Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Ghost Town]

I'm not liking the fact that everyone is now looking beyond MV3 and what happens thereafter, as if it's obvious it's going to pass.

Seems there are only three possible sources of hope to kill off the WA:

1) That Bercow Erskine-Mays May
2) That the ERG zealots hold firm and kill Brexit because it isn't their kind of Brexit
3) That Remaininer MPs suddenly grow a backbone as they see the potential for recovation or a PV in site

The situation can best be described as parlous

[oldfordie]

I think theres another argument not being made.
May has no future deal, the leave campaign promised the country we would have a future deal signed before we left the EU. this promise was made on leave campaign leaflets.
The public seem to think Mays got us a deal as our politicians keep using the words Mays deal, she has nothing but promises. this is not just about the WA, this is about our long term relationship with the EU and none of our politicians are hammering this point home yet.
IMO. we have 2 options.
Labour argue for a long transition which will never pass as we are talking 7 yrs+ and then we can have another referendum or we can have a referndum now, Labour already know Mays future deal, it's a disasterous FTA v remain.
The WA is very important and there is no solution to the NI border but we could be in s,, street if the ERG find a get out clause.

[Nobby Reserve]

Hoping to get through on away goals, would indeed be playing a blinder.

A closer analogy would be getting battered over two legs and losing 10-0, but progressing by default because your opponents were subsequently found to have played an ineligible player.

[Devon Red]

If you fancy a giggle take a look at #MarchToLeave on twitter

[ShakaHislop]

Brexit: EU says UK no-deal tariff plan is ‘illegal’ under WTO rules

The UK government’s no-deal Brexit tariff plan would be “illegal” under World Trade Organisation rules, the EU commissioner in charge of agriculture has said.

Phil Hogan characterised the British plan, which would see no duties levied on goods entering Northern Ireland across the border, as “a political stunt, pure and simple”.

“Our initial assessment is that the proposal is illegal. It is not compatible with WTO rules and it’s the start of a process where they’ll have to get approvals,” he told reporters in Dublin.

“If they want to operate on the basis of being in defiance of well-established WTO rules well then that’s their decision. But ultimately that will not succeed because they will be taken to a panel of dispute settlement.”

The commissioner, who is Ireland’s member on the EU’s executive, added: “I think the timing of it was unfortunate and it was a deliberate attempt to put Ireland more on the agenda, as if it wasn’t on the agenda already.”

He claimed that the “stunt” was an attempt by the UK to “weaken the unity of the EU26 in relation to the Irish backstop”.

The UK plan would mean that 82 per cent of imports from the EU would be tariff-free, down from 100 per cent now.

Imports from the rest of the world would be 92 per cent tariff-free, up from the current 56 per cent.

The WTO’s “most favoured nation” rule, which the UK would have to follow after Brexit, means that countries must treat other WTO members equally in terms of tariffs and quotas, unless they have a recognised free trade agreement in place.

The UK proposal would kick in if no deal is ratified between the EU and UK, and negotiations are not revoked or extended. If the withdrawal agreement is approved there will be a transition period under which the terms of trade do not change.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-tariff-wto-trade-eu-theresa-may-northern-ireland-a8825076.html

[ShakaHislop]

Nick Boles: Tory MP quits local party over Brexit

Tory MP Nick Boles is resigning from his local Conservative association after clashing with them over Brexit.

Mr Boles, who wants to remain as MP for Grantham and Stamford, has spoken out about leaving the EU with no deal.

Local activists had wanted to deselect him as their candidate in the next general election because of his stance.

In his letter, seen by the BBC, he said he was resigning with immediate effect and that a "division had opened up" between him and the local association.

He wrote: "I regret that my relationship with you should end in this way. But a politician without principles is worthless.

"I am in no doubt about my duty, which is to be true to my convictions and to dedicate the rest of my time in Parliament to the best interests of the people I was elected to serve."

Mr Boles said he wanted to continue to "take the Conservative whip" at Westminster if it is offered "on acceptable terms" - meaning he would still vote with the party.

Councillor Martin Hill, vice president of the Grantham and Stamford Conservative Association, told members they had been "betrayed by their parliamentary representative" and called on him to take the "honourable course" and quit as an MP.

