Topic: LIVERPOOL TRANSFER THREAD - WELCOME, 'A PLAYER'!!

[Skeeve]

Do we need to replace Salah, Mane, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Milner, etc this summer? Succession planning is about replacing them when the time is right

No it isn't, proper succession planning is about having the right replacement settled into your club before you need to think about replacing the one they are succeeding, for too long we have found ourselves in the situation where signings were being brought in and expected to contribute immediately because we were filling a gap.

The ideal time to be signing players is when you don't need them to come in right away and can take the time to settle, particularly since Klopp has shown that he is going to tend towards that approach anyway so it only makes sense to build that timing into any transfer plans too.

[Lynndenberries]

The powers of self delusion are strong in the RAWKite masses.

It's easy to get excited about someone like Thiago 

[Samie]

The powers of self delusion are strong in the RAWKite masses.

There are very few things Rawk excels at mate. 

[Oskar]

The bolded bit is important here, as we have almost become immune to bad transfers in the last four years. It's not very often this opportunity presents itself and I suspect it's the kind of transfer FSG and Edwards would be intrigued by. We haven't really taken a risk on a player since Klopp came in and this would be a great chance to take one.

Would they?

It sounds like a player wants one last big contract and so he and his representatives are fishing for a move. The German journalist who started this saying he'd heard that Bayern Munich's players thought Thiago was going to Liverpool is now saying he's heard similar rumours about Manchester United being interested, so at the moment it seems far more likely to be a case of a player trying to engineer something rather than anything that we're instigating or are involved in.

[Skeeve]

The fact that Thiago is arguably undervalued in the current market, doesn't that make him a decent FSG type signing? Yes, we typically target younger players entering their peaks, but FSG have taken a similar strategy at times with the Red Sox.

He isn't undervalued at 35 million for a 29 year old in the final year of his contract though and Bayern have already said that those figures being mentioned are not what they would be after, so the price would be higher than that in a summer when we have already backed out of a deal on the basis of cost.

[Fromola]

The bolded bit is important here, as we have almost become immune to bad transfers in the last four years. It's not very often this opportunity presents itself and I suspect it's the kind of transfer FSG and Edwards would be intrigued by. We haven't really taken a risk on a player since Klopp came in and this would be a great chance to take one.

It certainly wouldn't be an FSG/Edwards deal. If we go for him it'll be because Klopp wants him and the club back him because he's earned that, in the way Rodgers probably hadn't when he wanted to sign a 29 year old defender from Swansea for example and was overruled for a committee sanctioned younger defender.

[killer-heels]

It hasn't taken me long to get convinced about this one - I was skeptical initially but if you can sign him you should.

You don't dictate or undermine a transfer strategy with one deal
And you also shouldn't pass up deals which are obivously insane value because of a general principle.

If Thiago is being reasonable on wages and really wants to come you've got the opportuntiy to sign one of the two or three best CMs in the world .... one of a handful or players in football who instantly improve us .... at a knock down fee
You just do it and figure everything else out (balancing the books, team shape etc) later - there's zero downside

It hasn't taken me long either to be convinced by this. I have seen Bayern a fair few times in Champions League action and he has always looked a class act. 29 is not old at all for a player of his style.

[Coolie High]

He isn't undervalued at 35 million for a 29 year old in the final year of his contract though and Bayern have already said that those figures being mentioned are not what they would be after, so the price would be higher than that in a summer when we have already backed out of a deal on the basis of cost.

Why does everyone keep mentioning 29? 29 is not old, and the best attackers in the world are all 27+. Lewandowski Mane Salah Messi Neymar Hazard Ronaldo Aguero.

[JackWard33]

Would be amazed if United weren't in for him fwiw ... they should be

[El Lobo]

Why does everyone keep mentioning 29? 29 is not old, and the best attackers in the world are all 27+. Lewandowski Mane Salah Messi Neymar Hazard Ronaldo Aguero.

