Poll

RAWK and Brexit

No Deal!
65 (8.8%)
Mays Deal!
14 (1.9%)
No Brexit!
539 (72.8%)
Don't Know
10 (1.4%)
Don't Care
15 (2%)
I don't live in the UK
97 (13.1%)

Total Members Voted: 740

Author Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"  (Read 1449363 times)

Offline Linudden

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32840 on: October 30, 2019, 03:07:31 pm »
How can Corbyn stay on after two failed elections? The second one against Boris no less.

Trada and his crew would probably re-elect him if Corbyn refused to resign unless moderates en masse became members to overcome the Momentum entry-ism. Not even Labour being around 20-25 % in the polls and being the sole challenger helped Owen Smith three years ago. So long as no far-left challengers came up, he'd have that lane to himself, whereas the moderates would split between different voters. He'd most likely resign himself if it became a really ugly result but I wouldn't rule out him defying everyone. Back in 2015, word was that right-wingers bragged they were "sleeper cells" within the Labour electorate to prop Corbyn up too. While I don't know how many those were I doubt Labour found all of them.

If the Conservatives have a majority lower than 50, I'm torn in half as of whether Corbyn stays or Corbyn goes.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 03:15:54 pm by Linudden »
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Offline TepidT2O

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32841 on: October 30, 2019, 03:18:02 pm »
Trada and his crew would probably re-elect him if Corbyn refused to resign unless moderates en masse became members to overcome the Momentum entry-ism. Not even Labour being around 20-25 % in the polls and being the sole challenger helped Owen Smith three years ago. So long as no far-left challengers came up, he'd have that lane to himself, whereas the moderates would split between different voters. He'd most likely resign himself if it became a really ugly result but I wouldn't rule out him defying everyone.
Post Corbyn momentum Marxism would be interesting.

Corbyn is a somewhat mythical figure in the politics of the hard left.  Words and actions are dedicated to him, he is adored and he is vaunted.
I’ve come to conclusion that this idolatry  of Corbyn is what holds to hard left together.

He himself is crap.  He’s not very bright, he didn’t think on his feet and he’s bullied by others in the party (both hard left and other factions too). He’s a very good protestor but he really never had any plan for how to win power or what to do if he won power.  And as such he’s a protestor rather than a politician. And whilst it’s greta to knock ‘politics’ it’s the art of cutting deals, drawing people too you and winning an argument (May was also thoroughly crap at this.)

But once this be-capped Marxist PVA Dullard has gone, what will the factions of the left do?  What will there to stop the PFJ from a bitter war with the JPF? The adhesion of ‘Jeremy’ will be gone.

Now this is all premature. I will drink my own urine of Corbyn wins a majority, but it’s not ridiculous to suggest that a Lib, left, SNP alliance could seize power (until it collapsed) for at least a short time......

Tory MPs are far from happy about the election as there is great uncertainty.

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“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
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Offline Linudden

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32842 on: October 30, 2019, 03:22:07 pm »
Now this is all premature. I will drink my own urine of Corbyn wins a majority, but it’s not ridiculous to suggest that a Lib, left, SNP alliance could seize power (until it collapsed) for at least a short time......

For that to happen, first of all he needs to match the 2017 result in terms of MP's, hope the SNP cleans the house in Scotland like 2015 and that the DUP get demolished in Northern Ireland.

Lots of ifs there. For Labour to become the party with the most MP's seems like a pipe dream for him at this moment in time. I find anything from Con 10 short of majority, getting there by the DUP, to Con +100 to be reasonable predictions. That's the range I can see this landing in.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 03:23:56 pm by Linudden »
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Offline TepidT2O

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32843 on: October 30, 2019, 03:33:10 pm »
And what is remarkable....

Truly truly remarkable is that the antisemitism has been swept away like a bit of dust under the sofa.  The Jews? Fuck ‘em eh? 

