Topic: RAWK Round Table SCFC 3-5 LFC

[Dougle]

It's nice to feel like points against the dross are increasingly 'bankers' though, and not just that but we're juuuust starting to build an aura about us that is going a long way towards beating teams before we even get onto the pitch. Suarez' first goal had a bit of that about it, just panic in their defence from his mere presence, and a kind of ultimate doom when Sturridge came on too, a kind of 'as if we didn't have enough to deal with...'

Great stuff and as others have said another barrier perhaps broken.

I think that is a really good point. Maybe that is why (or part of the reason why) Brendan has kept with the same team when we were winning games very well e.g Norwich and not subbed players off. If teams feel they are gonna get mullered if we get a couple of goals in front then it makes games easier to administer when we do get there. I think Neil from the Anfield Wrap was saying as much about the Hull game. When we got to 2-0 they just took it.

[houkura]

That's not strictly true though (although it's not far off being true). In the last 10 years, the winning team has only had the best defensive record 6 out of the 10 years, so only slightly more than half. Of the remaining 4 years, the best defensive record team has been seen to have finished as low as fourth. It's important, but the more telling statistic is that the winning team has conceded no more than a goal per game over the course of the season, and often just less than that (0.84 goals per game on average). We're currently at 1.23 goals against per game, which is not title contender standard,  but on the other hand it is not too far off (the highest "goals against per game" for the league winners over the last ten years has been United in 2010-11 and 2012-13 with 0.97 goal against per game on average, and 1.13 goals against per game on average respectively). A few clean sheets against the lower teams would bring that figure closer to title-winning standard over the course of the season. On top of that, though, the league winners 8 out of 10 years have had the highest goalscoring total, so we know that the team is capable of attacking it's way into contention for the league. One on the right side, or a sustained injury-free period for one or both of Sakho and Agger, and we could rapidly reduce the goals against column which could swing us into serious title contenders - this season or next. Right now, it's worrisome, but not overly so. A small tweak to our circumstances could change our defensive fortunes dramatically. That's the beauty of our situation. We know the areas we need to improve in, and they don't need two sets of fingers to count them with. We're very, very close to being a very strong first 14, at least.

I would think ratio of scored:conceeded would be most relevant....

[houkura]

Anyone ever see a cage with a big snake and three little white mice in it? Me too. The poor little mice kinda stand there slightly shaking in anticipation of what's to come.... This is what is happening to defenders when Luis Suarez is on attack.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I would think ratio of scored:conceeded would be most relevant....

It is a good indicator, for sure. But my point was more about the emphasis on the lack of clean sheets. It's not as important as outscoring the opposition. If you win every game 2-1, you win the league, even though you'll probably have the 5th-7th best defence.

[CHOPPER]

They blew the wrong bloody Mcwhirter up.

[Mr_Shane]

Anyone ever see a cage with a big snake and three little white mice in it? Me too. The poor little mice kinda stand there slightly shaking in anticipation of what's to come.... This is what is happening to defenders when Luis Suarez is on attack.

Sturridge's goal reminded me of that too. they let him do whatever he wanted to do short of letting him walk it into the net

[mrantarctica]

That's not strictly true though (although it's not far off being true). In the last 10 years, the winning team has only had the best defensive record 6 out of the 10 years, so only slightly more than half. Of the remaining 4 years, the best defensive record team has been seen to have finished as low as fourth. It's important, but the more telling statistic is that the winning team has conceded no more than a goal per game over the course of the season, and often just less than that (0.84 goals per game on average). We're currently at 1.23 goals against per game, which is not title contender standard. One on the right side, or a sustained injury-free period for one or both of Sakho and Agger, and we could rapidly reduce the goals against column which could swing us into serious title contenders - this season or next. Right now, it's worrisome, but not overly so. A small tweak to our circumstances could change our defensive fortunes dramatically.

Indeed. In that context I think City are likely to win. They're the only team who've scored more, and not many teams have conceded less. That and their £200m squad. Our equation is simple enough I think. We need 26 wins. Most teams that get 26+ wins are close to contention for the title most years. Usually 28 wins seals the deal. That would require some extraordinary form to produce, however.

I think injuries have taken their toll. I think Skrtel is the only one that hasn't picked up any major knocks. Continually reshuffling your defence and midfield can't make it easy to develop and good defensive understanding and confidence between the players.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Indeed. In that context I think City are likely to win. They're the only team who've scored more, and not many teams have conceded less. That and their £200m squad. Our equation is simple enough I think. We need 26 wins. Most teams that get 26+ wins are close to contention for the title most years. Usually 28 wins seals the deal. That would require some extraordinary form to produce, however.