I think you’ll find the best attackers in the world are 25, 24, 22, 22 and 18

[Stockholm Syndrome]

A lot of people are going to be mad when we don't sign him

[royhendo]

21 senior players we've signed in 5 years. It breaks down as follows.

https://www.lfchistory.net/Transfers/ByManager/28/1

One loan.
Four frees.
Two negotiated fees on youngsters.
Five goalies (three frees, £4.7m for Karius, £65m on Alisson )
Five centre halves (Caulker on loan, Matip on a free, £4.2m for Klavan, £4.4m for Sepp, £75m on Virg)
One full back (Robertson for a Kevin Stewart)
5 midfielders (£5.1m for Grujic, £25m on Gini, £35m on Ox, £43.7m on Fabinho, £52.75 on Keita)
6 forwards (negotiated fees for Solanke and Elliot, £7.25 on Minamino, £13.75m on Shaq, £30m on Mane, £43.9m on Salah).

Ages on purchase.
16 - Elliot
17 - Van Den Berg
19 - Solanke
20 - Grujic
23 - Karius, Robertson, Ox, Keita
24 - Matip, Caulker, Minamino, Mane, Fabinho
25 - Gini, Salah, Alisson
26 - Shaq, Virgil
30 - Klavan
32 - Adrian
35 - Andy Lonergan
39 - Alex Manninger.

There you go.

[Qston]

It hasn't taken me long either to be convinced by this. I have seen Bayern a fair few times in Champions League action and he has always looked a class act. 29 is not old at all for a player of his style.

That's the thing nowadays. Some of us older heads need to start remembering that players who were 'past it' 20 years ago at approaching 30 isn`t necessarily the case now with much better physical conditioning and diet. Milner is a great example of that and I suspect Hendo will be another example.

In any event, when you sign a top player I suspect most of us would be happy with 3 or 4 'peak years' for that player. We all hope for more, but the reality is usually different. A ready made top talent, currently undervalued because of a contract situation albeit in a strange market at the moment, does have huge obvious benefits. That doesn`t mean we will sign him, but I can certainly see why the club could be interested at a sensible price and wage.

[Stockholm Syndrome]

That's the thing nowadays. Some of us older heads need to start remembering that players who were 'past it' 20 years ago at approaching 30 isn`t necessarily the case now with much better physical conditioning and diet. Milner is a great example of that and I suspect Hendo will be another example.

In any event, when you sign a top player I suspect most of us would be happy with 3 or 4 'peak years' for that player. We all hope for more, but the reality is usually different. A ready made top talent, currently undervalued because of a contract situation albeit in a strange market at the moment, does have huge obvious benefits. That doesn`t mean we will sign him, but I can certainly see why the club could be interested at a sensible price and wage.

Thats the thing I think will hold it up. All the factors re age and injury can be overlook if this is sensible, but by all accounts it won't be. 34 million is being said to be too low, and in terms of wages I very much imagine he will want more than our top earning players, considering he is coming from an elite team and he is an elite player.

[Skeeve]

Why does everyone keep mentioning 29? 29 is not old, and the best attackers in the world are all 27+. Lewandowski Mane Salah Messi Neymar Hazard Ronaldo Aguero.

No, it isn't old for a player, but the simple fact of the matter is that players coming to the PL for the first time later in their career tend to have a much lower success rate and while some of that might be due to a number of them simply coming for a final big contract, there is more to it than that.

For those in the 29 is not old camp, how about providing some examples of outfield players who came from other countries to the PL for the first time at 28+ and were a success?

[afc tukrish]

There are very few things Rawk excels at mate. 

cat-flap extraction, and refrigerator shifting...

[Qston]

how old was Kenny when we brought him in? late 20's I'm sure.

27 I think

[markmywords]

[/quote]

The age of a player is always a valid point to consider when taken in the context of them moving to the pl for the first time, there's very few (if any?) moves that have worked out when a player has come to the league at 29/30 for their last big contract and while he might end up being an exception you absolutely do have to consider it as a factor.

This seems to be the latest old wives tale doing the rounds at the local bingo

up there with the need for " a british spine", or "overrated foreign managers"

The last big name ones  that I can remember for guys that were expected to play in the first team 11, when maxi and marcus babbel, both of whom did well for us. Litmanen, klavan et al were bought for the squad

The person that has scored more pl goals than anyone in the last 2 season is Pierre-Emerick_Aubameyang, signed at around 29

Around the pl, at the big clubs, there are as many examples of such players being a success in this bracket as failures, I would guess

[CraigDS]

Surely it’s a mix of age AND injury record which has some concerned?

