Topic: A change in Venezuela?

[Indomitable_Carp]

yup, not quite genocide happening but not exactly better

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/06/venezuela-faes-special-forces-nicolas-maduro-barrios

And now there is this

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/06/venezuelan-troops-blockade-bridge-to-stop-aid-from-colombia

Oh and I’m not arguing with many foreign interests wanting a finger in the oil wells etc, but the current regime have also played a hand in this, mentioned it a while ago but one to look out for

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-goldman/amid-venezuela-default-goldman-receives-hunger-bond-payment-sources-idUSKBN1HH36H

Yeah it's really fucked

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Yeah it's really fucked

as bad as it sounds in hindsight had the US got their way in 2002 the situation would probably be a hell of a lot better the last few years and there wouldn’t be the ridiculous levels of poverty

[Indomitable_Carp]

the sanctions at the time were on government officials and non oil industries (<10% of the governments revenues)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-47104508

It is true that sanctions have only last week started directly targeting the oil industry. But even beforehand they certainly did not help alleviate Venezuela's economic situation, and may well have directly contributed to it

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/venezuela-un-expert-analyses-the-economic-embargo-situation-and-the-socio-economic-crisis



https://venezuelablog.org/crude-realities-understanding-venezuelas-economic-collapse/

It is striking that the second change in trend in Venezuela’s production numbers occurs at the time at which the United States decided to impose financial sanctions on Venezuela.  Executive Order 13.808, issued on August 25 of 2017, barred U.S. persons from providing new financing to the Venezuelan government or PDVSA.  Although the order carved out allowances for commercial credit of less than 90 days, it stopped the country from issuing new debt or selling previously issued debt currently in its possession.

The Executive Order is part of a broader process of what one could term the “toxification” of financial dealings with Venezuela.  During 2017, it became increasingly clear that institutions who decided to enter into financial arrangements with Venezuela would have to be willing to pay high reputational and regulatory costs.  This was partly the result of a strategic decision by the Venezuelan opposition, in itself a response to the growing authoritarianism of the Maduro government.

The toxification of Venezuelan financing was much more of a discontinuous than a gradual process.  As late as October 2016, Credit Suisse had structured a bond exchange without raising many eyebrows.  At the time, the opposition-controlled National Assembly passed a resolution which criticized the economics of the arrangement but did not question its legality.

Six months later, the President of the National Assembly was writing letters to international banks warning them that if they lent money to Venezuela they would be not only violating Venezuelan law but favoring a government that was recognized as dictatorial by the international community.[5]  When Goldman Sachs Asset Management purchased $2.8bn of bonds in May from the Venezuelan government through an intermediary, angry Venezuelans gathered to protest outside its New York office and the opposition vowed not to pay the bonds if it reached power. By the time that sanctions were approved in August, Venezuela had all but lost access to international financial markets as a result of the combination of continued poor policies and the toxification of its finance.

None of the foregoing is intended to exculpate the Maduro administration for its atrocious mismanagement of the economy during the past six years.  In my view, it is a settled case that Venezuelans are much worse off today than they would have been under saner economic policies. The government’s decisions not to correct the huge real exchange rate and other relative price misalignments, to maintain expensive fuel subsidies while monetizing a double-digit budget deficit, and to persecute the private sector for responding to relative price signals all contributed to making Venezuelans’ lives miserable under Maduro.

But claiming that Maduro’s economic policies have caused a deterioration of living standards in Venezuela is not at odds with accepting the possibility that economic sanctions may have made things even worse. Most phenomena in social sciences have multiple causes. There is no logical reason why Maduro’s incompetence and misguided sanctions cannot both have contributed to the collapse in Venezuelans’ living standards.

And an article on the general (lack of) effectiveness of economic sanctions for political ends and their humanitarian consequences

https://www.brookings.edu/research/economic-sanctions-too-much-of-a-bad-thing/

[Lady_brandybuck]

Again, that is not a defence of Maduro. But it does pay to at least maintain some kind of balance.

Fuck Balance and fuck Maduro.

