Topic: Winning Title #19*

[jillcwhomever]

...in the Chasing the Title thread.

Obviously them and Chelsea are in good runs and mathematically aren’t out of it with so long to go but as said above, you’d think 95 points will be needed to win this League and I can’t see either getting within 10 points if that. If us and City both drop form and the title is won on 85 then maybe they both have a chance but that feels unlikely (but not impossible) at this moment.

I'll give you that one.   

[meady1981]

It's November, way too early to be even thinking about the title race.

What about the title parade route

[Red_Rich]

Going to be 12-15 points ahead of City by Christmas.

[gjr1]

Can’t see any other team finishing above both us and City at the end of the season.

One of us perhaps, but not both

[Red Eyed]

Well done to Chelsea and Leicester for even being mentioned but it's going to take at LEAST (being conservative) 90 points to win the title. Leicester in their best ever season hit 81 and it would be a lot to ask of this young Chelsea side. If we beat City we win the league.

[royhendo]

Can't write off Leicester and Chelsea until they're actually out. They're still in the title race until we put some real day light between us and them.

Nah you can

[JackWard33]

Chelsea and Leicester are totally different propositions
Leicester are good but running really hot and have a thin squad in spots
Chelsea are putting up outstanding underlying numbers and have a deep squad - couple of good additions and they’re title contenders next year - as it is they’re clearly the 3rd best team in the league

Leicester’s points advantage over the other ‘big’ teams may well see them get top 4 but there’s also a world where they have a couple of key injuries, an unlucky stretch or at least stop scoring with every shot they hit and one of the other clubs gets their shit together and over takes them.. can’t see that in Chelsea’s case

Neither are in the title race - if there was 1 elite team you could argue things could go wrong for that team but there’s 2 so it’s super unlikely

[Jon2lfc]

Well done to Chelsea and Leicester for even being mentioned but it's going to take at LEAST (being conservative) 90 points to win the title. Leicester in their best ever season hit 81 and it would be a lot to ask of this young Chelsea side. If we beat City we win the league.

with 11 or 12 games gone, i don't think it's that simple..
If we and/or Man City slip up a little, and Leicester and/or Chelsea don't, then we really will have a 4 horse title race on our hands.
Still lots of the season left for strange things to happen.
Who knows when each team will 'peak' or 'drop off'.........

[RedTriumph]

Can't write off Leicester and Chelsea until they're actually out. They're still in the title race until we put some real day light between us and them.

We keep mentioning the psychological blow for City if Liverpool win tomorrow, opening up a nine-point advantage, as though it's a two horse race.

At risk of stating the obvious, if we win City stay fourth. A quick glance at the PL table would see them no longer one of two leading horses, but scrapping it out for second with Chelsea and Leicester, and that's huge.

I don't realistically think either Chelsea or Leicester will end up challenging for the title this year, but I think it could go in our favour that they've both been this successful so far. An extended stay at second for either of them might give them the psychological edge to go on a decent unbeaten run, and watching that could be enough to cause City to flounder and not be able to significantly break away from the pack.

Gargantuan game, this. It's all about the win, by whatever means. We'd love to see us smash them for 20-30 minutes and score three goals like we've done previously, but I'd just as happily take a tense 2-1, with a winner that crosses the goal-line by 11mm and then holding on by the skin of our teeth, with the final whistle blowing as Milly runs the ball toward the corner flag.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Chelsea and Leicester are totally different propositions
Leicester are good but running really hot and have a thin squad in spots
Chelsea are putting up outstanding underlying numbers and have a deep squad - couple of good additions and they’re title contenders next year - as it is they’re clearly the 3rd best team in the league

Leicester’s points advantage over the other ‘big’ teams may well see them get top 4 but there’s also a world where they have a couple of key injuries, an unlucky stretch or at least stop scoring with every shot they hit and one of the other clubs gets their shit together and over takes them.. can’t see that in Chelsea’s case

Neither are in the title race - if there was 1 elite team you could argue things could go wrong for that team but there’s 2 so it’s super unlikely

Why are Leicester running hot, but not Chelsea? Abraham's numbers are stellar - Pele-like, even. Do we expect him to maintain that form for 38 games?

[farawayred]

with 11 or 12 games gone, i don't think it's that simple..
If we and/or Man City slip up a little, and Leicester and/or Chelsea don't, then we really will have a 4 horse title race on our hands.
Still lots of the season left for strange things to happen.
Who knows when each team will 'peak' or 'drop off'.........

He's not suggesting the players should hit the pub if we win tomorrow though. If you start putting probabilities, considering our unbeaten run since last season, what would be the chance to lose three games out of our last 16? That would be almost 19% loss rate!

[Gerry Attrick]

I don't think Chelsea or Leicester have a chance this season but it's pretty cool to see the 4 most exciting teams occupying the top 4. Doesn't often happen.

