Topic: Cabinet starts day-long Chequers summit to finalise Brexit plan (**)

[Trada]

Peter Geoghegan
‏ @PeterKGeoghegan

Peter Geoghegan Retweeted Jo Maugham QC

I hinted at this earlier but seeing as it's now in public domain... tomorrow, in Belfast, Theresa May is going to announce that Northern Irish backstop proposal - which she signed up to in December - is dead. Language is provocative. Brussels will surely interpret as bad faith

[oldfordie]

Labour have come under a little pressure over a second referendum since the close votes the other night and the revelations that the Leave campaign broke the law during the campaign. Fortunately, Thornberry is there to clear up Labour's position:

HuffPost

All a bit too chukjibeop for me, but meh.

Shame they never thought about this after the referendum as it's a good point, so why did they start lying after the referendum. why didn't they just start arguing what they believed, we won't get a deal that protects jobs and the economy unless we are prepared to drop our red lines.

"We have to leave, we don’t want to leave, we weren’t the liars, we weren’t the manipulators, we didn’t have any lies on the side of buses, we weren’t pushing to leave the European Union, we were campaigning to remain in the European Union.

“We are internationalists and we believe that we are European. The trouble is we went ahead and had a referendum and we lost it and overwhelmingly, above everything else, we are Democrats, so we have to do as instructed - as much as it breaks our heart"

[ShakaHislop]

Labour have come under a little pressure over a second referendum since the close votes the other night and the revelations that the Leave campaign broke the law during the campaign. Fortunately, Thornberry is there to clear up Labour's position:

HuffPost

All a bit too chukjibeop for me, but meh.

“We need to have a Labour government that will be pragmatic. That will turn up in Brussels and say ‘the grown-ups have arrived’. Let’s work out what we are going to do.

 

[killer-heels]

Julian Smith did break the pairing rules. So much for an honest mistake.

[killer-heels]

They were talking about No Deal scenarios on Newsnight. They dont actually seem that bad.

[oldfordie]

They were talking about No Deal scenarios on Newsnight. They dont actually seem that bad.

Am waiting for the punchline, is it a joke

[Robinred]

They were talking about No Deal scenarios on Newsnight. They dont actually seem that bad.

They also had an Evan Davies interview with Tony Blair. He was unequivocal about how disastrous a no-deal Brexit would be; and rightly so.

In fact it was an impressive performance by Blair, and reminded this observer how lucid and clear-headed he is, and how largely misrepresented his legacy has become. How British Politics could do with someone with his skills right now.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

She's a Zelig and positioning herself in pole position for the game of succession.

shes also an embarrassment to labour’s housing policies with her own actions

[ShakaHislop]

Brexit: Tell EU the Chequers plan is final offer, says Leadsom

Brussels must be told that the prime minister's blueprint for future UK-EU relations is "the final offer", Commons leader Andrea Leadsom has said.

Mrs Leadsom told The House magazine the Chequers plan must be taken seriously or the EU risked a "no deal" Brexit.

She said it was incumbent on the government to "make the case" for the Chequers agreement - but that the EU must know that it was a final offer.

"The EU has simply not taken us seriously so far in terms of the future agreement.

"What this deal does is it says to them, 'right, now we can have a free trading area where there won't be the need for border checks and controls'.

"It's saying to the EU, 'you better take this seriously'. In my view, it's take this seriously or we are heading for no deal. The message to the EU has to be, 'this is the final offer'."

She said the EU were not going to "wriggle away at it and we're going to accept it. It is a very hard and fast offer to the EU that makes sense for them.

"But if they don't accept it, we're also ramping up our no deal preparations. That's where we will be heading and they will have forced us to do that.

"My message to the EU is, 'take this seriously because otherwise, you're forcing us down the road of no deal'."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44890199

[oldfordie]

They also had an Evan Davies interview with Tony Blair. He was unequivocal about how disastrous a no-deal Brexit would be; and rightly so.

In fact it was an impressive performance by Blair, and reminded this observer how lucid and clear-headed he is, and how largely misrepresented his legacy has become. How British Politics could do with someone with his skills right now.

