Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Perhaps special ops used those laser guidance pointers that could enable Ukrainian aircraft to launch their missiles from way outside their usual effective range?

No Ukrainian aircraft are known to be able to carry precision guided missiles, or have western hard points installed on their aircraft. However, ground launched missiles are very possible, though again at this point there is no clarification.

[thaddeus]

Ukraine round-up: Is Russia running out of troops?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62496905

I had assumed Russia were already running conscription.  It sounds like they're not but, if they do begin to run out of soldiers, they presumably will.

Also Ukraine stopped any 18-60 males leaving Ukraine when the war started.  Whether they're signed up to the armed forces or not they're there and could be conscripted also if it came to it.

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

I had assumed Russia were already running conscription.  It sounds like they're not but, if they do begin to run out of soldiers, they presumably will.

Also Ukraine stopped any 18-60 males leaving Ukraine when the war started.  Whether they're signed up to the armed forces or not they're there and could be conscripted also if it came to it.

The Ukrainians have already started general mobilisation since March, the Russians haven’t. If they did, they may risk starting regional revolts within the Federation. A sizeable part of the Russian population support the war, but it doesn’t mean they want to fight in it. In fact, it looks like even if one was conscripted in Russia, there seems to be a myriad of legal avenues for them to refuse service without real repercussions.

[Sangria]

I had assumed Russia were already running conscription.  It sounds like they're not but, if they do begin to run out of soldiers, they presumably will.

Also Ukraine stopped any 18-60 males leaving Ukraine when the war started.  Whether they're signed up to the armed forces or not they're there and could be conscripted also if it came to it.

Russia aren't going to run out of bodies. The question is whether they can recruit more bodies without political ramifications. That's why they're looking to provincials and brown and yellow people to provide these new bodies, rather than the pampered Europeans.

[Red Beret]

No Ukrainian aircraft are known to be able to carry precision guided missiles, or have western hard points installed on their aircraft. However, ground launched missiles are very possible, though again at this point there is no clarification.

Thanks.  I'm aware that the missiles would have their own guidance system. I was just speculating that special ops on the ground might increase the effective range of the weapon, or allow the fighter jets to launch them from further away, to safeguard the aircraft and pilots. I don't know what the effective range of the missiles are, but if they came from aircraft then it would put a constraint on what that is.

As you said, it could have been a 100% ground based attack, but if Ukrainian forces were allowed to get close enough to fire even hand held missiles, then there's no angle that reflects well on Russian discipline, security or logistical practises.

[Indomitable_Carp]

The Ukrainians have already started general mobilisation since March, the Russians haven’t. If they did, they may risk starting regional revolts within the Federation. A sizeable part of the Russian population support the war, but it doesn’t mean they want to fight in it. In fact, it looks like even if one was conscripted in Russia, there seems to be a myriad of legal avenues for them to refuse service without real repercussions.

It is their tried and tested method. It was much the same in the Chechen Wars in terms of recruiting their regional ethnic minority groups to do their dirty work. In the First Chechen War some of Russians Federal Ethnic Republics outright refused central government demands to implement conscription. 

Whether that was the same with the Soviets in Afghanistan I am not sure (I am sure someone here can enlighten us), but it wouldn´t surprise me if Communist Brotherhood still took second place to not recruiting Russian in the Western provinces and big cities even then.

Russia aren't going to run out of bodies. The question is whether they can recruit more bodies without political ramifications. That's why they're looking to provincials and brown and yellow people to provide these new bodies, rather than the pampered Europeans.

Exactly. It is quite hard to continue selling the war to the people of Moscow and St. Petersburg as not actually a war but a "special operation" when they are being drafted in to fight.

Which is also what the makes Ukrainian attack in full view of sunbathing tourists in Crimea even more of a propaganda coup.

[Libertine]

Another great video by Ukraine MoD:

@DefenceU
Unless they want an unpleasantly hot summer break, we advise our valued russian guests not to visit Ukrainian Crimea.