People not even worrying about it when considering voting labour.  I suppose I don’t have to, I will only ever get my tory MP out by voting Lib Dem. 
But if it were a labour MP who had a chance, I’d have terrible doubts about voting for them.... Because if I just ignore the antisemitism, what might be next on their list?
“Happiness can be found in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.”
“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
W

Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32844 on: October 30, 2019, 03:50:03 pm »
And what is remarkable....

Truly truly remarkable is that the antisemitism has been swept away like a bit of dust under the sofa.  The Jews? Fuck ‘em eh? 

People not even worrying about it when considering voting labour.  I suppose I don’t have to, I will only ever get my tory MP out by voting Lib Dem. 
But if it were a labour MP who had a chance, I’d have terrible doubts about voting for them.... Because if I just ignore the antisemitism, what might be next on their list?
I'll be voting Labour as the only realistic alternative is the Brexit Party. They will be the anti- Labour candidate and the candidate is an absolute arsewipe. He has the kind of face you would gladly slap with a rotting fish
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32845 on: October 30, 2019, 03:52:09 pm »
How can Corbyn stay on after two failed elections? The second one against Boris no less.

The only reason I hold out faint hope of a further swing is the possibility of returning students in time for a December 12th vote, and possibly the weather holding off older voters.  On the flip side Labour enjoyed an extra 8000 votes from 2015 to 17 from what I suspect are Tory/Lib Dem remain voters... that's likely to go down the pan now.

I'll decide closer to voting day.

if he loses this time, he'll be gone, the only real upside to a defeat really. Not a chance he'll be able to stay on as leader, Mr would you think he'd want to either
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


If anyone is going to put a few fingers deep into my arse it's going to be me.

Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32846 on: October 30, 2019, 03:54:54 pm »
I'm not saying you shouldn't vote tactically I'm just laughing at the notion Labour is a party for remain.

I'd vote Lib Dems if I could but I'll be voting Labour despite it being pointless to do so in my constituency which has been a Tory safe seat since the 20's .


Well the only realistic chance of a People's vote is a Labour win, with the greatest will in the world, the Lib Dems will not finish as the largest party.
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


If anyone is going to put a few fingers deep into my arse it's going to be me.

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32847 on: October 30, 2019, 03:55:39 pm »
Corbyn wanting Arsenal to beat us tonight is final nail in his coffin for me.
Thank Fowler we're not getting Caulker

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32848 on: October 30, 2019, 03:57:55 pm »
I voted tactically for the Lib Dems last time and Labour flew past them in second place. This time out I will more than likely be voting Labour, despite it being a safe Tory seat (the last few times anyway).

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32849 on: October 30, 2019, 03:59:07 pm »
Another one jumping before being pushed. I don't think she was getting the Tory whip back regardless.

I don't think I've ever seen so many MPs standing down going into an Election. I think it's over 50 and counting so far across all parties.

Anna Soubry standing in Brexstowe, pretty much guarantees a Labour win you'd think. Majority of around 500, Tories, BXP, Independent for Change all going up against Labour. If the Labour vote holds up reasonably well and she takes Tory remainers then it really should be an easy Labour win
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32850 on: October 30, 2019, 04:04:24 pm »
People on this thread saying vote Labour if you're a remainer :lmao :lmao

Loyalty is making some blind.

Up the Dems.
If the Lib Dems hadn't fucked the country over during the Coalition government, it's unlikely that the Tories would have had a majority in 2015 and the referendum would not have happened.

They got blamed for supporting Tory austerity measures and Tuition fees, allowed for the introduction of the Bedroom Tax, Universal Credit etc etc.

If your conscious can handle that then go grab a bit of the Lib Dems again. Personally I would trust them as far as I could spew them
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32851 on: October 30, 2019, 04:08:53 pm »
Not to downplay Brexit, it's a big issue, but it's still just one issue in this election. Also I think Brexit is inevitable now so you're basically voting for a Labour Brexit or a Tory one.

Not a hard choice is it?

And if anyone is stupid enough to be duped by the Lib Dems again then quite frankly you can fuck off. Should only be voted for in Lid Dem/Tory marginals and even then I'd feel sick about having to do it. They'll go with the Tories again if the chance presents itself.