When you have people looking into bags of trash to get something to eat, or people dying of diseases that can be easily cured, or chronic patients who just can't find treatment and are dying from this, you wouldn't give a toss about balance.

[No666]

Fuck Balance and fuck Maduro.

When you have people looking into bags of trash to get something to eat, or people dying of diseases that can be easily cured, or chronic patients who just can't find treatment and are dying from this, you wouldn't give a toss about balance.

Well said. The Venezuelan I Skype with actively wants foreign intervention to end the hell.

[JLStretton]

When you have people looking into bags of trash to get something to eat, or people dying of diseases that can be easily cured, or chronic patients who just can't find treatment and are dying from this, you wouldn't give a toss about balance.

Welcome to the UK!!!!!

[Yorkykopite]

It is true that sanctions have only last week started directly targeting the oil industry. But even beforehand they certainly did not help alleviate Venezuela's economic situation, and may well have directly contributed to it

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/venezuela-un-expert-analyses-the-economic-embargo-situation-and-the-socio-economic-crisis

That is an extraordinarily thin piece of work. No wonder it was denied publication. Although the "essay" purports to be about Venezuela most of it is concerned with American crimes in Allende's Chile in the early 1970s and the failures of the Venezuelan private sector before Chavez. There's some nitpicking over the term "humanitarian crisis", considerable blame-shifting on to the United States and "sabotage" by "international mafias", and a call for more seed to be imported so that Maduro can "diversify" the Venezuelan economy.

It's frankly laughable - or would be if the crimes of the Venezuelan government and their dire consequences on the people weren't so massive.

[Libertine]

Far left protests outside the Bank of England against the freezing of Venezuela's gold reserves



https://twitter.com/ToubeDavid/status/1093494183313240065


No Cuba flag, strangely.....

[Lush is the best medicine...]

There’s a Palestine one though, and as usual it’s a bunch of white people there protesting, not a single Latin looking person there

And a yellow vester too!

[Indomitable_Carp]

Fuck Balance and fuck Maduro.

When you have people looking into bags of trash to get something to eat, or people dying of diseases that can be easily cured, or chronic patients who just can't find treatment and are dying from this, you wouldn't give a toss about balance.

Like I said before:

Of course, this does not trump immediate concerns of wanting food on the table, some semblance of order and a wage that doesn't turn to nothing within the space of a week.

But if you come onto discussion thread on Venezuela then you can't be surprised when there is discussion. Fuck Maduro is something I think most people would be on board with. Unfortunately it is not a solution.

That is an extraordinarily thin piece of work. No wonder it was denied publication. Although the "essay" purports to be about Venezuela most of it is concerned with American crimes in Allende's Chile in the early 1970s and the failures of the Venezuelan private sector before Chavez. There's some nitpicking over the term "humanitarian crisis", considerable blame-shifting on to the United States and "sabotage" by "international mafias", and a call for more seed to be imported so that Maduro can "diversify" the Venezuelan economy.

It's frankly laughable - or would be if the crimes of the Venezuelan government and their dire consequences on the people weren't so massive.

The quote was from the very long (and very detailed) economic analysis of Venezuela's situation.

Well said. The Venezuelan I Skype with actively wants foreign intervention to end the hell.

I've heard differing opinions. The Venezuelan I've spoken to most about this issue who lives/works in Barcelona and sends money home to his mother (more or less his whole family are still back there - he said he was very lucky to have the means to get out at all) says the last thing he wants is any kind of war. The other Venezuelan who I spoke to on the issue has literally no one left in the country, friends or family, and his stance was more along the lines you just said.

[Yorkykopite]

The quote was from the very long (and very detailed) economic analysis of Venezuela's situation.

You provided two links. I was referring to the first from Alfred de Zayas which is a whitewash job and contains virtually no research into what has happened over the past 20 years to the Venezuelan economy.

The other link at least has the merit of agreeing that the prime responsibility for the economic meltdown lies with the "insane" economic policies of Chavez and Maduro, although it clearly overestimates the effect on the economy of Obama's targetted sanctions on individuals in the Chavez/Maduro regime.