Yeah I watched a lot of the interview, brilliant.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Brexit: Tell EU the Chequers plan is final offer, says Leadsom

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44890199

ah the delusion of the brexiteers over Britain’s place in the world

[Zeb]

Peter Geoghegan
‏ @PeterKGeoghegan

Peter Geoghegan Retweeted Jo Maugham QC

I hinted at this earlier but seeing as it's now in public domain... tomorrow, in Belfast, Theresa May is going to announce that Northern Irish backstop proposal - which she signed up to in December - is dead. Language is provocative. Brussels will surely interpret as bad faith

Surprise from some on this is curious. Not sure what was expected. Not sure Geoghegan is correct as what May is saying was actually already set out in the December agreement. Question still comes down to what precisely is her alternative which is acceptable to the EU, and when her attempts to postpone the inevitable moment of decision come to an end. Important thing which doesn't seem to have changed is that the needs of NI will set the minimum bar for the entire country. That's the key which even Boris and Davis have now recognised they need to find a way to dick with.

[BobOnATank]

Surprise from some on this is curious. Not sure what was expected. Not sure Geoghegan is correct as what May is saying was actually already set out in the December agreement. Question still comes down to what precisely is her alternative which is acceptable to the EU, and when her attempts to postpone the inevitable moment of decision come to an end. Important thing which doesn't seem to have changed is that the needs of NI will set the minimum bar for the entire country. That's the key which even Boris and Davis have now recognised they need to find a way to dick with.

Its quite clear now that May sees the NI issue as the only chink in the EU armour and therefore they are going to use it as a pawn/a wedge in the negotiating strategy. They tried the whole UK option under the NI exception but that was given short shrift by the EU so now they are keeping the wedge in the door - push us too hard and we'll create a hard border is the threat hoping that the EU back down while talking soft shite words about its "not our fault". In England that will be bought by idiots/casual observers/leavers/remainers who consider it too much thought to bother complaining - the rest they will ignore. In NI it will be seen what it really is no matter want you culturally identify as. It is a very dangerous game.

[Zeb]

Its quite clear now that May sees the NI issue as the only chink in the EU armour and therefore they are going to use it as a pawn/a wedge in the negotiating strategy. They tried the whole UK option under the NI exception but that was given short shrift by the EU so now they are keeping the wedge in the door - push us too hard and we'll create a hard border is the threat hoping that the EU back down while talking soft shite words about its "not our fault". In England that will be bought by idiots/casual observers/leavers/remainers who consider it too much thought to bother complaining - the rest they will ignore. In NI it will be seen what it really is no matter want you culturally identify as. It is a very dangerous game.

Hear where you're coming from. But I'm not sure they can credibly use the threat of the hard border here. That's the government's problem in a nutshell because they've boxed themselves in on that. The EU withdrawal bill stops them having a hard border, they've now prevented themselves having an internal border, and all that leaves is wishful thinking (Max Fac etc) or leaving things as close as possible to how they are now. They could try the full reverse of that (ie no border at all whatever they do) but that's another level of crazy again?

[oldfordie]

Its quite clear now that May sees the NI issue as the only chink in the EU armour and therefore they are going to use it as a pawn/a wedge in the negotiating strategy. They tried the whole UK option under the NI exception but that was given short shrift by the EU so now they are keeping the wedge in the door - push us too hard and we'll create a hard border is the threat hoping that the EU back down while talking soft shite words about its "not our fault". In England that will be bought by idiots/casual observers/leavers/remainers who consider it too much thought to bother complaining - the rest they will ignore. In NI it will be seen what it really is no matter want you culturally identify as. It is a very dangerous game.

Am sure she did try and use the NI border as a bargaining chip but the situation is very unpredictable, she may even loose her DUP support as Sinn Fein are now starting to support the EUs argument. it could lead to a united Ireland vote if things get out of hand. am sure people in NI have a better understanding than me so be interesting to hear what they think.
Maybe am wrong but I thought the Republic+ the EU were already beginning to accept the possibility of a border in the event of a no deal.