Because no amount of sunscreen will protect them from the hazardous effects of smoking in unauthorised areas.
🎶Bananarama

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557621932429819907

[Red Beret]

Ukraine are trolling geniuses.

It's distasteful, but those holidaying in Crimea need to realise they're on the edge of a warzone.  Anything that brings the war home to the Russian people can (perhaps) leverage further pressure on the Russian government.

[Red-Soldier]

Russian oil production falls less than 3% as sanctions have ‘limited’ effect

In July production was only 310,000 barrels a day below prewar levels, IEA finds

Russian oil production has fallen by less than 3% since the invasion of Ukraine, with a swathe of western energy sanctions having only a “limited” effect, the International Energy Agency has found.

In its latest monthly oil report, the IEA said Russia’s oil production in July was 310,000 barrels a day below prewar levels, while total oil exports were down by about 580,000 barrels a day.

Moscow’s exports of crude and oil products to Europe, the US, Japan and Korea had fallen by nearly 2.2m barrels a day since its invasion in February, but the IEA said the rerouting of flows to India, China, Turkey and others, along with “seasonally higher Russian domestic demand, has mitigated upstream losses”.

Its report estimates that Russia generated $19bn (£16bn) in oil export revenues last month, and $21bn in June. It said: “The outlook for world oil supply has been revised upward, with more limited declines in Russian supply than previously forecast.”

In June, China overtook the EU as the biggest importer of Russian crude.

However, the IEA said the EU embargo on Russian crude and product imports, which comes into full effect in February 2023, would result in “further declines” as about 1m barrels a day of products and 1.3m barrels a day of crude “would have to find new homes”.

Russia is expected to cut down on production after the bloc’s sanctions kick in, leading to oil giants including Saudi Arabia benefiting from the rise in European oil demand, the IEA said.

Meanwhile, with natural gas and electricity prices soaring, “incentivising gas-to-oil switching in some countries”, the IEA has raised its estimates for 2022 global oil demand growth by 380,000 barrels a day, to 2.1m barrels a day.

The global heatwave has also seen an increased oil burn in power generation, especially in Europe and the Middle East but also across Asia.

The report added: “EU members have committed to reducing their demand for gas by 15% from August 2022 to March 2023. We estimate that this will increase oil consumption by roughly 300,000 barrels a day for the next six quarters.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/11/russia-oil-production-sanctions-limited-effect-ukraine-war

[thaddeus]

Russian oil production falls less than 3% as sanctions have ‘limited’ effect

In July production was only 310,000 barrels a day below prewar levels, IEA finds

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/11/russia-oil-production-sanctions-limited-effect-ukraine-war

The Guardian are keen on these sorts of articles recently.  Russia was always going to find a market for its fossil fuels as the likes of China and India weren't going to miss the chance of a bargain.  I doubt this is a surprise to anyone.

The higher global prices will have likely offset the difference to some extent but Russia aren't selling oil to China and India at the same price as they would be selling to the EU.  Crude oil prices have also been dropping for the past month and are back below $100/barrel having been as high as $120/barrel.

Besides, the west waging a proxy with war Russia whilst continuing to directly fund the Russian war effort through the same levels of trade would have been ridiculous.  The sanctions are much broader and largely effective, I'm sure to the frustration of many Guardianistas.

[Byrnee]

The Guardian are keen on these sorts of articles recently.  Russia was always going to find a market for its fossil fuels as the likes of China and India weren't going to miss the chance of a bargain.  I doubt this is a surprise to anyone.

The higher global prices will have likely offset the difference to some extent but Russia aren't selling oil to China and India at the same price as they would be selling to the EU.  Crude oil prices have also been dropping for the past month and are back below $100/barrel having been as high as $120/barrel.

Besides, the west waging a proxy with war Russia whilst continuing to directly fund the Russian war effort through the same levels of trade would have been ridiculous.  The sanctions are much broader and largely effective, I'm sure to the frustration of many Guardianistas.