[Indomitable_Carp]

You provided two links. I was referring to the first from Alfred de Zayas which is a whitewash job and contains virtually no research into what has happened over the past 20 years to the Venezuelan economy.

Apologies. Didn't even realise I had posted that.

The other link at least has the merit of agreeing that the prime responsibility for the economic meltdown lies with the "insane" economic policies of Chavez and Maduro, although it clearly overestimates the effect on the economy of Obama's targetted sanctions on individuals in the Chavez/Maduro regime.

Well it leaves it up in the air to the exact extent that sanctions contributed to the crisis but shows a strong probability of it negatively impacting the economy, but either way it is certainly something worth considering if the main goal is to relieve Venezuela of its current humanitarian crisis.


I guess the main point I am trying to make is, what is the main goal of the international community right now? Is it the removal of Maduro in the hope of bringing about a return to democracy? Or is it helping end the humanitarian crisis? They are obviously intrinsically interlinked problems. However where the international community puts its emphasis decides the course of action. If the emphasis is on the former, then what options does that leave the international community if he refuses to give up power? And where does that leave the Venezuelan people? Will further sanctions actually bring about the removal of Maduro, or will they just further inflame the already dire humanitarian situation? What's the next step if sanctions don't work? Are we talking, as some suggest, a military intervention?

[24/7]

It's this simple. You cannot and will not solve the humanitarian crisis as long as Maduro is literally calling the shots. Yes they're intrinsically linked but this is no chicken or egg scenario. Maduro has demonstrated ocnsistently that he doesn't give a fuck about the humanitarian crisis and he'd rather have civil war than relinquish power.

[No666]

I've heard differing opinions. The Venezuelan I've spoken to most about this issue who lives/works in Barcelona and sends money home to his mother (more or less his whole family are still back there - he said he was very lucky to have the means to get out at all) says the last thing he wants is any kind of war. The other Venezuelan who I spoke to on the issue has literally no one left in the country, friends or family, and his stance was more along the lines you just said.

I'm sure no Venezuelan, or any sane human, proactively seeks war; rather since last year this person has been expressing a wish for the sort of two-pronged approach - sanctions and aid - we're seeing implemented now, and previously a feeling that the people of Venezuela were forgotten.

[Lady_brandybuck]

Far left protests outside the Bank of England against the freezing of Venezuela's gold reserves



https://twitter.com/ToubeDavid/status/1093494183313240065


No Cuba flag, strangely.....

Fuckwits everywhere

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Fuckwits everywhere

like Chris Williamson

[Lady_brandybuck]

But if you come onto discussion thread on Venezuela then you can't be surprised when there is discussion. Fuck Maduro is something I think most people would be on board with. Unfortunately it is not a solution.

Oh thanks, I think I have a tiny bit of a clue about what's going on in Venezuela and there is a reason why I answer the way I do about Maduro and his government.

[TepidT2O]

Oh thanks, I think I have a tiny bit of a clue about what's going on in Venezuela and there is a reason why I answer the way I do about Maduro and his government.

All I can do is hope for the best for your country.

It’s been dealt the worst of blows recently.  An honest and proud people needs a government that can govern effectively.

[24/7]

Oh thanks, I think I have a tiny bit of a clue about what's going on in Venezuela and there is a reason why I answer the way I do about Maduro and his government.

Boom.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Oh thanks, I think I have a tiny bit of a clue about what's going on in Venezuela and there is a reason why I answer the way I do about Maduro and his government.

That's fine. Call it as you please. Obviously you have a much better idea then I do. I can only go by what I read and from talking to the Venzeulan friends of my South American other-half. I don't mean to be disrespectful. I do hold have an interest in trying to inform myself on international affairs away from simplified media narratives (which is all we tend to get over here) when the policy outcomes of those narratives have proven so counter-productive or even outright destructive in the past. I am no Corbyn-style knee jerk defender of socialist tyrants.
 
What do you think should happen now (a genuine question because I would like to know the opinion of someone from there)? And how far would you as a Venzeulan want the international community to go in toppling Maduro?

