Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2020-21

[Hij]

True but in terms of the model that means they should be games they'll want to be winning if they want to be in the title race.

Bobby's goal essentially worth 3 in the real table and 3 in this (because of Spurs proximity to us currently and we gained two on both while Spurs dropped one).

[Prof]

Arsenals line 

I couldn't keep extending the Y axis for that!

I had them marked down as one of the teams to watch this season too.

[KurtVerbose]

I couldn't keep extending the Y axis for that!

I had them marked down as one of the teams to watch this season too.

Maybe you could join the APLT and the alternative premier league relegation table, so as you fall from the former you enter the later?

[markthescouser]

Maybe you could join the APLT and the alternative premier league relegation table, so as you fall from the former you enter the later?

Hahaha, can just imagine that yellow line falling out of the bottom of the APLT and then appearing out of the sky in the relegation table

[farawayred]

Hahaha, can just imagine that yellow line falling out of the bottom of the APLT and then appearing out of the sky in the relegation table

That's what killed the dinosaurs...

[Tobez]

That's what killed the dinosaurs...

Gunnersaurus?!

[Prof]

[Angelius]

Not to laugh at someone else's misery (okay, a little bit) but the graph basically shows Arsenal has exited the game 3 match days ago

[Willy Poolman]

I love the way the APLT thread gives me a different view of the league progress. The tables above show that Arsenal have lost the same number of away points as the Reds. On the other hand, we have not dropped a point at home. Start picking up a few away three-pointers away now!

[Willy Poolman]

Utd, on the other hand, have dropped two more points at home than have Liverpool away. They have not dropped any away from home. Time for regression to the mean to kick in perhaps? We should see a few new red cells in their table over the next few away games - they were lucky not to have added a few this time around.

[farawayred]

Prof, why is the yellow line ending on platform 9 3/4? Weird magic that...

[Prof]

Prof, why is the yellow line ending on platform 9 3/4? Weird magic that...

That's a great spot 

I did wonder where they'd disappeared to.  Clearly we now know they're in Hogwarts.

[actwithoutwords]

4 games - 0 wins away from home against teams in the bottom half last year is definitely cause for concern. We have a lot of top half away games to come.

[killer-heels]

4 games - 0 wins away from home against teams in the bottom half last year is definitely cause for concern. We have a lot of top half away games to come.

Funnily enough those have been our best performances at Chelsea and Everton.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

The topsy turvy season continues with the only consistency being the lack of any consistency.  Well, except for Arsenal, but they are consistent in a very bad way.

[Brian Blessed]

No joke! 2 points in their last five games, grim. 52 in their last 38, and Everton away next.

[Dull Tools]

The topsy turvy season continues with the only consistency being the lack of any consistency.  Well, except for Arsenal, but they are consistent in a very bad way.

Based on this it looks like we are trending towards 80-85. We were perfect in the first 13 games there picking up 39 points. At the moment we are on about 2 points per game, so you expect 10 or so less than the 90 we are showing there unless our form picks up.

[Brian Blessed]

I took a look at 538, and it's league and CL predictions are laughable. Not just for us, but others. For example, they have Spurs at a lower percentage to get top four than Chelsea. There is absolutely nothing so far to suggest that is realistic.

The point is, the APLT is so much better

[PoetryInMotion]

I took a look at 538, and it's league and CL predictions are laughable. Not just for us, but others. For example, they have Spurs at a lower percentage to get top four than Chelsea. There is absolutely nothing so far to suggest that is realistic.

The point is, the APLT is so much better

Their model is based on an index similar to xG. Spurs are overachieving wrt xG, and their model hasn't picked up on it. Also, I think it takes the previous season(s) into account as well.

[Avens]

I took a look at 538, and it's league and CL predictions are laughable. Not just for us, but others. For example, they have Spurs at a lower percentage to get top four than Chelsea. There is absolutely nothing so far to suggest that is realistic.

The point is, the APLT is so much better

Man City at 46% to win the league compared to our 29%

[BoRed]

I took a look at 538, and it's league and CL predictions are laughable. Not just for us, but others. For example, they have Spurs at a lower percentage to get top four than Chelsea. There is absolutely nothing so far to suggest that is realistic.

The point is, the APLT is so much better

To be fair to 538, their model is predictive, while APLT is descriptive. APLT tells us where we all are at the moment, but if you use it for predictive purposes, then you have to assume that all teams will continue to perform as they have been so far. Predictive models take into account the fact that some, like Spurs, are unlikely to do so.

APLT has Spurs on top, but if 538 had Spurs as favourites for the title, that would be even more laughable.

[Knight]

It’s actually really nice to know we can afford to draw games. The relentless brilliance of us and city for the last few years is exhausting when you know you have to win.

