Topic: Coming back to the league ...

[RedLoner]

As the post Roma party continues, no need for a reminder of the importance of the Sunday game against the mercenaries (oops, getting a bit excited there  ).  

We need to win this game not only for revenge, but I think it will virtually ensure we will not be challenged for a CL place next season; I know this is almost secure now, but this is the chance to settle the issue.

Good news: No injuries reported from the Roma match, and Mickey will be back.  
Bad news: Chelsea are playing so well recently; then again, so are we. We've come a long way since that infamous encounter at Stamford Bridge. So bring them on!

It should be a crunch game. 2-1 in our favour, Mickey and Smicer the scorers (wild guess).

Your predictions/thoughts?  

[dan17]

What happens, WHEN we win the league and cup is 5th place awarded a CL spot?

[Aidan_B]

I agree completely with RedLoner.  The league is our top priority, and I don't think many fans argue about that.  Let's get the job in hand done.  I can imagine Thommo having banned any talk of the Roma game already.  Focus is the key.  The crowd need to remember that noise really does inspire, that is as valuable a lesson from Tuesday as anything else.

(as for MO10.  no, only four CL spots even if we win CL)

[Anthony]

What happens, WHEN we win the league and cup is 5th place awarded a CL spot?

Congratulations - you are the first person this year to ask this question!  

If the winner of the CL also qualifies via their National league position the place does *not* drop down the League but goes back to UEFA for re-allocation. The Champions from the country 10th in the coefficient lists qualifies automatically rather than having to play a qualifier.

We actually met an example this season! Boavista qualified automatically for the Group Stages when Bayern Munich won the CL and the Bundesliga.

(One extra point that now applies to England - Each country can only have a maximum of 4 participants. Where a country has 4 places granted and the CL winners finish outside the top 4 then the team in 4th place loses their CL spot and has to go into the UEFA Cup instead)

Again, again...

[archie]

i fear chelsea to be honest
sorry but i'm just pessimistic as fuck when it comes to all our games
cause whenever i think we will win we cock up.
i hate them,i really do but we can't handle their frontmen and haven't for the last 3 encounters.
i REALLY want us to thrash them but i can't see it.
utd will win easy today :
us - score draw  
i want to be wrong by the way
the arch

[RedLoner]

I hope you'll be as wrong about Chelsea as you were against United Archie   Me too, I fear Chelsea a little bit because they've been enjoying some success against us lately, but I hope that this time, as I indicated in my original post, we are a different team from the one that played them last time around.

Anthony, you should be appointed the official statistician/archivist of this web site (if you haven't already)   You still didn't give us your expectations for tomorrow's match.

[Anthony]

Yes, well the secret of my success is that I don't make rash predictions!      

It will be a tough match as we are catching them on a run. I think it will be back to plan A for us since Chelsea now have their eyes on 4th spot but I wouldn't mind seeing the Three Musketeers (Owen, Heskey & Anelka) formation given another shot. Given yesterday's result we now have 2nd spot back in our own hands if we win all our games so a draw might not be the end of the world but it's Arsenal we have to watch out for now.

In summary this will be like all our games until the end of the season - a match we can win, it's just whether we do that matters.  

[mercury]

Let's see how long Pires going to be out.  Without him and Henry - that's going to hurt the Gooners.  

My own prediction before the Roma game and yesterday is Gooners 1st in the league, us second and Mancs 3rd (can't imagine they'll not lose points with their "tofu" defence). Our bid of the title must be stronger now.

Come on you mighty REDS!  

[Anthony]

It comes back to the run-in. We are looking for Arsenal to drop between 4 & 8 points from these games

1 30-Mar-02 H Sunderland
0 01-Apr-02 A Charlton Athletic
3 06-Apr-02 H Tottenham Hotspur
3 20-Apr-02 H Ipswich Town
3 24-Apr-02 H West Ham United
1 29-Apr-02 A Bolton Wanderers
0 T----B----A A Manchester United
3 11-May-02 H Everton

(14)

(The figures at the beginning are the points they got from the fixtures last season, Bolton replacing Bradford)

3 London Teams (Charlton & Spurs look handy) plus the Mancs. The last 3 games are against relegation candidates, although I expect Everton may be clear by the last day.

(Thanks to Roger_H for the update...)

The Mancs are as follows

1 30-Mar-02 A Leeds United
3 06-Apr-02 A Leicester City
3 T----B----A H Arsenal
1 20-Apr-02 A Chelsea
1 27-Apr-02 A Ipswich Town
3 11-May-02 H Charlton Athletic

(12)

A really tough run-in but they didn't lose any of these games last season!

