Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20

[mercurial]

Assuming this season will require 94-95 points to win. If so city will need about 78 points from 30 games at 2.6 ppg. That city can achieve but will require another crazy winning run like last year. If we get 3 points in the match against them then they can only afford to drop another 9 points  over the rest of the season. It will be very difficult for them but given their squad, not impossible. We need to maintain about 2.5 ppg to win over the rest of the season.

[latortuga]

I was reading a newspaper article making a comparison between this season and 13/14 when City made an equally dodgy start yet still won the league, 86 points was good enough that season. So I though I'd have a look and compare the graphs after 8 games. What on earth happened to Arsenal and Chelsea that year? Yes the graphs confirm that City had the same start, but we must have come from nowhere to challenge that year, we are effectively 7 points better off after 8 rounds compared to that season.

Arsenal had a really fast start but collapsed 2nd half of the season, at one stage collecting just 1ppg over a 9 game stretch - yuk.  Chelsea were going through the usual turbulence of a 1st season (2nd spell) under Mourinho, similarly dropping away 2nd half.  Our 2nd half was stunning, dropping only 6pts at a rate of 2.68 ppg. 

As someone pointed out the other day, if Suarez wasn't suspended early on we probably would have won the title.

[Hij]

Arsenal had a really fast start but collapsed 2nd half of the season, at one stage collecting just 1ppg over a 9 game stretch - yuk.  Chelsea were going through the usual turbulence of a 1st season (2nd spell) under Mourinho, similarly dropping away 2nd half.  Our 2nd half was stunning, dropping only 6pts at a rate of 2.68 ppg. 

As someone pointed out the other day, if Suarez wasn't suspended early on we probably would have won the title.

We were 2 points off the top after 8 games!?

[Hij]

"The alternative Premier League table that should give Manchester United hope ahead of Liverpool FC clash"

Note: It's not this thread.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/man-utd-vs-liverpool-predictions-17075135

[latortuga]

We were 2 points off the top after 8 games!?

Also, the most City trailed in the 13/14 season was 6pts and had cut that to 1 by the half way mark.  This season feels very different to that one.

[BrandoLFC]

"The alternative Premier League table that should give Manchester United hope ahead of Liverpool FC clash"

Note: It's not this thread.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/man-utd-vs-liverpool-predictions-17075135

They're down to 4th now and will probably keep dropping:

[Anthony]

"The alternative Premier League table that should give Manchester United hope ahead of Liverpool FC clash"

Note: It's not this thread.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/man-utd-vs-liverpool-predictions-17075135

"Solskjaer certainly has written the game off. "

Oops!

[JC the Messiah]

They're down to 4th now and will probably keep dropping:

That alternative table is bullshit. Since when has expected goal difference meant anything over the course of a season? City beat Watford 8-0 and probably had an expected goal difference of 463, 667 goals that game - bit you can only get three points from a single game.

West Ham as well!

Also, City's attendance numbers are fictional.

[Nessy76]

That alternative table is bullshit. Since when has expected goal difference meant anything over the course of a season? City beat Watford 8-0 and probably had an expected goal difference of 463, 667 goals that game - bit you can only get three points from a single game.

West Ham as well!

Also, City's attendance numbers are fictional.

Even actual goal difference is not very reliable as a predictor.

[Hij]

Also, City's attendance numbers are fictional.

[BassTunedToRed]

The other problem with assessing United via xG is they've had so many penalties - they appear to have the fifth best attack if you include them, but fifth worst if you don't.

[Achilles Heel]

Even actual goal difference is not very reliable as a predictor.

Yep.

Indicators based on 27 years of PL:

100% wins - team with most wins has won title in all 27 years (includes 2 seasons when highest number of wins tied in 2012 and 1998)
70% best goal difference - team with best GD has won the title in 19 out of 27 seasons
63%  most goals scored - highest scorers won in 17 out of 27 seasons
40% least goals conceded - team with best defensive record has won the title in 17 out of 27 years

Only 6 seasons when when the champions have had all 4 of most wins, best GD, most goals scored and least goals conceded.

