Topic: General Political discussion with kesey-style vibes & tantric breathing stuff...

[TepidT2O]

The owen Jones effect

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1084553313117446146?s=21

The spectator is weird. 

It has some utterly sensational stuff in it and some dreadful stuff.. 

[Lush is the best medicine...]

The spectator is weird. 

It has some utterly sensational stuff in it and some dreadful stuff.. 

of course, liddle and Brendan O’Neill for two of the latter, but I do find it funny that owen kicking off in that manner ended up helping the spectator, which of course was the total opposite of what he wanted

[Zeb]

Peter Kellner's got some troubled thoughts about what he's been seeing in the polling. Relates to another thread we had on the go about fractures in society not so long back too.

Something odd, and possibly dangerous, is eating away at the fabric of British politics. Brexit, of course, has much to do with it, but the consequences could be with us long after the current crisis is resolved, one way or another.

Signs of the malaise can be clearly seen in an exclusive survey for UnHerd conducted by Deltapoll. It shows a remarkable lack of faith in both main party leaders, not just by voters generally but by high proportions of their own voters. Loyalties are being tested as never before. 

In the past, one party leader has occasionally had a shaky reputation among their own supporters on one or two characteristics. In the early 1980s, many Labour voters thought Michael Foot was weak; towards the end of her premiership, many Tories considered Margaret Thatcher out of touch. But I have never seen so many supporters of both parties simultaneously hold such low opinions of their own leaders across the board. 

Here is the evidence. The following table shows the main findings.



...

To put these figures in context, a successful leader would expect average scores of around 80% among their party’s own voters and 40% among the general public. For both leaders to fall so far short of these figures should set off alarm bells in both parties.

Here, though, is the paradox. Precisely because both leaders have terrible ratings, the scale of the problem is less obvious than it would be if only one was doing badly. In that case (as when Foot led Labour and towards the end of Thatcher’s premiership), their party would have support well below 30% in the polls and facing a landslide defeat. Instead, nothing much seems to have changed since the 2017 election. An average of recent polls shows the two parties still close together, and with almost as many supporters as 18 months ago. The high commands in both parties, though plainly struggling over Brexit, see no wider reason to panic.

In truth, they should be terrified. For the poll shows that the disenchantment with the main parties and their leaders has spread throughout Britain. Within Westminster, it is rare to find any backbench Labour or Conservative MP who, giving their candid views in private, will say their leader is any good or that their party is in anything other than deep trouble. But some hope this despair is a feature of the Westminster bubble, and that real voters away from London have not changed their views of politicians and parties that much.

In fact, it is increasingly hard to avoid the conclusion that millions of voters Left and Right are losing faith in the people who either govern us today or aspire to do so in the future.

He then goes on to point to how our electoral system prevents gradual realignments.

It is, of course, possible that when the Brexit drama has played out, normal service will resume. Perhaps May and Corbyn will both be replaced by leaders who have greater personal appeal to the electorate.

I am not so sure. My reason is that May and Corbyn’s truly awful ratings do not flow solely from their personal attributes. Both lead deeply divided parties, and these divisions are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. The faultlines will remain: inward-looking nationalism versus outward-looking enterprise with the Tories; ambitious socialism versus progressive capitalism with Labour. A leader that combined the strategic ability of Napoleon with the genius of Einstein and the moral courage of Mandela would still struggle to win public approval if they could not reunite their parties. The Deltapoll figures providence symptoms of a deeper crisis.

He's not the first sensible person to raise this issue from the evidence in front of them. If the British centre ground is slightly left of centre on economics and slightly right on social issues then it seems hard to see how the parties hold on long-term when they're heading off to solely cater for bases well away from that point of reference.

[TepidT2O]

YouGov / Times latest also in this story

Latest You gov polling ...  wow..  that’s baaaaad

Tories have 6 point lead over Lab

Tories 41
Lab 35
Lib Dems 11
UKIP 4

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1084789188942278656?s=21

I can’t believe that site is free

[Zeb]

YouGov / Times latest also in this story

Latest You gov polling ...  wow..  that’s baaaaad

Tories have 6 point lead over Lab

Tories 41 (+1)
Lab 35 (-3)
Lib Dems 11 (+2)
UKIP 4

(edited in changes from 3rd/4th December)

Apparently Labour's dropping both Remain and Leave voters in equal proportions to their size in the Labour vote. Just that there's a lot more remain voters than leave ones who vote(d) Labour.

[Alan_X]

(edited in changes from 3rd/4th December)

Apparently Labour's dropping both Remain and Leave voters in equal proportions to their size in the Labour vote. Just that there's a lot more remain voters than leave ones who vote(d) Labour.

Hmm... who could have foreseen that?


(Apart from anyone with a fucking brain).

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1085126969702912003?s=21

Mason v the morning star, could get juicy this

[Yorkykopite]

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1085126969702912003?s=21

Mason v the morning star, could get juicy this

I always enjoy seeing the Morning Star lecturing people on the nature of democracy.