Yeah they drive me nuts with this stuff. During Covid, early days around May 2020 they had an article warning that there may never be a Covid Vaccine. I mean if that was in the Mail, we'd call it what it is - scaremongering. There was no point to that and this stuff distracts from and I think diminishes the (surprising) spped of global co-operation to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia.

I could go into their coverage of the Depp / Heard trial as well as that frankly bordered on complete fiction. The sort of bias this stuff produces turns people away. I don't care that the right-wing media lie and obscufate and propagandise - I expect it of them. But when the Guardian starts to act similarly dishonestly - at the very least leaving out massive amounts of context - it's equally stupid and will turn people away from the other, sterling journalism they do. 

 

[Yorkykopite]

Finland has reduced Russian travel visas by 90 per cent while Estonia begins a mass removal of Soviet monuments:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/16/estonia-removes-soviet-era-tank-monument-amid-russia-tensions-narva

I must admit surprise at how many Soviet monuments exist in Estonia. I know that totalitarian regimes love to throw up out-size monuments glorifying the Party and the State (same thing) - especially in other people's countries - but I imagined Estonia would have removed most of these symbols of Russian Imperialism many years ago.

It makes you wonder though. Since 1989 there have probably been hundreds of thousands of statues of Lenin and Stalin which have been removed or destroyed. Do these two  tyrants hold the world record?

[thaddeus]

Finland has reduced Russian travel visas by 90 per cent while Estonia begins a mass removal of Soviet monuments:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/16/estonia-removes-soviet-era-tank-monument-amid-russia-tensions-narva

I must admit surprise at how many Soviet monuments exist in Estonia. I know that totalitarian regimes love to throw up out-size monuments glorifying the Party and the State (same thing) - especially in other people's countries - but I imagined Estonia would have removed most of these symbols of Russian Imperialism many years ago.

It makes you wonder though. Since 1989 there have probably been hundreds of thousands of statues of Lenin and Stalin which have been removed or destroyed. Do these two  tyrants hold the world record?

It's really interesting how the Russian invasion of a former soviet bloc country has hardened the resolves of other former soviet bloc countries.  If there had been an ambition to 'annex' some of these other countries with little resistance they must surely know that's not the case anymore.

I guess like statues in the UK those former soviet symbols are very emotive.  Whilst the majority may have wished them away some would want them retaining as a marker of history and others would still be supportive of a new soviet bloc absorbing them.  It seems like the power of popular opinion may have tipped on it but this quote suggests it's not exactly universally popular in Estonia:

The announcement was met with hostility by some in Narva, on Estonia’s border with Russia, where only 4% of residents are ethnic Estonians and more than 80% are ethnic Russians, prompting the government to intervene quickly to counter “increasing tensions and confusion”, Kallas said.

One of the few facts from school history that stuck with me is that Stalin is in the Guinness Book of World Records for having raised the most statues of himself.  The actual number is lost on me but it was in the thousands.  My teacher was strongly of the view that raising a statue of yourself is a sure fire sign that you're a wrong 'un.

[Yorkykopite]

One of the few facts from school history that stuck with me is that Stalin is in the Guinness Book of World Records for having raised the most statues of himself.  The actual number is lost on me but it was in the thousands.  My teacher was strongly of the view that raising a statue of yourself is a sure fire sign that you're a wrong 'un.

He was right. When I was a university student Thatcher unveiled a bust of herself at her old college. There was a mass protest outside the building in which every single student at the university bar one participated (I think he was in hospital). The comment that always stuck in my mind was from the head of the union who was quoted in the local press saying "Unveiling a statue of yourself? I thought only Third World dictators did that."

[Nobby Reserve]

Finland has reduced Russian travel visas by 90 per cent while Estonia begins a mass removal of Soviet monuments:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/16/estonia-removes-soviet-era-tank-monument-amid-russia-tensions-narva

I must admit surprise at how many Soviet monuments exist in Estonia. I know that totalitarian regimes love to throw up out-size monuments glorifying the Party and the State (same thing) - especially in other people's countries - but I imagined Estonia would have removed most of these symbols of Russian Imperialism many years ago.

