Topic: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE

[oldfordie]

Geordies reckon they'll be in local lockdown come Friday too.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/local-lockdown-north-east-rules-18945698

May soon be quicker to say the part of the country which aren't under local lockdown. "London, the south, and Norwich."

Surprised, I thought they looked at the numbers per thousand and then took a decision.
Newcastle 64 per 100.000.
Liverpools number has shot up, from 66 per 100.000 a week ago to
106 per 100.000.  not looking good, pictures of Concert square at the weekend were awful. chocka block.

[Zeb]

Surprised, I thought they looked at the numbers per thousand and then took a decision.
Newcastle 64 per 100.000.
Liverpools number has shot up, from 66 per 100.000 a week ago to
106 per 100.000.  not looking good, pictures of Concert square at the weekend were awful. chocka block.

Think it's the rate of change and where/why it's happening too. If it's like a single outbreak, say at a factory, it seems they just focus on that without needing to bring in measures for the whole community. Week before Newcastle was 50 cases per 100k. And similar increases across the NE. 40 cases per 100k is when government start looking at measures. Why Rotheram was out the other week warning about Liverpool and Merseyside generally being on the brink of further measures being brought in.

[Welshred]

There go my birthday plans then, was going to spend Thursday/Sunday with my family, but doesn't seem like any point now with the lockdowns up ahead. 

Just take them to the pub instead Jill

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

A ban on socialising with anyone from a different household and a 10pm pubs curfew are likely to be included, in a bid to stop the spread of Covid-19

Well things are clearly improving as it seems the virus is only transmittable after 10pm.

 

[jillcwhomever]

Just take them to the pub instead Jill

I haven't been in a pub for six months, they live away from Merseyside too. Decided to leave it until we know more on Friday.

[PaulF]

Just take them to the pub instead Jill

Or get tickets for the test crowds of a thousand. I suspect man city will have spares 😀

[Welshred]

Or get tickets for the test crowds of a thousand. I suspect man city will have spares 😀

Grouse shooting is another option as well

[jillcwhomever]

Grouse shooting is another option as well

If I went grouse shooting, it wouldn't be the grouse I'd be shooting. 

[PaulF]

Grouse shooting is another option as well

That's t the second reference to that I've seen. Are they allowing shooting parties of more than six?

[jillcwhomever]

That's t the second reference to that I've seen. Are they allowing shooting parties of more than six?

Is the Government minister for Wildlife a man who likes to shoot at the weekend?

[Welshred]

That's t the second reference to that I've seen. Are they allowing shooting parties of more than six?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/14/hunting-in-england-exempt-from-rule-of-six-covid-19-restrictions

Yep

If I went grouse shooting, it wouldn't be the grouse I'd be shooting. 

If you dislike your family that much why are you planning on spending time with them?

[PaulF]

Is the Government minister for Wildlife a man who likes to shoot at the weekend?

You're shitting me?

[TepidT2O]

Turn out in tweed with shotguns and occasionally remark loudly you saw a grouse. Job's a good'un.

They pronounce it Gryce!

Everyone knows viruses don’t like grouse and are avid followers of extended drinking hours.

[jillcwhomever]

You're shitting me?

Not at all, its the usual Tory thing to do.

[jillcwhomever]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/14/hunting-in-england-exempt-from-rule-of-six-covid-19-restrictions

Yep

If you dislike your family that much why are you planning on spending time with them?

You know I wasn' t meaning my family. 

[oldfordie]

Think it's the rate of change and where/why it's happening too. If it's like a single outbreak, say at a factory, it seems they just focus on that without needing to bring in measures for the whole community. Week before Newcastle was 50 cases per 100k. And similar increases across the NE. 40 cases per 100k is when government start looking at measures. Why Rotheram was out the other week warning about Liverpool and Merseyside generally being on the brink of further measures being brought in.

Yeah, that's what I read, they don't just bring a lock down if the figures shoot up they look to see if they can put the rise to a out break in a factory etc but Liverpool has been rising weekly so I am not sure this is a reason for the big rise, we shall see but I can see a local lockdown coming in soon.

[jillcwhomever]

You're shitting me?

Here you go, Paul.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/wildlife-minister-richard-benyon-under-fire-in-another-game-shooting-case-7801027.html

[jillcwhomever]

Shamefully the SNP passed the same exemption in Scotland.

If it wasn't for this wretched covid, I'd be rejoining LACS.

[Elmo!]

If it wasn't for this wretched covid, I'd be rejoining LACS.

To be honest, I deleted that comment because I hadn't actually read what the exemption was for, both from the Tories and the SNP. There isn't actually specific exemptions for hunting - its just for outdoor organised sports.

[Lee1-6Liv]

I wouldn’t be surprised if some of our test results at the moment or in the near future are coming from Germany to be honest.

They are being sent to Germany and Italy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/covid-tests-sent-to-italy-and-germany-as-uk-labs-are-overwhelmed

[didi shamone]

They are being sent to Germany and Italy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/covid-tests-sent-to-italy-and-germany-as-uk-labs-are-overwhelmed

I think Irish tests go to Germany too. Not sure what volume. Well thats what my mother said.

