Author Topic: FSG discussion thread  (Read 740750 times)

Offline TwitterJayy

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #200 on: October 25, 2022, 08:48:40 pm »
Football is about winning, which we've been doing pretty well until the last few months. I don't think going back 9 years really adds much to this argument!
We was a midfield signing away from doing the quadruple.
I know it’s what ifs but one more quality midfielder surely wins us the league and better position for the final. As pointed out what we’re up against. It was a missed opportunity and we’ve only went and made that mistake again.

Offline MD1990

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #201 on: October 25, 2022, 08:57:22 pm »
since the summer of 2018 FSG have been so poor with investment in our squad.

You keep thinking after each window not spending much & making a huge amount in revenue we will spend in the next window.
As this is what is fed to the media.

But yet every window we fail to get our targets.  Nunez is clearly bought when Tchoumeni chose Real.
Diaz was Mane's replacement as Mane had told Klopp  he wanted to leave in summer 2021.

We also had the embarrasing January 2021 window but then repeated it in 2022 with Artur.
If January comes and a midfielder is not bought I really hope the FSG apologists will just stop defending owners who will not invest in signing new players.
Our wage bill will be reduced next summer we badly need to start reinvesting in the squad in January or else we may become a mid table club.
The is PL is full of cash so the owners either decide to try & keep up or sell the club to some owners who will invest.
We get an incredible amount of  revenue every year which is why you have promoted clubs spending over 100m in one window.

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #202 on: October 25, 2022, 09:00:51 pm »
Al made a point in his post above they paid £300mil for the club and we now have £234mil debt that can’t be right surely? Obviously I know what they paid but surely our debt isn’t that much is it.

Just checked and I was wrong.

The debt as of the last accounts is £199.4m.

A secured bank loan of £128m and an inter-company loan of £71.4m.

Apologies for my mistake.
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Offline CS111

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #203 on: October 25, 2022, 09:36:21 pm »
If fsg sell tomorrow how much will they have likely made from LFC after paying off debt and selling for a figure that's reasonably true.

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #204 on: October 25, 2022, 09:37:54 pm »
If fsg sell tomorrow how much will they have likely made from LFC after paying off debt and selling for a figure that's reasonably true.



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Offline keyop

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #205 on: October 25, 2022, 09:45:58 pm »
Al made a point in his post above they paid £300mil for the club and we now have £234mil debt that can’t be right surely? Obviously I know what they paid but surely our debt isn’t that much is it.
My understanding is that it's less than that - the majority of which is the balance of a loan facility we drew down during the pandemic for operational costs (including wages). The remainder (around £70m) was the remaining balance of an inter company loan for the main stand, being paid back over several years.

We've paid a big chunk of the loan facility debt back since commercial/matchday revenues have returned to normal, so it was largely a way of keeping our cash reserves intact and being able to pay our outgoings whilst our income took a hit for 12 months.

So I don't think it's fair to suggest that FSG 'siphoned £250m of our transfer money to pay for infrastructure' - especially when the two are accounted separately, plus the infrastructure costs only represented £70m of the debt, and were being paid back over a long period so as not to cripple cash flow.

It's also easy for many on here to cite other club's transfer spending, but it's worth looking at their borrowing before, during and after the pandemic. Across the same accounting period, Chelsea's debts stood at £1.5 billion, Spurs £800m, Utd £550m, Brighton £300m, Leicester £200m, and even clubs like Bournemouth owed £130m.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2022, 10:01:58 pm by keyop »
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #206 on: October 25, 2022, 10:00:15 pm »
genuinely its interesting reading through the various points of view.One thing we do agree on is that Fsg`s return on investment if they were to sell is 10 times their initial outlay. Wish my investments and my pension could get that return when i crystallise same.
as i said earlier fair play to FSG they delivered klopp who got us more success that we could ever have dreamed off but we are at a fork in teh road over the next 12 months because if they fail to deliver champions league may fall away and the upward curve may start to stagnate.

most genuine fans don`t want a reckless or a sports washing owner but  any business runs under sustainable debt when its needed.

