Topic: Election Night in Canada

[jerseyhoya]

It's election day in Canada. Seems like there have been a lot of election days in Canada recently.

Some big questions for the evening: Are the NDP really going to come in second? Will Harper come close enough to a majority that he can give it another go? Will the left of center parties be able to form a coalition and boot the Conservatives out of government? Do I know what I'm talking about?

I'd answer yes, yes, no, no

Interested on hearing from some Canadian RAWKites on what the campaign has been like and what you expect to happen tonight result wise and in the weeks ahead in forming a new government. It certainly seems like this election has the potential for a historic shake up of Canadian politics.

[Canada Loves Anfield]

NDP? Depends if the Youth go out and vote. I voted this morning for my 22 year old NDP MP in St Pauls (Toronto). Dont think he has a chance against the Liberal, but the Conservative is deffo not winning my riding.

Harper's majority? I dont think so if the NDP actually pick up seats in Quebec. He cant just win the West and get a majority. Most of Toronto is anti-Conservative and if they lose out on Quebec (1/4 of the seats), they dont stand a chance. Think there may be a chance of the Liberals and NDP forming government, although I doubt it will happen.

Centre-left coalition - answered above. Think they may have the chance to do it, but will Canadians accept it? They may have to cause we are sick of voting every 2 seconds.

PS - Fuck Harper (the only reason our economy wasnt ruined is because of the genius of Paul Martin under Chretien's reign - FACT)

[Kahuna{=}Berger]

Jim Lahey for Prime Minister. Randy for weekend Primerib-Minister.

[Alphaville]

NDP? Depends if the Youth go out and vote. I voted this morning for my 22 year old NDP MP in St Pauls (Toronto). Dont think he has a chance against the Liberal, but the Conservative is deffo not winning my riding.

Harper's majority? I dont think so if the NDP actually pick up seats in Quebec. He cant just win the West and get a majority. Most of Toronto is anti-Conservative and if they lose out on Quebec (1/4 of the seats), they dont stand a chance. Think there may be a chance of the Liberals and NDP forming government, although I doubt it will happen.

Centre-left coalition - answered above. Think they may have the chance to do it, but will Canadians accept it? They may have to cause we are sick of voting every 2 seconds.

PS - Fuck Harper (the only reason our economy wasnt ruined is because of the genius of Paul Martin under Chretien's reign - FACT)

Pretty much spot on.

My riding in Ottawa will stay Liberal but my girlfriend's riding in Montreal (Outremont) will be interesting to watch.  In many ways, Outremont was at the forefront of the NDP's incursion in Quebec, with Mulcair being a popular NDP figurehead in the province.  Overall, it looks like the momentum from Outremont will sweep a few more riding in La Belle Province, if we are to believe the latest polls.  It will be interesting to see if all that talk of an NDP spring will actually materialize.

I think the popularity of the NDP can be explained by 3 things:

1) Most NDP candidates aren't nuts and actually represent where Canadians (and the Quebecois in particular) stand on many issues.
2) The Liberal and Bloc parties are aging dinosaurs with ancient messages that are putting the voters to sleep.
3) Jack Layton's mustache and fashion sense. 

[Canada Loves Anfield]

4) Harper is a c*nt

[Scarlet`]

I think my riding will stay Liberal and that is what I am voting for.  However, it does not mean that I particularly like Iggy but more because I am voting for a trusted MP. 

As for a Conservative Majority?  Not likely that the NDP is playing total football

I really hate the smear campaigns by the Tories and the Grits.  It's disgusting at a new level. 

[Alphaville]

4) Harper is a c*nt

Yeah, I thought about that one, but I'm not convinced that voters are switching from Conservatives to NDP.  I think the NDP is finding votes that were previously going to the Liberals and Bloc, and maybe even harpooning a few people who hadn't voted in the past.

I wonder what the rate of participation will be this time.  One would think that with so many potential changes to the political landscape, voter turnout would be quite high.

Still, I'm pretty amazed that Layton has found a way to play his cards right this time.  He reminds me of a US-style politician, probably because he is a professional politician. I can picture him shaking hands and kissing babies.  Harper seems like he would be at home managing a right-wing think tank, Ignatieff could go back to Harvard and there's nothing professional about Duceppe (which is what makes him so fun to watch).