I think injuries have taken their toll. I think Skrtel is the only one that hasn't picked up any major knocks. Continually reshuffling your defence and midfield can't make it easy to develop and good defensive understanding and confidence between the players.

Good points.

[houkura]

It is a good indicator, for sure. But my point was more about the emphasis on the lack of clean sheets. It's not as important as outscoring the opposition. If you win every game 2-1, you win the league, even though you'll probably have the 5th-7th best defence.

Yeah-pretty much my feeling too. I think the goal concession "isssue" isn't as bad as it looks considering we are scoring buckets of goals and have a makeshift defence. The backline will become fit and we will settle on a back 4 before too long and then we will be a real menace.

[stockdam]

I would think ratio of scored:conceeded would be most relevant....

Me, I'd say that the team that gets most points wins the league..........that's the only statistic that counts.

[GrkStav]

Conceding goals is an issue to be considered as such, independently of how many goals we score.

True enough, if we're already up 5-0 and we concede one, we can basically just ignore it as totally immaterial.

On the other hand, up 0-2 and conceding two before HT is an issue, as such.

That's what analysis is about, it's not to belly-ache or to boast.

[stockdam]

Anyone ever see a cage with a big snake and three little white mice in it? Me too. The poor little mice kinda stand there slightly shaking in anticipation of what's to come.... This is what is happening to defenders when Luis Suarez is on attack.

I know that it won't win goal of the season but that goal just makes me smile. The way the defenders get intimidated by Suarez's presence is class. Suarez adjusts his position several times and the way he finishes off is sublime.........looks easy but a lot of players would have missed. It was just Luis in a nutshell.......brilliant, sheer brilliant.

[stockdam]

Anyone ever see a cage with a big snake and three little white mice in it? Me too. The poor little mice kinda stand there slightly shaking in anticipation of what's to come.... This is what is happening to defenders when Luis Suarez is on attack.

You can just "hear" him. "I'm going to get the ball, yes I am, I'll get the ball, ping.....told you".

[afc tukrish]

Alternatively, he was beaten to both balls but his persistence paid off. I think you're being a little kind, there.

Corky, I know you've already done, but take another look...

Do you see how, in the instant before both defenders plays the ball, Luis takes a deliberate step away, in the direction he anticipates the ball will be played?

I just think there is more than admirable persistence, which you acknowledged, at work, here. It's not so much that the defender has beaten Luis to the ball on both occasions but that rather he has made a split-second calculation of probabilities and acted accordingly. And he was right on both occasions.

I agree with those who laud Luis's intelligence. In a weird way, his incredible technique, vision, tactical awareness, balance and low centre of gravity, and simple work-rate aren't really his most impressive assets. It's that he takes advantage of all the above at warp speed. In a sense, he speed reads the game...

[Grand Chilli]

That's the beauty of our situation. We know the areas we need to improve in, and they don't need two sets of fingers to count them with. We're very, very close to being a very strong first 14, at least.

There's no doubt about that, and you can see it from the way we've played when everything clicks. How many more players are we going to need next season though, with the extra demands of CL? (I have to be optimistic, we'll never get a better chance to get back into it when you look at our lack of games and the managerial upheaval at so many of our rivals) We've had our fair share of injuries, but you could argue they could have been a lot worse in the way they've happened, at least in the attacking half of the field.

For anyone better-versed than me in the sports science/fitness side of things, will Suarez's ban at the start of the season help him keep a little fresher in the last few games, or is it neither here nor there 8 months later? (I should know this, having a sports-related phd, but I always tried to stick to the predictable equipment engineering side of things rather than the messy human aspects )

[PhaseOfPlay]

There's no doubt about that, and you can see it from the way we've played when everything clicks. How many more players are we going to need next season though, with the extra demands of CL? (I have to be optimistic, we'll never get a better chance to get back into it when you look at our lack of games and the managerial upheaval at so many of our rivals) We've had our fair share of injuries, but you could argue they could have been a lot worse in the way they've happened, at least in the attacking half of the field.

For anyone better-versed than me in the sports science/fitness side of things, will Suarez's ban at the start of the season help him keep a little fresher in the last few games, or is it neither here nor there 8 months later? (I should know this, having a sports-related phd, but I always tried to stick to the predictable equipment engineering side of things rather than the messy human aspects )

It helps a bit, but Suarez is such a specimen that it probably doesn't matter anyway Similarly, Sturridge's layoff could actually turn out to be beneficial for the run-in.