The latter would have me concerned regardless of age. In the last 7 seasons At Bayern he’s managed 30 league games once - he’s had multiple layoffs for knee and ankle ligament issues over that period.

[Skeeve]

The person that has scored more pl goals than anyone in the last 2 season is Pierre-Emerick_Aubameyang, signed at around 29

Around the pl, at the big clubs, there are as many examples of such players being a success in this bracket as failures, I would guess

One recent example and a feeling that there are others, quality debunking in action there. 

[Fromola]

This seems to be the latest old wives tale doing the rounds at the local bingo

up there with the need for " a british spine", or "overrated foreign managers"

The last big name ones  that I can remember for guys that were expected to play in the first team 11, when maxi and marcus babbel, both of whom did well for us. Litmanen, klavan et al were bought for the squad

The person that has scored more pl goals than anyone in the last 2 season is Pierre-Emerick_Aubameyang, signed at around 29

Around the pl, at the big clubs, there are as many examples of such players being a success in this bracket as failures, I would guess

We do look for value in terms of re-sale value though. An example is Van Persie. Went to United at 29, won them the league with his goals in his first year (justified the transfer) but then he had fitness problems and his legs went and at 30+ there was no re-sale. That wasn't the type of buy United would normally make under the Glazers but Ferguson pushed for it because he wanted the title in his last year. There can always be exceptions to go against the general rule.

Suarez, Torres and Coutinho earned the club a fortune after a few good years due to the ages they were signed at. Not that they were signed to be sold, but it's about value in terms of our business model.

It also means if a player flops or you want to sell him you can get your money back. An example is when Rodgers wanted Ashley Williams back when he was all hyped. He was pushing 30 and Sakho was early 20s and therefore the committee pushed for Sakho. Sakho did at least as well as Williams would have done but although he didn't live up to the billing in the end he was sold for a profit a few years down the line. Williams would have cost similar at the time but would have been worth jack shit 2 or 3 years later.

When you have to generate your own transfer revenue in sales (which we always pretty much have under FSG) you have to buy players who will have the re-sale value for the most part.

[Lynndenberries]

It certainly wouldn't be an FSG/Edwards deal. If we go for him it'll be because Klopp wants him and the club back him because he's earned that, in the way Rodgers probably hadn't when he wanted to sign a 29 year old defender from Swansea for example and was overruled for a committee sanctioned younger defender.

From the perspective of Edwards and FSG, it's a cut price deal for one of the top midfielders in the world, both from the eye test and certainly from an analytics perspective. How often does a player of his ability become available for a fee of £25-30m? We all know his injury record is a huge concern and that's where they will need to determine if he is ultimately worth the risk.

The situation with Ashley Williams surely is different, no? He was at best a pretty average Premier Leader defender valued fairly highly at the time for £12m. We weren't in a position to take that kind of risk on him for any number of reasons.

[Skeeve]

We do look for value in terms of re-sale value though. An example is Van Persie. Went to United at 29, won them the league with his goals in his first year (justified the transfer) but then he had fitness problems and his legs went and at 30+ there was no re-sale. That wasn't the type of buy United would normally make under the Glazers but Ferguson pushed for it because he wanted the title in his last year. There can always be exceptions to go against the general rule.

Even Van Persie isn't a true example either since he was moving from another PL side rather than having to settle into a new league as well as a new club.

[Oskar]

From the perspective of Edwards and FSG, it's a cut price deal for one of the top midfielders in the world, both from the eye test and certainly from an analytics perspective. How often does a player of his ability become available for a fee of £25-30m? We all know his injury record is a huge concern and that's where they will need to determine if he is ultimately worth the risk.

The situation with Ashley Williams surely is different, no? He was at best a pretty average Premier Leader defender valued fairly highly at the time for £12m. We weren't in a position to take that kind of risk on him for any number of reasons.

We wanted to furlough staff a few weeks ago, are we in a position to spend upwards of £30m on, and give a big long-term contract to, Thiago?

[JackWard33]

Even Van Persie isn't a true example either since he was moving from another PL side rather than having to settle into a new league as well as a new club.