[Scarlet`]

Yeah, I thought about that one, but I'm not convinced that voters are switching from Conservatives to NDP.  I think the NDP is finding votes that were previously going to the Liberals and Bloc, and maybe even harpooning a few people who hadn't voted in the past.

I wonder what the rate of participation will be this time.  One would think that with so many potential changes to the political landscape, voter turnout would be quite high.

Still, I'm pretty amazed that Layton has found a way to play his cards right this time.  He reminds me of a US-style politician, probably because he is a professional politician. I can picture him shaking hands and kissing babies.  Harper seems like he would be at home managing a right-wing think tank, Ignatieff could go back to Harvard and there's nothing professional about Duceppe (which is what makes him so fun to watch).

Duceppe can go on ranting about separatism

[Canada Loves Anfield]

I imagine participation will be low cause everyone is fed the fuck up with having to go to the polls every 2 years.

And I agree - the political attack ads were disgusting. I loved the, "Liberals are soft on crime". WHO THE FUCK IS SCARED OF CRIME IN CANADA?

[jerseyhoya]

Is there a magic number that people are speculating the Conservatives have to hit for another Conservative minority government to be the likely outcome. Conservative MPs > Liberals + NDP? I know you guys are saying they won't win a majority, but I don't think anyone is really expecting them to win a majority at this point.

And this might really be betraying how little I know about Canadian politics, but it seems to me from a long term party relevance position, if the Liberals win fewer seats than the NDP and back Layton to be Prime Minister, that would be a pretty good way to make your party the new third party going forward. They might be better off from a party (if not policy) standpoint by giving Harper votes here and there to get things through for another year or two and having another go at trying to reclaim all the ground they've lost over the past few elections under a different leader. Or are they such an institution that they can afford to take a back seat to the left party without risking their status as a major party? Or is the NDP's ceiling pretty much what they're going to hit this time so the Liberals don't have to worry about further deterioration? I dunno, just seems weird that the party that has ruled Canada for so much of the last century might take a spot as a junior partner in government.

[Canada Loves Anfield]

You know more about Canadian politics than 99% of this website, so dont worry haha.

The Liberals will be back, no matter if they end up 3rd. The Conservative got 2 seats in 1993 and are back!

Iggy is just a fucking idiot and as long as he leads the Liberals, they wont be a national party. Once they get someone with some charisma, they'll be back. We are a Liberal country (out East).

[Rigden]

i didnt vote
stephen harper could come out and say that he would cut off the water supply to calgary and conservatives would still get voted in.
i hope the people in areas that are in the balance go out and vote for ndp.

think the vote will be heavily split ndp/liberal but with a conservative minority and ndp opposition.

Should still vote, for each vote the party receives $2.

Voted earlier, went orange. I live in Gilles Duceppe's riding, but apparently there is talk that the NDP might nick it.   

[jerseyhoya]

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

Looks like a Canadian version of Nate Silver's 538. There's a nice riding-by-riding prediction chart there so it should be easy enough to follow along as the evening wears on to see who is over and underperforming in the different provinces.

[Canada Loves Anfield]

i didnt vote
stephen harper could come out and say that he would cut off the water supply to calgary and conservatives would still get voted in.
i hope the people in areas that are in the balance go out and vote for ndp.

think the vote will be heavily split ndp/liberal but with a conservative minority and ndp opposition.

You should always still vote

[Rigden]

would you have voted for duceppe if that wasnt the case?

No way. I have nothing in common with the Bloque. So far always voted Liberal but this year they had some sort snobbish attitude that I couldn't stand.

[Canada Loves Anfield]

i agree with the sentiment but nowhere else in canada does your vote mean less. it literally means NOTHING. it's always a huge landslide. if i were in say edmonton then i would go out and vote liberal because they stand a chance there but when stephen harpers right hand man is your MP there is just no chance. might still go if i leave the house but not making an effort.

Helps promote the cause for promotional representation

[Libertine]

Sounds like you guys need AV.

[El Campeador]

I think the Canadians could do worse than to declare Adam their King, and seat him on a throne made of beer.

[Canada Loves Anfield]

You are a smart man, Hasan.

Funnily enough, a mate sent me this today and said we should get it going for the next national election:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Beer-Lovers%27_Party

The party soon split into Large Beer and Small Beer factions, despite Rewiński's claims that "beer is neither light nor dark, it is tasty."

[Alphaville]

Is there a magic number that people are speculating the Conservatives have to hit for another Conservative minority government to be the likely outcome. Conservative MPs > Liberals + NDP? I know you guys are saying they won't win a majority, but I don't think anyone is really expecting them to win a majority at this point.

