Topic: The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA

[DTRed]

That is true. But I have to say I find it strange people not being able to look at a particulary exciting game, and feel they can't enjoy it because we didn't win anything. Let's face it we haven't won a title in 26 years, but does that mean that some can't bear to watch any game, because we didn't win anything at the end of the season? Sometimes its just about being there, and sharing that moment of extreme feeling, that makes a game so memorable. If all we think about is trophies, then we are ignoring an awful lot of one off special games, and what is meant to just be a part of it.

Totally with this. This season has had its ups and downs but although we wont win a trophy, we've been involved all the way through.  It's not just our games that have more edge and optimism, for me I'm actually enjoying watching other games that in recent seasons have had no bearing on us as we've been out of the race by now, even for fourth.  Going from hating the bitters to cheering them against the Mancs, actually giving a shit about Saints vs City, the Mancs vs Chelsea etc.

I'm not saying it should become the norm that a race for 4th is the thing that gets everybody going, but this season has been fun and  if we get ECL football you get the feeling it'll trigger something.

On the stats above I would like to ask if the teams in the various pots were in the same pots when everybody played them the first time around.

[SerbianScouser]

I'm not saying it should become the norm that a race for 4th is the thing that gets everybody going

It should be a minimum and we've got that this year. I think under Klopp we'll see tons of CL football at Anfield.

[Big Bamber]

personally was a major optimist in 13/14 but this season i would probably fall into the category of bedwetter according to some. As with everything its using your head over your heart when talking football; of course it all goes out of the window on match day when the fever takes over but surely you dont expect blind faith from everyone? I dont believe for a minute that any more than 1 or 2 wums actually get upset when we win games or are happy when we lose.

The thing is mate i absolutely loved every minute of that 13/14 season and i absolutely loved every minute of that europa league run. But ultimately both resulted in the 2 most heartbreaking on the pitch moments of my lifetime (i stress again that i mean on the pitch, trying to word this properly given todays date). I dont want that to happen again. The journey may be enough for some but i wish i could watch those demolishings over and over again knowing that stevie got his title at last, i got to see my first ever one and spent the summer partying. Id love to watch the dortmund games and the united games and the semi final without having to think of the pathetic collapse in basel. That 3-2 over city should have gone down as the biggest and best league win anfield has seen in donkeys years and arguably ever. The dortmund 4-3 should be up there with saint etienne, juve and chelsea. Both now just make me gutted to think about.

The thing that gets me is the ultra positive "rose tinted" types are on here any time someone expresses doubts before a game and gives it the "we are liverpool football club and we dont fear anyone", spiel but then when it all goes to shit they always seem to think the problem is actually that expectations are too high and we should just enjoy the ride. So which is it, are we the massive liverpool football club that exists to be successful and win trophies, fearing nobody, or are we officially a run of the mill side that should forget winning and just have a nice time?

All liverpool fans surely share a common goal to see us doing well. How that is expressed on an internet forum doesnt really make a difference. If you were down the pub and had a moan about footie or called someone shite would you really expect everyone to turn round and call you a bedwetting twat whos probably happy we lost and hates it when we win?

Much of this resonates with me and explains the anguish of being a Reds supporter, as well as the madness of forums/pods/twittterville. Fair play.

[cornelius]

Would be the mother of all fuck ups if we don't finish the job now.

[Barneylfc∗]

I think we're 2 wins away from securing 4th as a minimum. Just need to keep winning to see if we can get 3rd ahead of City.
Arsenal need a minimum of 6 wins from 8 just to get to 71 points.
United need to beat 3 out of Arsenal, City, Spurs, and Chelsea today to have any chance really.

[killer-heels]

I think that win effectively ties up top four. The race is very much on for 3rd.

[Zaffarious]

still feel we need utd to drop points today and take points off city in the derby.  (throws up)

[Sir Psycho Sexy]

i don't think we'll have a tougher game this season than that. Utd will drop points now i feel which should really be the end of it, barring us imploding.

Arsenal will drop some more points too. 3rd should now be our aim

[SerbianScouser]

Last 4 games against bottom 13 teams :

Burnley    W
Bmouth    D
Stoke       W
Wba         W

That's more like it.

