Interesting analysis. You've moved me over from the glass is half empty to the glass is half full camp.
Re-did my math mate, and I've moved back to glass half-empty camp in terms of the title. Previously, I didn't see the City side of it, I was only looking at our fixtures. Don't want to move you back, but let me explain.
The thing is that my points stand regarding our fixture list, but let's consider a worst case scenario. Out of those 3 Top Half Away games, there is a possibility of drawing one and losing one. And among the 4 Bottom Half Away games, we may draw 1. That's 7 points dropped. Among the 9 Home games, let's say we draw to 2 of Man United, Spurs, West Ham or Wolves (hopefully we'll beat the other five). That's 4 more points dropped. That's 11 points dropped. I said worst case, so I'll give a buffer of one more draw. So, if we drop 13 points, we land up at 83 points (current maximum 96-13=83).
Now let's consider our best case. We somehow manage to win all our 9 Home games bar 1, where we drop 2 points and we win all the 4 Bottom Half Away games. We draw against one of the Top Half Away teams. So, 4 points dropped in total, which gets us to 92 points.
So, there's a likely chance of us landing anywhere from 83 to 92 points.
Now, let's come to City. City have to drop points in at least 4 more games to go below our best case of 92 points. It could be either 4 losses, or 3 losses and 1 draw or 2 losses and 2 draws (this will put us both on par in terms of points and will need GD to separate us). Will City drop points in 4 or more games?
They've already played Chelsea twice. They have Spurs and Man United at Home. Can any of those two manage to take points off City - tough to say. The other decent games to watch are Away to Palace, Home to Brighton and Away to Wolves. West Ham Away is an outside chance. But it's not clear that they will drop points to these teams. That's only 6 games out of their next 14 fixtures (excluding their game with us) where there is even a remote possibility.
That means, our game against City is a must win. Unfortunately, since 2017-18, City have never dropped points to us twice in the League in the same season. They have exactly dropped points to us in one game in each season and they've already dropped points to us earlier this season. So, if we do take points off them in our Head to Head game, then it will be the first season since 2016-17, where we will manage to take points off City in both league games.
Looks like we are up against it.
Of course, we should keep trying to win our games and see what happens.