[BobOnATank]

Hear where you're coming from. But I'm not sure they can credibly use the threat of the hard border here. That's the government's problem in a nutshell because they've boxed themselves in on that. The EU withdrawal bill stops them having a hard border, they've now prevented themselves having an internal border, and all that leaves is wishful thinking (Max Fac etc) or leaving things as close as possible to how they are now. They could try the full reverse of that (ie no border at all whatever they do) but that's another level of crazy again?

Credible is a different discussion, its the least worst option they have hence the approach. May has been adopting the least worst approach for a while now that's why they went for a no vote needed change to NI legal boundaries regardless of the GFA - set that against a womans right to have an abortion and therefore control over their body, which May couldn't possibly infer with is f**king disgusting, IMO. May is grasping at straws.

[BobOnATank]

Am sure she did try and use the NI border as a bargaining chip but the situation is very unpredictable, she may even loose her DUP support as Sinn Fein are now starting to support the EUs argument. it could lead to a united Ireland vote if things get out of hand. am sure people in NI have a better understanding than me so be interesting to hear what they think.
Maybe am wrong but I thought the Republic+ the EU were already beginning to accept the possibility of a border in the event of a no deal.

I'm from there. DUP, as Ian P gave a great example of this, are in it for the £££'s and symbolism, british symbolism that they believe in doesn't actually exist in England but anyway. I really want better leadership in the unionist community in NI, been missing for years now.

Sinn Fein have a goal of a United Ireland, the start and the end. Sinn Fein are looking for the best enemy, think a right wing tory gobshite like Johnson or ress-mogg, those types. With them in power in England that makes their fight much, much easier. For Sinn Fein brexit is a two fold win, it hurts the enemy (the british establishment) and delivers a right winger into num 10.

[Zeb]

Credible is a different discussion, its the least worst option they have hence the approach. May has been adopting the least worst approach for a while now that's why they went for a no vote needed change to NI legal boundaries regardless of the GFA - set that against a womans right to have an abortion and therefore control over their body, which May couldn't possibly infer with is f**king disgusting, IMO. May is grasping at straws.

For sure May's a mess. Just can't see how she can threaten to do something the government legally cannot do (ie infrastructure of a hard border is ruled out). And it's not likely May can go back to Parliament and drive through a rewrite to destroy the GFA. Absolute incompetence or extreme bad faith are different things again, but would seem daft to have not left wriggle room in enforcing it if a hard border was the intention all along.

[oldfordie]

I'm from there. DUP, as Ian P gave a great example of this, are in it for the £££'s and symbolism, british symbolism that they believe in doesn't actually exist in England but anyway. I really want better leadership in the unionist community in NI, been missing for years now.

Sinn Fein have a goal of a United Ireland, the start and the end. Sinn Fein are looking for the best enemy, think a right wing tory gobshite like Johnson or ress-mogg, those types. With them in power in England that makes their fight much, much easier. For Sinn Fein brexit is a two fold win, it hurts the enemy (the british establishment) and delivers a right winger into num 10.

Thanks, whats the feeling about a border, is the Republic beginning to think they have no other option if a no deal comes about.

[BobOnATank]

For sure May's a mess. Just can't see how she can threaten to do something the government legally cannot do (ie infrastructure of a hard border is ruled out). And it's not likely May can go back to Parliament and drive through a rewrite to destroy the GFA. Absolute incompetence or extreme bad faith are different things again, but would seem daft to have not left wriggle room in enforcing it if a hard border was the intention all along.

Johnson and co are already shouting, indirectly, for the end of GFA - they know what they are doing but just don't care. I agree it is not a smart move to be seen as to contravene the GFA but who is going to enforce it after a hard brexit, it is based on the ECJ jurisdiction I believe.  https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-cant-shake-european-court-of-justice-ecj-post-brexit/

[BobOnATank]

Thanks, whats the feeling about a border, is the Republic beginning to think they have no other option if a no deal comes about.

All the communities along the border are a majority of people who identify as Irish, that does not mean all people are but by quite a way they are the majority. No one in NI will realistically think the EU or Ireland have created the border if there is a hard brexit, the focus will be fully on London.

The EU rather than just Ireland cannot separate, to do so would bring down the union, why give the UK better terms than membership, it makes no sense - I've seen you write the same many times fordie, there is no sense in this argument/discussion. But we knew that for a few years now of course.