I can't imagine how Thiago would struggle to settle into PL football?
I mean he's bossed the best midfields in the world on a regular basis is he going to struggle vs Noble and Rice's legendary press?

[Skeeve]

From the perspective of Edwards and FSG, it's a cut price deal for one of the top midfielders in the world, both from the eye test and certainly from an analytics perspective. How often does a player of his ability become available for a fee of £25-30m? We all know his injury record is a huge concern and that's where they will need to determine if he is ultimately worth the risk.

Funny how somebody who is keen on the deal tries to downplay the costs, the figure most commonly mentioned is 35m (so actually £32m) and Bayern have stated that they aren't interested in selling at those prices anyway, so he's not a cut-price deal as you try to portray him.

[Lynndenberries]

We wanted to furlough staff a few weeks ago, are we in a position to spend upwards of £30m on, and give a big long-term contract to, Thiago?

I would assume it depends on how the deal is structured and what players we think we are able to offload.

[El Lobo]

We wanted to furlough staff a few weeks ago, are we in a position to spend upwards of £30m on, and give a big long-term contract to, Thiago?

The two things have nothing to do with each other

[Lynndenberries]

Funny how somebody who is keen on the deal tries to downplay the costs, the figure most commonly mentioned is 35m (so actually £32m) and Bayern have stated that they aren't interested in selling at those prices anyway, so he's not a cut-price deal as you try to portray him.

I am not trying to downplay the costs, I am going by the reports that have said he is available for €30-35m. If he ends costing more than that, then yeah, the risk probably isn't worth it.

[jillcwhomever]

We tried to sign Lloyd Kelly last summer. We ended up signing... Sepp Van Den Berg.

It's funny if you look back on the transfers we've almost pulled the trigger on - it's questionable whether there's any real systematic pattern.

We tried to sign Ben Chilwell in December 2015. We didn't sign a left back until we signed Robertson a year and a half later.
We tried to sign Thomas Lemar in the summer of 2018. We didn't sign anybody specifically in that type of role when it didn't work out, unless you count Keita.
We tried to sign Nabil Fekir the same summer. Likewise.
We tried to sign Timo Werner a few minutes ago.

I'll be honest, it wouldn't worry me if we didn't sign anyone this season especially with the lack of money coming in. I don't think we are desperate for too many positions, left back as I said before is maybe the most questionable as I think Robbo will need the odd break from time to time. But for the most part he like Trent will be the most likely to be used in most games, if we have the cup competition I would prefer us to use a younger team in those anyway.

[markmywords]

Even Van Persie isn't a true example either since he was moving from another PL side rather than having to settle into a new league as well as a new club.

I don't know other clubs as well as I know LFC and the last big name foreign signings of experienced players expected to play were maxi and marcus babbel and they did well, we have not been burned by lots of expensive older foreign big name failures, unless you can name me some?

I would say there as many successes as failures in this bracket

Most clubs don't go for these types, I guess, only ones I can think of recently are zlatan, then payet at west ham went there at 28/9 got player of the yr in his first season.  30 yr old Teemu pukki has kept hopes alive for Norwich this yr

[skipper757]

Maxi's a good example for us that worked out.  Almost 30, coming to a new league, had an ACL tear too a few years before joining us.  Clearly wasn't at the highest level he had been at when at Atletico but still a really good addition to the side.  His footballing brain outweighed any of the age woes. However, there's a caveat because we didn't spend much to get him.  It was a very good deal at a difficult time for our side.  With the wages someone like Thiago is getting, you'd expect him to perform at a very high level, but he'll have adapting to do.