He wrote: "As you are all aware, Nick has been at odds with the local party and the prime minister for some time, so this announcement does not come as a complete surprise, but the timing does leave at lot to be desired."

He said the process of selecting a new candidate would start at the group's AGM later this month.

Chief Whip Julian Smith said Mr Boles was a "valued member of the Conservative parliamentary party which I hope will continue to benefit from his ideas and drive".

Mr Boles had voted in favour of extending Article 50 in the Commons this week, and in favour of Mrs May's Brexit deal.

In his letter, he said: "While I have consistently argued that Brexit must be delivered, and have voted for the prime minister's deal every time she has brought it to the House of Commons, I am certain that crashing out of the EU without a deal would do great harm to the British people and have done everything in my power to prevent it."

Mr Boles said he was "proud" of his role in the cross-party campaign to force Mrs May to request an extension to Article 50 beyond 29 March and block a no-deal Brexit.

"In securing substantial Commons majorities in favour of both propositions last week, I believe we have done the country a great service," he added.

Mr Boles is keen on a closer Norway-style relationship with Europe after leaving the EU.

But Mr Hill told the BBC: "Talk to the man and woman on the street and they're also quite angry that their MP seems to be going back on what he promised to do at the general election. He signed up to the manifesto about coming out of the single market and the customs union."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47594875

[Betty Blue]

"...WTO rules like the rest of the world"

I despair.

https://twitter.com/WombleFree/status/1106868223058866176

[Yosser0_0]

I was at my parents the other day, they are both in their 70's and I asked them if would vote differently if there was another referendum and my Dad was saying he probably would because it isn't what he wanted in terms of actually getting out of the EU completely. Was saying that we may as well say in rather than a half in / half out, his fear is that it was becoming a federal Europe and didn't like how much it costs us - cited the benefit payments being paid directly to people living in countries in the EU and he doesn't agree with the freedom of movement. I was saying to him that the UK has exemptions to many of the EU agreements and can influence policy whilst it is a member, something which it can't after leaving. I explained how insignificant the UK has become to the rest of the world as a trading "partner" and the mess the current politicians have been making of the Japan and WTO negotiations. When asked about what the advantages are in leaving, aside from "taking back control" he couldn't come up with one and did concede that we are knackered as a nation in terms of manufacturing, retail etc.

My mum just wants us out now, saying that there is no way that the likes of Spain will suddenly stop sending fruit and veg over, I said they wouldn't be able to without a legal agreement. She said that we don't need anybody anyway, we can be self sufficient, umm, on one hand we need imports from Spain but we don't need anyone? 

....What can you do? 

To be honest I take anything that my Mum says with a pinch of salt, but my Dad is an intelligent reasonably grounded bloke, although I've never really understood his politics given his background. He's a working class scouser born and bread in Liverpool yet has mainly voted Tory to the best of my knowledge. He hates trade unions and blames them for much of the demise of UK industry, doesn't agree with nationalised industries - apart from the NHS surprisingly. However he does concede that they have made a mess of the buses, trains, utility companies so I don't get what he has against them apart from them being "inefficient" and full of layabouts. I explained to him that British Rail was the most efficient railway system in the world before privatisation and to this day I still can't work out what the benefit was to the taxpayer. After working in and then loosing a couple of jobs in manufacturing, he's been self employed and quite successful, he bought into Thatchers policies such as "get on your bike" and I think she was a bit of a hero for him. Our discussions about Thatcher can get quite heated and we tend to leave that subject alone nowadays! 

Each to their own I suppose.   

[killer-heels]

"...WTO rules like the rest of the world"

I despair.

https://twitter.com/WombleFree/status/1106868223058866176

Dedication having a WTO argument in a field when its pissing it down with rain and windy.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

If you fancy a giggle take a look at #MarchToLeave on twitter

all 30 of them...

[Welshred]

Snip

You're brave mate there's no way I could have a conversation with my family about Brexit, they all voted to leave with me the only remainer.

[stoa]

all 30 of them...

Well, it looks like they're doing this march in the 1980s Soviet Union. Can't blame people for not turning up for that...

[Yosser0_0]

You're brave mate there's no way I could have a conversation with my family about Brexit, they all voted to leave with me the only remainer.