I agree to a certain extent, where we differ is over Brexit. The only way Brexit happens is if the Tories get a majority or a coalition of MPs that would support Brexit.

If Labour were to win, Corbyn would try to renegotiate and I suspect it will be in the manifesto that any deal will be resolved by another referendum. With his deal up against Remain at minimum, possibly a three way choice
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


If anyone is going to put a few fingers deep into my arse it's going to be me.

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32852 on: October 30, 2019, 04:09:48 pm »
I still tend to think of this as being remain v Brexit than Tory v labour.

Me too. And I'll need persuading that the Labour Party agree with me before I give them my vote.

If, however, Corbyn blathers on about "bringing the country together" and "seeing beyond Brexit to the real issues" my ballot paper will either be spoilt or marked up for a candidate who does think the election is about Remain v Brexit. 
"If you want the world to love you don't discuss Middle Eastern politics" Saul Bellow.

Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32853 on: October 30, 2019, 04:15:37 pm »
And he would still lose. There's more chance of Man Utd winning the league this year than Corbyn winning this election.
I think you are wrong, the current pilling is not dissimilar to the polling at the start of the 2017 campaign, some polls are showing Tory leads as low as 4% which puts us in even more hung parliament territory.

I am no great lover of Corbyn and it is primarily his fault why Labour are behind in the polls but Johnson is a proven liar, the opposition must peddle that line constantly in their election ads. It should be all over Social Media, billboards, PEBs etc.

Johnson has the lead, yes but there are too many variables to say he is certain to win. Corbyn could win, he has a good chance, I think, of being the largest party. Is that a good thing, not necessarily as I think he would be a terrible PM but what he does have going for him is that he is not Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Offline Linudden

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32854 on: October 30, 2019, 04:17:31 pm »
Anna Soubry standing in Brexstowe, pretty much guarantees a Labour win you'd think. Majority of around 500, Tories, BXP, Independent for Change all going up against Labour. If the Labour vote holds up reasonably well and she takes Tory remainers then it really should be an easy Labour win

I think she'll contribute to splitting the Remain vote rather than the local Tory vote to be honest. It's a marginal Leave constituency after all and those will be furious with what she's been doing after having stood on the Tory manifesto. Doubt she'll get many votes at all, period. Would-be LibDem voters maybe.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32855 on: October 30, 2019, 04:34:29 pm »
If the Lib Dems hadn't fucked the country over during the Coalition government, it's unlikely that the Tories would have had a majority in 2015 and the referendum would not have happened.

They got blamed for supporting Tory austerity measures and Tuition fees, allowed for the introduction of the Bedroom Tax, Universal Credit etc etc.

If your conscious can handle that then go grab a bit of the Lib Dems again. Personally I would trust them as far as I could spew them

You can't lay Brexit on the Liberal Democrats when the Labour party fielded the wrong Miliband in 2015. But no, the unions and co wanted the obviously unelectable Edd and we got a comfortable Tory majority, smart.

Plenty of sliding doors moments lead us to where we are, I'm not interested in things that happened a decade ago - I'm looking at the parties now.
:D

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32856 on: October 30, 2019, 05:58:50 pm »
Labour voted against the Tories everytime over Brexit apart from once.



No 1 has the wrong date (the vote of no confidence was on the 16th)

No 2 technically wasn't a vote on whether to have a 2nd referendum or not. It was basically a vote on whether to have indicative votes, one of which would be on a "public vote on a deal or a proposition that has commanded the support of the majority of the House of Commons"

Quote
“requires ministers to secure sufficient time for the UK Parliament to consider and vote on options to prevent the UK leaving the EU without a ratified Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, and that those options should include:

(i) Negotiating changes to the draft Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration so as to secure a permanent customs union with the EU, a strong relationship with the single market underpinned by shared institutions and obligations, and dynamic alignment on rights and standards, in order to command a majority in the House of Commons;

(ii) Legislating to hold a public vote on a deal or a proposition that has commanded the support of the majority of the House of Commons.”.—(Jeremy Corbyn.)

http://bit.ly/2UtRPwx (links to Hansard)

The Kyle-Wilson amendment was never put forward for a vote during either of the two meaningful votes on May's deal in March, so "failed" doesn't mean it was voted down. What did happen in March was that Labour abstained on an amendment calling for a 2nd referendum.