We were watching channel four doing a report from Frankfurt Airport which is now more busy than Heathrow. The reporter got tested in the Airport, result in 6 hours and no quarantine.
Typical Germans as a certain gin soaked Scot once said.

[WorldChampions]

Crazies were out on Market Street in Manchester today.

"Say no to vaccines"
"Say no to the muzzle"
"End social distancing"

Wankers.

[7777]

What's the magical X in 100,000 cases relate to? Does anyone know the science behind why that is considered to be an outbreak? What pushes an area into a red threshold?

Is it in relation to the R value? Or is there an assumed knock on effect of hospitilisations / deaths per X number of cases?

The Government seem to be ready to lock down whole regions (I've see the whole of the North West mentioned) when there are area's that have had no cases whatsoever.

As an example, I looked at cases per area in Warrington yesterday as it's where my parents live and whilst there was an increase, there was only 5 in their whole area in the last week with 13 in the area that was the highest. The numbers as a collective look big (ish) but many areas had 0-2 cases only!

[PaulF]

I don't have any problem with Germany doing the lab part of our tests of it means we have an effective testing programme.

@7777 I think cases per 100k is like xG. A very useful metric, but you have to see the bigger picture.

[CraigDS]

I don't have any problem with Germany doing the lab part of our tests of it means we have an effective testing programme.

You do have to wonder why we can’t manage to do it ourselves though.

[PaulF]

Actually... If we had to spend loads of money on test equipment and train up lots of staff, then it might not be a bad idea using German companies.( Depending on how long we expect to need the testing capacity). Rather that than companies set up here by Tory mates. And obviously this only counts of the Germans still process our tests when their need Ramos up.

[PaulF]

Actually... If we had to spend loads of money on test equipment and train up lots of staff, then it might not be a bad idea using German companies.( Depending on how long we expect to need the testing capacity). Rather that than companies set up here by Tory mates. And obviously this only counts of the Germans still process our tests when their need ramps up.

[carling]

Actually... If we had to spend loads of money on test equipment and train up lots of staff, then it might not be a bad idea using German companies.( Depending on how long we expect to need the testing capacity). Rather that than companies set up here by Tory mates. And obviously this only counts of the Germans still process our tests when their need Ramos up.

To be honest I'm quite sure there'll be Tory mates over in Germany..

Hancock's lack of self-awareness reaching new heights.  Last week 'don't kill your gran'.  This week 'don't get unnecessary tests'.

[CraigDS]

Actually... If we had to spend loads of money on test equipment and train up lots of staff, then it might not be a bad idea using German companies.( Depending on how long we expect to need the testing capacity). Rather that than companies set up here by Tory mates. And obviously this only counts of the Germans still process our tests when their need Ramos up.

There is (should be) another option though... as in we make use of our supposed great scientific industry and create a top class testing network in this country, regardless of who the lab owner is best mates with, which we can manage efficiently and not require to send tests abroad.

[filopastry]

This tweet from a member of Independent SAGE certainly makes "interesting" reading if true.

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022

Anthony Costello@globalhlthtwit

I’m hearing from a well-connected person that government now thinks, in absence of testing, there are 38,000 infections per day. Chris Whitty is advising PM for a two week national lockdown.

[djahern]

This tweet from a member of Independent SAGE certainly makes "interesting" reading if true.

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022

Surely he's added an extra zero to that?

Just cant see how it could be at that level at all. Surveys would suggest we might be at the 5000 range maybe but 38000 is a bit of a stretch.

[filopastry]

Surely he's added an extra zero to that?

Just cant see how it could be at that level at all. Surveys would suggest we might be at the 5000 range maybe but 38000 is a bit of a stretch.

It seemed a bit out there to me as well, only reposted because of the original poster not being a complete nobody.

[Black Bull Nova]

That's t the second reference to that I've seen. Are they allowing shooting parties of more than six?

Indeed, it is comforting to know that if you've had to cancel to Covid-19 after party you can call in at Barnard Castle on the way to a £350 a gun grouse shoot in Northumberland. It is essential, of course, that the shooting season gets to continue otherwise it will be bad for the wildlife conservation in those areas.

As for the other sporting pleasure of hunting

"The Hunting Office is working hard to clarify the situation and get firm advice on Hunting operations. We are confident that Hunting will be able to continue and will issue more guidance as soon as we can.  For the time being, it is essential that anyone coming out hunting (mounted or on foot) form clearly distinct and separate groups of no more than 6 - the Fieldmaster, Hunt Officials and the Covid Compliance Officer should be responsible for making sure these groups remain wholly separate throughout the course of the activities.  To be clear, while is it fine for attendees to spread out, at no point must people gather in groups of more than 6. "

Which is a strange interpretation along the lines of ensuring no clusters develop but the groups of 6 can probably interchange before or afterwards at will. That above makes not a blind bit of difference but appears to get around any rules (on the website at least). It just shows how confusing this all is and how people are now making up their own rules to suit them.

 

 

[Zeb]

London's public health sounding the advance notice we heard up here a couple of weeks back.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-curfew-coronavirus-a4548646.html

With the epidemic expected to hit the city with far greater force in coming weeks, Professor Kevin Fenton, London director of Public Health England, made clear that more restrictions may be imposed, including some possibly across the capital, to avoid a more stringent lockdown.

In an exclusive interview with the Evening Standard, he also issued an urgent appeal to Londoners, hailing them for their “phenomenal” efforts in crushing the first wave and urging them to “do it again” now.

Professor Fenton said:

* About 500,000 students are coming to London from around the country and world for the start of term which is likely to increase infections.

* Demand for testing is outstripping capacity, with the numbers of tests in London about 150,000 a week as they are focused on hotspots in the North and Midlands. The number of positive tests announced for the city yesterday was 278, though this may be an underestimate given the shortages.

* Some coronavirus clusters are happening in care homes, particularly in outer London.

* About 10 London boroughs have coronavirus rates of some 30 cases per 100,000 population over a seven-day rolling average.

* Young people in the capital are fuelling the rise, though there are also other factors.

* It was not clear where people caught the virus when asked about “clusters” of cases in workplaces.

* Schools are now “understanding their role much more effectively” in dealing with suspected cases.

* The Tube is “safe”.

* Voiced optimism over a vaccine but warned of difficult autumn and winter.

[CraigDS]

Surely he's added an extra zero to that?

Just cant see how it could be at that level at all. Surveys would suggest we might be at the 5000 range maybe but 38000 is a bit of a stretch.

It’s already 3k+ with the current testing, so is it that much of a push to think a mix of those not getting tested but have symptoms and those being asymptomatic may make this towards 38k?

[djahern]

It’s already 3k+ with the current testing, so is it that much of a push to think a mix of those not getting tested but have symptoms and those being asymptomatic may make this towards 38k?

Not impossible I guess, but just doesn't add up for me. It would mean that our ONS surveillance survey was either complete junk or transmission has escalated hugely in the space of 10 days.

Survey estimated 2000-4600 infections per day and a total of 30-50k had COVID for the week ending September 5th. It really should pick up asymptomatic spread better than the daily positive test numbers. Next data on Friday covering the week up to last weekend and I'd expect it to show higher transmission but not be pointing at that kind of level.

[classycarra]

Number looked well off to me, so am relieved to see more measured posters thinking the same.

I find Costello to prone to fraught hyperbole, and quick to sling things out (then slow/quiet when it comes to his corrections). So I can be biased with him.

To his credit I know he took a teleconference from some mutual friends of mine working on health protection in london and accepted their corrections of his pretty nasty accusations against health workers. He wrote a tweet thread about it and everything. But then a few weeks later he started on the old routine again.

[djahern]

Trying to go by what should be a reliable number - hospital admissions.

This was 140 today (previous days 172, 153, 143, 135, 143). We can try estimate infections from about 9 days ago as it takes an average of 9 days from symptoms to hospital admission. So if 1% require hospitalisation, it was about 14k daily infections 9 days ago and if 5% require hospitalisation then it was about 3k daily infections about 9 days ago. Huge difference obviously and I’m not quite sure where the current thinking is of what proportion of total infections lead to hospitalisation, but I’d lean toward the later. Of course the rates of 20% quoted in March/April are unreliable now.

[filopastry]

Trying to go by what should be a reliable number - hospital admissions.

This was 140 today (previous days 172, 153, 143, 135, 143). We can try estimate infections from about 9 days ago as it takes an average of 9 days from symptoms to hospital admission. So if 1% require hospitalisation, it was about 14k daily infections 9 days ago and if 5% require hospitalisation then it was about 3k daily infections about 9 days ago. Huge difference obviously and I’m not quite sure where the current thinking is of what proportion of total infections lead to hospitalisation, but I’d lean toward the later. Of course the rates of 20% quoted in March/April are unreliable now.

Do you think the significant growth in hospitalisation in September is driven by a relatively high overall R number at present or more a case of more of the growth now being concentrated in at risk populations?

Just asking as on the face of it it doesn't necessarily look consistent with the officeial R being in the 1.0 - 1.2 range

[djahern]

Do you think the significant growth in hospitalisation in September is driven by a relatively high overall R number at present or more a case of more of the growth now being concentrated in at risk populations?

Just asking as on the face of it it doesn't necessarily look consistent with the officeial R being in the 1.0 - 1.2 range

Personally I think r is higher than 1.2. We had two estimates come out last Friday, 1.0-1.2 from ONS and 1.4-2.0 from imperial’s React-1 study. I think that imperials is probably more accurate as the period of time it’s looking at is closer to the present. It’s possible imperials study picked out any uptick better.

But in answer to your question, probably both. An increased r and older people getting it will lead to a rise in admissions.