It makes you wonder though. Since 1989 there have probably been hundreds of thousands of statues of Lenin and Stalin which have been removed or destroyed. Do these two  tyrants hold the world record?

Was Lenin a tyrant?

Certainly to put him in the same bracket as Stalin is wrong.

[didi shamone]

He was right. When I was a university student Thatcher unveiled a bust of herself at her old college. There was a mass protest outside the building in which every single student at the university bar one participated (I think he was in hospital). The comment that always stuck in my mind was from the head of the union who was quoted in the local press saying "Unveiling a statue of yourself? I thought only Third World dictators did that."

For some reason I'm reminded of a friend  of my mother's visiting one of Trumps golf courses. She couldn't  believe the amount of Trump branding, paintings, busts etc.

[Yorkykopite]

Was Lenin a tyrant?

Certainly to put him in the same bracket as Stalin is wrong.

I wouldn't put him in the same bracket either. But they believed in the same things - one-party dictatorship, elimination of political opponents, suppression of the free press and free expression, the use of the secret police to intimidate opponents and throttle dissent, the abolition of free trade unions, the militarisation of labour, the reconquest and subjugation of independent nations. But Stalin killed many more people of course.

Maybe 'tyrant' is the wrong word. 'Dictator' is more accurate.

[Lastrador]

I wouldn't put him in the same bracket either. But they believed in the same things - one-party dictatorship, elimination of political opponents, suppression of the free press and free expression, the use of the secret police to intimidate opponents and throttle dissent, the abolition of free trade unions, the militarisation of labour, the reconquest and subjugation of independent nations. But Stalin killed many more people of course.

Maybe 'tyrant' is the wrong word. 'Dictator' is more accurate.

Maybe a less successful tyrant?

[Jiminy Cricket]

Maybe a less successful tyrant?

Or, Tyrant Lite.

[Lastrador]

Or, Tyrant Lite.

That certainly rolls off the tongue much better. 

[west_london_red]

I think the difference between Lenin and Stalin was that for Lenin dictatorship was a means to an end in trying to establish the Communist utopia, he didn’t want Stalin to take over from him because he was aware of Stalin’s flaws. Stalin didn’t seem to be so ideologically driven, always seemed more about power for the sake of power and self preservation. But, we should also remember that Lenin was only leader for 6 years or so, and it’s not unusual for a dictator to slowly lose the plot as their power, isolation and paranoia grows we are seeing with the current occupant of the Kremlin so who know how Lenin would have turned out had he been around longer, nor was he a saint in his time in power.

[Max_powers]

Finland has reduced Russian travel visas by 90 per cent while Estonia begins a mass removal of Soviet monuments:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/16/estonia-removes-soviet-era-tank-monument-amid-russia-tensions-narva

I must admit surprise at how many Soviet monuments exist in Estonia. I know that totalitarian regimes love to throw up out-size monuments glorifying the Party and the State (same thing) - especially in other people's countries - but I imagined Estonia would have removed most of these symbols of Russian Imperialism many years ago.

It makes you wonder though. Since 1989 there have probably been hundreds of thousands of statues of Lenin and Stalin which have been removed or destroyed. Do these two  tyrants hold the world record?

Estonia and Latvia both have significant Russian populations. There are areas in both countries that are the Russian majority. Some folks have nostalgic memories of Soviet Russia (probably very rose-tinted) and also many of them consume a lot of Russian propaganda too. So the act of removing soviet monuments is seen as anti-Russian by some of the more misguided folks. For long time the government have not done removed some monuments as a way to appeasing the Russian minority.

[Yorkykopite]

Maybe a less successful tyrant?

