Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22  (Read 14858 times)

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #80 on: November 29, 2021, 08:57:57 pm »
My figures for week 13. Only major change was Villa winning at Palace when they lost last season.


Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #81 on: December 3, 2021, 06:11:21 pm »
Match 14 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #82 on: December 3, 2021, 06:17:28 pm »
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #83 on: December 7, 2021, 01:16:28 pm »
Match 15 update:

This was the start of our slide last season

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #84 on: December 7, 2021, 01:21:31 pm »
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #85 on: December 13, 2021, 06:12:40 pm »
Match 16 update: no matches for the top 8 mini table

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #86 on: December 13, 2021, 06:18:09 pm »
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Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #87 on: December 17, 2021, 11:54:08 am »
Corresponding fixtures and underlying stats



Liverpool's xG difference madness continues apace. They've made a gain in 15/17 matches so far.


Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #88 on: December 17, 2021, 01:40:53 pm »
Match 17 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #89 on: December 17, 2021, 01:45:34 pm »
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #90 on: December 20, 2021, 10:45:37 am »
Match 18 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #91 on: December 20, 2021, 10:54:22 am »
The rest:

I've taken the Season To Go target up to 93 points based on where the top teams are now. 
IMO, presuming City stay consistent, Chelsea are out of the race, and we're just about hanging in there.
The remainder of the holiday schedule is likely to make this more clear.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #92 on: December 21, 2021, 12:05:38 pm »
Expected Goals Table

Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #93 on: December 21, 2021, 12:55:15 pm »
The rest:

I've taken the Season To Go target up to 93 points based on where the top teams are now. 
IMO, presuming City stay consistent, Chelsea are out of the race, and we're just about hanging in there.
The remainder of the holiday schedule is likely to make this more clear.

Ta sir as always. It does feel strange that we'll likely know whether we're still in it a few weeks from now.
"Word of the day is 'philodox' (17th century): one who is in love with their own opinion, and who consequently believes that everyone else should share it."  @susie_dent on twitter - https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1419683653844668422

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #94 on: December 21, 2021, 01:37:14 pm »
Ta sir as always. It does feel strange that we'll likely know whether we're still in it a few weeks from now.

Hi there mate.

The expected goals table had Chelsea down as over performing, and results lately have shown mean reverting.

City are looking ominous, and while we've been excellent, circumstances haven't allowed us to have that level of consistency.

It isn't hard to see City getting to near mid-90's, but that is a tad outside of what we're capable of doing right now....IMO of course.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #95 on: December 30, 2021, 10:15:00 am »
From the internet:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #96 on: December 31, 2021, 10:24:10 am »
2021 Combined Leagues Table

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #97 on: January 4, 2022, 10:05:29 am »
Latest:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #98 on: January 4, 2022, 10:15:51 am »
The rest:

If City maintain form, it's their title

Interesting that LFC, Chelsea, United & West Ham all have 1.4 ppg against the top half of the table, City @ 2.5 ppg explains the difference in the table.

We're the best against the bottom half @ 2.8 ppg

Offline Paul1611

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #99 on: January 4, 2022, 10:23:53 am »
Great work as usual JP!  Interesting that in 6 out of the 8 games we have dropped points, we've been leading the match, in some cases by 2 goals. 

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #100 on: January 4, 2022, 10:27:44 am »
Great work as usual JP!  Interesting that in 6 out of the 8 games we have dropped points, we've been leading the match, in some cases by 2 goals. 

Yup, City have been very good, but mostly, so have we......it's been very frustrating to watch us give those points away.

Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #101 on: January 4, 2022, 02:49:01 pm »
Dan Kennett (again) posted an interesting thread basically hinting that of the three high performing seasons we've put in, the one where we won the league was possibly the least dominant by certain key metrics, and he also challenges the 'we managed game state' assumption. Interesting to think we maybe had luck the year we won it, whereas we haven't in the other two. It certainly rings true in terms of this season and the 18/19 season. *shrugs*

Happy new year by the way JP et al! (Lang may yer lum reek.)
"Word of the day is 'philodox' (17th century): one who is in love with their own opinion, and who consequently believes that everyone else should share it."  @susie_dent on twitter - https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1419683653844668422

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #102 on: January 13, 2022, 09:49:59 am »
Update on the corresponding fixtures with the underlying stats


Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #103 on: January 13, 2022, 09:51:50 am »
Ta Senor B.
"Word of the day is 'philodox' (17th century): one who is in love with their own opinion, and who consequently believes that everyone else should share it."  @susie_dent on twitter - https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1419683653844668422

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #104 on: January 19, 2022, 01:45:16 pm »
I'll do the update after tonight's matches are complete, but FWIW, max Chelsea can do now in 89 points....defo toast for this season.

We can do 96 if we go perfect, so a slim chance still

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #105 on: January 20, 2022, 02:21:07 pm »
Update:

If any season is an "asterisked" season, it's this one, with how the matches have been postponed.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #106 on: January 20, 2022, 02:26:46 pm »
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Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #107 on: January 20, 2022, 02:36:48 pm »
Ta again senor (harumph).
"Word of the day is 'philodox' (17th century): one who is in love with their own opinion, and who consequently believes that everyone else should share it."  @susie_dent on twitter - https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1419683653844668422

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #108 on: January 24, 2022, 03:35:49 pm »
Update:

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #109 on: January 24, 2022, 03:37:01 pm »
Underlying stats version


Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #110 on: January 24, 2022, 03:42:19 pm »
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Offline redk84

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #111 on: January 25, 2022, 12:05:12 pm »
Thanks for this

I asked in another thread but maybe better placed here if you could help?

city seem to have a big winning run like the one we've just seen every season.

does anybody have any stats on how they far in the 10 games after their 10 (or near 10-game) winning streaks over the years?

From your last stats - just going by performance over the last 15 games - City have gone 2.2, 2.2, 2.8 ppg which would put them on around 90 if they go at the lower 2.2 rate again

We'd need to be getting 43 points from our remaining fixtures to better that. So really winning all but 2 - and drawing one of those. Unless City cockup more - which is what we need!
« Last Edit: January 25, 2022, 12:41:34 pm by redk84 »
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #112 on: January 25, 2022, 03:52:29 pm »
Thanks for that JP, I always look forward to these updates.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #113 on: February 11, 2022, 12:39:40 pm »
It's been awhile, update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #114 on: February 11, 2022, 12:45:41 pm »
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Offline stonecold_jpm

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #115 on: February 11, 2022, 12:53:17 pm »
It’s gonna be fun seeing our time and equivalent numbers especially shoot up from next month.

Offline Goalposts for Jumpers

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #116 on: February 11, 2022, 01:03:17 pm »
Didn't it used to be 2 PPG would more or less guarantee the title.

The numbers our boys are putting up are insane. Just a shame about the cheats  :no

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #117 on: February 11, 2022, 03:07:45 pm »
Didn't it used to be 2 PPG would more or less guarantee the title.

The numbers our boys are putting up are insane. Just a shame about the cheats  :no

I use 90 points as the reference point, as until we did 97 points, no second place team had broken the 90 point barrier.

Similarly, until a few season's ago, no 5th placed team had exceeded 70 points, so that was a good cutoff point for CL spots.

Offline El Lobo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #118 on: February 11, 2022, 03:13:06 pm »
Didn't it used to be 2 PPG would more or less guarantee the title.

The numbers our boys are putting up are insane. Just a shame about the cheats  :no

Nah not in the Premier League
If he's being asked to head the ball too frequently - which isn't exactly his specialty - it could affect his ear and cause an infection. Especially if the ball hits him on the ear directly.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2021-22
« Reply #119 on: February 11, 2022, 03:16:57 pm »
It’s gonna be fun seeing our time and equivalent numbers especially shoot up from next month.

We went W2 L4 for the next 6, last season, then closed out with 7 wins & 2 draws.

On an equivalent match basis, we went W6 L4 D5 over the remaining 15 matches.