[DanA]

If you think about Torres who in the three years prior to the last world cup was constantly rushed back from injury, never having a break. It meant he limped into the world cup and developed some chronic knee issues which I suspect he still hasn't completely sorted out. But for Suarez these suspension breaks have given him the opportunity to get his body right and avoid these sorts of things. In saying that Suarez gets the shit kicked out of him on a weakly basis and that could easily mean by the end of the season he is carrying something. But as POP mentions he''s a specimen who to date has either been bomb proof or is mental and can play through injury like it's nothing, probably a bit of both. 

[Tony19:6]

Don't think individually there were many outstanding performances, from the team as a whole.

Sterling was defo fouled for the pen, as they say anywhere else on the pitch....I think Niall Quinn's expectations are that you need to be decapitated before you are given a spot kick, maybe that's what it says in the laws of the game?

All in all though 90% would have bitten your hand off for a 2 goal win at the Brittania on a cold and wet Sunday afternoon.

After being 'very unlucky' against City and 'with a bit of luck' against Chelsea, I think we deserved an average performance coupled with 3 points against Stoke RFU.

Onwards and upwards...

[somewhat]

RAWK was incredibly negative after the Chelsea game from some parts. PoP needed a bit of a break from that, as well as getting over a bad flu. I'll post on this later, but it probably won't be tactical. The goals conceded is of less importance than the goals scored. Watersheds and landmarks and all that.

It is nice to have you back. I really enjoyed reading your post.

[Danny_]

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x19l557_liverpool-vs-stoke-city-5-3_animals

Here are the hightlights in case anyone wants to watch it again.  Doesn't show much of the interesting stuff for analysis of our strengths/weaknesses but you get all the goals. 

First the good.  You can say we were lucky with that second goal and we were as it was atrocious defending but the speed at which Suarez closes on both defenders was also partially responsible.  You can almost see the panic in their eyes.  The 4th and 5th goals were just glorious also.  Sturridge disguises the pass for the 4th one so beautifully to give Suarez that extra moment to chose his spot and just another clinical finish.  The 5th goal was just as good.  Suarez pass and Sturridge finish and reactions to finish it off a second time was (hate to sound like Martinez) as good as it gets. 

Our attack is just frightening.  We have the 2nd best 'goals for' stat in the league and we'd be much closer to City but for a few 6-0 drubbings that they got (maybe against demoralized opposition).  There isn't much in it (if anything) between our attack and theirs.

Now, the bad.  We are weak on the flanks.  They were able to put 51 crosses in of which we intercepted 39.  I don't think it is down to merely the personnel although that is part of it.  I remember that Arsenal were able to tear us apart down the flanks in the first half.  For whatever reason, we seem to allow teams a lot of space on the wings and it is difficult for us to cut out the crosses.  That puts a lot of pressure on the CBs, especially when they are facing monster forwards. 

Some pundits were saying that the second was Henderson and Gerrard not being on the same wavelength.  I don't think that's true.  It's just a really shit pass by Henderson in a key area that opens the door.   Before he hits the pass, Gerrard has started his run forwards.  All Henderson has to do is put it in his path and there is actually a great break out on.  Maybe, Henderson is used to Lucas standing still but he has to improve his awareness. It's an individual error so you can't really blame the system.


The third goal comes from them breaking down our flank again (Glen Johnson's side again).  Gerrard ( I think it was) does miscontrol it to give them the break but we should have been able to deal with it.  It's a nice little cross into the box but we fail to get even close to cutting it out.  It is just all too easy to cut us open.  I think it was Toure that was ball watching in the centre.


Just before that, the chance for Walters where they throw the ball into our box and Crouch knocks it over to him to have a free header (almost in our 6 yard box) is just awful defending.  Neither of the CBs is close enough to Walters and when they try to close, it is too late.  But for a great save from Mignolet, that could have been 4-3. 

So, we have work to do.  One of the goals we conceded was down to a great finish and an individual mistake.  The other two, we could have and should have been able to stop.  As good as our attack is, it puts huge pressure on them if they go into a game thinking they need at least 2 or 3 to win the game.  I hope BR is able to put it right in training.  I'm sure that Henderson/Gerrard partnership will improve with time.  Maybe, they just need a few games.

[mercury]

Indeed. In that context I think City are likely to win. They're the only team who've scored more, and not many teams have conceded less. That and their £200m squad. Our equation is simple enough I think. We need 26 wins. Most teams that get 26+ wins are close to contention for the title most years. Usually 28 wins seals the deal. That would require some extraordinary form to produce, however.