He did the necessary dirty work for the Bolsheviks though. He destroyed the democratic constitution of the February 1917 revolution after his seizure of power in October. He smashed the original soviets and centralised power in his own party and ultimately himself. He hounded and imprisoned his socialist rivals the Mensheviks and drove his best friend Martov (the Menshevik leader) into exile. He went to war against the Socialist Revolutionaries in Ukraine and eventually destroyed them and their country. He sent Stalin into socialist Georgia and smashed socialism and democracy (and any idea of Georgian national sovereignty) there too. He put down the Kronstadt rebellion and executed thousands of the original revolutionaries (with considerable help from Trotsky) - and with it extinguished the last hope for democratic socialism in Russia. He put in place the Cheka which would grow into Stalin's terroristic secret police.

I think it's a good thing that Estonia - and every other liberated part of the Soviet Empire is getting rid of the vestiges of Lenin. He was a total disaster - for Russia and for socialism.

[Yorkykopite]

Estonia and Latvia both have significant Russian populations. There are areas in both countries that are the Russian majority. Some folks have nostalgic memories of Soviet Russia (probably very rose-tinted) and also many of them consume a lot of Russian propaganda too. So the act of removing soviet monuments is seen as anti-Russian by some of the more misguided folks. For long time the government have not done removed some monuments as a way to appeasing the Russian minority.

Yes, the whole thing is complicated by Russian colonialism. Many thousands of Russians were shipped into these countries during Soviet imperialism. That means that the current governments of the Baltic nations have to tread carefully.

But those people in Estonia defending the great statues of Lenin and Soviet tanks etc are a bit like the white supremacists in Mississippi and Alabama defending their Confederate soldier statues. Reactionaries who hanker after a better time when they held the whip hand.

[Sangria]

Was Lenin a tyrant?

Certainly to put him in the same bracket as Stalin is wrong.

A tyrant is someone who rises to power within a constitutional setting with popular support, then entrenches themselves in power with personally dedicated armed support, and re-orients all aspects of the former constitution to revolve around them. Pesistratus of Athens is a relatively well documented classical tyrant without the emotive baggage that goes with the term, so is a good template for what a tyrant is.

[AndyInVA]

Some of the drone video on Telegram is fairly shocking. My own DJI drone, once it is above about 250 feet you can neither see it or hear it. Some of the grenade drops onto unsuspecting soldiers is incredibly accurate. So much do you are pretty much witnessing some guy getting wasted. It’s interesting to me that such a simple fairly low tech weapon can be modified into an effective dead ground sniper weapon.

[[new username under construction]]

Some of the drone video on Telegram is fairly shocking. My own DJI drone, once it is above about 250 feet you can neither see it or hear it. Some of the grenade drops onto unsuspecting soldiers is incredibly accurate. So much do you are pretty much witnessing some guy getting wasted. It’s interesting to me that such a simple fairly low tech weapon can be modified into an effective dead ground sniper weapon.

Now make them quieter, put a gun on them, pack them together in huge numbers, give them seek and kill AI

[AndyInVA]

Now make them quieter, put a gun on them, pack them together in huge numbers, give them seek and kill AI

There is some youtube clip of a demonstration at some high tech military festival showing exactly that. A drone with a one shot weapon fitted with facial recognition technology as it hunts out an individual to assassinate.

All very Terminator.

[thaddeus]

There is some youtube clip of a demonstration at some high tech military festival showing exactly that. A drone with a one shot weapon fitted with facial recognition technology as it hunts out an individual to assassinate.

All very Terminator.

Bad luck if you're a doppelganger for somebody on the hit list!  "We were after Katy Perry for crimes against music but accidentally got Zooey Deschanel.  Our bad"

Is it possible to create technical no-fly zones for drones without interfering with other electrical equipment?  I'm guessing not or airports would be doing so already.

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Bad luck if you're a doppelganger for somebody on the hit list!  "We were after Katy Perry for crimes against music but accidentally got Zooey Deschanel.  Our bad"

Is it possible to create technical no-fly zones for drones without interfering with other electrical equipment?  I'm guessing not or airports would be doing so already.

DJI drones already have built in software no fly zones. This isn't a problem to implement if all manufacturers choose to do so. But that probably will need to be legislated into law on a worldwide basis.