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #207 on: October 25, 2022, 10:00:25 pm »
Why can't we talk about LFC in relation to Arsenal or Spurs or United or Leicester or any other "normal" clubs in the league?
So, how many times have these clubs finished higher than us in the past 4 seasons? Once. They've been splurging, betting the house in a desperate attempt to keep us with us and City.

Stop looking at others spending, the only thing that matters is whether we're improving our team living within our means.

Think we should just get rid of the whole squad and bring in some new players just so we can "win the transfer window"

A bigger stadium was a pipedream for 20 odd years. We went one better by expanding Anfield, something no1 else was able to do. Bet FSG would've loved to have kept us at Melwood and saved the cash.

The stadium and Kirkby helps the fans and the players.

We have to stop this Trumpian view of FSG, they have done a tonne of good (obviously for themselves as well), criticism should be fair and not just talking bollocks.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2022, 10:02:02 pm by Mighty_Red »
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #208 on: October 25, 2022, 10:07:05 pm »
Fucking Trumpian view  :butt
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Offline misscowred

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #209 on: October 25, 2022, 10:08:47 pm »
I also do not know what Trumpian view means?

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #210 on: October 25, 2022, 10:10:24 pm »
So, how many times have these clubs finished higher than us in the past 4 seasons? Once. They've been splurging, betting the house in a desperate attempt to keep us with us and City.

Stop looking at others spending, the only thing that matters is whether we're improving our team living within our means.

Think we should just get rid of the whole squad and bring in some new players just so we can "win the transfer window"

A bigger stadium was a pipedream for 20 odd years. We went one better by expanding Anfield, something no1 else was able to do. Bet FSG would've loved to have kept us at Melwood and saved the cash.

The stadium and Kirkby helps the fans and the players.

We have to stop this Trumpian view of FSG, they have done a tonne of good (obviously for themselves as well), criticism should be fair and not just talking bollocks.
You’re right to an extent, they can always say that they massively improved the stadium and the training ground, the benefit of those decisions is tough to argue against. Moving forward however, they are no longer constrained by allocating finances towards such projects, so at a time when the squad is ageing, money has to go towards reinvigorating it. It’s the next two windows or a potential decline back into that 5-8 group.
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Offline Redric1970

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #211 on: October 25, 2022, 10:17:55 pm »
Just checked and I was wrong.

The debt as of the last accounts is £199.4m.

A secured bank loan of £128m and an inter-company loan of £71.4m.

Apologies for my mistake.


That’s still crazy Al they paid £300mil and we now have £200mil of debt, whilst the club is now worth £4billion that’s ridiculous.

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #212 on: October 25, 2022, 10:18:26 pm »
Moving forward however, they are no longer constrained by allocating finances towards such projects, so at a time when the squad is ageing, money has to go towards reinvigorating it. It’s the next two windows or a potential decline back into that 5-8 group.
Completely agree, we past the stage where we can't just muddle through, so this is where the backing needs to come in, and if it doesn't then it warrants legitimate criticism.
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Offline Garnier

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #213 on: October 25, 2022, 10:46:23 pm »
Surprised they haven't sold the club considering their FFP gamble didn't pay off + club at an all time high value.

Aren't venture capitalists those investors who take chances on undervalued assets to sell them further down the line once their value increase? I'm not a financial expert but maybe now should be the perfect time to sell?

Whatever the finances behind LFC's transfer spending are, i don't think FSG's approach will keep us in contention regardless of how much Jurgen & staff paper over the cracks - there's so much money in the PL that you can't simply financially outmuscle everybody.

They're not bad owners but they're not a good fit for where the club has been since 2020, in a constant position of WIN NOW on the biggest prizes.
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #214 on: October 25, 2022, 10:49:38 pm »
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #215 on: October 25, 2022, 10:54:07 pm »
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #216 on: October 25, 2022, 10:59:51 pm »
He saw the thread and it took him several hours to get psyched up. 

