Time to get involved with this I think.
Due to doing quite well recently, I'm going to take this as an opportunity to try something new.
Instead of backing things based on my opinion (what do I know?!) or impulse, I'm going to have a go based strictly on statistics. I've knocked up a little spreadsheet for deciding what games to back overs in. It's nothing groundbreaking, just takes the stats from the last 5 respective home/away games for each team in terms of goals scored/conceded to give an average number of goals in recent games. I'll be backing over 1.5 goals, so I'll look to get involved with games where the sides have averaged over 2.5 goals per game as extra 'security'.
Once that criteria is satisfied, I'll look at the number of the last 5 games from each side that have had over 1.5 goals and turn this into two percentages, which, when added together and divided by 2, give an average percentage. This is converted to a decimal price which is what the price 'should be'. Obviously, the figures aren't 'true' because I'm only looking at the last 5 games, but I feel they're more relevant - strikers in form, injuries, defence having trouble etc - so that'll do. This will then be compared to the real price and only those that are bigger than the price they 'should be' will be included.
It won't be much fun to watch, but hopefully me writing about it on here will give me some discipline so you can put up with it. With the reasoning behind the bets being entirely statistical, all I'll put up are the stats, not an explanation as such.
Anyway, enough of the shite. I'll look to get bets put on as quickly as possible, 1 a day would be great (an extra £52k a year would be nice, eh?
) but where it isn't possible I'll span bets over a few days.
Here's to me winning a grand!
Wed 19th Jan 2011 - Bet 1 - £1017:45 - Dutch Eredivisie -
Twente v Heracles - Av. Goals 3.8, 100% over 1.5 goals, projected price 1.01 (it's actually 1.00, but I'll refer to that as 1.01 as it's the smallest price that can be found), actual price 1.1.
WON19:00 - Belgian 2nd Division -
RDB Borinage v FC Brussels - Av. Goals 2.8, 90% over 1.5 goals, projected price 1.11, actual price 1.20
WON19:00 - Belgian 2nd Division -
Antwerp v Vise - Av. Goals 2.6, 90% over 1.5 goals, projected price 1.11, actual price 1.17
WON19:45 - English Blue Square South -
Lewes v Bromley - Av. Goals 3.4, 100% over 1.5 goals, projected price 1.01, actual price 1.25
19:45 - Dutch Eredivisie -
AZ Alkmaar v NEC Nijmegen - Av. Goals 3.3, 100% over 1.5 goals, projected price 1.01, actual price 1.17
WONPrice: 2.24
Returns: £22.47