[Lady_brandybuck]

That's fine. Call it as you please. Obviously you have a much better idea then I do. I can only go by what I read and from talking to the Venzeulan friends of my South American other-half. I don't mean to be disrespectful. I do hold have an interest in trying to inform myself on international affairs away from simplified media narratives (which is all we tend to get over here) when the policy outcomes of those narratives have proven so counter-productive or even outright destructive in the past. I am no Corbyn-style knee jerk defender of socialist tyrants.
 
What do you think should happen now (a genuine question because I would like to know the opinion of someone from there)? And how far would you as a Venzeulan want the international community to go in toppling Maduro?

What should happen? Maduro out as he's encroached in the government unlawfully, transition government and free elections like every other Venezuelan.

Toppling Maduro using force? only and only if the is definitely no other way. In the meantime, let us try to do it in a non violent way and deal with it.

[Lady_brandybuck]

Donate lads

https://www.venezuelaaidlive.com/

Please! every bit of money counts to bring humanitarian aid for those who need it the most.


YNWA

[oldfordie]

It is true that sanctions have only last week started directly targeting the oil industry. But even beforehand they certainly did not help alleviate Venezuela's economic situation, and may well have directly contributed to it

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/venezuela-un-expert-analyses-the-economic-embargo-situation-and-the-socio-economic-crisis


https://venezuelablog.org/crude-realities-understanding-venezuelas-economic-collapse/



And an article on the general (lack of) effectiveness of economic sanctions for political ends and their humanitarian consequences

https://www.brookings.edu/research/economic-sanctions-too-much-of-a-bad-thing/

Worth watching Ken Livingston ripped apart by Andrew Neil. the denial by Livingston is incredible to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUG2gZGTSmU

[TepidT2O]

Donate lads

https://www.venezuelaaidlive.com/

Please! every bit of money counts to bring humanitarian aid for those who need it the most.


YNWA

Kat.  Many from the left wing in Britain are saying that there is no food shortage and that the people are blocking the convoy themselves.

Could you give people an update on the actual situation rather than these lies?

Thanks

[Lady_brandybuck]

Kat.  Many from the left wing in Britain are saying that there is no food shortage and that the people are blocking the convoy themselves.

Could you give people an update on the actual situation rather than these lies?

Thanks

Of course there are food shortages and whatever may exist in the markets shelves is only one brand at exorbitant prices that can't be covered by most of the people.

People aren't blocking the convoys, most of the people who are on their way to the border to help bring in the aid have encountered roadblocks from the military. An example today are the indigenous populations near the border with Brasil who were attacked by military forces when they refused and tried to repel the military from blocking the border like they did with one of the border bridges with Colombia.

I saw the video from Livingstone and is pathetic, but the answer is there, they are being fed information directly from the Venezuelan government with their propaganda machine. It is ridiculous.

Just yesterday I got news that the father of one of my childhood friend passed away because of cancer. He couldn't be treated on time with the appropriate medication because it's impossible to find in Venezuela and they couldn't get enough on time either through the gofundme page they set. Like that, many more people die waiting for medication and attention while the government keeps the borders closed and prevents aid from arriving.

[24/7]

An exampl today are the indigenous populations near the border with Brasil who were attacked by military forces when they refused and tried to repel the military from blocking the border like they did with one of the border bridges with Colombia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47329806

Also, opinion piece on whether aid will be a real help or a trojan horse:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47328505

Finally, a piece that shows the situation in 9 graphics - pretty stark stuff.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46999668

[TepidT2O]

Thanks all.

Depressing and heartbreaking.

[scatman]

Donate lads

https://www.venezuelaaidlive.com/

Please! every bit of money counts to bring humanitarian aid for those who need it the most.


YNWA

Done

[kavah]

Is this the end for Maduro, he’s not going easy it seems - ordering his militia onto the streets.
Russia admit they have trainers on the ground there*.

 What a shit show
* on cnn just now
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/world/americas/venezuela-crisis.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Is this the end for Maduro, he’s not going easy it seems - ordering his militia onto the streets.
Russia admit they have trainers on the ground there*.