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #217 on: October 25, 2022, 11:06:36 pm »
You’re right to an extent, they can always say that they massively improved the stadium and the training ground, the benefit of those decisions is tough to argue against. Moving forward however, they are no longer constrained by allocating finances towards such projects, so at a time when the squad is ageing, money has to go towards reinvigorating it. It’s the next two windows or a potential decline back into that 5-8 group.

We still owe £70m for the Main Stand that was completed in 2016. The Anfield Road End will cost £80m and Sam Kennedy last Wednesday spoke about spending more to improve the facilities at the ground. If FSG doesn't start contributing to spending on infrastructure then the payments are going to continue for years. 
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #218 on: October 25, 2022, 11:26:51 pm »
So, how many times have these clubs finished higher than us in the past 4 seasons? Once. They've been splurging, betting the house in a desperate attempt to keep us with us and City.

Stop looking at others spending, the only thing that matters is whether we're improving our team living within our means.

Think we should just get rid of the whole squad and bring in some new players just so we can "win the transfer window"

This is an interesting one. Whenever our spending is compared to X club in Premier League it always turns into "well Everton/United/Forest/Leeds spent X and they're shit". It's a false equivalence. I'm not interested in how they spent it. I'm interested in the funds that were available to them in the first place, and why those funds aren't available to us. Because our scouting network, analytics, transfer crew, whatever, are elite. How often do we miss in the transfer market? Were you aghast when we spent 65m on Ali or 75m on VVD, or 40m~ on Fabinho, Diaz? No! Because we're good at making the most out of our money!

Yeah Everton and United spunked hundreds of millions down the drain. That doesn't mean spending money is bad. It means they're shit at spending money.
How other clubs spend their money is not the point - it's how much money they have to spend in the first place.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2022, 11:40:24 pm by Dench57 »
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #219 on: October 26, 2022, 12:09:19 am »
This is an interesting one. Whenever our spending is compared to X club in Premier League it always turns into "well Everton/United/Forest/Leeds spent X and they're shit". It's a false equivalence. I'm not interested in how they spent it. I'm interested in the funds that were available to them in the first place, and why those funds aren't available to us. Because our scouting network, analytics, transfer crew, whatever, are elite. How often do we miss in the transfer market? Were you aghast when we spent 65m on Ali or 75m on VVD, or 40m~ on Fabinho, Diaz? No! Because we're good at making the most out of our money!

Yeah Everton and United spunked hundreds of millions down the drain. That doesn't mean spending money is bad. It means they're shit at spending money.
How other clubs spend their money is not the point - it's how much money they have to spend in the first place.
This is the thing, we all know Everton have been spending money they haven't got. Wacking things on credit with no plan on how to pay it back is crazy. Utd had a ton of spare cash but now they are increasing their debt to maintain their "high end" lifestyle. Their revenue is still good but imo they are just a better resourced Everton.

It also ignores the sheer amounts we pay out when we buy players, extend contracts and pay wages. Its easy to spend £100m more on transfers (paid over the course of the contract) when your wage bill is £100m a year less.

The money in and out is all public information, so everything is accounted for.

The strength/weakness of FSG is that they've hardly sanctioned a putchase that couldn't be covered by a sale/additional prize money etc. Its good as we run a tight ship and its a massive weakness if you can't react to situations that could cost you more down the road.

I'd like them to loosen this a bit more - we can't afford to lose out on CL football just to save 30m that might help us.
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Offline Asam

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #220 on: October 26, 2022, 12:12:34 am »

How FSG can fix things for the future:

-Bring in a new partner who can invest significantly into the club
-Rebuild the medical team
-Become much more vocal and proactive about financial regulation of the sport, the state owned clubs are getting away with cheating & our owners/leaders are passive on the subject, this needs to be run like a fucking political campaign so it's in the news every day/every week, as it stands nobody gives a shit but us, if that doesn't change we will not change our position

 





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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #221 on: October 26, 2022, 01:09:33 am »
So, how many times have these clubs finished higher than us in the past 4 seasons? Once. They've been splurging, betting the house in a desperate attempt to keep us with us and City.