Quote
“instructs the Prime Minister to request an extension to the Article 50 period at the European Council in March 2019 sufficient for the purposes of legislating for and conducting a public vote in which the people of the United Kingdom may give their consent for either leaving the European Union on terms to be determined by Parliament or retaining the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union.”.—(Dr Wollaston.)

http://bit.ly/2FfRDwl (links to Hansard)

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/629?byMember=false#notrecorded

Corbyn whipping for a "Norway style" Brexit contradicted the part of the 2017 Labour manifesto which said that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union"

If Labour's "own version of a soft Brexit" was rejected by Parliament 4 times, then why is it considered a more "credible Leave option" than May's deal which was only rejected 3 times, or Johnson's which passed its 2nd reading?

From the 1st round of indicative votes, and I presume one of the aforementioned 4 occasions on which Labour's "own version of a soft Brexit" was rejected

Quote
That this House requires Ministers to; (a) negotiate changes to the draft Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration so as to secure; (i) a permanent customs union with the EU; (ii) close alignment with the single market underpinned by shared institutions and obligations;(iii) dynamic alignment on rights and protections;(iv) commitments on participation in EU agencies and funding programmes, including in areas such as the environment, education, and industrial regulation;(v) agreement on the detail of future security arrangements, including access to the European Arrest Warrant and vital shared databases; and(b) introduce primary legislation to give statutory status to the objectives set out in paragraph (a).—(Jeremy Corbyn.)

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-03-27/division/260EF549-0319-43B1-A7C7-E0653AFCA8C5/EUWithdrawalAndFutureRelationshipVotes?outputType=Party

This is from this year's conference



https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1175352839339687936

I don't see the difference between what Labour currently plan to negotiate with the EU and its proposals that were rejected back in March.

With regards to No 9, if Corbyn wasn't willing to support a "Tory Brexit" then why did he allegedly back the Kyle-Wilson amendment? For the Kyle-Wilson amendment to work, Labour would have had to vote for May's deal. And if May had abandoned a "Tory Brexit" in favour of a deal closer to Labour's "own version of a soft Brexit", would Labour have voted for that without supporting a confirmatory referendum on it?
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 06:01:18 pm by ShakaHislop »

Offline redmark

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32857 on: October 30, 2019, 06:04:32 pm »
I think you are wrong, the current pilling is not dissimilar to the polling at the start of the 2017 campaign, some polls are showing Tory leads as low as 4% which puts us in even more hung parliament territory.

I am no great lover of Corbyn and it is primarily his fault why Labour are behind in the polls but Johnson is a proven liar, the opposition must peddle that line constantly in their election ads. It should be all over Social Media, billboards, PEBs etc.

Johnson has the lead, yes but there are too many variables to say he is certain to win. Corbyn could win, he has a good chance, I think, of being the largest party. Is that a good thing, not necessarily as I think he would be a terrible PM but what he does have going for him is that he is not Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson
The standing of the parties is similar. But there are significant differences to 2017.

For non-political-geeks, Corbyn was an unknown in 2017 and many people liked his campaigning style, the promise of a 'different kind of politics', etc. That doesn't work twice. For voters interested in Brexit (either side), Labour's triangulation - while possibly holding the PLP together between polar extremes - has been a nightmare to articulate. It's finally become (somewhat) simpler, but is still more complex than 'Get Brexit Done' or 'Remain/Revoke'. For political geeks and anyone on twitter who isn't an outrider, antisemitism is a growing problem (and one that resonates with a wider group of people than old photos of JC with Gerry Adams).

