the problems and solutions differently.

Last Sunday I went for a pub lunch with some very old, dear fishing mates. One, a very successful businessman, was telling us how he and friends, for the fourth year running, would be having family Christmas early, because on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day, they are once again devoting time to Crisis at Christmas, in London, working ‘on the ground’ with London’s homeless.

Another very dear and very old friend has for 25 years, since retiring, worked two mornings a week voluntarily washing up, serving and clearing tables at the WVS canteen in his local hospital. He gives blood every week, and runs Sunday jazz concerts in aid of a local hospice.

I could give many other examples. These people are lifelong Tory voters. They are not only not evil, they have good hearts, similar ideals and values to me. But very different views about politics.

Blair and Mandelson understood how vital it was to gain power in order to be in position to create and inact policies that made people’s lives better. They also understood that to gain power, they would need the votes of people who had voted Tory.

And yet they're pretty comfortable with over 100,000 people directly dying because of Tory policy, more than 120,000 kids homeless at Christmas, the NHS being screwed into the floor, Police, Ambulances, Fire Services, Prisons, Hospitals, Schools, Teachers, Nurses, Doctors and all the rest being fucked off, underfunded and their businesses being given to rich mates so that they can make a profit?


Yeah they sound fucking wonderful mate.

[Betty Blue]

Pretty useful tactical vote aggregator:

https://votesmart2019.com/

[TheShanklyGates]

In today’s political environment it’s not just the message the politicians are promoting – but whether anyone is listening.

We’ve convened our very own focus groups in a marginal Labour seat on the edge of  Birmingham – before Friday’s attack happened.

Our sample of voters was made up of people who voted for Brexit in the referendum and Labour at the last General Election – now targeted by the Tories.

https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/Ry9SMUurM_k" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/Ry9SMUurM_k</a>

This video is too depressing for words. We are totally, utterly, irretrievably fucked.

[KillieRed]

Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
“When you’re dealing in trade, everything is on the table. So NHS or anything else.”

- Trump, June 2019

“I don't even know where that rumour started…If you handed it to us on a silver platter, we want nothing to do with it.”

-  Trump, December 2019
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1201818187903520769

Whatever he says, assume the opposite.