Stop looking at others spending, the only thing that matters is whether we're improving our team living within our means.

Think we should just get rid of the whole squad and bring in some new players just so we can "win the transfer window"

A bigger stadium was a pipedream for 20 odd years. We went one better by expanding Anfield, something no1 else was able to do. Bet FSG would've loved to have kept us at Melwood and saved the cash.

The stadium and Kirkby helps the fans and the players.

We have to stop this Trumpian view of FSG, they have done a tonne of good (obviously for themselves as well), criticism should be fair and not just talking bollocks.

Excellent post.

One additional point I would add is the way FSG manage their assets speaks to the way Henry was able to compound a relatively small investment over time to make his fortune in futures trading.

FSG's investment thesis just as any shrewd investors should be, is to identify 'positive expected return' opportunities in the transfer market.   

You buy players that the market undervalues the player's future value to be and ultimately over time if you get that right more times than not it increases cash flows and the value of the football club.  It has worked extraordinarily well for the most part.

Many worry that we will fall behind the pack if we do not retain our position in the top 4, but few seem to acknowledge that it was in fact the deliberate and methodical squad build and Klopp's ability as manager that got us to where we are today.  That squad build took seasons and if as it appears we are at the end of the cycle, it will again take seasons. 

It makes no economic/investment sense for FSG to start acting like Barcelona and throwing money around in the desperate hope that we might be able to sustain this success a little longer.  The reality that many fans may not be willing to accept is FSG are happy to ride the cycle of our success if that ensures that the value of the club is maintained and future longer term success is not impeded by "quick fix" signings that offer little to no value to the club.



Offline Waterpistol

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #222 on: October 26, 2022, 01:19:40 am »
I will never forgive them for letting us grow stale from a position of total strength.

The team we had from 2018 to 2021 was up there with the best in my lifetime. Sacchi Milan, Pep Barca, Zidane Madrid, and Klopp Liverpool. 8 world class players in one 11 - Ali, Trent, Virgil, Robbo, Fabinho, Thiago, Salah, Mane. All that needed was minor tweaks. We could have had Enzo Fernandez and Bruno Guimarães for about £50m total. We would be set up again and rolling.

That is just in the last 12 months. Look at the state of the bench in Kiev 2018. Look at those near miss titles in 2014, 2019 and last season:

We were linked with, but did not buy, a forward player in January 2014. Suarez was on his last legs and Sturridge injured by the final straight.

We go so, so close in 2018/2019 and a few silly draws cost us (Goodison 0-0 still bothers me). Once Coutinho was gone, teams knew there was a lack of imagination in our midfield and well organised teams could frustrate us. Henderson was ponderous on the ball against such sides and having a different profile of midfielder, even on the bench to replace him in those games, could have been the difference. We lose the title by a point.

We bring in Adrian on a bosman as there's no money to buy a back up. He costs us big time against Atletico in 2019/20.

2020/2021 - we go into the season with 3 centre halves, 2 of them injury prone. We lose all three of them. We are actually top with Matip and Henderson at CB somehow at one stage. Now imagine we'd bought a 4th choice or even moved one of the injury prone ones on as well as Lovren, and bought two (like well organized clubs would do).

And then last season. Gini goes, a terribly underrated player - EXACTLY the type we should be able to pick up whenever we need to refresh things (£20-35m, versatile attributes, international). We sign no one. We massively miss his defensive screening and ability to stop transitions - we drop many silly points in the first half of the season (remember Brighton at home? West Ham away? Brentford away?) and we lose the title by a point. They DO actually sign Diaz that January and what happens? The entire club is lifted by it. Players go on record saying there is a buzz from the new signing (think it was Salah or Virgil who said as much), and we now have City level options up front...it pushes us back into a title race and we have a great second half to the season...why did they not learn from this?

Bottom line, if we were top of the net spend (apart from City, United and Chelsea) we would have another 2 league titles and a European Cup, minimum.

