Topic: The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA

[Lycan]

We're in 3rd place. Why would we be competing with a team that's 6 points behind us for 4th?

Hopefully the Manchester derby can help us cement our place their mate.

When do Utd play City anyway? Is it next weekend?

[rob1966]

If we win every game and United win every game, don't we finish 3rd because city drop points?

If that happened it would go down to goal difference as we'd end up on the same points, with City 2 pts behind in at best 5th place.

But I mean people saying it's between us and United for 4th, for United to be in major contention then they have to pull City back as well.

The gap is only 4 pts, win their game in hand and then beat City and they'll go 2 pts above them.

[Pistolero]

Beat Crystal Palace.

[cornelius]

Some serious fucking bedwetting going on in here again.

Fourth? I'm aiming for third not fourth.

Fuck that, I've still got my eye on at least 2nd place.

[jillcwhomever]

Some serious fucking bedwetting going on in here again.Fuck that, I've still got my eye on at least 2nd place.

Well maybe even second yes. Just look up not down.

[Pistolero]

Hopefully the Manchester derby can help us cement our place their mate.

When do Utd play City anyway? Is it next weekend?

27th April....a Thursday night special

[Barneylfc∗]

Hopefully the Manchester derby can help us cement our place their mate.

When do Utd play City anyway? Is it next weekend?

Even if Utd did win that, it helps us in the pursuit for 3rd. I think people looking at Utds 2 games in hand forget who they are playing against. It's a no lose situation as long as we do our own job.

[rob1966]

Southampton away and Everton away next up in the league for Chelsea. We're 8 pts behind them. Big ask for them and Spurs to both blow up, but you never know.

[rob1966]

Even if Utd did win that, it helps us in the pursuit for 3rd. I think people looking at Utds 2 games in hand forget who they are playing against. It's a no lose situation as long as we do our own job.

A draw would be the best result for us as it guarantees 3rd if we win every game.

[jillcwhomever]

Southampton away and Everton away next up in the league for Chelsea. We're 8 pts behind them. Big ask for them and Spurs to both blow up, but you never know.

The good thing is the media will put the spotlight on the top two, we can just quietly work away in the background. Let the teams above us take all the pressure.

[Lycan]

Even if Utd did win that, it helps us in the pursuit for 3rd.

Isn't that what I just basically said mate? The manchester derby could help us cement 3rd place.

[Barneylfc∗]

Isn't that what I just basically said mate? The manchester derby could help us cement 3rd place.

Yeah. Just more of a comment to the one I initially quoted claiming they're a threat to us.

[rickardinho1]

Southampton away and Everton away next up in the league for Chelsea. We're 8 pts behind them. Big ask for them and Spurs to both blow up, but you never know.

Statistically speaking there's a 0.3% chance of Liverpool winning the league this season, though that might go up ever so slightly after today's results.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Liverpool.html

In other words, don't get your hopes up.

[Sir Psycho Sexy]

Some serious fucking bedwetting going on in here again.Fuck that, I've still got my eye on at least 2nd place.

except there's really not. Christ that word is overused.

Spurs would have to fuck up hard for us to finish 2nd anyway, finishing 3rd is definitely realistic.

[alvaro]

As long as we are in control of our destiny Im happy. So far we are in that position, lets keep it that way by beating Crystal Palace. Winning that game is crucial.

Next games are Boro vs Arsenal and Burnley vs United. Burnley are almost safe but not quite safe so they will give 100%, Boro are almost fucked but not quite fucked so the same applies to them.  I will be happy if either drops points but hopefully it will be United that does.

[jillcwhomever]

except there's really not. Christ that word is overused.

Spurs would have to fuck up hard for us to finish 2nd anyway, finishing 3rd is definitely realistic.

Whose to say they won't though, pressure is different when its on you and those two will  have it all to deal with. We just continue to win our games and see what happens.

[rob1966]

Statistically speaking there's a 0.3% chance of Liverpool winning the league this season, though that might go up ever so slightly after today's results.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Liverpool.html

In other words, don't get your hopes up.

Oh I'm not, but until the maths says we can't do it, then I'll always dream that a Roy of the Rovers situation will occur for us. 

[Iska]

Statistically speaking there's a 0.3% chance of Liverpool winning the league this season, though that might go up ever so slightly after today's results.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Liverpool.html

In other words, don't get your hopes up.

The relegation percentages are interesting - it's saying 35 points will likely be enough to stay up.  So even if Palace lose all their remaining games, there's only a 20% chance of relegation.  I hope someone thinks to tell them that before next week.

[riismeister]

Based entirely on my own intuition, the chances of each top 7 team of finishing in each position ;

[bailey90]

Man Utd start playing every 3 or 4 days soon, all against good teams. That will fuck them up.

[TepidT2O]

Pinched this of of Twitter..

I reckon there's only one year (96-97)where we've previously finished top four that we would we have failed to go on and get the points we needed to hit fourth this year

[Mr_Shane]

We probably won't need 5 wins, but I hope we I hope we go for wins in all 5.