I'm trying to gauge the feeling at the moment as there's been a lot of water under the bridge and peoples views change. You do need to be careful how you approach the discussion though. Are your family also working class?

[Welshred]

I'm trying to gauge the feeling at the moment as there's been a lot of water under the bridge and peoples views change. You do need to be careful how you approach the discussion though. Are your family also working class?

Yeah, south Wales valleys for pretty much their whole lives. All I see and hear is anti-EU sentiment from all my family which is depressing.

[Iska]

I made the mistake of being near my family recently when the subject came up, I exploded after about five seconds, and felt a right dick because I’m engaged in a totally different way to them so my rage seemed massively disproportionate.  Sat on my hands thereafter.  One just enjoys gossiping about the personalities and the spectacle, the others want brexit but on the basis that a decision’s been made so it’s got to be seen through.  I suspect that’s probably fairly representative of the general public.

I daren’t ask what anybody really thinks of the issue itself, in case I end up despising them.

[Yosser0_0]

Yeah, south Wales valleys for pretty much their whole lives. All I see and hear is anti-EU sentiment from all my family which is depressing.

My granddad came from the Rhondda valley and the family moved to Liverpool for work - I believe that's where our family's "stubborn" gene is inherited from. The Irish blood provides our rebellious side! 

[TheShanklyGates]

UK, Survation poll:

EU membership ref

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 47% (-1)

+/- vs. 18 Feb. '19

Field work: 15/03/19
Sample size: 794

There are none so blind as those who will not see. I'm convinced that leave would win again in the unlikely event there is another referendum.

[cowtownred]

UK, Survation poll:

EU membership ref

Remain: 53% (+1)
Leave: 47% (-1)

+/- vs. 18 Feb. '19

Field work: 15/03/19
Sample size: 794

There are none so blind as those who will not see. I'm convinced that leave would win again in the unlikely event there is another referendum.

Agree.

[thejbs]

If remain was to win a second ref it would be down to new votes rather than converted leavers. It would be close, but I think remain has the edge.

[rob1966]

"...WTO rules like the rest of the world"

I despair.

https://twitter.com/WombleFree/status/1106868223058866176

The major flaw in the whole referendum right there, allowing someone who knows nothing about what they are voting for to vote on it, then carrying it out even though it is to his and everyone elses detriment - except the rich.

[Red Beret]

If remain was to win a second ref it would be down to new votes rather than converted leavers. It would be close, but I think remain has the edge.

Disagree a bit on that.

First, a number people were stupid in the first vote, and have acknowledged they were stupid.  They either didn't understand what they were voting on or used the opportunity to register a ridiculous protest vote.

Second, any number of Remainers didn't actually bother to vote as they thought the result was a shoe in.  I imagine they will not be so complacent a second time around.

I'm not saying it wouldn't be a close vote, but I do believe Remain are more than capable of winning with a far larger margin than Leave did last time out.

[redbyrdz]

Where does this fear of a federal Europe come from?


...and is it related to the fear of a federal Britain? I've heard that one before too, and don't understand it, given that the UK is nearly federal anyway, with Scotland, Wales, and NI having their own parliaments, police, laws, NHS etc.

[Juan Kerr]

You're brave mate there's no way I could have a conversation with my family about Brexit, they all voted to leave with me the only remainer.

I'm the opposite I regularly tell my Dad, Wife and Mother in Law that there fucking idiots for voting leave.
The Wife gets it but my Dad and Mother in Law are hopeless cases.

[drmick]

Disagree a bit on that.

First, a number people were stupid in the first vote, and have acknowledged they were stupid.  They either didn't understand what they were voting on or used the opportunity to register a ridiculous protest vote.

Second, any number of Remainers didn't actually bother to vote as they thought the result was a shoe in.  I imagine they will not be so complacent a second time around.

I'm not saying it wouldn't be a close vote, but I do believe Remain are more than capable of winning with a far larger margin than Leave did last time out.

I'm also in the camp that Leave would likely win again. Thankfully it is a moot point since even if there is a second referendum the question will be different.

[stara]

Led By Donkeys in United Kingdom
https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/by-donkeys

 

[Dr. Beaker]

Where does this fear of a federal Europe come from?

The vast intracranial void.

[Machae]

I'm also in the camp that Leave would likely win again. Thankfully it is a moot point since even if there is a second referendum the question will be different.

No chance, Remain would win easily. That's why the power brokers are not advocating a 2nd referendum

[So… Howard Philips]

Led By Donkeys in United Kingdom
https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/by-donkeys

 

The full quote was 'Lions led by donkeys". Don't see many lions in that bedraggled lot.

[oldfordie]

Brilliant. they are not amused,
https://twitter.com/Captain_Brexit/status/1106964967054561281

[ShakaHislop]

Peston's latest blog.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-16/dont-bet-therell-be-a-third-vote-on-theresa-mays-deal/

Although the prime minister wants to hold another “meaningful vote” on her Brexit plan next week, it is by no means certain that, when it comes to the crunch, she will choose to do so.

I am told by her close colleagues, that two conditions must be met for her to go ahead with the vote, probably on Tuesday.

First, Northern Ireland’s DUP must say on Monday that they have, at the last, changed their minds and have decided to vote with her.

So, the second – and obvious – condition that would have to be met for May to have a third shot at ratification of her deal is that her whips, led by Julian Smith, would need to be confident that she could significantly reduce the margin of defeat or (less plausibly) actually win.

Brexit: DUP says issues remain over deal

A DUP party spokesman said: "We are in discussions with the government to ensure Northern Ireland is not separated out from the rest of the United Kingdom as we leave the European Union. Contrary to some reports, we are not discussing cash.

"There are still issues to be addressed in our discussions."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47597093

[ShakaHislop]

Meanwhile, shadow chancellor John McDonnell said "quite a number" of MPs would be prepared to support a compromise deal, with the guarantee the deal goes back to the people for a final say on Brexit.

Speaking before an event in Gravesend, Kent, Mr McDonnell said politicians would move "heaven and earth" to prevent the UK from leaving the EU without a deal.

But any final say should not be on the deal Mrs May has agreed, "because it's not credible", he said.

[Red Beret]

There's no way May is overturning a 145 deficit.  If she's really lucky she'll get it below 100, perhaps 80.  That might give her the confidence to go for a fourth vote but she's definitely not winning a third.

I really hope Parliament has some gonads on this and stands firm.

[rob1966]

There's no way May is overturning a 145 deficit.  If she's really lucky she'll get it below 100, perhaps 80.  That might give her the confidence to go for a fourth vote but she's definitely not winning a third.

I really hope Parliament has some gonads on this and stands firm.

We can't have a second referendum but she can have as many votes as she wants to push us off a cliff?

[TheShanklyGates]

Clear as mud once again

They really couldn't make it any more obvious that they'd rather any other outcome than remain.

[killer-heels]

There's no way May is overturning a 145 deficit.  If she's really lucky she'll get it below 100, perhaps 80.  That might give her the confidence to go for a fourth vote but she's definitely not winning a third.

I really hope Parliament has some gonads on this and stands firm.

She is winning MV4.

[Zeb]

If you've an hour to waste, this is really good, if only for the alternative perspective from how pro-European Tories are seeing this from within government.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/G0Grig4T7Bo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/G0Grig4T7Bo</a>

[Red Beret]

We can't have a second referendum but she can have as many votes as she wants to push us off a cliff?

The only way she is winning this is if she stands up in Parliament and says if they don't vote it through she'll cancel it altogether and unilaterally push through a no deal Brexit.  I'm not sure if that's even legal but with less than two weeks to go it wont be easy to find the time to argue about it in court.

[killer-heels]

If you've an hour to waste, this is really good, if only for the alternative perspective from how pro-European Tories are seeing this from within government.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/G0Grig4T7Bo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/G0Grig4T7Bo</a>

Thats my Saturday evening sorted.

[killer-heels]

How many people grandparents will be lost in the Brexit march from Sunderland to London? 200 miles is a long way to walk for the oldies.

[Ghost Town]

How many people grandparents will be lost in the Brexit march from Sunderland to London? 200 miles is a long way to walk for the oldies.

It's OK there are only about 30 of them, and most of them are taking the bus, or punching women.