So, now that the great Klopp team of 18-21 is done, what next? Well they have one final transfer window to not mess things up. They simply have to strengthen us in January or we will not make top 4. That is the bare minimum that they need to do now. Miss out this season and it will be very very hard to get back into it with Newcastle getting stronger every window and the others catching us up.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2022, 01:22:07 am by Waterpistol »

Offline Kundale

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #223 on: October 26, 2022, 02:09:19 am »
Excellent post.

One additional point I would add is the way FSG manage their assets speaks to the way Henry was able to compound a relatively small investment over time to make his fortune in futures trading.

FSG's investment thesis just as any shrewd investors should be, is to identify 'positive expected return' opportunities in the transfer market.   

You buy players that the market undervalues the player's future value to be and ultimately over time if you get that right more times than not it increases cash flows and the value of the football club.  It has worked extraordinarily well for the most part.

Many worry that we will fall behind the pack if we do not retain our position in the top 4, but few seem to acknowledge that it was in fact the deliberate and methodical squad build and Klopp's ability as manager that got us to where we are today.  That squad build took seasons and if as it appears we are at the end of the cycle, it will again take seasons. 

It makes no economic/investment sense for FSG to start acting like Barcelona and throwing money around in the desperate hope that we might be able to sustain this success a little longer.  The reality that many fans may not be willing to accept is FSG are happy to ride the cycle of our success if that ensures that the value of the club is maintained and future longer term success is not impeded by "quick fix" signings that offer little to no value to the club.
I might have missed it, but is anyone asking FSG to spend like Barcelona?

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #224 on: October 26, 2022, 04:11:21 am »
FSG can be shrewd businessmen, they can also be tight as hell.

The one thing I can say is that I happen to know one of John Henry's personal assistants in Boston. She is a Liverpool fan before the club was bought and yet when she wants to go to games, she gets sent a bill to pay by her boss for the cost of tickets.
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Offline newterp

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #225 on: October 26, 2022, 04:16:25 am »
Pass me 500 paracetamol, a noose, a large amount  of unrefined heroin, two sawn of shotguns and a choc ice please.

That's get you through hours 1 and maybe 2. Then what?

Offline Solomon Grundy

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #226 on: October 26, 2022, 04:24:50 am »
Surprised they haven't sold the club considering their FFP gamble didn't pay off + club at an all time high value.

Aren't venture capitalists those investors who take chances on undervalued assets to sell them further down the line once their value increase? I'm not a financial expert but maybe now should be the perfect time to sell?

Whatever the finances behind LFC's transfer spending are, i don't think FSG's approach will keep us in contention regardless of how much Jurgen & staff paper over the cracks - there's so much money in the PL that you can't simply financially outmuscle everybody.

They're not bad owners but they're not a good fit for where the club has been since 2020, in a constant position of WIN NOW on the biggest prizes.

Probably not that many about who'll pay the asking price and back the manager with huge amounts of money for players each season.

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #227 on: October 26, 2022, 04:26:36 am »
I really wonder what all the people who are now saying that our midfield is beyond salvage or that the team needs an ‘overhaul’ or any number of things were saying on the eve of last season’s champions’ league final?
I remember telling my friend on our way to Paris from the stadium after the final that unlike in 2018 where you can see that we're just starting, this one felt like an end of an era and everyone of our group agreed.

Our momentum pushed us the last ten games or so of last season but it was apparent that we needed reinforcements.
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #228 on: October 26, 2022, 05:44:12 am »
What impact do we think the pandemic had on two key things;  firstly, the amount of success we got from the squad we had in terms of trophies won, and secondly, the investment into the squad when revenue was compromised and the confidence in future revenue was affected?

Personally, I think we're sitting on a significant investment into the squad which has been saved up to allow us to overhaul the core of the first team in a short period of time (we've started with Konate, Diaz and Nunez).  I think this is a result of the pandemic.  We are bringing through a few young players who will be central to the squad in the next few years and establishing a new forward line.  Add two top players in their mid 20s to our midfield and our squad looks brilliant.