But, even more, I do enjoy a good old-fashioned fratricidal conflict on the Far Left. The words 'show trial', 'ice pick', 'Stalinist purge', 'Trotskyite wrecker' can never be used enough. The one and only good thing that would come from a socialist revolution in Britain would be that, within the week, half of the revolutionaries would have been garrotted by the other half.

[The Gulleysucker]

... I do enjoy a good old-fashioned fratricidal conflict on the Far Left.

It's always excellent entertainment to observe from the sidelines.

Did you see this hurled at the Music Teacher...

You are a floundering, pro-EU, pro-NATO, Blairite tool of the establishment.

Perhaps the real fight starts now...

[So… Howard Philips]

I always enjoy seeing the Morning Star lecturing people on the nature of democracy.

But, even more, I do enjoy a good old-fashioned fratricidal conflict on the Far Left. The words 'show trial', 'ice pick', 'Stalinist purge', 'Trotskyite wrecker' can never be used enough. The one and only good thing that would come from a socialist revolution in Britain would be that, within the week, half of the revolutionaries would have been garrotted by the other half.

And then half of the remaining half will send the other half to a re education camp and on and on ad infinitum.......

[Yorkykopite]

And then half of the remaining half will send the other half to a re education camp and on and on ad infinitum.......

Leaving the Supreme Leader who, if things are really done properly, can continue to dictate from his mausoleum (North Korea style).

[CornerFlag]

QT panel has Abbott and Oakeshott.  Could be interesting and yet abhorrent.

My ideal QT panel:
Caroline Lucas, The Wetherspoons Dickhead, Keir Starmer, Vince Cable, and the MP for Congleton (for shits and giggles with her name).

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Though oakeshott usually got paired with thornberry, has been quite entertaining when it’s happened

[Zeb]

Anand Menon's on the panel tonight. Not a good person to have sat there if you're tempted to parade a Brexit unicorn in front of the audience. Could actually be good because he's pure impartial when he's talking as an academic.

[killer-heels]

Anand Menon's on the panel tonight. Not a good person to have sat there if you're tempted to parade a Brexit unicorn in front of the audience. Could actually be good because he's pure impartial when he's talking as an academic.

I have only ever seen and heard him talk impartially. Has he had some moments where he hasn't?

[Zeb]

I have only ever seen and heard him talk impartially. Has he had some moments where he hasn't?

Don't start him on Leeds United or Bielsa.

[OneTouchFooty]

Anand Menon's on the panel tonight. Not a good person to have sat there if you're tempted to parade a Brexit unicorn in front of the audience. Could actually be good because he's pure impartial when he's talking as an academic.

Hopefully puts Oakeshott in her place when she starts talking shite and shouting over people again. No idea why she’s given a season ticket on every political panel shows to shill for her Tory paymasters, regularly exposed for how little she understands and is simply there for uniformed ranting and attempts to derail discussion.

[Zeb]

Was interesting that. Not least because you got the feeling that everyone else on the panel knew that if they made a truly shifty claim that Bruce would go straight to Menon to factcheck them. Was Oakeshott more restrained than she has been too? Seemed that way. On a pure human level, felt for Abbott.

[killer-heels]

Was interesting that. Not least because you got the feeling that everyone else on the panel knew that if they made a truly shifty claim that Bruce would go straight to Menon to factcheck them. Was Oakeshott more restrained than she has been too? Seemed that way. On a pure human level, felt for Abbott.

Yep, Menon was great. He also wins the award for the best explained (and timed) description of a no deal scenario ever after the idiots were cheering a no deal. Having those real life examples (rolls royce, that convo with the woman about insurance over ireland) also fleshed it out really well.

In terms of Oakeshott, i actually thought she and Stewart revealed a lot. Asked to describe the lines they would blur, she said she couldnt care about the backstop and he said everything but immigration. You saw how irate she got talking about freedom of movement and it illustrated a lot of how real brexiteers see immigration.

Trade and trade deals, most people dont give a shit about. Somehow, as long as someone nails immigration, the public will by in large live with that form of Brexit.

[OneTouchFooty]

Now just imagine there are people in every town in Britain like Derby last night, clueless about what no deal fully entails whilst cheering it at the same time. All Oakeshott could do was scoff and smugly gurn as Menon explained things clearly and concisely.

Someone used a good analogy about the situation.. basically these people decided to throw a live grenade at the establishment elite but they’ve just simply caught it and thrown it right back at them.

[Nobby Reserve]

Why do Labour let Abbot out in public without a gag?

FFS.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Same applies for Williamson, burgon, long Bailey etc etc

[S]

Why do Labour let Abbot out in public without a gag?

FFS.

I agree with the sentiment, but at the same time I thought the treatment she got last night on Question Time seemed unusually hostile for a guest. I'm not easily outraged, but for me it went beyond the usual reactions one gets when their views go against those of the crowd. It's the job of the host to manage the atmosphere and give everyone an equal opportunity to articulate their views, even if those views are unpopular or misjudged.

Interested to see if anyone else picked up on that or if it was just my interpretation.