[mechinate]

I think that win effectively ties up top four. The race is very much on for 3rd.

No, it really doesn't.

[TepidT2O]

No, it really doesn't.

Agreed.....

Need to keep going...

[newterp]

i don't think we'll have a tougher game this season than that. Utd will drop points now i feel which should really be the end of it, barring us imploding.

Arsenal will drop some more points too. 3rd should now be our aim

We still have some crappy shithouse teams to play against.

[killer-heels]

No, it really doesn't.

Its not sealed it mathematically but 9 points from 5 games would be enough and frankly if we dont achieve that then its a disaster.

[JCB]

i don't think we'll have a tougher game this season than that. Utd will drop points now i feel which should really be the end of it, barring us imploding.

Arsenal will drop some more points too. 3rd should now be our aim

I've been more concerned about the Palace game than this one for a while now. Their front three look like they could give our defense some problems. Think that will be tougher, but will be happy if I'm wrong.

Great result today and bodes well for us.

[Fabulous_aurelio]

I've been more concerned about the Palace game than this one for a while now. Their front three look like they could give our defense some problems. Think that will be tougher, but will be happy if I'm wrong.

Great result today and bodes well for us.

Absolutely. Not looking forward to Palace or Southampton. Obviously we are good enough to win them but they wont lie down.

[sms1986]

Seven games unbeaten, five of them wins including four against teams not in the top six. Our remaining fixtures (and the earlier games against them in parentheses) -

Crystal Palace @ Anfield (won 4-2 away)
Watford @ Vicarage Road (won 6-1 at home)
Southampton @ Anfield (drew 0-0 away)
West Ham @ London Stadium (drew 2-2 at home)
Middlesbrough @ Anfield (won 3-0 away)

I think we'll get similar results in these matches.

[Ste08]

I think we got one foot in would take one almighty fuck up now

[rickardinho1]

After this weekend the remaining fixtures for the top 6 are as follows:

Note that United vs Chelsea and Middlesrough vs Arsenal are yet to be played as well.



According to this site there's a 92.1% chance of getting 4th with 74 points. To put that in perspective:

- Liverpool are on 66pts needs 8 points from 5 to reach 74 points.

- United are on 57 with 24pts to play for. To reach 74 points they need to win 5, draw 2, and lose 1.

- Arsenal are on 54pts with 24pts to play for. To reach 74 points they need to win 6 and draw 2.

Even if Arsenal and United got 74 points though they'd still need us to finish on 73pts (7pts from 5) as our goal difference is effectively worth one point as well.

 
Looking at those fixtures above I'd say 4th place is virtually secured. Even if Liverpool only won 2 and lost 1 or 2 games, one of Arsenal or United would have to go on a massive run, which seems highly unlikely given their form and fixtures - especially when you factor in United's midweek EL games (and Arsenal's FA Cup fixtures)

Mathematically speaking there's even a 70% of 4th with just 72 points, so basically, winning 2 (or 1win 3draws) against Palace, Watford, Southampton, West Ham, and/or Middlesbrough means a 70% chance of getting 4th.

Pretty large margin for error there in other words.

Clearly, the focus should be on getting 3rd, for which there's roughly a 40-45% chance of getting.

[Haggis36]

Difficult to overstate just how massive those last 2 results are for our season. The narrative was written - no away wins in 2017, two midtable teams the likes of which we've struggled against massively this season, missing 3 of our starters and arguably 2 of our most important players (including our top scorer), and the pressure on the players starting to build.

Cue two mammoth performances - not pretty, not particularly good football, plenty to improve upon but a massive 6 points. One coming back from the dead against Stoke after a horror show first half (take a bow, Brazilian boys) and then a particularly pleasing win truly ground out by the players today (and a set piece goal against Pulis just to make it that bit sweeter).

If we make it this season (and really, it would be an unmitigated failure if we don't) then as strange as it sounds given the wins against our rivals this season, those past two games could be the pivotal moment.

[Alan_X]

That is true. But I have to say I find it strange people not being able to look at a particulary exciting game, and feel they can't enjoy it because we didn't win anything. Let's face it we haven't won a title in 26 years, but does that mean that some can't bear to watch any game, because we didn't win anything at the end of the season? Sometimes its just about being there, and sharing that moment of extreme feeling, that makes a game so memorable. If all we think about is trophies, then we are ignoring an awful lot of one off special games, and what is meant to just be a part of it.

