Funny when your horse is heavily backed you think it's got more of a chance of winning and the opposite when it drifts.
1892
Do you have any figures on the results of drifters and steamers.
Didn't really get involved, that's horse racing.
Hi Cormack, not of my own but these articles might be useful:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/the-truth-about-steamers-and-drifters/https://www.geegeez.co.uk/steamers-and-drifters-part-2/The outcome is what I would have expected. 'Steamers' are bad value in the long term, and it's pretty logical to be honest. If you get a 'steamer' when it has gone from say 14/1 to 7/1, you're getting poor value in general. So, you might get more winners but will lose money.
'Drifters,' may win less but will likely give you better value. This is especially the case for shorter priced horses; say a horse goes from 8/11 to 6/5. Suddenly, it is potentially value. I've won more than a few times in that particular scenario. I remember one quite recently where the horse was about 1/2; I thought it would win but didn't like the odds. It drifted to 10/11, evens on the Exchange so I backed it, and it pissed the race! Obviously, that won't happen every time or even most of the time, but it does show that horses drifting isn't always a bad sign. An expert in the gee gees once said he liked the drifts after he's made his bets because it means he would make more money
Obviously, you need BOG to benefit.
I've been at Leopardstown and Fairyhouse and saw mad price cuts on horses at the track and couldn't understand why. I checked their history again and it made no sense. They then go on to be well beaten
Signed up to one of these tipster things for the month for Cheltenham and it was hit and miss over the 4 days but in fairness today he had 2 horses and both won at evs and 5/1.
Most, and I mean about 90+% of tipsters are absolutely crap. A combination of 'big names' who skate by on reputation and not results, utter chancers, and people who bet according to rigid systems, which often contain criteria that make no sense.
You'll find that mostly they tip at a price you can't actually get but frame their results based on this phantom price. If more people bothered to track their own results rather than the BS ROIs fed to them by these bullshit artists, they'd realise these people are charlatans. They'll claim they're up 20 points but you look at your results and it says you're down 8 points. Some even cheat on placing (they suggest you 'won' because your horse was third in a seven horse race even though most bookies only payout on the first two). The worst ones outright lie about pricing (recommending at odds available about 3 hours BEFORE they send you the tips and you can check odds history on Oddschecker) and put down a full payout when the race was subject to Rule 4.
Also, they always advertise heavily when on a hot streak, which is the worst time to join them because their results will revert to the mean, usually soon after.