If we are to challenge for the title, we need to know how to win against the teams we will be playing against, be it winning pretty or winning ugly

[killer-heels]

We probably won't need 5 wins, but I hope we I hope we go for wins in all 5.

If we are to challenge for the title, we need to know how to win against the teams we will be playing against, be it winning pretty or winning ugly

Totally agree. We dont want to be stuttering to the end of the season as that doesnt help us going into next season. We have to be looking to get 4 wins now, especially as we have 3 games still at home.

What we could do with is Lallana and Henderson coming back.

[Barneylfc∗]

Pinched this of of Twitter..

I reckon there's only one year (96-97)where we've previously finished top four that we would we have failed to go on and get the points we needed to hit fourth this year

We've had some really shite seasons in the last 25 years 

[fudge]

We probably won't need 5 wins, but I hope we I hope we go for wins in all 5.

If we are to challenge for the title, we need to know how to win against the teams we will be playing against, be it winning pretty or winning ugly

I think one things shown us today is that whilst everyone is quite justified in thinking that 74 or 75 point is enough until the Mancs and Arsenal stop winning those games in hand we've got to maintain our 100% focus

[cornelius]

except there's really not. Christ that word is overused.

Spurs would have to fuck up hard for us to finish 2nd anyway

Not really, have you seen their fixtures? And you're forgetting that they are the ultimate bottle jobs. Fully expecting them to fuck up against United and Arsenal for a start.

[nayia2002]

I think 10-11 points from 15 would be more than enough for a top 4 finish

Man u would need 17-18 from 21 to get 4th

[riismeister]

I think 10-11 points from 15 would be more than enough for a top 4 finish

Man u would need 17-18 from 21 to get 4th

Seems logical.

I reckon we'd still be favourites for 4th with only 8 points from the last 5 games. With our better goal difference Man Utd would need 5/7 wins or 4 wins 3 draws to beat us. Arsenal would need 7/8 wins. I think there's less than 50% chance of either happening.

10 points really should seal it. Man Utd would need 6/7 wins or 5 wins 2 draws to beat us and Arsenal would need 8/8 wins. With their remaining fixtures I see this happening 0/10 times.

[Crosby Nick]

Pinched this of of Twitter..

I reckon there's only one year (96-97)where we've previously finished top four that we would we have failed to go on and get the points we needed to hit fourth this year

99/00 makes you weep. What a fuck up. Compare points then to 00/01 and yet that season we finished with more.

[Wabaloolah]

After this weekend the remaining fixtures for the top 6 are as follows:

Note that United vs Chelsea and Middlesrough vs Arsenal are yet to be played as well.



According to this site there's a 92.1% chance of getting 4th with 74 points. To put that in perspective:

- Liverpool are on 66pts needs 8 points from 5 to reach 74 points.

- United are on 57 with 24pts to play for. To reach 74 points they need to win 5, draw 2, and lose 1.

- Arsenal are on 54pts with 24pts to play for. To reach 74 points they need to win 6 and draw 2.

Even if Arsenal and United got 74 points though they'd still need us to finish on 73pts (7pts from 5) as our goal difference is effectively worth one point as well.

 
Looking at those fixtures above I'd say 4th place is virtually secured. Even if Liverpool only won 2 and lost 1 or 2 games, one of Arsenal or United would have to go on a massive run, which seems highly unlikely given their form and fixtures - especially when you factor in United's midweek EL games (and Arsenal's FA Cup fixtures)

Mathematically speaking there's even a 70% of 4th with just 72 points, so basically, winning 2 (or 1win 3draws) against Palace, Watford, Southampton, West Ham, and/or Middlesbrough means a 70% chance of getting 4th.

Pretty large margin for error there in other words.

Clearly, the focus should be on getting 3rd, for which there's roughly a 40-45% chance of getting.

if we only take 8 points from 5 games it's likely we have to lose one game so there wouldn't be much improvement to our goal difference. If Arsenal win 6 and draw 2, at worst they are gaining 6 goals on us, so just the wins could be enough in that situation.

It would mean us stumbling over the line too and Arsenal going on an incredible run and they don't look like being capable of sustaining one at present but you never know. Utd look more likely at the moment but despite today not sure if they will be able to go on the run they need but you never know.

If we win out and Utd win out we get 3rd

[jepovic]

It's not bedwetting to worry about United. They are six behind, two games more to play. More importantly, they're playing fairly well now. We're also playing ok, but hardly spectacular either. We could definitely slip.
Arsenal competing for fourth would be a minor miracle now though, so I see it as a five team mini league.
Looking up, Spurs are playing far too good for us to have a chance now. Expecting them to slip now seems a bit silly after last season.