Labour's rise in the polls in 2017 was a product of a decent manifesto and a surprisingly effective campaign by the leader. I can't see the latter being repeated - and the manifesto could be the best in history, but historically vast swathes of the electorate now regard all politicians simply as liars. A new (effective) leader (untainted by AS and with some credible proposals to combat it) could close the gap. I don't see how Corbyn can, when he's offended most of the prospective blocs of support.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32858 on: October 30, 2019, 06:08:36 pm »
Personally I would trust them as far as I could spew them

I'm the same with Corbyn but I'm sure your conscious can cope with the anti-semitism he has allowed in the party and his version of Brexit (he doesnt want to remain) then so be it. I cant and I wont. I'll be voting for a Remain party.

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32859 on: October 30, 2019, 06:14:59 pm »
I keep seeing anti-Semitism as an issue and, without derailing the thread or wishing to get it locked, I've no idea what this refers to other than a supposed anti-israeli-hegemonic stance. Is there more to it than this? Does it outweigh the very clear and definite racism in the other parties?

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32860 on: October 30, 2019, 06:16:38 pm »
The brexit party are considering pulling out of hundreds of seats to give the tories a free hit.


This would of course pretty much give the tories the next five years in government.  It would be a game changer
“Happiness can be found in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.”
“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
W

Offline TepidT2O

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32861 on: October 30, 2019, 06:17:29 pm »
I keep seeing anti-Semitism as an issue and, without derailing the thread or wishing to get it locked, I've no idea what this refers to other than a supposed anti-israeli-hegemonic stance. Is there more to it than this? Does it outweigh the very clear and definite racism in the other parties?
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“Happiness can be found in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.”
“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
W

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32862 on: October 30, 2019, 06:20:52 pm »
The brexit party are considering pulling out of hundreds of seats to give the tories a free hit.


This would of course pretty much give the tories the next five years in government.  It would be a game changer


If accurate obviously the assumption is that Johnson (erg) and Frottage have come to an arrangement.  Far right incoming

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32863 on: October 30, 2019, 06:22:38 pm »
If accurate obviously the assumption is that Johnson (erg) and Frottage have come to an arrangement.  Far right incoming
Maybe.. but it wouldn’t be very binding.  They could hardly change their mind after the election.

My guess is that Farrage can’t really be arsed
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32864 on: October 30, 2019, 06:43:15 pm »
I keep seeing anti-Semitism as an issue and, without derailing the thread or wishing to get it locked, I've no idea what this refers to other than a supposed anti-israeli-hegemonic stance. Is there more to it than this? Does it outweigh the very clear and definite racism in the other parties?

Are you aware of the EHRC investigation?

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32865 on: October 30, 2019, 06:45:28 pm »
Maybe.. but it wouldn’t be very binding.  They could hardly change their mind after the election.

My guess is that Farrage can’t really be arsed

Frottage is all bluster.  He's got what him and all his mates wanted.  He doesn't need to run against Johnson's Tories in the GE.  They're practically campaigning for the same thing.

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32866 on: October 30, 2019, 07:00:57 pm »
Marvellous.

Whatabbouttery at its finest

There are worse examples of whataboutery. His question of the difference between antisemitism and anti-Zionism is a valid one to some extent. But most importantly there are genuine dark right-wing forces at play with regards how the antisemitism is being reported.

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32867 on: October 30, 2019, 10:31:56 pm »
Maybe.. but it wouldn’t be very binding.  They could hardly change their mind after the election.

My guess is that Farrage can’t really be arsed
My guess is that in return Frottage wants certain amendments to the withdrawal bill.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32868 on: October 30, 2019, 10:38:13 pm »
Labour's rise in the polls in 2017 was a product of a decent manifesto and a surprisingly effective campaign by the leader. I can't see the latter being repeated - and the manifesto could be the best in history, but historically vast swathes of the electorate now regard all politicians simply as liars. A new (effective) leader (untainted by AS and with some credible proposals to combat it) could close the gap. I don't see how Corbyn can, when he's offended most of the prospective blocs of support.
I don't think we should over egg the campaign ran by Corbyn.  Teresa May ran perhaps the worst campaign I can ever remember (arguably even worse than Gordon Brown) and yet still picked up 55 more seats than Corbyn.  I appreciate the popular vote was much closer than that but if he couldn't topple "weak and wobbly" May then he's hardly a master campaigner.