[Zeb]

Johnson and co are already shouting, indirectly, for the end of GFA - they know what they are doing but just don't care. I agree it is not a smart move to be seen as to contravene the GFA but who is going to enforce it after a hard brexit, it is based on the ECJ jurisdiction I believe.  https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-cant-shake-european-court-of-justice-ecj-post-brexit/

Yeah, that's certainly true about the headbangers. In the case of a hard Brexit then it's all tits up, isn't it? I can't even begin to wrap my head around what would happen to the whole country, and obviously there's even more serious potential consequences in NI.

[BobOnATank]

Yeah, that's certainly true about the headbangers. In the case of a hard Brexit then it's all tits up, isn't it? I can't even begin to wrap my head around what would happen to the whole country, and obviously there's even more serious potential consequences in NI.

What country do you refer to, a united kingdom, not very united is it? The foundation of the GFA was that the people of NI could decide their own future and that neither Ireland nor the UK had aspirations to interfere with the future of the country/state/populace other than self determination. Tits up is a possible, remarkably the only hope I have is that the PSNI (rather than the RUC) will resist populace control orders and therefore prevent the loss of community policing. Lose that and we are on the road to escalating to the scale of the recent the troubles, it is a societal bedrock - for an English comparison think of the coal miners. The brexit ideology is of course that politicians are taking back control and know best, its the 70's and 80's again, thatcher type of c*nts.

[oldfordie]

All the communities along the border are a majority of people who identify as Irish, that does not mean all people are but by quite a way they are the majority. No one in NI will realistically think the EU or Ireland have created the border if there is a hard brexit, the focus will be fully on London.

The EU rather than just Ireland cannot separate, to do so would bring down the union, why give the UK better terms than membership, it makes no sense - I've seen you write the same many times fordie, there is no sense in this argument/discussion. But we knew that for a few years now of course.

Thanks, the whole things a mess, regarding the EUs position, they represent the republic, the EU will support whatever the Republic comes round too. nobody want's a border but nobody is coming up with any solutions to solve the problem and decisions have to be made. it's not just the NI border either, nobody wants our planes grounded, nobody wants 20 mile + tailbacks at customs but the attitude by a lot of people seems to be as nobody wants it to happen it wont happen, it's madness.

[killer-heels]

Am waiting for the punchline, is it a joke

No. The way they explained it didnt make it seem that bad. They said we have 2 deadlines, one in March where we have to agree the transition (so agree border backstop, money, citizens rights) and the one in Dec 2020 where we agree the trade deal.

If we get the transition agreed in March then we are still trading with the EU as normal until 2020. The guy from the logistics body said by that time they would have in place all agreements for fleet, air travel etc. even in the event of a no deal on trade.

The worst scenario is that we get a no deal on the transition but the fleet guy said we can still get some travel and security agreements by then.

Of course that still neglects the tarrifs and all that but seems to rule out the possibility (at least realistically) of huge lorry lines, planes being unable to fly etc. which would be what Brexiters need to see.

[Corkboy]

Brexit: Tell EU the Chequers plan is final offer, says Leadsom

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44890199

These people are utterly oblivious.

[rob1966]

Labour have come under a little pressure over a second referendum since the close votes the other night and the revelations that the Leave campaign broke the law during the campaign. Fortunately, Thornberry is there to clear up Labour's position:

HuffPost

All a bit too chukjibeop for me, but meh.

Fucks sake - I wish they'd stop this will of the people shite, its a quarter of the fucking population that wants this. Almost another quarter said no, the third quarter had no say and the 4th didn't bother, it's time to look out for 100% of the population. Those leave voters who work for or rely on Nissan, JLR, Toyota, Mini, Ford etc won't want to be unemployed after we leave, they will put jobs and family over the desire to leave the EU once the stark reality hits home.

[oldfordie]

No. The way they explained it didnt make it seem that bad. They said we have 2 deadlines, one in March where we have to agree the transition (so agree border backstop, money, citizens rights) and the one in Dec 2020 where we agree the trade deal.

If we get the transition agreed in March then we are still trading with the EU as normal until 2020. The guy from the logistics body said by that time they would have in place all agreements for fleet, air travel etc. even in the event of a no deal on trade.

