Topic: General Election on June 8th

[Cliff Bastin]

Abbott apparently had an absolute car crash in an interview today?

[Zeb]

Most will enjoy this, it's Simon Wren Lewis on Theresa May's track record.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/theresa-may.html

Some of us may laugh at the endless repetition of ‘strong and stable’, but good propaganda is always based on a half-truth, and the half truth here is that many voters do think she is a cautious operator and a safe pair of hands. It is likely most people get this belief not from a detailed examination of her past actions, but from how she comes across in sound bites and interviews on the TV.


The reality seems rather different. Her actions since becoming Prime Minister appear ill-judged and reckless. Take, for example, the pointless attempt to prevent parliament voting on Article 50. A strong and stable Prime Minister would (with a small amount of research) have realised that very few MPs within her party were prepared to be seen to ignore the referendum, and that therefore she would easily get her way. Instead she fought and lost a pointless battle in the courts. It had not been the first time she had wasted public money in this way.


Much more serious were the decisions she took immediately after the referendum. There was no need to immediately attempt to define what the referendum really meant, but she impulsively did so in terms of reducing immigration and not being bound by rulings from the European court. It effectively condemned the UK to leaving the Single Market and a Hard Brexit, something that absolutely was not implied by such a close vote. And she chose three Brexiteers to be in charge of the negotiations, which was not a ‘clever political move’ but a disaster in terms of formulating realistic plans for negotiations with the EU. In fact it is rather difficult to think of a single good decision she has taken since becoming PM.


Anyone who thinks her previous stint at the Home Office was more of a success should read the article by Jonathan Foreman that the Daily Telegraph pulled after pressure from her campaign. It ends “There’s a vast gulf between being effective in office, and being effective at promoting yourself; it’s not one that Theresa May has yet crossed.” That could be dismissed as exaggeration at a time of internal battles to become Tory leader, but it chimes with accounts by others. The Foreman article describes her as the most disliked member of two cabinets, unable to work easily with colleagues. Secretive, rigid, controlling, even vengeful are other adjectives used.

Two characteristics that I discussed in an earlier post were this lack of collegiality, and a tendency to adopt firm positions when flexibility was required. A clear example of that is the inclusion of students in the target total for net migration, which has done great damage to one of our stronger export industries, as well as causing untold distress to many people. It is difficult to think of any rational reason to obstinately refuse to remedy this mistake, beyond that it might appear to show ‘weakness’ in May herself.


The desire to project a false image of strength is unlikely to survive her encounter with the EU. As yet, she has done little to prepare the country for the many retreats she will have to make. Perhaps she thinks she can just lie about this, as she has been caught doing on at least two (here and here) occasions. It is a testament to these character flaws that so many find it difficult to know whether she will do a deal with the EU, or walk away in a faux gesture of defiant strength. Drawing unnecessary lines in the sand, personal aloofness and obstinacy designed to project an image of personal strength, are decidedly not the qualities you want in negotiating with the EU.


Just as with Donald Trump, initial appearances can be deceptive. As her many U-turns suggest, she is far from strong and stable. The spin only works because authoritarian tendencies can easily be confused with strength and obstinacy can be confused with stability, and of course a powerful press can assist with the confusion. In reality it is difficult to imagine someone more ill-suited to making the best of the bad job that is Brexit, and on top of that we have grammar schools and an obsession with immigration. David Cameron may find that his reputation as the worst Prime Minister of modern times may not last very long.

She's been slowly unraveling under the spotlight this election, but she's not been very effective at any point in government. The best of the worst of a very weak Tory party. A shame that Labour have gone into this election so far behind that a 5 - 10 point gap a couple of weeks before the election is being seen as progress. At this point in 2015, Labour were neck and neck. They were 15 points up in 1997.

[Peabee]

No, it's a lot of questions. Do you have any answers?

Not really or I'd be more involved with politics rather than acting like I have all the answers on here.  To review doesn't necessarily even mean making much or any change.   There isn't just one reason for terrorism.  Some use Islam as an excuse, some use foreign policy, some are just murderous bastards, and so on.   

Anyway, I might be wrong, but I'm ok with that. 

Edit:   Nick's post read as one long article on my phone, I can see the italics on my iPad.  Thus, it read a bit strange to me originally.

[Peabee]

Abbott apparently had an absolute car crash in an interview today?

Water is wet.

[Cliff Bastin]

Water is wet.

Going to check it out. Something about changing her hair.

[TepidT2O]

She's likened changing her position on extremist groups to changing her hairstyle...

[redmark]

Abbott apparently had an absolute car crash in an interview today?

Guardian summary:

'My views changed like my hair-style' - Abbott
Diane Abbott is up now and asked about the perception by some people that she cannot be trusted.

Abbott says she worked in the home office as a graduate trainee for three years so understands it. She also has worked with diverse communities, she says.

Marr asks about an early-day motion signed by Abbott calling for the abolition of MI5. Abbot says MI5 has reformed since then and she supports it now.

Asked about her voting against anti-terrorism legislation on a number of occasions, she says lots of Tories voted against them, including Theresa May and David Davis. Abbott also says that courts later effectively upheld some of the decisions she took in her voting.

Next, Marr asks about her voting against al-Qaida being proscribed prior to 9/11. Abbott says it was not just al-Qaida on the list. Marr reads out the names of the other organisations and says they were all terrible organisations. Abbott says the issue with some of the groups was whether they were dissidents in their country.

Next Marr asks about a statement of support Abbott made for the IRA 34 years ago. She replies:
 
"I had a rather splendid afro at the time ...The hair style has gone and some of the views have gone."


Amber Rudd: "I've changed my hairstyle a few times too, but I haven't changed my views on how to keep the British people safe".

[Alan_X]

I believe there are significant differences in turnout modelling now.

If Labour really does get previous non voters to vote in significant numbers then ICM and Comres will understate their support as they weight turnout more heavily by past voting behaviour than by whether someone says they will vote or not, because historically more people say they will definitely vote than actually bother to vote.

There seems to have been a bigger spike in voter applications this time round which will make some difference.

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group#from=2015-03-01T00:00:00Z&to=2017-05-01T00:00:00Z

And there is a larger number and a greater proportion of voters under-25 who have registered:

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group

(comparison with the referendum attached)

I hope that however this turns out the Party actually takes stock and that the two sides simply don;t entrench their positions. Corbyn has attracted a younger voter profile but it remains to be seen how that manifests itself in the election results. But the concerns of the PLP about basic competency, the appalling team he has behind him and his unattractiveness to the wider electorate also need to be accepted by his supporters.

[zero zero]

This thread is full of wild assumptions and baseless speculation, and people who always think they're right because cognitive bias leads them to share articles that fit their opinion (last point not aimed at you). I'm not blameless, but it's becoming annoying.

That's an assumption in itself. What I tink you're doing there is not recognising that people can post with certainty about their own positions, whilst knowing there is no right or wrong.

[Peabee]

Guardian summary:

'My views changed like my hair-style' - Abbott
Diane Abbott is up now and asked about the perception by some people that she cannot be trusted.

Abbott says she worked in the home office as a graduate trainee for three years so understands it. She also has worked with diverse communities, she says.

Marr asks about an early-day motion signed by Abbott calling for the abolition of MI5. Abbot says MI5 has reformed since then and she supports it now.

Asked about her voting against anti-terrorism legislation on a number of occasions, she says lots of Tories voted against them, including Theresa May and David Davis. Abbott also says that courts later effectively upheld some of the decisions she took in her voting.

Next, Marr asks about her voting against al-Qaida being proscribed prior to 9/11. Abbott says it was not just al-Qaida on the list. Marr reads out the names of the other organisations and says they were all terrible organisations. Abbott says the issue with some of the groups was whether they were dissidents in their country.

Next Marr asks about a statement of support Abbott made for the IRA 34 years ago. She replies:
 
"I had a rather splendid afro at the time ...The hair style has gone and some of the views have gone."


Amber Rudd: "I've changed my hairstyle a few times too, but I haven't changed my views on how to keep the British people safe".

Silly statement by Abbott, but it's not good to be so inflexible.  Does she see that as being strong?  I'd say it's a weakness.

[Peabee]

That's an assumption in itself. What I tink you're doing there is not recognising that people can post with certainty about their own positions, whilst knowing there is no right or wrong.

Fair point. 

"I'm not blameless".  I annoy myself.

[redtel]

Abbott apparently had an absolute car crash in an interview today?

Yep, but if Corbyn was strong and really wanted to be elected P.M. he would have ensured Abbot was nowhere near appearing on a major TV channel for interview with Andrew Marr. We saw enough when her policing plans went viral after a radio interview.

I conclude that Jeremy is happy in the position he is in. I wish there was light at the end of the tunnel.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

She's likened changing her position on extremist groups to changing her hairstyle...

and didn't want to name the proscribed groups that she thought was fine

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Yep, but if Corbyn was strong and really wanted to be elected P.M. he would have ensured Abbot was nowhere near appearing on a major TV channel for interview with Andrew Marr. We saw enough when her policing plans went viral after a radio interview.

I conclude that Jeremy is happy in the position he is in. I wish there was light at the end of the tunnel.

he wouldn't have her in that job, or any shadow cabinet minister job, if he wanted to be PM

[Trada]

So the Tories are putting Rudd up for the BBC's leaders debate I hope this mean Jeremy will do this one so it make May look even weaker.

[CornerFlag]

So the Tories are putting Rudd up for the BBC's leaders debate I hope this mean Jeremy will do this one so it make May look even weaker.

Wouldn't bet on it.

Incidentially there was a Labour bus outside New Brighton Community Centre last night as me and the wife were walking back with the baby.  Campaigning locally or was there a bigger meeting I was unaware of?  There was only about 6-8 people outside waiting as it pulled up.

[Trada]

I wonder why Marr didn't ask Rudd will being White effects the way she will run the Home office.

Seeing he seems to think colour will be a factor.

Also odd that Fallon said on Peston that Trident is a factor in stopping terrorism God know how he works that one out.

Thats up there with the Ukip candidate that said the death penalty should be brought back for suicide bombers.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

I wonder why Marr didn't ask Rudd will being White effects the way she will run the Home office.

what the fuck???

[Kashinoda]

Labour drop back a bit here..

Not significant changes I suspect...

Overall momentum has remained for some time now, this Wiki page is a decent resource:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

[Red Beret]

The only skill Diane Abbott has is unwavering loyalty to Corbyn.  That's it.  That's the only reason she is on the front bench.  At all. 

I struggle to believe that even the most ardent Corbyn supporter feels she genuinely deserves or is capable of handling a cabinet position.  If Jeremy got rid of her I think he might actually win a few people over.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

The only skill Diane Abbott has is unwavering loyalty to Corbyn.  That's it.  That's the only reason she is on the front bench.  At all. 

I struggle to believe that even the most ardent Corbyn supporter feels she genuinely deserves or is capable of handling a cabinet position.  If Jeremy got rid of her I think he might actually win a few people over.

if he got rid of the incompetents who are loyal to him (Abbott, McDonnell, thornberry) and those way out of their depth (long bailey, Burgon) and replaced them with competent people who can stay on message he'd have a good chance, then again the polls wouldn't have been that bad for an election to be called

[Red Beret]

if he got rid of the incompetents who are loyal to him (Abbott, McDonnell, thornberry) and those way out of their depth (long bailey, Burgon) and replaced them with competent people who can stay on message he'd have a good chance, then again the polls wouldn't have been that bad for an election to be called

But the bounce Labour are currently experiencing might have been stronger.

[AA3JM21]

Why are loads of people saying Labour have zero chance in this election? From what I've seen they've got a decent chance at least, no?

[AaronSingh25]

Whilst i'm aware May has a fair few issues on her plate at the moment with Manchester, i believe she will be kept well hidden. Better say nothing at all, than be seen and put people off.

Corbyn simply has to keep the likes of Abott and Thornberry away from the media. It's crazy and harming him whenever they appear infront of the cameras.

[AaronSingh25]

Why are loads of people saying Labour have zero chance in this election? From what I've seen they've got a decent chance at least, no?

He doesn't have to win, he just needs enough votes to be able to form a coalition to keep the Tories out.

If the Tories don't increase their majority May will be in big trouble within the party of her own position.

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

Why are loads of people saying Labour have zero chance in this election? From what I've seen they've got a decent chance at least, no?

There is indeed a chance. But there's a chance for lots of things that won't in all likelihood happen, like Stoke winning the league next year or me getting to play drums for Aretha Franklin on her next tour.

But they're still behind the Tories in all polls, and polling is usually found to be slightly wrong in Labour's favour, e.g. last election looked a lot closer than it was right up until the day, when all the so called Shy Tories came out in Cameron's favour.

An unpopular government full of idiots and dementors should be suffering badly in the polls, not maintaining what is really quite a decent lead.

There has been a late charge for Labour and we can hope that the young vote actually gets out and swings the balance of things, but reading it right now, I'd say it still looks like a solid Tory win, sadly.

[Zeb]

He doesn't have to win, he just needs enough votes to be able to form a coalition to keep the Tories out.

If the Tories don't increase their majority May will be in big trouble within the party of her own position.

Without a strong Lib Dem vote a coalition isn't happening. Tories are looking at increasing their majority by 40+ as things stand.

[oldfordie]

Whilst i'm aware May has a fair few issues on her plate at the moment with Manchester, i believe she will be kept well hidden. Better say nothing at all, than be seen and put people off.

Corbyn simply has to keep the likes of Abott and Thornberry away from the media. It's crazy and harming him whenever they appear infront of the cameras.

The Torys have their own liability's as well who have made some horrendous statements.
I still find Reece-Moggs statement shocking. Labour should be going on the attack to scare voters into not voting Tory.
Theres no need for long speeches. just keep hammering facts like these. scare voters into not voting Tory. This is the Brexit the Torys want. DO YOU WANT IT.