Having said all that, nothing would please me more than a repeat performance of Labour over-achieving.  Anything but a Tory majority.

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32869 on: October 30, 2019, 10:56:24 pm »
The mass exodus of Conservative MP's, ministers and ex-ministers may become an election issue in itself. The swivel-eyed tendency will take on a momentum of it's own - I'm sure the party will soon be unrecognisably nastier than it has ever(!) been in living memory (and yes, I lived through the Thatcher years - the 'wets' have all gone). Johnson is a dangerous chancer, but what really worries me more than anything, is who will be the next leader.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32870 on: October 30, 2019, 11:30:47 pm »
The mass exodus of Conservative MP's, ministers and ex-ministers may become an election issue in itself. The swivel-eyed tendency will take on a momentum of it's own - I'm sure the party will soon be unrecognisably nastier than it has ever(!) been in living memory (and yes, I lived through the Thatcher years - the 'wets' have all gone). Johnson is a dangerous chancer, but what really worries me more than anything, is who will be the next leader.
Yep,this is my worry as well. the Tory MPs who actually stood up to the ERG nutters have now had enough, they will be replaced by yes men who will shout and scream support for whatever the Tory leader argues, the countries future comes 2nd but it's not just that,we are also loosing many skilled intelligent brave MPs from both parties. if people thought Parliament was full of charlatans then wait till they see the next Parliament. they will face far less scrutiny as Parliaments talent dwindles.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32871 on: October 30, 2019, 11:39:45 pm »
The mass exodus of Conservative MP's, ministers and ex-ministers may become an election issue in itself. The swivel-eyed tendency will take on a momentum of it's own - I'm sure the party will soon be unrecognisably nastier than it has ever(!) been in living memory (and yes, I lived through the Thatcher years - the 'wets' have all gone). Johnson is a dangerous chancer, but what really worries me more than anything, is who will be the next leader.

It’s the unknown that concerns. Tory govt is more unrecognisable by the day even compared to may’s mob.  Most will be aware of the likes of Francois et al from car crash interviews on tv news bulletins.  There may be quite a few seemingly quieter individuals in the background for now.  Therein lies the danger should they grab power.

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32872 on: October 30, 2019, 11:43:20 pm »
I keep seeing anti-Semitism as an issue and, without derailing the thread or wishing to get it locked, I've no idea what this refers to other than a supposed anti-israeli-hegemonic stance. Is there more to it than this? Does it outweigh the very clear and definite racism in the other parties?
If it doesn't would it be ok?

Jeezus.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32873 on: October 30, 2019, 11:57:57 pm »
I don't think we should over egg the campaign ran by Corbyn.  Teresa May ran perhaps the worst campaign I can ever remember (arguably even worse than Gordon Brown) and yet still picked up 55 more seats than Corbyn.  I appreciate the popular vote was much closer than that but if he couldn't topple "weak and wobbly" May then he's hardly a master campaigner.

Having said all that, nothing would please me more than a repeat performance of Labour over-achieving.  Anything but a Tory majority.
Labour was widely expected, on here and beyond, to go into electoral oblivion for at least the next couple of electoral cycles or even in some cases, a generation - and that was before Corbyn had even been selected! Then Corbyn came along. That was why she went for a snap election in the second place, (in the first place she wasn't going to have a snap election).

The sight of Corbyn distributing loaves and fishes to literally thousands of (literally) joyous adherents, night after night after night, contrasted sharply with the Tory battle bus and it's three man audience of easily recognisable paid stooges, and the effect on the single watt TV audience shocked everyone.

It's weird (and maybe the powder is now damp), but it shouldn't be underestimated. Never overestimate the single watt TV audience.