The worst scenario is that we get a no deal on the transition but the fleet guy said we can still get some travel and security agreements by then.

Of course that still neglects the tarrifs and all that but seems to rule out the possibility (at least realistically) of huge lorry lines, planes being unable to fly etc. which would be what Brexiters need to see.

That's what I thought, we had a agreement in the event of a no deal for a transition arrangement that keeps the status quo till Sept 2020 and we carry on talking. ive just heard a few statements that contradict this.
it doesn't mean a hard Brexit is not so bad though, all it means is we've delayed the practical effects that hurt our everyday lives till Sept 2020. the actual fall out from a hard brexit will begin straight away, companies will use the period for transition. they will restructure to lower UK production, some will move out of the UK.
If the aim is to go out in the world and get new customers then why haven't they done that already, new trade deals won't happen for many years to come and I doubt many companies will benefit.

[Trada]

May doing her speech soon in Ireland.

Doesnt sound like its going to go down to well, Other parties in Ireland saying from what they have heard so far it could have been written by the DUP press office.

[oldfordie]

May doing her speech soon in Ireland.

Doesnt sound like its going to go down to well, Other parties in Ireland saying from what they have heard so far it could have been written by the DUP press office.

She's telling the EU to change it's stance as we have no solutions.
Ive no idea what the EU can do to solve the problem,maybe May can come up with some suggestions.

[filopastry]

She's telling the EU to change it's stance as we have no solutions.
Ive no idea what the EU can do to solve the problem,maybe May can come up with some suggestions.

It's the usual Brexiter response to be fair, eternally bitch and whine about other people not being able to solve problems they have caused and that they have no solution for themselves.

[Corkboy]

She's telling the EU to change it's stance as we have no solutions.

Britain: We're leaving
EU: Ok
Britain: Omg, can't believe you're just letting us leave

Britain sounds like a drama obsessed girlfriend who just got her bluff called.

[oldfordie]

It's the usual Brexiter response to be fair, eternally bitch and whine about other people not being able to solve problems they have caused and that they have no solution for themselves.

Yep,blame others for the problems we cause, what's she's actually saying is the EU has to come up with a solution otherwise it's their fault.
Be interesting to hear what she thinks the EU can do to solve the problem.

[killer-heels]

I hope we dont get an extension on Article 50. All it will be is giving the government more time to prepare for no deal.

The only way the reckoning comes is if we crash out.

[naka]

May doing her speech soon in Ireland.

Doesnt sound like its going to go down to well, Other parties in Ireland saying from what they have heard so far it could have been written by the DUP press office.

was at gym in the north last nite chatting to a rangers man who voted for brexit as he felt that the uk can go it alone and a border give his community added security against a united Ireland, although  he couldn't extrapolate on this.
He comes across normally as a decent guy but he couldn`t get his head around the fact that so many of the non unionist populace are now comfortable with the thought of a united Ireland rather than being British. His only counter was yip but there are still more  of us if the vote came.

in the end we went back to talking about Liverpool signing Allison, .
I actually felt quite disillusioned after it though, the North really hasn't moved on as its obvious both sides still are trying to score points.

 

[oldfordie]

Britain: We're leaving
EU: Ok
Britain: Omg, can't believe you're just letting us leave

Britain sounds like a drama obsessed girlfriend who just got her bluff called.

Fatal attraction. the EU will send her packing, I couldn't blame them if they got nasty as they must know Mays trying to make them into the bad guys. maybe that's exactly what May want's. best reaction from the EU is to just ask her what she thinks they can do.

[filopastry]

I didn't notice that yougov have started to poll preferences for a possible second ref.

[Robinred]

“Don’t worry, a ‘No-deal Brexit’ won’t be allowed to happen”.

Simon Jenkins in today’s Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Wilmo]

Britain: We're leaving
EU: Ok
Britain: Omg, can't believe you're just letting us leave

Britain sounds like a drama obsessed girlfriend who just got her bluff called.

'Don't worry love, he needs you more than you need him. He'll come crawling back.'

[Ray K]

'Don't worry love, he needs you more than you need him. He'll come crawling back.'

Next March: