Topic: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE

[rob1966]

My mate has finally seen sense and got his first Covid jab today. Soft shite should have been triple jabbed by now, but at least he has started

[TepidT2O]

51459 new cases and 41 deaths today

Big  growth form last Monday. Growth in the over 65s for the first time in ages too.

[CraigDS]

Big  growth form last Monday. Growth in the over 65s for the first time in ages too.

Fingers crossed the triple jab does it's job and whilst the 65+ may catch it that it's as mild as can be in most cases.

[west_london_red]

Not quite, but its not been used since Summer 2019 and is very likely not being used until Summer 2022 at the absolute earliest.

Weren’t you saying 2023 a weeks back?

[killer-heels]

Weren’t you saying 2023 a weeks back?

Yes sorry 2023 is the earliest, not 2022.

[CraigDS]

Weren’t you saying 2023 a weeks back?

 

She'll have booked a Jan trip away by next week.

[killer-heels]

Big  growth form last Monday. Growth in the over 65s for the first time in ages too.

Quite a few people at work have got it now, all of whom are vaccinated and one is in a pretty bad way. Its definitely on the rise now. Looks like we will have to get through December but the rest of Winter could be pretty shit again.

I was pretty sure we wouldnt have a lock down again but maybe some more restrictions come back in January. As long as schools remain open and that is absolutely the most important thing out of all the restrictions not to happen.

[TepidT2O]

Quite a few people at work have got it now, all of whom are vaccinated and one is in a pretty bad way. Its definitely on the rise now. Looks like we will have to get through December but the rest of Winter could be pretty shit again.

I was pretty sure we wouldnt have a lock down again but maybe some more restrictions come back in January. As long as schools remain open and that is absolutely the most important thing out of all the restrictions not to happen.

January and February will be chaos.  Really big numbers.

Let’s hope the hospital numbers are less bad than feared.

[killer-heels]

January and February will be chaos.  Really big numbers.

Let’s hope the hospital numbers are less bad than feared.

I think they will bring back some working from home directive. I wonder if they restrict shop opening hours as well like some half baked measure, unlikely though. Could very well restrict stadium and indoor venue attendance numbers.

[The G in Gerrard]

No positives on the horizon then.

[TepidT2O]

I think they will bring back some working from home directive. I wonder if they restrict shop opening hours as well like some half baked measure, unlikely though. Could very well restrict stadium and indoor venue attendance numbers.

Don’t know really.  It will hit so fast it’s difficult to know what will make a difference

If you want the latest info on omicron, then read this blog https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-4,

[TepidT2O]

No positives on the horizon then.

It’s not inherently more deadly than delta, and there’s a chance it’s less deadly

It’s highly unlikely those with boosters will have serious illness

And at the end of the day, that’s the important bit.

[The G in Gerrard]

It’s not inherently more deadly than delta, and there’s a chance it’s less deadly

It’s highly unlikely those with boosters will have serious illness

And at the end of the day, that’s the important bit.

How long can it be viable for 40/50k cases per day be deemed as "ok" until they reintroduce further measures?

I hope boosters/ vaccination is the answer. Will be trying to go walk in center over the next week and get booster.

[killer-heels]

How long can it be viable for 40/50k cases per day be deemed as "ok" until they reintroduce further measures?

I hope boosters/ vaccination is the answer. Will be trying to go walk in center over the next week and get booster.

Yep, the case numbers and the increase will make it hard for the NHS. Am thinking now some more measures come back such as working from home, some reduction in non essential events etc.

[TepidT2O]

How long can it be viable for 40/50k cases per day be deemed as "ok" until they reintroduce further measures?

I hope boosters/ vaccination is the answer. Will be trying to go walk in center over the next week and get booster.

It’s won’t be 40-50k for long, so don’t worry about those numbers..

I reckon we’ll be well well over 100k in January (speculation on my part rather than informed prediction btw)

[Commie Bobbie]

It’s won’t be 40-50k for long, so don’t worry about those numbers..

I reckon we’ll be well well over 100k in January (speculation on my part rather than informed prediction btw)

Thing is Javid said as far back as July they expected case rates to hit 100k at some point - so the likelihood of the dial being changed by such numbers especially when its becoming clearer and clearer that the economic hit is more important to the government than anything else.

Gotta bribe those voters with tax cuts with an election looming in the not so distant.

[PaulF]

Hmm… yes, but it’s not utterly collapsing.

But cancer treatments for example are being delayed to the point that it's affecting our already shit mortality rates. Whilst not utterly collapsing it's about as strong as United's defence.

[killer-heels]

But cancer treatments for example are being delayed to the point that it's affecting our already shit mortality rates. Whilst not utterly collapsing it's about as strong as United's defence.

And there will be a greater backlog by the end of December.

[killer-heels]

Thing is Javid said as far back as July they expected case rates to hit 100k at some point - so the likelihood of the dial being changed by such numbers especially when its becoming clearer and clearer that the economic hit is more important to the government than anything else.

Gotta bribe those voters with tax cuts with an election looming in the not so distant.

Some restrictions will be back.

[PaulF]

It’s won’t be 40-50k for long, so don’t worry about those numbers..

I reckon we’ll be well well over 100k in January (speculation on my part rather than informed prediction btw)

The case number is less of a barometer than six months ago? Hospital numbers tick up with cases, but at a far lower rate now? Is 100k the new 50k, or the new 20k. Either lead to deaths sadly but there is a balancing act now. I guess there always is with health but it's never been in the spotlight so much.

[Commie Bobbie]

Some restrictions will be back.

I have no doubt they will be, I can't help but think that they need to happen sooner rather than later, but suspect they will - as always - be later. The cynic in me thinks January 3rd.

[killer-heels]

I have no doubt they will be, I can't help but think that they need to happen sooner rather than later, but suspect they will - as always - be later. The cynic in me thinks January 3rd.

That seems about right. No way are they cancelling Christmas this year and there is only a week or so left of the school term. As long as schools remain open though that’s generally the most important thing.

[So… Howard Philips]

I have no doubt they will be, I can't help but think that they need to happen sooner rather than later, but suspect they will - as always - be later. The cynic in me thinks January 3rd.

I think you will be proved right.

[TepidT2O]

That seems about right. No way are they cancelling Christmas this year and there is only a week or so left of the school term. As long as schools remain open though that’s generally the most important thing.

Genuinely, schools have to remain open.. the mental health issues we are seeing from lock downs are horrific.  Never seen anything like it. And that’s before we even discuss child protection issues.

But you have to have staff in schools and kids in schools in order to do it. 

[killer-heels]

Genuinely, schools have to remain open.. the mental health issues we are seeing from lock downs are horrific.  Never seen anything like it. And that’s before we even discuss child protection issues.

But you have to have staff in schools and kids in schools in order to do it. 

Yes I totally understand. But point being that sports, music and entertainment events, even non essential shops can be targeted to help ease the pressure. Everything needs to be looked at but schools cannot in terms of considering what to shut down.

[filopastry]

Genuinely, schools have to remain open.. the mental health issues we are seeing from lock downs are horrific.  Never seen anything like it. And that’s before we even discuss child protection issues.

But you have to have staff in schools and kids in schools in order to do it. 

I wouldn't argue with that, I would say that for Delta though schools have likely been the major driver of cases, based on the age breakdown of those impacted.

So if schools are staying open (and they should) then it gets harder to push for other measures many of which will have pretty marginal impacts on infection but come with significant economic impacts, stuff like masking in public transport is a no brainer, but closing down or restricting parts of the economy is a bigger ask.

[Commie Bobbie]

I think you will be proved right.

The last two years have taught me about this government - don't expect anything until its too late.

The public are incandescent with rage with stories about just what the government was getting up to when putting the country into Tier 4. I think they fear civil disorder from a small but vocal chunk of the population if any restrictions come in this side of Xmas.

Will say this, I do think there needs to come a point when vaccine passports have to be seriously discussed in this country. That goes against everything I believe in, but we're getting to a point where that same chunk of the population are holding any progress back - and they are being aided and abetted by a government unwilling to take them on.

As for me, I'm heading into the office for the first time in 18 months on Thursday, need to have an Lateral Flow test done to get in, so as I take one before every visit to see mother - who's fitter and healthier than me - and my sister - who've both been DJd thankfully, that's not exactly a great chore, and I'm not going to be particularly sociable in the week before Xmas to minimise any risk to me or them.

I know of a handful of people who have had Delta so far, both off their kids, as schools are fertile breeding grounds for such a disease. We have to hope with the holidays coming up, that the rates go down just enough to help the health service - but I do fear for the coming few months.

[The G in Gerrard]

Yep, the case numbers and the increase will make it hard for the NHS. Am thinking now some more measures come back such as working from home, some reduction in non essential events etc.

Some companies don't want hybrid working which baffles me.

Some are suggesting (rightly so imo) to avoid public transport and drive to work or WFH. The differences between different industries are vast.

Just seems like anytime there's "light at the end of the tunnel" it disappears again.

[The G in Gerrard]

It’s won’t be 40-50k for long, so don’t worry about those numbers..

I reckon we’ll be well well over 100k in January (speculation on my part rather than informed prediction btw)

Hopefully not mate. I find these numbers both horrific & disgusting in equal measure.

[killer-heels]

Some companies don't want hybrid working which baffles me.

Some are suggesting (rightly so imo) to avoid public transport and drive to work or WFH. The differences between different industries are vast.

Just seems like anytime there's "light at the end of the tunnel" it disappears again.

Last winter was incredibly bleak but the vaccinations really changed the game. Mid to long term we will get there  and I am positive about that but in the short term and this winter things will be really tough. It was never going to just stop.

There are some things that we have to get on with and that’s why I mentioned schools. Every effort must be made and everything else sacrificed, be it non essential businesses, to ensure they don’t close.

[djahern]

It’s won’t be 40-50k for long, so don’t worry about those numbers..

I reckon we’ll be well well over 100k in January (speculation on my part rather than informed prediction btw)

Stick another zero on that for the real figure I would say. Though I think we’ll have changed our testing procedure by then and have reached a max threshold of infections we can identify - maybe around the 100k mark as you say. Vast majority of infections look likely to be asymptomatic or close to it. Hoping that gets confirmed over the next couple of weeks.

[filopastry]

Yes if severity of symptoms continues to look relatively mild in SA, I think we are just going to let this rip in Dec, and see how things are looking in Jan.

Tory MPs are sounding pretty opposed to restrictions generally, even public opinion isn't as strongly in support of restrictions as it used to be, I don't think a "casedemic" is going to shift those opinions, only a dramatic increase in hospitalisations or deaths will, the problem with something spreading this fast is that by the time that hits its already too late to get the benefit of restrictions, as you already have a few more doublings built in.

We might get lucky, we might not, only time will tell, obviously there is an issue with trying to get good data on the Omicron wave from SA, which is a very young wave both in terms of how long its been going on for and the average age of people with the disease, I also haven't seen any info as to whether Long Covid is still an issue with less severe cases of Omicron

[Machae]

But cancer treatments for example are being delayed to the point that it's affecting our already shit mortality rates. Whilst not utterly collapsing it's about as strong as United's defence.

Thats true, not just cancer patients, but any screening (blood, heart, etc) either from GPs or hospitals are non existent now. God knows what illnesses and sickness people are ignoring or putting up with because its near impossible to get anything looked at without being on a long waiting list. People are resorting to using A&Es to get treatment, where you're probably behind 50 other people and a 12hr wait

[djahern]

Yes if severity of symptoms continues to look relatively mild in SA, I think we are just going to let this rip in Dec, and see how things are looking in Jan.

Tory MPs are sounding pretty opposed to restrictions generally, even public opinion isn't as strongly in support of restrictions as it used to be, I don't think a "casedemic" is going to shift those opinions, only a dramatic increase in hospitalisations or deaths will, the problem with something spreading this fast is that by the time that hits its already too late to get the benefit of restrictions, as you already have a few more doublings built in.

We might get lucky, we might not, only time will tell, obviously there is an issue with trying to get good data on the Omicron wave from SA, which is a very young wave both in terms of how long its been going on for and the average age of people with the disease, I also haven't seen any info as to whether Long Covid is still an issue with less severe cases of Omicron

It’s all complicated of course by our ongoing issues with delta. We’re just about entering the time when it began its continuous growth phase last year that continued until lockdown. Some hints it’s rising again so we can’t ignore it   It may require some interventions like a work from home guidance at the exact time media stories are all about a milder variant. That makes things tricky.

[filopastry]

Thats true, not just cancer patients, but any screening (blood, heart, etc) either from GPs or hospitals are non existent now. God knows what illnesses and sickness people are ignoring or putting up with because its near impossible to get anything looked at without being on a long waiting list. People are resorting to using A&Es to get treatment, where you're probably behind 50 other people and a 12hr wait

Sadly if you look at UK mortality stats at the moment, you can see we are getting higher excess mortality than can be explained just by official Covid death numbers.

[filopastry]

It’s all complicated of course by our ongoing issues with delta. We’re just about entering the time when it began its continuous growth phase last year that continued until lockdown. Some hints it’s rising again so we can’t ignore it   It may require some interventions like a work from home guidance at the exact time media stories are all about a milder variant. That makes things tricky.

Very true.

Not just an issue for us either a lot of Europe is in the same place, and it wouldn't be a shock if the US ended up in the same place as well.

Christmas is an unknown for us in terms of transmission as well, schools are closed and work travel reduced but other forms of social mixing are likely to be significantly higher.

I would imagine a lot of the reasoning behind Ireland bringing in restrictions for the Christmas period, is the horrific experience they had with Alpha last year which was introduced from the UK and utterly exploded from a low level over the Christmas period which was relatively unrestricted there.

[TSC]

It’s all complicated of course by our ongoing issues with delta. We’re just about entering the time when it began its continuous growth phase last year that continued until lockdown. Some hints it’s rising again so we can’t ignore it   It may require some interventions like a work from home guidance at the exact time media stories are all about a milder variant. That makes things tricky.

Think the variant this time last year was Alpha.  Delta landed here around Easter after government never added India to the ‘red list’, as Johnson was chasing a trade deal with Modi. It would’ve eventually landed anyway no doubt but that (non) decision sped its spread up.

Then of course as Delta spread how did we mitigate?  By relaxing most measures under government via media promoted ‘freedom day’.  It’s why cases have remained so high through Summer and since.

[carling]

Is there any reason to believe next winter or any winters after will be much different to this one?

The vaccines seem to have exceeded all expectations on how effective they are, and it doesn't sound like covid is going away.

And UK specifically we can't expect the NHS situation to improve under this government, and the next general election isn't until 2024.

[killer-heels]

Is there any reason to believe next winter or any winters after will be much different to this one?

The vaccines seem to have exceeded all expectations on how effective they are, and it doesn't sound like covid is going away.

And UK specifically we can't expect the NHS situation to improve under this government, and the next general election isn't until 2024.

Despite the grim situation, its still better than last year. Next year we will have more boosters, more vaccinations, more treatments that it will probably better again. Winter is always bad for the NHS even pre Covid but the level of Covid severity has already gotten better and will continue to get better and more diluted as point of concern. At the moment we are still early in its life and thus restrictions are getting discussed.

[TSC]

Is there any reason to believe next winter or any winters after will be much different to this one?

The vaccines seem to have exceeded all expectations on how effective they are, and it doesn't sound like covid is going away.

And UK specifically we can't expect the NHS situation to improve under this government, and the next general election isn't until 2024.

Only benchmark for a global pandemic we have (and generally it’s not within living memory) is Spanish flu.  It raged initially over a period of c2-3 years over 4 distinct waves.  It wasn’t ‘cured’ as such but arrived, done its thing (c50-100m dead) and then faded.  Of course there were no vaccines etc back then.