And this might really be betraying how little I know about Canadian politics, but it seems to me from a long term party relevance position, if the Liberals win fewer seats than the NDP and back Layton to be Prime Minister, that would be a pretty good way to make your party the new third party going forward. They might be better off from a party (if not policy) standpoint by giving Harper votes here and there to get things through for another year or two and having another go at trying to reclaim all the ground they've lost over the past few elections under a different leader. Or are they such an institution that they can afford to take a back seat to the left party without risking their status as a major party? Or is the NDP's ceiling pretty much what they're going to hit this time so the Liberals don't have to worry about further deterioration? I dunno, just seems weird that the party that has ruled Canada for so much of the last century might take a spot as a junior partner in government.

The ironic thing is that a few elder statesmen from both the Liberals and the NDP (Chretien and Broadbent) were in favor of a strategic partnership between both parties early on in the election cycle. In hindsight, I think the Liberals dropped the ball big time on this.  Had they negotiated early on, they would have held the stronger position and been able to keep the Liberals as THE center-left party for Canada with the NDP acting as their lackeys.  But I'm pretty sure Ignatieff got cocky and Layton probably didn't feel like working under a robot, and neither party knew how to deal with Harper's statements that a two-party coalition = THE APOCALYPSE, so they both said no.  It appears that the NDP made the right decision and the Liberals now look like buffoons. They are likely to be relegated to third place and will have to think long and hard about why they keep fucking up. Like CLA has said, they'll be back.  They are backed by too much history and cash to slip away after one decade of messing around.

Depending on the results of the election, the NDP and Liberals might consider forming a coalition, but this time around, Layton will be its figurehead.  Don't worry, his wardrobe will be pressed, his mustache will be perfectly trimmed and he'll know what camera to look into.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/11zIvtJ6jak?fs=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/11zIvtJ6jak?fs=1</a>

[Scarlet`]

i agree with the sentiment but nowhere else in canada does your vote mean less. it literally means NOTHING. it's always a huge landslide. if i were in say edmonton then i would go out and vote liberal because they stand a chance there but when stephen harpers right hand man is your MP there is just no chance. might still go if i leave the house but not making an effort.

Wow, you're the first non-cowboy non-Conservative I've met from Calgary

[rafathegaffa83]

I think the NDP is finding votes that were previously going to the Liberals and Bloc, and maybe even harpooning a few people who hadn't voted in the past.

I think the NDP 'surge' is probably due to the fact most Canadians don't trust Harper and don't think much of the soundbite-heavy Ignatieff. Additionally, the NDP are the only party who has even briefly discussed two issues that are important to Canadians in a non-fearmongering way: health care and job creation.

Iggy is just a fucking idiot and as long as he leads the Liberals, they wont be a national party. Once they get someone with some charisma, they'll be back. We are a Liberal country (out East).

What amazes me with The Liberal campaign is the unwillingness to fight back. Harper has had years of ads criticizing Ignatieff, but he and the Liberals haven't made use of their resources to critique some of Harper's comments in the pastThe Liberals have made some poor leadership candidate choices the past two elections and I would hate to think they are hanging everything on Justin Trudeau being their saviour.

Think there may be a chance of the Liberals and NDP forming government, although I doubt it will happen.

.

I think we'll be back to where we were before: Conservative minority, but with increased NDP seats and fewer Liberals.

[Seebab]

It's election day in Canada. Seems like there have been a lot of election days in Canada recently.

Some big questions for the evening: Are the NDP really going to come in second? Will Harper come close enough to a majority that he can give it another go? Will the left of center parties be able to form a coalition and boot the Conservatives out of government? Do I know what I'm talking about?

I'd answer yes, yes, no, no

Interested on hearing from some Canadian RAWKites on what the campaign has been like and what you expect to happen tonight result wise and in the weeks ahead in forming a new government. It certainly seems like this election has the potential for a historic shake up of Canadian politics.

I'm impressed. I don't know many Americans that know anything about Canadian politics, let alone take interest in it. The same can be said about a lot of Canadians to be honest.

I agree with what's been said on most of the page already and I'll also add that I hate Harper.

[Seebab]

What amazes me with The Liberal campaign is the unwillingness to fight back. Harper has had years of ads criticizing Ignatieff, but he and the Liberals haven't made use of their resources to critique some of Harper's comments in the past.