In order for this to work, we have to buy the right players at the right price and find players who are hungry to play for the sporting project rather than the money.  They will still earn significant sums of money, just not the ridiculous amounts that are paid by clubs subsidised by the national wealth of other countries.

If we had been able to add the right players this summer, we would have.  We still have a very strong squad and are well placed financially to remain competitive in the long term.  I much rather this sporting project than sitting where Man City are with their non-sporting project.  When we win (which we have and still will) it is a far better achievement.

A lot of the negativity in the discussions on here are based on the results we've seen.  Let's be honest, we've been pretty crap this season when compared to recent years.  I'd argue the issues in our results are a perfect storm of factors and not purely down to not buying lots of new players.

1. We've got lots of injuries
2. A few big players have dropped their levels (this is a whole discussion in itself)
3. We've had a run of bad luck (or poor individual errors/decisions) and bad timing of these

The overall effect of these things is that the psychological state of the squad (and fan base) is damaged.  Where you need composure and flow, you've got players either trying to force things or second guessing themselves.

Where the low rate of player turnover is having an effect is that things haven't been freshened up as much as possibly they could have been.  There's a lot to be said for changing a group by bringing new faces and personalities into it.  There's also the pressure on starting spots that can be applied by creating competition for places and a new hunger you get from players who haven't been there and done it.  This is such a difficult balance to get right though.  You can get it right like Dalglish or  wrong like Souness.

I've digressed from the thread a bit here, so to bring it back, the squad needs investment, but the player turnover needs to be carefully managed and done over a period of time with the right people being brought in (skill sets and personalities).  We've got the budget to do so because the club is well run and structured. I think we'll see it happen over the next 18 months so be patient and enjoy the ride because we've still got a lot to enjoy with the current group of players.

Offline latortuga

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #229 on: October 26, 2022, 06:35:20 am »
I might have missed it, but is anyone asking FSG to spend like Barcelona?

You miss my point and need to incorporate that reference in relation to the overall point of the post, which in simple terms is, FSG won't spend if they don't think they are finding value in the market.  You could argue that Alisson was around his true market value, but to my eye he was the exception.

So yes, by fans demanding FSG spend they are asking FSG to emulate Barcelona by buying anything and anyone to fill spots.  Perhaps fans need to realise that we aren't spending because we are waiting for the right players at the right valuation.  Whether you agree with that method or not doesn't matter, that is how FSG operate and as I summarised it has lead us to this point so far.

IMO the reason most fans take issue with this is because of what Man City have done to distort the market.  Pre-City this wouldn't have been a problem, but now everyone wants us to compete with City.  FSG aren't going to do that.


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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #230 on: October 26, 2022, 07:04:20 am »
He saw the thread and it took him several hours to get psyched up. 
Reckon he did press ups & run to get prepped for this & then insert the Jim Carrey God Almighty typing gif as he starts.

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #231 on: October 26, 2022, 07:24:26 am »
You miss my point and need to incorporate that reference in relation to the overall point of the post, which in simple terms is, FSG won't spend if they don't think they are finding value in the market.  You could argue that Alisson was around his true market value, but to my eye he was the exception.

So yes, by fans demanding FSG spend they are asking FSG to emulate Barcelona by buying anything and anyone to fill spots.  Perhaps fans need to realise that we aren't spending because we are waiting for the right players at the right valuation.  Whether you agree with that method or not doesn't matter, that is how FSG operate and as I summarised it has lead us to this point so far.

IMO the reason most fans take issue with this is because of what Man City have done to distort the market.  Pre-City this wouldn't have been a problem, but now everyone wants us to compete with City.  FSG aren't going to do that.

You’ve been lapping up them Hogan soundbites left right and centre.

Lets assess the history of this ‘right player at  the right value’ fallacy.

Right player, right value.

Robertson
Wijnaldum
Tsmikas
Matip
Konate
Fabinho

Wrong player, right value

Minamino
Origi
Shaq
Artur
Kabak
Davies
Adrian
Karius
Thiago
Grujic

Right player, wrong value (ie overpaid at the time)- Disclaimer, this is in no way indicative of their current market value or worth to us during their time here.