Absolutely spot on. Enjoy each game for what it actually is. 

[DHKopper]

Difficult to overstate just how massive those last 2 results are for our season. The narrative was written - no away wins in 2017, two midtable teams the likes of which we've struggled against massively this season, missing 3 of our starters and arguably 2 of our most important players (including our top scorer), and the pressure on the players starting to build.

Cue two mammoth performances - not pretty, not particularly good football, plenty to improve upon but a massive 6 points. One coming back from the dead against Stoke after a horror show first half (take a bow, Brazilian boys) and then a particularly pleasing win truly ground out by the players today (and a set piece goal against Pulis just to make it that bit sweeter).

If we make it this season (and really, it would be an unmitigated failure if we don't) then as strange as it sounds given the wins against our rivals this season, those past two games could be the pivotal moment.

Indeed mate, fucking massive couple of results for us.

[Deo]

After this weekend the remaining fixtures for the top 6 are as follows:

Note that United vs Chelsea and Middlesrough vs Arsenal are yet to be played as well.



According to this site there's a 92.1% chance of getting 4th with 74 points. To put that in perspective:

- Liverpool are on 66pts needs 8 points from 5 to reach 74 points.

- United are on 57 with 24pts to play for. To reach 74 points they need to win 5, draw 2, and lose 1.

- Arsenal are on 54pts with 24pts to play for. To reach 74 points they need to win 6 and draw 2.

Even if Arsenal and United got 74 points though they'd still need us to finish on 73pts (7pts from 5) as our goal difference is effectively worth one point as well.

 
Looking at those fixtures above I'd say 4th place is virtually secured. Even if Liverpool only won 2 and lost 1 or 2 games, one of Arsenal or United would have to go on a massive run, which seems highly unlikely given their form and fixtures - especially when you factor in United's midweek EL games (and Arsenal's FA Cup fixtures)

Mathematically speaking there's even a 70% of 4th with just 72 points, so basically, winning 2 (or 1win 3draws) against Palace, Watford, Southampton, West Ham, and/or Middlesbrough means a 70% chance of getting 4th.

Pretty large margin for error there in other words.

Clearly, the focus should be on getting 3rd, for which there's roughly a 40-45% chance of getting.

Our ability to fuck it up in the recent past is unparalleled though.

IIRC, according to that site we had a 90%+ chance of winning the title before the Chelsea game in 13/14.

And we bottled it against Sevilla too.

It's going to be criminal if we don't beat Crystal Palace after winning against Stoke and West Brom away.

[rickardinho1]

Our ability to fuck it up in the recent past is unparalleled though.

IIRC, according to that site we had a 90%+ chance of winning the title before the Chelsea game in 13/14.

And we bottled it against Sevilla too.

It's going to be criminal if we don't beat Crystal Palace after winning against Stoke and West Brom away.

I'm not sure it was that high, given that so much depended on one result. The margin for error then was much smaller than now, as losing just one game meant that the title was back in City's hands.

Losing one-off games against Chelsea, Sevilla, Man City (league cup final), etc is far from the same thing as choking for 5 games against bottom-half sides.

Needless to say, it would take a monumental choke to not get 8 points from the last 5...

Palace (home)
Watford (away)
Southampton (home)
West Ham (away)
Middlesbrough (home)

Middlesbrough is as close to a home-banker as you can ask for, and 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss against the other 4 teams would realistically be the worst case scenario... and even that would still see us on 74 points (75 effectively due to better GD than United and Arsenal).

Don't forget that there's a good chance that even 72 gets 4th, so our margin for error for 4th is actually pretty big as even just 2 wins from those 5 could see us get 4th.

[Barneylfc∗]

Our ability to fuck it up in the recent past is unparalleled though.

IIRC, according to that site we had a 90%+ chance of winning the title before the Chelsea game in 13/14.

And we bottled it against Sevilla too.

It's going to be criminal if we don't beat Crystal Palace after winning against Stoke and West Brom away.