[latortuga]

To be fair to 538, their model is predictive, while APLT is descriptive. APLT tells us where we all are at the moment, but if you use it for predictive purposes, then you have to assume that all teams will continue to perform as they have been so far. Predictive models take into account the fact that some, like Spurs, are unlikely to do so.

APLT has Spurs on top, but if 538 had Spurs as favourites for the title, that would be even more laughable.

Not really. 

If 538's model was predictive it wouldn't have Man City as clear favourites for the title when all bookmakers have us as clear favourites. 

Like Poetryinmotion references, their model seems to solely work off xG without considering that not only has City's xG dropped this season their conversion rate has taken a dive from 14% to 9%.  Sure you could just ignore that stat and assume like 538 are doing that at some point it will regress back to the mean, but this season isn't exactly a normal season and other leagues have demonstrated that COVID trends can last a whole season.

[JC the Messiah]

First showing of this graph this season.  Sheffield Utd making it look untidy as they haven't got enough points yet for the formatting. 

[JC the Messiah]

and the accompanying ladder.

[JC the Messiah]

and the 'expected totals' (based on current PPG), as well as current and maximum possible totals.

[Blinis]

I took a look at 538, and it's league and CL predictions are laughable. Not just for us, but others. For example, they have Spurs at a lower percentage to get top four than Chelsea. There is absolutely nothing so far to suggest that is realistic.

The point is, the APLT is so much better

Simple models you understand are always better than complicated models you don't get. It's as easy as this. That's the beauty of the APLT, and the secret of its longevity. The Monte-Carlo models are fancy, but even their designers do not understand them. To me, they are more of less sophisticated form tables.

The best competition to the APLT is http://clubelo.com/, which is very different, but very good as well. I use both to have an idea of where the LFC is at the moment (clubelo) and the APLT to have a more forward-looking approach (how tough is the rest of the season?).

[farawayred]

Simple models you understand are always better than complicated models you don't get. It's as easy as this. That's the beauty of the APLT, and the secret of its longevity. The Monte-Carlo models are fancy, but even their designers do not understand them. To me, they are more of less sophisticated form tables.

The best competition to the APLT is http://clubelo.com/, which is very different, but very good as well. I use both to have an idea of where the LFC is at the moment (clubelo) and the APLT to have a more forward-looking approach (how tough is the rest of the season?).

All models have deficiencies. I like this one :
https://www.euroclubindex.com/league-odds/

It's quite accurate if the clubs performance doesn't change much. But it won't catch a new manager turning fortunes (up or down), major squad replacement a la Chelsea or City when their new owners got a hold of the clubs. It didn't see us as a title contenders for until two years ago, and even when we were leading the pack and were clear favorites, and we would have won it (had we not drawn with Leicester and West Ham at home). It probably underrates Spurs now and possible United, because they are seen as "punching above their weight", but that "weight" is from combined years ago.

[Mark Walters]

The topsy turvy season continues with the only consistency being the lack of any consistency.  Well, except for Arsenal, but they are consistent in a very bad way.

How do I interpret this graph.  It makes no sense to me!

[dudleyred]

How do I interpret this graph.  It makes no sense to me!

Its a rolling 38 game points total. So the bottom block in each column is the last 5 games. Each block is then the later 5 games. The top block is the 36-38th game.

For us that means 90 points in last 38 games

Think that's right anyway!

[Dr Stu-Pid]

How do I interpret this graph.  It makes no sense to me!

It's the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 11 points from our last 5 games, 8 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc.

[Prof]

[Red Beret]

Poor old Spurs. 

[farawayred]

Spuds are doing Arse but 5 weeks delayed...

[latortuga]

xG ain't all that by Mikel Arteta  ...

Last year against Everton we had 25% chance to win and we won. Last weekend we had 67% chance of winning and 9% of losing and we lost. 3% against Burnley we lose, 7% against Spurs we lose.

[Mark Walters]

Its a rolling 38 game points total. So the bottom block in each column is the last 5 games. Each block is then the later 5 games. The top block is the 36-38th game.

For us that means 90 points in last 38 games

Think that's right anyway!

Ah. I see.  Thanks for the explanation.  Makes perfect sense now.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

<sub>This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 11 points from our last 5 games, 11 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc</sub>

Notes from the latest round of games:

 - Man Utd are now only one point behind Man City over the last 38 games (75 vs 76)
 - In order to keep our 38 game points total above 90 we'll need to win our next 13 games in a row
 - Our current run of games at 90+ is 58 games.  The previous best in PL history is Chelsea on 45 and then City on 42
 - Arsenal are not a good football team

[actwithoutwords]

Six teams within two points!

[Brian Blessed]

On course for a sub 80 points championing the APLT, which is bizarre after the last few seasons.

[Suareznumber7]

Six teams within two points!

And then there's Arsenal