[BrandoLFC]

That alternative table is bullshit. Since when has expected goal difference meant anything over the course of a season? City beat Watford 8-0 and probably had an expected goal difference of 463, 667 goals that game - bit you can only get three points from a single game.

West Ham as well!

Also, City's attendance numbers are fictional.

No stat is the be all to end all, it's just a tool.  And in this case a tool that has proven more accurate of future performance than anything else available.  Does that mean there aren't outliers or one-offs that don't conform?  Of course not.

The other problem with assessing United via xG is they've had so many penalties - they appear to have the fifth best attack if you include them, but fifth worst if you don't.

This is why I like how Caley takes it out of the Sum, fbref is using statsbomb's model though so it's included.  Over time it should even out regardless.

[JC the Messiah]

Well this is their current forecast:

[Blinis]

Arsenal gets the 3rd place in a lot of statistical models I have seen around. We will see.

[JC the Messiah]

It's the United in 5th that seems "optimistic".

[drmick]

Well this is their current forecast:

That's just the current table?

[McSquared]

That's just the current table?

Got some number predictions in the box innit

[drmick]

Got some number predictions in the box innit

Ah, now I see them. Crap way to present that data. And do they get Utd at 5th anyhow?

[Nessy76]

Ah, now I see them. Crap way to present that data. And do they get Utd at 5th anyhow?

Does not look likely, does it? And if it is stat based, they aren't factoring in any January signings or "new manager bounce" that could happen. I am reasonably confident that Manchester United will not finish fifth this season without some radical change at the club.

[BrandoLFC]

Well this is their current forecast:

I don't recognize that website?  Who's forecast is it?  xG doesn't negate the points you've actually won, it just attempts to guess at what points you'll win in the future.  538 has us now favored to win the league as well even though it too rates ManC as better.

[JC the Messiah]

I don't recognize that website?  Who's forecast is it?  xG doesn't negate the points you've actually won, it just attempts to guess at what points you'll win in the future.  538 has us now favored to win the league as well even though it too rates ManC as better.

https://www.infogol.net/leagues/english-premier-league-table-2019-20/138

Select the forecast tab.

It's the one referenced in the link posted above for the MEN.

[MerseysideBrum]

https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/analysis/is-it-liverpool-year-8102019

Infogol have us as going just ahead, same as 538 after the last game week. Not sure why their forecasts don't show this as well. Means nothing anyway, we've been odds on title favourites numerous times before. The trend is nice though.

[Hij]

https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/analysis/is-it-liverpool-year-8102019

Infogol have us as going just ahead, same as 538 after the last game week. Not sure why their forecasts don't show this as well. Means nothing anyway, we've been odds on title favourites numerous times before. The trend is nice though.

Hopefully the general election lines look similar mate

[Blinis]

How bad is this? Any model giving LFC a 20% chance of winning the PL before the first day of the season should be taken with a lot of precautions.

[farawayred]

https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/analysis/is-it-liverpool-year-8102019

Infogol have us as going just ahead, same as 538 after the last game week. Not sure why their forecasts don't show this as well. Means nothing anyway, we've been odds on title favourites numerous times before. The trend is nice though.

Not sure which model is better, but I personally understand the methodology behind this one and I like it a lot. I was cursing last year when they gave City the edge early on, but unfortunately they were spot on...

https://www.euroclubindex.com/league-odds/

[MerseysideBrum]

How bad is this? Any model giving LFC a 20% chance of winning the PL before the first day of the season should be taken with a lot of precautions.

Most bookies had us at 5/2 at the start of the season which isn't far off.

These were last seasons metrics and the reasons for those odds/predictions
                                xG             xGA   xPTS
Manchester City     93.72        25.73        90.64
Liverpool   38          79.46   29.15    83.45

It's the Laporte injury/city defensive issues coinciding with a great run of results for us that have caused these odds/percentage to change.  The odds on us winning our first 8 would of been less than 20%, and the odds of city only winning 5 not far off that either.

[JCB]

Hello guys, been quite busy this year but always love dropping by and checking this thread. I note that people are interested in the relative league positions and with that in mind I updated my 'concertina' graphic from last year. Thought you'd might like a gander.