[Yorkykopite]

I agree with the sentiment, but at the same time I thought the treatment she got last night on Question Time seemed unusually hostile for a guest. I'm not easily outraged, but for me it went beyond the usual reactions one gets when their views go against those of the crowd. It's the job of the host to manage the atmosphere and give everyone an equal opportunity to articulate their views, even if those views are unpopular or misjudged.

Interested to see if anyone else picked up on that or if it was just my interpretation.

It's possible she got slightly harsher treatment than others and it's likely she was 'bullied' because she is a bit stupid and has consistently shown her stupidity over the last year or so. Maybe that's not fair. But it's not racism. No one would think of treating Chuka Umunna and David Lammy like that, or Lisa Nandy and Baroness Amos. They demand a certain respect because they are hugely capable, regardless whether you agree with their politics or not. But poor old Di has that un-winning combination of arrogance and incompetence and people react against that. 

It's banner headline and front page news in the Morning Star by the way. That'll teach the MSM.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/18/diane-abbott-accuses-bbc-question-time-of-legitimising-racism

You keep getting interrupted because you take forever to make a point and the others can do it concisely, the Asian man at the other end doesn’t get interrupted like you does he?

Absolute disgrace seeing these tits use the race card to cover up her utter incompetence and their incompetence putting her forward

[The Gulleysucker]

I'll put it here to avoid disturbing the seriousness of the Brexit thread...

[Robinred]

I'll put it here to avoid disturbing the seriousness of the Brexit thread...

Lol - for the first time in ages.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Not often I credit labour but they’ve kicked out the MP who got done for those driving offences last year, tight majority there so had they kept her they’d have definitely lost

[WhereAngelsPlay]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/18/diane-abbott-accuses-bbc-question-time-of-legitimising-racism

You keep getting interrupted because you take forever to make a point and the others can do it concisely, the Asian man at the other end doesn’t get interrupted like you does he?

Absolute disgrace seeing these tits use the race card to cover up her utter incompetence and their incompetence putting her forward

She is an embarrassment and only on the front bench because Jezza slipped her his length.


Does that statement make me racist ?

[TepidT2O]

She is an embarrassment and only on the front bench because Jezza slipped her his length.


Does that statement make me racist ?

I totally disagree.

Corbyn and Abbott shagging has no bearing on her being on the front bench.  Did he sleep with some of the other incompetent fuckwits?  No. They’re all there because they’re hot to trot.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

I totally disagree.

Corbyn and Abbott shagging has no bearing on her being on the front bench.  Did he sleep with some of the other incompetent fuckwits?  No. They’re all there because they’re hot to trot.

Eeew that's one sex tape I wouldn't want to watch.

[killer-heels]

Diane Abbott is rubbish and she can only blame herself for that. But she is pretty arrogant as well.

Last election the Labour party stopped many of her appearances because of a number of high profile gaffes. But she ignored all those and went and got herself on Sky news and ended up having one of the cringiest and terrible performances ever when Murnagan grilled her on terrorism defences in London.

It was such a bad performance and things like that can hurt a parties chances. Either know what you are talking about or take the break the party instructed you to do.

[Yorkykopite]

Diane Abbott is rubbish and she can only blame herself for that. But she is pretty arrogant as well.

But you think every politician is rubbish.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/150-000-members-desert-labour-in-brexit-backlash-nvt8fgwfs

Probably explains the nastiness and patheticness that’s come out of them recently, looks like jezza is a dead duck

[gemofabird]

QT thread still locked since April??

Post it here as every other relevant thread seems to be locked too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1086691126411702274

[Lush is the best medicine...]

QT thread still locked since April??

Post it here as every other relevant thread seems to be locked too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1086691126411702274

will be surprised if she’s still in a job next week after such a heinous error!

Must be disappointing as so many of the corbynistas were loving her a week earlier for tearing into the Tory Party chair yet became a Tory shill last week! Or of course you should really be asking why the Labour Party are putting forward the worst person possible for this type of show, but hey

[Trada]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/150-000-members-desert-labour-in-brexit-backlash-nvt8fgwfs

Probably explains the nastiness and patheticness that’s come out of them recently, looks like jezza is a dead duck

Jennie Formby
‏ @JennieGenSec

This is total fabrication. More people are joining Labour every week than resigning. I’m proud to be GS of a mass membership party that is building a social movement for change

[oldfordie]

Jennie Formby
‏ @JennieGenSec

This is total fabrication. More people are joining Labour every week than resigning. I’m proud to be GS of a mass membership party that is building a social movement for change

Interesting, I wonder how many just stopped paying their subs but still classed as members, not easy leaving the party, can't just click a button and leave, wouldn't be arsed writing to local CLP, will just cancel my subs.

[OneTouchFooty]

Interesting, I wonder how many just stopped paying their subs but still classed as members, not easy leaving the party, can't just click a button and leave, wouldn't be arsed writing to local CLP, will just cancel my subs.

Stopped paying my subs a year ago, still get the letters through the door though. Probably loads more still showing as active members who’ve fucked them off.