Maybe he understands this stuff better than us politics dilettantes.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32874 on: October 30, 2019, 11:59:53 pm »
Anna Soubry standing in Brexstowe, pretty much guarantees a Labour win you'd think. Majority of around 500, Tories, BXP, Independent for Change all going up against Labour. If the Labour vote holds up reasonably well and she takes Tory remainers then it really should be an easy Labour win

It’s a possible target seat for sure, however Brexstowe voted leave and if I’m not mistaken backed it up
with a Brexit Party vote in the Euro elections. Every chance that it remains in Tory hands.

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32875 on: October 31, 2019, 12:35:16 am »
Yep,this is my worry as well. the Tory MPs who actually stood up to the ERG nutters have now had enough, they will be replaced by yes men who will shout and scream support for whatever the Tory leader argues, the countries future comes 2nd but it's not just that,we are also loosing many skilled intelligent brave MPs from both parties. if people thought Parliament was full of charlatans then wait till they see the next Parliament. they will face far less scrutiny as Parliaments talent dwindles.

Who  do you fancy as their next leader then Oldie, a second bite for IDS, Priti Patel, Andrew Rosindell, (outside bet on Yaxley-Lennon), or my personal favourite Francois - mind you that's just for comedy value.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32876 on: October 31, 2019, 01:04:04 am »
Who  do you fancy as their next leader then Oldie, a second bite for IDS, Priti Patel, Andrew Rosindell, (outside bet on Yaxley-Lennon), or my personal favourite Francois - mind you that's just for comedy value.
:) I haven't got a good track record when it comes to predicting who will be the next Tory leader. in fact it's the kiss of death for them  :)
Had a bet on Hammond a couple of years ago and he's finished, convinced Amber Rudd would take over from May and lost a few bob on her as well and she's pis... off as well  :)

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32877 on: October 31, 2019, 01:05:05 am »
I'm the same with Corbyn but I'm sure your conscious can cope with the anti-semitism he has allowed in the party and his version of Brexit (he doesnt want to remain) then so be it. I cant and I wont. I'll be voting for a Remain party.
I don't like Corbyn particularly, but I would much rather have a Labour government than a government that contains the likes of Jo Swinson who was at the very heart of the disgusting coalition government of 2010.

In any case, the Liberals have no chance in my constituency.

Labour have a huge majority but could in theory be threatened by Frottage's lot. I'll take Corbyn's Labour over Frottage any day of the week
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32878 on: October 31, 2019, 01:06:33 am »
Tactical voting link, which will tell you the best party to vote for to get an anti-Brexit majority in the Commons

https://www.getvoting.org/
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #32879 on: October 31, 2019, 01:12:21 am »
The standing of the parties is similar. But there are significant differences to 2017.

For non-political-geeks, Corbyn was an unknown in 2017 and many people liked his campaigning style, the promise of a 'different kind of politics', etc. That doesn't work twice. For voters interested in Brexit (either side), Labour's triangulation - while possibly holding the PLP together between polar extremes - has been a nightmare to articulate. It's finally become (somewhat) simpler, but is still more complex than 'Get Brexit Done' or 'Remain/Revoke'. For political geeks and anyone on twitter who isn't an outrider, antisemitism is a growing problem (and one that resonates with a wider group of people than old photos of JC with Gerry Adams).

Labour's rise in the polls in 2017 was a product of a decent manifesto and a surprisingly effective campaign by the leader. I can't see the latter being repeated - and the manifesto could be the best in history, but historically vast swathes of the electorate now regard all politicians simply as liars. A new (effective) leader (untainted by AS and with some credible proposals to combat it) could close the gap. I don't see how Corbyn can, when he's offended most of the prospective blocs of support.
well we shall see, I think the election result will be much closer than many currently think it will be

34-26-19 tonight Tory-Lab-Lib with BXP on 12

I seriously doubt if those figures are repeated at the election that we would see a Tory majority.

Plaid Cymru, Green and Liberals are talking about a progressive Remain Alliance and not actually standing candidates against Labour candidates who are pro-Remain.

This will be an election that will be decided on tactical voting. Even if the Tories win a large percentage of votes, voting tactically can stop them winning and kill Johnson's deal stone dead
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


If anyone is going to put a few fingers deep into my arse it's going to be me.