Virgil
Allison
Nunez
Diaz
Sadio Mane
Jota

Wrong player, wrong value

Keita
Ox

Constantly trying to find this right player at the right value has led to us having a bloated squad packed full of deadwood over the years. When we spend the money (usually over the odds), it tends to pay off.

To summarise, when we actually spend like we’re supposed to; we tend to nail it. When we penny pinch, it bites us on the arse.

« Last Edit: October 26, 2022, 07:28:13 am by T.Mills »

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #232 on: October 26, 2022, 07:40:43 am »
The pandemic and then more importantly the failure to launch ESL has put a massive hole in their bucket. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if one day out of nowhere we wake up to news of the club sold and them moving along to their next "asset" after they've a made few billion. ESL is probably inevitable in some form but it's a good 5-8 years away at least and i can't see them hanging around waiting.
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #233 on: October 26, 2022, 07:43:56 am »
Some interesting points but I don’t think we overpaid for Mane. Have a look at other transfers at the time and it was the going rate for a player with premier league experience.
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #234 on: October 26, 2022, 08:11:56 am »
FSG can be shrewd businessmen, they can also be tight as hell.

The one thing I can say is that I happen to know one of John Henry's personal assistants in Boston. She is a Liverpool fan before the club was bought and yet when she wants to go to games, she gets sent a bill to pay by her boss for the cost of tickets.

I remember telling my friend on our way to Paris from the stadium after the final that unlike in 2018 where you can see that we're just starting, this one felt like an end of an era and everyone of our group agreed.

Our momentum pushed us the last ten games or so of last season but it was apparent that we needed reinforcements.

:D
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #235 on: October 26, 2022, 08:30:08 am »
It makes no economic/investment sense for FSG to start acting like Barcelona and throwing money around in the desperate hope that we might be able to sustain this success a little longer.  The reality that many fans may not be willing to accept is FSG are happy to ride the cycle of our success if that ensures that the value of the club is maintained and future longer term success is not impeded by "quick fix" signings that offer little to no value to the club.

Jesus, the shit some people will swallow...
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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #236 on: October 26, 2022, 08:39:22 am »
Excellent post.

One additional point I would add is the way FSG manage their assets speaks to the way Henry was able to compound a relatively small investment over time to make his fortune in futures trading.

FSG's investment thesis just as any shrewd investors should be, is to identify 'positive expected return' opportunities in the transfer market.   

You buy players that the market undervalues the player's future value to be and ultimately over time if you get that right more times than not it increases cash flows and the value of the football club.  It has worked extraordinarily well for the most part.

Many worry that we will fall behind the pack if we do not retain our position in the top 4, but few seem to acknowledge that it was in fact the deliberate and methodical squad build and Klopp's ability as manager that got us to where we are today.  That squad build took seasons and if as it appears we are at the end of the cycle, it will again take seasons. 

It makes no economic/investment sense for FSG to start acting like Barcelona and throwing money around in the desperate hope that we might be able to sustain this success a little longer.  The reality that many fans may not be willing to accept is FSG are happy to ride the cycle of our success if that ensures that the value of the club is maintained and future longer term success is not impeded by "quick fix" signings that offer little to no value to the club.

This for me is where the discussion of our owners and transfer strategy fails. Examples are brought up to exemplify two possible states. One the super frugal owners and then the over spending no limit owners.

Where’s the middle ground? How can we continue with a lot of what they’re doing good but add or tweak a few things to make it even better. That’s what a lot of the good posts on here are talking about, such as:
- Take more risks. In transfers and business (write off debt, FSG paying for more infrastructure and let the revenue go to transfers .   
- Return to buying breakout talents a la Salah, Mane, Konate, etc over the hyped Jude Bellingham’s of the world
- Capitalise when you’re riding high and success is at your feet, don’t get too fat and happy
- Be cautious about handing out big fat contracts to players in their 30s
- Always try to find that edge, as we are not and shouldn’t be the free spending City’s of the world

So no, we are not gonna be the next City, PSG, Barcelona or even Man Utd. But surely there areas we can learn from and do differently moving forward?