How in the name of fuck did we bottle it against Sevilla? You know when is the last time they lost a tie in that competition? Just because we didn't win it doesn't make it a bottle job.

How many players in this squad were playing when we played Chelsea? We'd a 90% chance as we'd 3 games to go, 2 of which were at home. We needed to win 14 games on the spin to win the league. We won 11. It was a monumental effort to get to that position in the first place.

Your 2 examples of our 'ability to fuck it up is unparalleled' are absolute bollocks. You any other examples?

[jillcwhomever]

Our ability to fuck it up in the recent past is unparalleled though.

IIRC, according to that site we had a 90%+ chance of winning the title before the Chelsea game in 13/14.

And we bottled it against Sevilla too.

It's going to be criminal if we don't beat Crystal Palace after winning against Stoke and West Brom away.

For god's sake. 

[sms1986]

Our ability to fuck it up in the recent past is unparalleled though.

IIRC, according to that site we had a 90%+ chance of winning the title before the Chelsea game in 13/14.

And we bottled it against Sevilla too.

It's going to be criminal if we don't beat Crystal Palace after winning against Stoke and West Brom away.

Thanks, Eeyore.

[newterp]

shame that Chelsea didn't put in any performance today. United still have a nightmare run in - so they will more likely than not drop a lot of points.

Spurs tails are up and they will be putting it all on the line - including the game against united.

[Lfsea]

Not even arsed about 4th anymore. I'm all about winning the league

[Sir Psycho Sexy]

After this weekend the remaining fixtures for the top 6 are as follows:

Note that United vs Chelsea and Middlesrough vs Arsenal are yet to be played as well.



According to this site there's a 92.1% chance of getting 4th with 74 points. To put that in perspective:

- Liverpool are on 66pts needs 8 points from 5 to reach 74 points.

- United are on 57 with 24pts to play for. To reach 74 points they need to win 5, draw 2, and lose 1.

- Arsenal are on 54pts with 24pts to play for. To reach 74 points they need to win 6 and draw 2.

Even if Arsenal and United got 74 points though they'd still need us to finish on 73pts (7pts from 5) as our goal difference is effectively worth one point as well.

 
Looking at those fixtures above I'd say 4th place is virtually secured. Even if Liverpool only won 2 and lost 1 or 2 games, one of Arsenal or United would have to go on a massive run, which seems highly unlikely given their form and fixtures - especially when you factor in United's midweek EL games (and Arsenal's FA Cup fixtures)

Mathematically speaking there's even a 70% of 4th with just 72 points, so basically, winning 2 (or 1win 3draws) against Palace, Watford, Southampton, West Ham, and/or Middlesbrough means a 70% chance of getting 4th.

Pretty large margin for error there in other words.

Clearly, the focus should be on getting 3rd, for which there's roughly a 40-45% chance of getting.

Watford are safe and West Ham will hit 40 by the time we play them as well I'd say. Boro will also be down when we play them i think. Palace without Sakho will still be a tough game, but at home I back us to get the 3 points.

[Zoomers]

Think it's between us and United for fourth place.

[him_15]

Utd is our major threat now.

[sms1986]

  They beat Chelsea and some of our fans go full headless chicken!

[Stockholm Syndrome]

If we win every game and United win every game, don't we finish 3rd because city drop points?

[SerbianScouser]

Think it's between us and United for fourth place.

In that case we're a lock for a Top 4 place. I still want the 3rd spot though.

[sms1986]

If we win every game and United win every game, don't we finish 3rd because city drop points?

Yeah, although United aren't winning all of their remaining games.

[_Redman]

think utd might go for the EL after all. Have a look at the remaining teams, they're the hot favourites

[Stockholm Syndrome]

Yeah, although United aren't winning all of their remaining games.

But I mean people saying it's between us and United for 4th, for United to be in major contention then they have to pull City back as well.

[Barneylfc∗]

Think it's between us and United for fourth place.

We're in 3rd place. Why would we be competing with a team that's 6 points behind us for 4th?

[jillcwhomever]

Utd is our major threat now.

Not major threat. We just keep winning, they won't win all of their's. They will have Europe too which will intefere.

[jillcwhomever]

Think it's between us and United for fourth place.

Fourth? I'm aiming for third not fourth.