[jillcwhomever]

It's not bedwetting to worry about United. They are six behind, two games more to play. More importantly, they're playing fairly well now. We're also playing ok, but hardly spectacular either. We could definitely slip.
Arsenal competing for fourth would be a minor miracle now though, so I see it as a five team mini league.
Looking up, Spurs are playing far too good for us to have a chance now. Expecting them to slip now seems a bit silly after last season.

The two above us will have pressure to contend with and that can affect you. As for United playing well, this is just one game. They are entering a period where they will have to play every three days almost. There is no way they will not drop points, especially with some of the games they've got coming up. We are playing pretty well at the moment, and hopefully Lallana will be back shortly. I can see us only getting better especially as we only have to play a game a week from now on.

[cornelius]

It's not bedwetting to worry about United. They are six behind, two games more to play. More importantly, they're playing fairly well now. We're also playing ok, but hardly spectacular either. We could definitely slip.
Arsenal competing for fourth would be a minor miracle now though, so I see it as a five team mini league.
Looking up, Spurs are playing far too good for us to have a chance now. Expecting them to slip now seems a bit silly after last season.

[killer-heels]

It's not bedwetting to worry about United. They are six behind, two games more to play. More importantly, they're playing fairly well now. We're also playing ok, but hardly spectacular either. We could definitely slip.
Arsenal competing for fourth would be a minor miracle now though, so I see it as a five team mini league.
Looking up, Spurs are playing far too good for us to have a chance now. Expecting them to slip now seems a bit silly after last season.

What is your basis for saying Utd are playing 'fairly well' now? We have the same amount of points in the last 10 games as them so their form is at most level as ours. In those 10 games we have played Arsenal, City, Everton and Spurs whilst the only top 6 teams Utd have faced is Everton and Chelsea.

[JCB]

What is your basis for saying Utd are playing 'fairly well' now? We have the same amount of points in the last 10 games as them so their form is at most level as ours. In those 10 games we have played Arsenal, City, Everton and Spurs whilst the only top 6 teams Utd have faced is Everton and City.

I think you mean chelsea, not city.

[Barneylfc∗]

It's not bedwetting to worry about United. They are six behind, two games more to play. More importantly, they're playing fairly well now. We're also playing ok, but hardly spectacular either. We could definitely slip.
Arsenal competing for fourth would be a minor miracle now though, so I see it as a five team mini league.
Looking up, Spurs are playing far too good for us to have a chance now. Expecting them to slip now seems a bit silly after last season.

What games is it they played well in that make you worry? Beating a desperately poor Sunderland 3-0? Beating a desperately poor Middlesborough 3-1? A poor Watford? A Leicester side that had downed tools to get their manager sacked? Or is it the draws against the might of Everton, West Brom, and 10 man Bournemouth that make you quiver with fear?
They've 1 really good result recently, and that was today against a Chelsea side that played the worst I've seen them play all season. As for them playng 'fairly well now', they're still fucking shite mate. We'll finish 6 points clear of them at a minimum.

[whiteboots]

I think that the only threat to a top four finish now is Man Utd.

This is the business end of the season, and Mourinho knows how to handle that. In our favour is that the EL is the easier route to CL qualification for them now, combined with their heavier fixture list and tough aways at Man City and Spurs.

Our run in is as soft as it gets.

[Kekule]

It's not bedwetting to worry about United. They are six behind, two games more to play. More importantly, they're playing fairly well now. We're also playing ok, but hardly spectacular either. We could definitely slip.

I think you're worrying about the Manchester United of 6 years ago or more, rather than the Manchester United that we've seen since Ferguson left. The old United sides may have chased a gap like that down (but then they wouldn't be in that situation in the first place)

There are good reasons why this United team have gone 20 odd games unbeaten yet still sit outside the top four, and those problems are unlikely to just right themselves in the upcoming period, which is their busiest of the season don't forget.

It's not impossible for them, but it's one hell of an effort just to go into the least couple of weeks with a shout.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

If United didn't have matches in Europe or the fixture pile up they have, yes I'd be more worried than I am. But they by their own admission will focus on Europe and they have Burnley,City,Arsenal and Spurs left to play. They are not going through all of those without dropping points.

[JackWard33]

What games is it they played well in that make you worry? Beating a desperately poor Sunderland 3-0? Beating a desperately poor Middlesborough 3-1? A poor Watford? A Leicester side that had downed tools to get their manager sacked? Or is it the draws against the might of Everton, West Brom, and 10 man Bournemouth that make you quiver with fear?
They've 1 really good result recently, and that was today against a Chelsea side that played the worst I've seen them play all season. As for them playng 'fairly well now', they're still fucking shite mate. We'll finish 6 points clear of them at a minimum.

They've been playing well for 2 or 3 months - it's curlish to argue otherwise
They've been really solid and control games really well like they did today.
They don't play flamboyant football but they're crushing teams in shot totals, expg etc etc
You'd absolutely expect them too of course - the amount they've invested.
Luckily for us they got unlucky or played badly in enough of their easier games so it's now unlikely they can over take us; it'll be an achievement to finish above them and it's one we should complete from here