Even though it probably hurts the Liberals I do prefer parties to concentrate on their own policies rather than continuously criticise (and usually exaggerate) other parties' policies.

I think we'll be back to where we were before: Conservative minority, but with increased NDP seats and fewer Liberals.

Agreed on that.

[Scarlet`]

The Liberals have made some poor leadership candidate choices the past two elections and I would hate to think they are hanging everything on Justin Trudeau being their saviour.
.

I can't wait to see Justin Trudeau up there leading the Liberals to a Liberal Majority

I can't stand Iggy ~_~

[Alphaville]

I think we'll be back to where we were before: Conservative minority, but with increased NDP seats and fewer Liberals.

Yep, that's the most likely outcome.  We should know in 5 hours or so.

[Scarlet`]

Yep, that's the most likely outcome.  We should know in 5 hours or so.

I can't see a coalition gov't happening tho

[rafathegaffa83]

The stories of voters being given false polling station information are disturbing and saddening. This sort of thing shouldn't be happening in this country.

Messages provide false polling station info
KIRK MAKIN — Justice Reporter
Globe and Mail Update
Published Monday, May. 02, 2011 4:00PM EDT
Last updated Monday, May. 02, 2011 4:38PM EDT

Bogus phone messages that mislead voters about their polling stations have caused widespread disruptions in at least two provinces: Ontario and B.C.

The automated messages claim to be from Elections Canada. They advise residents in both official languages that their polling station has been changed due to an unexpectedly heavy voter turnout.

As a result, voters are showing up at the address supplied on the message, only to find it is not a polling station.

The false messages appear to be clustered primarily in ridings where close races are anticipated, meaning a small swing in voting preferences could mean the margin between victory and defeat.

In one riding in Guelph, Ont., the local Liberal candidate has arranged for cars to offer a lift to voters who have been misdirected. The voters are then driven to the proper polling station.

Francine Bastien, an Elections Canada spokesperson, said the office has been fielding scores of calls from frustrated voters in areas, such as Kitchener-Waterloo and Ottawa.

Voters should ignore automated phone messages claiming to be from Elections Canada and follow the instructions on the voting information cards they received in the mail, Ms. Bastien said.

Suspicious voters can check the Elections Canada website or call 1-800-463-6868.

Ben Grossman, a Guelph resident, said he received one of the bogus calls mid-morning telling him that he should vote at a particular mall in downtown Guelph.

Mr. Grossman knew there was no polling booth at the mall, so he went to the office of the local Elections Canada returning officer to warn of the trick.

“They told me that they had been receiving hundreds of calls complaining about this,” Mr. Grossman said. “People need to know that these calls are fraudulent. I presume the purpose behind this is to keep people from voting or to cause disruptions.”

“It is a major disruption and its very unfair, whoever is doing it,” said an Elections Canada official in the Guelph region.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/messages-provide-false-polling-station-info/article2007127/

[Rigden]

The stories of voters being given false polling station information are disturbing and saddening. This sort of thing shouldn't be happening in this country.

I wonder who is behind this? and what is scope?

[Alphaville]

I wonder who is behind this? and what is scope?

I blame the Pirate Communist Party of Canada.

[Rigden]

I blame the Pirate Communist Party of Canada.

I was reading their manifesto earlier and I found myself agreeing to a lot they were saying. Haha.

[Nonex]

I actually just came from a voting both, voted NDP. Although I preferred the policies from the Liberal Party, I am more concerned with getting rid of Harper. He did OK with the economic recession, but the longest ever minority government in history proves people want some change. I think Layton is just a bit more of a breath of fresh air which is why a lot of the younger people are voting for him and accounts for the recent surge. I'm hoping that the NDP will create a coalition government if they don't succeed in getting rid of the conservatives.

[Scarlet`]

Moment of truth within the hour

[Rigden]

This is going to be exciting.

[jerseyhoya]

#tweettheresults is the number one topic trending on Twitter worldwide

[rafathegaffa83]

The current numbers seem to indicate an impending Conservative majority, which seems to fly in the face of most of the early polling and estimates. Disappointing.

[Seebab]

Bloody hell. Not good at all.

[Canada Loves Anfield]

Dear god - they're going to get the majority!

FML

[Rigden]

Still fairly early though. But blimey this isn't looking very good.

[Rigden]

Gilles Duceppe lost my riding! WOW.