[Red Eyed]

with 11 or 12 games gone, i don't think it's that simple..
If we and/or Man City slip up a little, and Leicester and/or Chelsea don't, then we really will have a 4 horse title race on our hands.
Still lots of the season left for strange things to happen.
Who knows when each team will 'peak' or 'drop off'.........

I mean if we beat City's points total, not if we beat them tomorrow. Anyway, I just don't see one of the other contenders being able to better both us and City over the season.

[Jack Barrels]

Why are Leicester running hot, but not Chelsea? Abraham's numbers are stellar - Pele-like, even. Do we expect him to maintain that form for 38 games?

How are you making out his number as Pelé-like? He has 10 in 12. Pele was about 1 in 1, is that what you're after? I give you that one then. I back the original poster though, Vardy for example has way worse underlying number than Abraham. Abraham is overperforming but not excessively, 10 goals to a 7.42 xG. Vardy has 11 goals to a 5.19 xG. That could also mean Vardy is a more astute finisher but it takes away the point that Abraham is running extremely hot.

I would also be inclined to agree with the strength of Chelseas squad. Pulisic looks on fire at the moment, so hot actually that they can afford to have Hudson-Odoi on the bench. They overcame Palace with ease with Jorginho injured, and Azpilicueta as a sub. Kepa looks to have developed, and they just keep popping out with new exciting youth. First it was Tomori, Mount etc, now they introduce James! It hurts me to say I actually kind of like this Chelsea side. I don't think either Leicester or Chelsea can push us this year, but I disagree with those who expect it to be us and City for years to come. Chelsea will be in the mix.

[Yosser0_0]

The assumptions about City and how many points that they achieve are based on the last two seasons where they have set the bar incredibly high, but is it realistic to expect them to stay at that level forever? I don't think that they look as good as last year and we've seen them drop their levels in a couple of games. I actually think that their so called injury crisis is due to their style of play and the number of games that they've accumulated. They play with high intensity with lots of short sprints and turns during games, they usually put out very strong sides in cup games because they are so greedy to win everything which means that they play their best players more than they should rather than giving them a rest. Eventually I think that catches up with a team.

Massive game tomorrow (today) I've said for a while that it is coming to a point whereby the league could be decided on our head to head games with City. A win would be huge for either side.

[88_RED]

Can't write off Leicester and Chelsea until they're actually out. They're still in the title race until we put some real day light between us and them.

So that would be today then.. 8pts is real day light for me..

[mrantarctica]

So that would be today then.. 8pts is real day light for me..

Weren't we 7 points clear at one stage last season?

[newterp]

Weren't we 7 points clear at one stage last season?

City had a game in hand.

[88_RED]

Weren't we 7 points clear at one stage last season?

But we dropped 3 of those points to City.. Also dropped 2 at home earlier in the season..

Win today and we go 9 clear, having taken 3 from them, with a chance to take more at Etihad later in the season..

Plus this team has shown that it learns from its mistakes.. We saw it in the Champions League last season and we are already seeing it in the league this season..

[JackWard33]

Why are Leicester running hot, but not Chelsea? Abraham's numbers are stellar - Pele-like, even. Do we expect him to maintain that form for 38 games?

I was talking about how they're performing as a team rather than individuals. Leicester are pretty lucky to have the points they do so far; Chelsea aren't

From FBref.com  .. Leicester   Goals For    29  /   Goals Against 8
                                                 xG for     14.0 /  XG  Against 11.6

Its ridiculous to run at double your xg - everything they're hitting is going in (not just Vardy)  ... its not remotely sustainable.
They're an above average team in the league just not close to title contenders, solid top 6.

Chelsea by contrast -      Goals for  27  /   Goals Against 17
                                           xG for  23.5 /  xG against 13.2   
(they're a shade under 1 goal in xg difference per game - for context we're bang on 1 so their performance has been really good)

[PhaseOfPlay]

I was talking about how they're performing as a team rather than individuals. Leicester are pretty lucky to have the points they do so far; Chelsea aren't

From FBref.com  .. Leicester   Goals For    29  /   Goals Against 8
                                                 xG for     14.0 /  XG  Against 11.6

Its ridiculous to run at double your xg - everything they're hitting is going in (not just Vardy)  ... its not remotely sustainable.
They're an above average team in the league just not close to title contenders, solid top 6.

Chelsea by contrast -      Goals for  27  /   Goals Against 17
                                           xG for  23.5 /  xG against 13.2   
(they're a shade under 1 goal in xg difference per game - for context we're bang on 1 so their performance has been really good)

From a pure performance level, Leicester are worth their points so far (as are Chelsea, to be fair). They have the league's top scorer, and the best defence, while Chelsea have the second-top scorer, but the 6th worst defence. There's definitely over/under performance from both teams, but I shudder at the "unsustainable" tag. Not because at some point elite performance will fail (it almost will by definition), but the timeline of when that will happen seems to be referenced in the near-future, and sometimes that doesn't happen - largely, in my opinion, because the average game is 50% skill and 50% random chance, and the development of skill skews that ratio towards less dependence on random chance, which makes overperformance more sustainable over a longer block of time, than reliance on chance (which - to my interpretation - is why "possession" teams have more longer term success than "long-ball" teams, because the "possession" teams look to reduce variance).

I think it's a wait and see thing. Chelsea are running at a reasonable 2.96 shots or target per goal, which is close to average, so there attack is probably more sustainable in that sense. Leicester are running at 2 SOT per goal, which is better than even City's. But the question then is - A) how MUCH of a reduction will Leicester see, and B) how much will Chelsea's defence ultimately impact their league performance?

I think both teams are in a good spot, but also are vulnerable to a downturn in results. I'm not sure one is necessarily better-placed than the other to avoid it.

[thisyearisouryear]

Weren't we 7 points clear at one stage last season?

We were. But if you look at the whole context, this season is different. We were never in a dominating lead for an extended period last season.

We had a 7 point lead for 1 game week only, after gw 18. The next week we  lost to City and the lead was cut down to 4. In the next 4 matches, we drew 2 and City lost 1, cutting the lead to 3 points. In the next 4 matches, we drew 2 more while City won every match till the end of the season.

We went on a horrid run, just immediately after moving on top by 7 points. In Jan/Feb we played 9 leagues games and dropped 11 points in them (4W,4D,1L).

[markedasred]

I got pelters for saying that Leicester would have a good season earlier in the season, but I took note of a lad on one of the podcasts who seemed to know stuff saying that they always planned to buy in the winter, with the conversations starting with those prospects several months ago. So not panic buys, more chess moves. If they are there or thereabouts still for a few more weeks, they look to be go in to the 2nd half of the season strengthened. I am less convinced by Chelsea, but the other contenders are trying not to do well by the look of things.

[PoetryInMotion]

Why are Leicester running hot, but not Chelsea? Abraham's numbers are stellar - Pele-like, even. Do we expect him to maintain that form for 38 games?

Also, Chelsea have Europe to negotiate, Leicester don't, which is an advantage.

[PoetryInMotion]

How are you making out his number as Pelé-like? He has 10 in 12. Pele was about 1 in 1, is that what you're after? I give you that one then. I back the original poster though, Vardy for example has way worse underlying number than Abraham. Abraham is overperforming but not excessively, 10 goals to a 7.42 xG. Vardy has 11 goals to a 5.19 xG. That could also mean Vardy is a more astute finisher but it takes away the point that Abraham is running extremely hot.

The difference is that when you're using xG, you have to consider the strength of the striker as well. Vardy has proven to be a top striker for a few years now, while Abraham is a rookie at this level. This is the factor that could show who may be running hot, rather than xG. Now, Abraham might eventually become a top striker, but until then, there's no evidence that he's not running hot as of now.

[PoetryInMotion]

I got pelters for saying that Leicester would have a good season earlier in the season, but I took note of a lad on one of the podcasts who seemed to know stuff saying that they always planned to buy in the winter, with the conversations starting with those prospects several months ago. So not panic buys, more chess moves. If they are there or thereabouts still for a few more weeks, they look to be go in to the 2nd half of the season strengthened. I am less convinced by Chelsea, but the other contenders are trying not to do well by the look of things.

Yeah, I got stopped for saying Leicester had a better team than Man United early in the season.

[RedorRed]

They're not in the title race.

Of course they're in the title race...... if we're beaten today (not impossible) then they're 6 points behind with 26 games to go!!!!! It's ridiculous to say they're not in it.

We have the worst fixture pileup in history coming up.... and Leicester are in a better position in the league than when they won it. And they've got experience of winning it.

Lets not start getting arrogant and losing focus...... we need to be right on it every single game... both as players and fans!!!

[RedorRed]

So that would be today then.. 8pts is real day light for me..

There will still be 26 games to go...... you know what we're like for draws, 2 or 3 of them and we're back in the pack.

[Jack Barrels]

The difference is that when you're using xG, you have to consider the strength of the striker as well. Vardy has proven to be a top striker for a few years now, while Abraham is a rookie at this level. This is the factor that could show who may be running hot, rather than xG. Now, Abraham might eventually become a top striker, but until then, there's no evidence that he's not running hot as of now.

That's true, but isn't that showing itself somewhat in the xG aswell? The difference in xG to actual goals in Vardy's case is substantially bigger than Abrahams. I get that 12 games isn't much to go on, but as a tendency, If he was indeed running hot shouldn't the gap be bigger? He has consistently posted high xG-numbers over the season thus far and isn't deviating massively from his xG. Genuinely asking as I'm hardly an expert on this xG-lark.