 What a shit show
* on cnn just now
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/world/americas/venezuela-crisis.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

They did the same (running people over) when trying to jump the border month or two back,horrible c*nts.

[Alan_X]

Worth watching Ken Livingston ripped apart by Andrew Neil. the denial by Livingston is incredible to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUG2gZGTSmU

He's a joke.

[kavah]

They did the same (running people over) when trying to jump the border month or two back,horrible c*nts.

Yea - I took that link out, it's the other one on the NYT's front page - I couldn't bear to watch

[WhereAngelsPlay]

And the clowns expect people to take them at their word.


Venezuela crisis: Maduro aides agreed he had to go, US says

US National Security Advisor John Bolton offered no evidence that Mr Maduro's loyalists were preparing to abandon him. The assertions were later repeated by Elliott Abrams, the US envoy for Venezuela.

Later, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo alleged Mr Maduro had been prepared to leave the country on Tuesday and fly to Cuba but was talked down by Russia. He also has offered no evidence of the claim.

"They had an airplane on the tarmac. He was ready to leave this morning, as we understand it. Russians indicated he should stay," Mr Pompeo told broadcaster CNN.

Venezuela's Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino appeared on television surrounded by soldiers on Tuesday, asserting their continued loyalty to Mr Maduro.

However, according to the Mr Bolton, Mr Padrino was one of the men involved in three months of negotiations with the opposition.

Bolton has also either outed or just signed Padrinos death warrant & maybe both.We don't know though because nobody is ever going to believe a fucking word the c*nts say.

[rafathegaffa83]

Bolton has also either outed or just signed Padrinos death warrant & maybe both.We don't know though because nobody is ever going to believe a fucking word the c*nts say.

This and his antics with Iran demonstrate that he is an individual who should be nowhere near his position or any role that could influence it

[Indomitable_Carp]

The whole thing has been a clear publicity stunt. There was never any coup. But the worst thing about it is they have tried to get ordinary Venezuelans out on the street to support this 'coup' knowing full well it has the potential to get them killed.

[kavah]

U.N. release scathing critique of President Maduro’s embattled government and its handling of Venezuela’s deepening political and economic crisis.. More than 9,00 executed. Thousands tortured, home invasions and abuse rife

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/04/world/americas/venezuela-police-abuses.html

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

Andres Antonio Fernandez is a lucky man currently back in Brazil. He had already lost his inheritance of gold mines after Maduro took control of them. Now, five men under orders from Maduro attempted to inject him with an syringe, shoot him in the leg, wrestled him into a truck, and then tried to escape to the border. The truck ended up stuck in the mud and villagers from Venezuela and Brazil safely returned him.

Video shows Maduro’s men kidnapping a Venezuelan businessman in Brazil

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article247203754.html

“They have orders to take dead or alive people that have been taking actions against that government,” a person close to Fernández told el Nuevo Herald on condition of anonymity. In this case, “they were unable to take him away because the community of Santa Elena de Uairén,” on the Venezuelan side of the border, “came out to save him when the truck got stuck” in the dirt.

[classycarra]

seems like Maduro's dictatorship are well underway with their plans to invade and subjugate part of Guyana, to capture and claim their oil supplies. Textbook imperialism, and also very much in keeping with the dictatorship manual (not dissimilar to react to mass unpopularity with a bit of an invasion and a resource grab - see also Saddam invading Kuwait and the Argentinian Junta invading the Fawklands)

With a bit of luck, this effort will have a similar effect on the Venezuelan dictatorship as it did the Argentinian, and can start a domino effect that helps democracy return to Venezuela after so long.

Thankfully Brazil haven't closed their eyes to this, like most of the rest of the world have - hopefully their military presence can reduce the risk of invasion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67645018

Other reading:
Venezuela raises stakes in dispute with Guyana over oil riches
https://www.ft.com/content/d0d2b61f-4e29-4211-80ba-820e0e290abf

[TepidT2O]

I’m sure all the high profile fans of Maduro will come out to condemn this imperialism

(Of course they won’t, they will either blame the US or say they had a legacy right to the lands).

[Yorkykopite]

It's never imperialism when your mates do it.