On a side note, just saw a video of a Russian drone operator who lost their drone to the Ukrainians, including footage of his take-off point, which is their base, with coordinates. Not sure if anything was done about that after.

[So… Howard Philips]

A tyrant is someone who rises to power within a constitutional setting with popular support, then entrenches themselves in power with personally dedicated armed support, and re-orients all aspects of the former constitution to revolve around them. Pesistratus of Athens is a relatively well documented classical tyrant without the emotive baggage that goes with the term, so is a good template for what a tyrant is.

Currently reading Tom Holland’s ‘Persian Fire’ and have just finished the chapter about the evolution of democracy in Athens.

Looking forward to Marathon and Salamis now.

[afc tukrish]

Currently reading Tom Holland’s ‘Persian Fire’ and have just finished the chapter about the evolution of democracy in Athens.

Looking forward to Marathon and Salamis now.

One of the best narrative histories I've read, really outstanding.

Holland does a good job discussing Greek tyranny and tyrants...

[Sangria]

Currently reading Tom Holland’s ‘Persian Fire’ and have just finished the chapter about the evolution of democracy in Athens.

Looking forward to Marathon and Salamis now.

Other well-documented classical tyrants are Julius Caesar and (even more so) Augustus, with the latter doing all the tyranty things whilst disguising the tyranny.

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Ever since the Finnish PM has been dancing up a storm lately and taking up all the headlines, this little nugget slipped through.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1560717214466064387?s=21&t=0dpzPOmg4LbY09q7ozaIAw

BREAKING:

Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu has announced that Moldova will ask for help from Romania – an active member of NATO – in case of armed aggression from Russia.

The statement was made during a meeting today with Romanian president Klaus Iohannis.

The implications are fairly major. It’s a way to say to Russia do not escalate the war in this direction. The transnistrians have so far not mobilised, and the Moldova paramilitaries are being trained and armed by the UK.

It’s pretty static at the moment, which means that the majority of Ukranian troops can be sent elsewhere for reinforcements. If the Transnitstrians tried to leave their bases, Romania will intervene. Perhaps to the level of article 5 declaration.

[So… Howard Philips]

One of the best narrative histories I've read, really outstanding.

Holland does a good job discussing Greek tyranny and tyrants...

And a salacious line discussing the various perversions practiced by all the participants.

Some steamy stuff.

[west_london_red]

Russian fascist politician and writer Alexander Dugin‘s daughter was blown up in a car bomb in the fathers car, she was also a nasty piece of work. The Russian assumption seems to be that Ukrainians carried it out.

[So… Howard Philips]

Russian fascist politician and writer Alexander Dugin‘s daughter was blown up in a car bomb in the fathers car, she was also a nasty piece of work. The Russian assumption seems to be that Ukrainians carried it out.

More likely a falling out amongst the other fascists.

Seems a departure from current Ukrainian strategy to target military installations.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Russian fascist politician and writer Alexander Dugin‘s daughter was blown up in a car bomb in the fathers car, she was also a nasty piece of work. The Russian assumption seems to be that Ukrainians carried it out.

Could be Ukranians - and that is certainly the easier one to pin it on publicly. I do wander what Ukraine would have to really gain out of such an attack though, other then as a psycological blow.

It could equally also be unspportive elements of the FSB or some other intelligence or security service who don´t like the way he has been pulling Putin.

Thing is Russia is such a basket case you just don´t know - and you´d would never believe a word coming from any official announcements on the matter either.

[stara]

Nationalism needed a martyr and Alex didn't want the job? Oh  well, Dugin can claim a brand new Lada instead.

[didi shamone]

Russian fascist politician and writer Alexander Dugin‘s daughter was blown up in a car bomb in the fathers car, she was also a nasty piece of work. The Russian assumption seems to be that Ukrainians carried it out.

Pity it wasn't her piece of shit father.
As with most russian internal affairs, the truth of this attack will never be known. The murder  will be used as propaganda and to grow the myth of victimhood.
If they blame Ukraine  then it's probably safe to assume that they had nothing to do with it.