And because not all leagues are at the same level of games, here's a ppg version for better context.



On a separate note, I've yet to set up the Relegation APLT yet but it's around this time of the season that I start putting it together...the question is, is Dr Mick the only one bothered about this, or do the rest of you want to see it, especially for Man U / Everton.

If so I'll look into throwing it together this weekend.

[royhendo]

How bad is this? Any model giving LFC a 20% chance of winning the PL before the first day of the season should be taken with a lot of precautions.

Going by what Ian Graham said the other day in the Freakonomics podcast this is roughly the same probability model outcome as the club had internally...

DUBNER: Last year, you had a phenomenal year. Won the Champions League. Came in second in the Prem, with enough points to have won in just about any other year. So there is this statistical concept we all know called regression to the mean, which suggests that a particularly good result — or a particularly bad result — is usually followed by a more average result. So considering your season last year, how many trophies do you think Liverpool wins this year?

GRAHAM: Well, I shall give you a straight answer. Just over half. And let me give you the details and you can check, the bookmakers kind of agree with our internal opinion, which is nice. So Premier League, 25 percent. Champions League, maybe 12 to 15 percent. League Cup, 12 percent. FA Cup, 12. So the chance of at least one trophy is greater than 50 percent.

[Ghost Town]

Hello guys, been quite busy this year but always love dropping by and checking this thread. I note that people are interested in the relative league positions and with that in mind I updated my 'concertina' graphic from last year. Thought you'd might like a gander.



And because not all leagues are at the same level of games, here's a ppg version for better context.

This is great. Please keep updating and posting if it is not too much of an inconvenience for you.

[McrRed]

Oh wouldn't it be wonderful if our nearest and dearest detractors managed to feature permanently in the alternative relegation table.

Either way, yes please, from me.

[MerseysideBrum]

https://twitter.com/Freakonomics/status/1185309075719876608?s=19

[KurtVerbose]

This is great. Please keep updating and posting if it is not too much of an inconvenience for you.

+1.

[drmick]

Hello guys, been quite busy this year but always love dropping by and checking this thread. I note that people are interested in the relative league positions and with that in mind I updated my 'concertina' graphic from last year. Thought you'd might like a gander.



And because not all leagues are at the same level of games, here's a ppg version for better context.



On a separate note, I've yet to set up the Relegation APLT yet but it's around this time of the season that I start putting it together...the question is, is Dr Mick the only one bothered about this, or do the rest of you want to see it, especially for Man U / Everton.

If so I'll look into throwing it together this weekend.

Probably says a lot about me, but I'm having great fun trying to decipher those acronyms!

Regarding relegation- for the most part it doesn't differ too much from the real table in terms of position. BUT there is always at least one team who is doing far better in the real table than what the APLT suggests, and usually one of the bottom 3/4 in the real table who are actually not doing that bad in the APLT  (And this is usually borne out by season end). Plus the new manager identifier has been very useful in recent seasons to see who has made a genuine impact.

Whether that is worth all the effort, I'm not sure, but as others have said Everton's case are making things relevant to an LFC audience.

[dimwit]

On a separate note, I've yet to set up the Relegation APLT yet but it's around this time of the season that I start putting it together...the question is, is Dr Mick the only one bothered about this, or do the rest of you want to see it, especially for Man U / Everton.

If so I'll look into throwing it together this weekend.

Are you serious?

Who wouldn't want to see the RAPLT with everton and united in it? 

Hope you have the time to make it, would be appreciated as allways.

[royhendo]

Both were down as draws by par weren't they? Palace away for City, Man City away for us...

...so we lost two points on the APLT graph didn't we?

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Both were down as draws by par weren't they? Palace away for City, Man City away for us...

...so we lost two points on the APLT graph didn't we?

And in the real table

 

[royhendo]

And in the real table

 

The greatness of this analysis is such that for me, this is the real table. The other table is only relevant at the end of the season.

[Nessy76]

Seems like a good place for this...

[johnny74]

My fault. I forgot to do the mockers for this one. I accept full responsibility.