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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #237 on: October 26, 2022, 08:41:30 am »
You’ve been lapping up them Hogan soundbites left right and centre.

Lets assess the history of this ‘right player at  the right value’ fallacy.

Right player, right value.

Robertson
Wijnaldum
Tsmikas
Matip
Konate
Fabinho

Wrong player, right value

Minamino
Origi
Shaq
Artur
Kabak
Davies
Adrian
Karius
Thiago
Grujic

Right player, wrong value (ie overpaid at the time)- Disclaimer, this is in no way indicative of their current market value or worth to us during their time here.

Virgil
Allison
Nunez
Diaz
Sadio Mane
Jota

Wrong player, wrong value

Keita
Ox

Constantly trying to find this right player at the right value has led to us having a bloated squad packed full of deadwood over the years. When we spend the money (usually over the odds), it tends to pay off.

To summarise, when we actually spend like we’re supposed to; we tend to nail it. When we penny pinch, it bites us on the arse.
I'd personally categorise some of those players differently.

Minamino and Origi were ideal backup squad players for their price - low risk, potential to develop, resale value, and they both scored some very important goals for us (especially Origi). Thiago was a bargain and a no-brainer at £20m, and only his injuries have prevented him being a mainstay - he wasn't the age profile many thought we'd go for, but £20m is pocket change in this market for a player of his class - especially as Keita/Ox were so unreliable at the time.

I don't think Mane and Diaz were overpriced - especially in a market where Diaz cost less than half a Grealish. I think Jota and Nunez cost more than we perhaps expected (given where they were at in their development), but Virg and Alisson were bang on in my view - just pay whatever it takes as they were clearly boss and ideal for us.

As for Ox and Keita - most were excited about both of them - especially Keita who looked like the next big thing aged 22. Ox had injuries prior to joining, but I don't think he was the 'wrong player' for us - a dynamic midfielder than can break the lines and score goals would been ideal in a Jurgen team if he wasn't permacrocked.

I think all our issues are much less about who we bought, but more about when we bought them and their injuries since. It's obvious now in hindsight, but if we'd bought Konate instead of Jota in summer 2020, that season might've turned out differently for example. Similarly if we'd bought a midfielder in 2021 (although hindsight is always 20:20).

Anyway, I digress - this thread is more about FSG rather than who Jurgen bought. We can't really blame them for buying players like Keita if Jurgen was raving about him in 2016 - regardless of how his career with us has turned out since signing.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2022, 08:44:30 am by keyop »
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Offline plura

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #238 on: October 26, 2022, 08:41:47 am »
Snip

Hard to say that Mane was wrong value. £34m was a lot more them than now sure, but in no way overpaying by normal market prices then

Offline na fir dearg

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Re: FSG discussion thread
« Reply #239 on: October 26, 2022, 08:42:07 am »
This for me is where the discussion of our owners and transfer strategy fails. Examples are brought up to exemplify two possible states. One the super frugal owners and then the over spending no limit owners.

Where’s the middle ground? How can we continue with a lot of what they’re doing good but add or tweak a few things to make it even better. That’s what a lot of the good posts on here are talking about, such as:
- Take more risks. In transfers and business (write off debt, FSG paying for more infrastructure and let the revenue go to transfers .   
- Return to buying breakout talents a la Salah, Mane, Konate, etc over the hyped Jude Bellingham’s of the world
- Capitalise when you’re riding high and success is at your feet, don’t get too fat and happy
- Be cautious about handing out big fat contracts to players in their 30s
- Always try to find that edge, as we are not and shouldn’t be the free spending City’s of the world

So no, we are not gonna be the next City, PSG, Barcelona or even Man Utd. But surely there areas we can learn from and do differently moving forward?

welcome to the modern world, there is no middle ground - pick a side