And we are as follows

1 24-Mar-02 H Chelsea
3 30-Mar-02 H Charlton
3 T----B----A H Blackburn (Coventry)
1 13-Apr-02 A Sunderland
1 20-Apr-02 H Derby
0 27-Apr-02 A Spurs
0 11-May-02 H Ipswich

(9)

Note that the games we have left are generally the games that let us down last season - room for improvement but we *can* do it.

[RedLoner]

Yes, well the secret of my success is that I don't make rash predictions!      

Well, I did get the win and Smicer right  

I'm looking forward to the mancs vs arsenal tie. I don't suppose the mancs would want to lose 10 in a season, and another one at home, so I'm hoping they will either cancel each other out, or take all 3 points, which is still preferable to having arsenal take the points; of both these teams, I have the feeling arsenal are the ones least likely to drop any.  

In any case, let's just win our games and have no regrets at the end no matter what.

3 points, and 3 drinks (at least) for me pretty soon  

[Anthony]

Well done RedLoner! (And well done Vladi!)  

Just to add to my earlier posts - Today's victory means we are now mathematically assured of a top 6 finish this season. The European places presently go as follows

Top 2 - Qualify directly for CL Group Stages
3rd - Qualify for CL Pre-Qualification round
4th - Also qualify for CL Pre-Qualification round *unless* Man Utd or Ourselves win the CL and finish outside the top 4, in which case take UEFA Cup spot
5th - UEFA Cup Spot *unless* it goes to 4th place as above.
6th - At present do not qualify for a UEFA Cup Spot with 2 exceptions
  a) If *both* FA Cup Finalists (ie Arsenal v Chelsea) have already qualified for Europe via the League Position
  b) If England qualifies for an extra UEFA Cup place via the UEFA Fair Play League - normally comes down to a ballot.

(Remember Blackburn have already taken a UEFA Cup place by
winning the Worthington Cup)

So, on present standings, we need 5 more points to beat last season's points tally, a maximum of 10 more points to be assured of European Football next season, 11 more points to seal a CL qualifying spot, and to win all our games to be assured of qualification for the CL Group Stages.

[mercury]

You never fail to come up with the goods! Thks, Anthony!  

[Shaky Jake]

5 more points to beat last season? That's excellent. Just shows how the team is progressing.

[RedLoner]

So, on present standings, we need 5 more points to beat last season's points tally, a maximum of 10 more points to be assured of European Football next season, 11 more points to seal a CL qualifying spot, and to win all our games to be assured of qualification for the CL Group Stages.

11 points from 6 matches, that's well within our reach, considering also that this is probably the worst case scenario, i.e. if our rivals for CL places do their best (right Anthony?) which they are not at the moment; we just defeated a couple.

And a correction to what I said earlier, the mancs wouldn't want to lose 9 (not 10) in a season; well, neither would they want to lose 10... you get the idea.

[Anthony]

11 points from 6 matches, that's well within our reach, considering also that this is probably the worst case scenario, i.e. if our rivals for CL places do their best (right Anthony?) which they are not at the moment; we just defeated a couple.

Correct - at present 11 points would take us out of the reach of Leeds & Chelsea but they've still got to face the Mancs so it could either be down to an 8 point target or we'll get a serious advantage for 2nd place  

Like I said, it's Arsenal we need to watch out for...

[redtel]

Adding to Anthonys post re fixture run in. Arsenal have announced dates for rearranged games.

WHU (h) is now Wed 24 April
Bolton (a) now  Mon 29 April.
Still no Man u date.

This would mean that after Spurs away on 27 th we would have only 1 match left if Blackburn is played on 6th(am). Arsenal would have 3 left.

Think this  means  we will delay Blackburn match , as playing them later could mean their fate was sealed one way or the other. Hopefully they would be safe.

[Macca]

Archie - with predictions that accurate, can you predict the rest of the season for us, Arse & Ure?

[KFC]

I think Arsenal will drop 2 points in this Easter weekend where they have to play Sunderland (H) and then Charlton (A) in 3 days.

If we win our game at Charlton (finger crossed) then we will be 1 point ahead Arsenal but they have 1 game in hand.  It will come down to that match at OT.

Having said that I think both Arsenal and ourselves will probably drop more points in April so in still think 79-80 points are going to be enough.  We are currently 65 points after 32 games and if we got 14-16 points in the next 6 games that will bring us 79-81 points and that would be good enough for me for the title.