That being said, it's always interesting to see how Klopp could evolve the side.  During the 2017-18 season, if someone said we'd be CL winners in 2019 and Prem winners in 2020, I don't think anyone would be thinking "yes, our full-backs will combine to get 20+ assists in all comps, no worries."  Werner could've been part of a rotation/long-term front 3 transition but also an opportunity to try different tactics, possibly getting all 4 attackers on at the same time (back to an old 4-2-3-1 maybe?).  Klopp likes versatility in his players, and he and his coaching staff are also open to new ideas over time.  While the focus is on an attacker to help with the front 3 and left-back cover, the message seems to be that given the uncertainty, Liverpool will be looking for opportunities that could come up.  Normally, contact with agents, targets, negotiations, etc are pretty set over time, but given all the uncertainty, could see deals/opportunities pop up.  Would be curious how it all shapes up.  Thiago doesn't seem like he'd be a top target, but if it means we can improve our side by adopting new tactics/ideas, it could be interesting.  Given the number of games we tend to play and the opportunity to pick up domestic cups too, it won't prevent someone like Jones from getting game time any way.  Coaches have done well to give some of the youth chances in a top side, and they can continue to do so whilst having more depth for deep runs in multiple competitions.

Front 3 and LB cover still seems like top priorities though.

[CraigDS]

Not sure Maxi is a good example personally.

We signed him for nothing so the risk was massively less, and he wasn’t really a consistent starter for us so the pressure on his body was less. Also played in a less physically demanding position I’d argue.

[Sangria]

Maxi's a good example for us that worked out.  Almost 30, coming to a new league, had an ACL tear too a few years before joining us.  Clearly wasn't at the highest level he had been at when at Atletico but still a really good addition to the side.  His footballing brain outweighed any of the age woes. However, there's a caveat because we didn't spend much to get him.  It was a very good deal at a difficult time for our side.  With the wages someone like Thiago is getting, you'd expect him to perform at a very high level, but he'll have adapting to do.

That being said, it's always interesting to see how Klopp could evolve the side.  During the 2017-18 season, if someone said we'd be CL winners in 2019 and Prem winners in 2020, I don't think anyone would be thinking "yes, our full-backs will combine to get 20+ assists in all comps, no worries."  Werner could've been part of a rotation/long-term front 3 transition but also an opportunity to try different tactics, possibly getting all 4 attackers on at the same time (back to an old 4-2-3-1 maybe?).  Klopp likes versatility in his players, and he and his coaching staff are also open to new ideas over time.  While the focus is on an attacker to help with the front 3 and left-back cover, the message seems to be that given the uncertainty, Liverpool will be looking for opportunities that could come up.  Normally, contact with agents, targets, negotiations, etc are pretty set over time, but given all the uncertainty, could see deals/opportunities pop up.  Would be curious how it all shapes up.  Thiago doesn't seem like he'd be a top target, but if it means we can improve our side by adopting new tactics/ideas, it could be interesting.  Given the number of games we tend to play and the opportunity to pick up domestic cups too, it won't prevent someone like Jones from getting game time any way.  Coaches have done well to give some of the youth chances in a top side, and they can continue to do so whilst having more depth for deep runs in multiple competitions.

Front 3 and LB cover still seems like top priorities though.

Maxi was a free transfer. His contract was up in a few months, but Atletico agreed to release him for a January transfer.

[Oskar]

Paul Gorst says he's been told the rumours are "total nonsense", that the recruitment staff are bemused by the stories and "those on the inside have privately indicated Thiago is not a player who is coveted by the Liverpool recruitment team". He also likens it to the Nicolas Pepe stories from last year.

Think that's the strongest denial of interest so far.

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/klopp-admires-thiago-liverpool-transfer-18558159

[skipper757]

Ah yep, that's right.  I remember him not costing a fee (as Rafa was hamstrung by H&G), would make sense as he was a free transfer!

So if Bayern are nice enough to let Thiago go on a free, we'll take it.   

But I think that's where the club will see if a potential deal is worth it or not.  Could be a non-starter really given the cost, wages, and role but could also be another way to set up the team.  Would definitely be different from the club's MO on targeting players on the cusp of reaching world-class status or valuable players in less-fancied situations.

Didn't we miss out on Michael Laudrup a couple of times in the 80s?  I remember reading one of the times it was due to a disagreement in contract length.  Klopp looking to make up for that missed transfer.

[Crosby Nick]

There are very few things Rawk excels at mate. 

It’s why you and me feel so at home here.

[BER]

Never made a lick of sense.

[Floydy]

Maxi was a free transfer. His contract was up in a few months, but Atletico agreed to release him for a January transfer.

Maxi actually cost us 1.5 million. Which was reportedly the last 6 months of his contract

[RobbieRedman]