Britain could slash environmental and safety standards 'a very long way' after Brexit, Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg says

The MP said standards that were 'good enough for India' could be good enough for the UK

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html

[hide5seek]

There is indeed a chance. But there's a chance for lots of things that won't in all likelihood happen, like Stoke winning the league next year or me getting to play drums for Aretha Franklin on her next tour.

But they're still behind the Tories in all polls, and polling is usually found to be slightly wrong in Labour's favour, e.g. last election looked a lot closer than it was right up until the day, when all the so called Shy Tories came out in Cameron's favour.

An unpopular government full of idiots and dementors should be suffering badly in the polls, not maintaining what is really quite a decent lead.

There has been a late charge for Labour and we can hope that the young vote actually gets out and swings the balance of things, but reading it right now, I'd say it still looks like a solid Tory win, sadly.

I'm pretty sure polling favouring Labour has been taken into account.

[oojason]

From Corbyn on the 'Peston On Sunday' this morning...

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/868776067695353856

interesting from the comment below - "can't see why we would lose businesses if we raise our corporate tax rate to 26%  France 33.3% Germ 29.72% USA 38.9% Australia 30%" - had no idea the UK's was so low in comparison to others in Europe and around the world (if correct), doesn't play to for the tories in wanting to reduce it to 19%

[Lush is the best medicine...]

From Corbyn on the 'Peston On Sunday' this morning...

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/868776067695353856

interesting from the comment below - "can't see why we would lose businesses if we raise our corporate tax rate to 26%  France 33.3% Germ 29.72% USA 38.9% Australia 30%" - had no idea the UK's was so low in comparison to others in Europe and around the world (if correct), doesn't play to for the tories in wanting to reduce it to 19%

an incentive for companies to come/stay here as Brexit is a good reason not to come/leave and if the corporation taxes go up it makes the uk less attractive for foreign firms to come, multinationals will shift profits abroad to pay less and the ones most hit will be the domestic based companies

[Trada]

what the fuck???

He asked Abbott if being Black will effect the way she runs the Home Office.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

He asked Abbott if being Black will effect the way she runs the Home Office.

did he? Must have missed that, although I wasn't fully awake when watching it

[killer-heels]

an incentive for companies to come/stay here as Brexit is a good reason not to come/leave and if the corporation taxes go up it makes the uk less attractive for foreign firms to come, multinationals will shift profits abroad to pay less and the ones most hit will be the domestic based companies

Companies always use this to threaten countries. The current level is fine but we shouldnt be afraid to increase it.

[oojason]

an incentive for companies to come/stay here as Brexit is a good reason not to come/leave and if the corporation taxes go up it makes the uk less attractive for foreign firms to come, multinationals will shift profits abroad to pay less and the ones most hit will be the domestic based companies

You're right - but 26% is still a good incentive over over the other countries %'s highlighted for those corporations (even a slight % difference may be millions saved to them) - plus, France and Germany may not need the money as we do to go directly into helping our poor - or neglected infrastructure highlighted in that video (as their govts' have looked after them more).

In essence it'd still be one of the best corporate tax % deals out there - and that Labour here are promising to directly channel that money into the people who need it most.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

You're right - but 26% is still a good incentive over over the other countries %'s highlighted for those corporations (even a slight % difference may be millions saved to them) - plus, France and Germany may not need the money as we do to go directly into helping our poor - or neglected infrastructure highlighted in that video (as their govts' have looked after them more).

In essence it'd still be one of the best corporate tax % deals out there - and that Labour here are promising to directly channel that money into the people who need it most.

committing to raising it by 40% isn't a good idea, should have just said they'll keep it as it is until a year or two after Brexit and then re evaluate, gives plenty of wiggle room to increase in the future depending on how Brexit goes, and of course gives businesses a bit of stability in a rocky period

[filopastry]

Isn't the US Corp tax rate getting slashed, if Trump gets his tax plan or something similar through.

[Lecter]

From Corbyn on the 'Peston On Sunday' this morning...

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/868776067695353856

interesting from the comment below - "can't see why we would lose businesses if we raise our corporate tax rate to 26%  France 33.3% Germ 29.72% USA 38.9% Australia 30%" - had no idea the UK's was so low in comparison to others in Europe and around the world (if correct), doesn't play to for the tories in wanting to reduce it to 19%

It's not just Corporation Tax that is a factor

It's also things like business rates, NI contributions etc..

When you factor all those things in we are much further down the list on terms of competitiveness

[filopastry]

Hmmm just saw some of the Abbott interview, could they not just keep her locked up in a secluded location for the rest of the campaign, she is such a reliable fucking gift for the Tories.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Hmmm just saw some of the Abbott interview, could they not just keep her locked up in a secluded location for the rest of the campaign, she is such a reliable fucking gift for the Tories.

if the Manchester attack didn't happen they probably could have, but now she will need to make regular appearances.