[RedorRed]

Or lets not start underrating our own team, they're going to need 95 points plus to topple us, they'll do well to get over 82ish, they're no threat to us, not arrogance, just bloody obvious. I'd guess you had similar posts about Spurs last season where it was arrogant to dismiss them. 

Not underrating us at all but there is sooooo much that can happen between now and the end of the season.... the fixture pileup, injuries, shite VAR

We've never got 95 points before and we've not got them yet this season...... an injury to VVD, Mane, Fab, Booby etc and it could all change.

[davidlpool1982]

Of course they're in the title race...... if we're beaten today (not impossible) then they're 6 points behind with 26 games to go!!!!! It's ridiculous to say they're not in it.

We have the worst fixture pileup in history coming up.... and Leicester are in a better position in the league than when they won it. And they've got experience of winning it.

Lets not start getting arrogant and losing focus...... we need to be right on it every single game... both as players and fans!!!

Only about 5 of that Leicester squad that won the league are still there (that I can think of): Vardy, Albrighton, Schmeichel, Fuchs and Morgan. Only 2 of them you'd consider first team players in Vardy and Schmeichel. Different manager and backroom team too.

[PoetryInMotion]

That's true, but isn't that showing itself somewhat in the xG aswell? The difference in xG to actual goals in Vardy's case is substantially bigger than Abrahams. I get that 12 games isn't much to go on, but as a tendency, If he was indeed running hot shouldn't the gap be bigger? He has consistently posted high xG-numbers over the season thus far and isn't deviating massively from his xG. Genuinely asking as I'm hardly an expert on this xG-lark.

The thing for Vardy is that it doesn't matter if he exceeds his xG. We know that he is a proven 20+ goalscorer regardless. For good strikers, they always tend to exceed their xG and his previous successful seasons show that he is a good striker. Abraham doesn't have that kind of an evidence to show that he can consistently exceed his xG, which is why there is a chance of 1 regressing to the mean more than the other, and that one is not Vardy.

[PoetryInMotion]

Only about 5 of that Leicester squad that won the league are still there (that I can think of): Vardy, Albrighton, Schmeichel, Fuchs and Morgan. Only 2 of them you'd consider first team players in Vardy and Schmeichel. Different manager and backroom team too.

I don't think either Leicester or Chelsea can sustain being in a title race this season, but they're both nailed on for 3rd/4th imo. This Leicester side has better ppg so far than the title winning one had in 12 fixtures.

[Crosby Nick]

Of course they're in the title race...... if we're beaten today (not impossible) then they're 6 points behind with 26 games to go!!!!! It's ridiculous to say they're not in it.

We have the worst fixture pileup in history coming up.... and Leicester are in a better position in the league than when they won it. And they've got experience of winning it.

Lets not start getting arrogant and losing focus...... we need to be right on it every single game... both as players and fans!!!

Leicester do  have more points than at this stage when they won it. But then they only needed about 80 points to win it back then (can’t remember what Arsenal finished on). They could finish above us but if they do I’d say it’s because we’ve dropped off and City will be champions.

[Jon2lfc]

What does the expression "running hot" mean?
As in "Leicester are currently running hot"..

[Zlen]

What does the expression "running hot" mean?
As in "Leicester are currently running hot"..

Same as 'hot streak' I'd say.
Things are going for them, they are on a good series of results and so on.

[SerbianScouser]

9 pts is gigantic cushion.

We'll have our inevitable rough patch at one point but this cushion is more than enough for us get through it and remain top.

Winning mentality is so ingrained in this group they hardly even celebrate goals against their biggest rival - that's how winning is normal to them these days. I trust them fully to get the job done, they're just too good not to be champions.

[Fromola]

I don't think either Leicester or Chelsea can sustain being in a title race this season, but they're both nailed on for 3rd/4th imo. This Leicester side has better ppg so far than the title winning one had in 12 fixtures.

Leicester have the advantage of no Europe and the likes of Vardy won it with them before.  Chelsea a threat.

What Leicester won't do is get anywhere near 97-98 points. They're capable of maybe mid-80s.

We know Man City can go and win 15-20 games in a row so 9 points can quickly evaporate.

We've got a brutal December in terms of number of games and travel so needed a good gap at this point.

[Clayton Bigsby]

Our's to lose now. We can all play the unbiased card and be like City can win a zillion in a row, Leicester bla bla but given how good we are the fact is no one should be closing an 8 or 9 point gap on us in 26 games.

Exactly.

We simply can't throw this away

[gamble]

Still a long way to go.  The standards are so high we are still heading for a 90+ points performance to be champions so can't afford to drop too many points with so many chasers behind us.

Leicester and Chelsea have impressed me with their points haul but City will be the real challengers as they have the squad and pedigree.

But couldn't have asked any more from our lads, amazing start.