I think injuries have taken their toll. I think Skrtel is the only one that hasn't picked up any major knocks. Continually reshuffling your defence and midfield can't make it easy to develop and good defensive understanding and confidence between the players.

Aye, re defence we definitely need to become more solid but there is no need to aim to be the best defensive team in PL.  More health in the backline will help, but I suspect a bit more stability in defence tactics and better coaching will be welcome.  It is evident that Rodgers is still experimenting quite a bit with the squad -- quite normal like, and the best thing about him is that he learns.

[woof]

It helps a bit, but Suarez is such a specimen that it probably doesn't matter anyway Similarly, Sturridge's layoff could actually turn out to be beneficial for the run-in.

Fingers crossed on Suarez. We've been blessed that he's been injury-free unlike RVP who's only had one very good season but that was the season that counted (you have to feel sorry for Arsenal then).

A player could have all the talent in the world but if his body is just not up to it, he's pretty much useless. Think of all the players who had the potential to be 'world class' but wasted on the bench due to crippling injuries.

[Something Awful]

The way I see it, defensively, is that our best defence is arguably Johnson/Agger/Sakho/Enrique. The first choice is probably Johnson/Skrtel/Sakho/Enrique. If we can get a run of four or five games with that unit all on the pitch, things will improve. Mignolet will be more confident, the left will be shored up (Enrique may not be perfect but I still rate him) and 51 crosses won't be an option, or at least a successful one.

The other side of the coin is that we look fucking lethal in attack. When Suarez moved here, I remember him being asked about his insane strike rate with Ajax vs the post/crossbar woes of the King's full season in charge. He said, roughly, that it was unsustainable, that he would take shots and they'd go in off four other players, or he'd deflect a cross with his ass and score. He has the ominous feel about him now, like whatever he does is going in. And it transfers across the team. Sturridge feels like if he gets the ball near the box he'll score. Sterling feels like he'll score. Freekicks and corners are a threat. The only exception is Coutinho, who I feel will break his bad spell with a worldy and go on a bit of a run.

I'm not saying we'll win the league, but in my opinion there's little to suggest we can't push the winners until the end. And in the closing stretch who knows? We have a young team with experience in the right positions. If we keep up the scoring rate, if we keep getting points from lower ranked teams...

[spider-neil]

It helps a bit, but Suarez is such a specimen that it probably doesn't matter anyway Similarly, Sturridge's layoff could actually turn out to be beneficial for the run-in.

Sturridge's layoff was beneficial to Sterling.

[rscanderlech]

The way I see it, defensively, is that our best defence is arguably Johnson/Agger/Sakho/Enrique. The first choice is probably Johnson/Skrtel/Sakho/Enrique. If we can get a run of four or five games with that unit all on the pitch, things will improve. Mignolet will be more confident, the left will be shored up (Enrique may not be perfect but I still rate him) and 51 crosses won't be an option, or at least a successful one.

The other side of the coin is that we look fucking lethal in attack. When Suarez moved here, I remember him being asked about his insane strike rate with Ajax vs the post/crossbar woes of the King's full season in charge. He said, roughly, that it was unsustainable, that he would take shots and they'd go in off four other players, or he'd deflect a cross with his ass and score. He has the ominous feel about him now, like whatever he does is going in. And it transfers across the team. Sturridge feels like if he gets the ball near the box he'll score. Sterling feels like he'll score. Freekicks and corners are a threat. The only exception is Coutinho, who I feel will break his bad spell with a worldy and go on a bit of a run.

I'm not saying we'll win the league, but in my opinion there's little to suggest we can't push the winners until the end. And in the closing stretch who knows? We have a young team with experience in the right positions. If we keep up the scoring rate, if we keep getting points from lower ranked teams...

On current form - and I mean no disrespect to any LFC players who might be going through a rough time - Flanagan may be put ahead of Johnson. But that's a small point.

I agree with the thing people used to say about some of Ferguson's United sides, that if you've got an attack that will always score goals, then even with weaknesses elsewhere (defence for us, of course), you can win the league. You just outscore the opponent. Liverpool are that team right now, and so are City. As long as Suarez stays fit, I can see us getting very close. Winning the title would require a number of other events to fall in our favour, but it's perfectly possible. If Suarez stays fit.

I also agree about the Coutinho thing. Eventually, it should 'click' psychologically.

Stoke was the perfect example of the team we need to beat and the relentless mentality that we need to be title challengers. At 2-2 at half time, I somehow just knew that we were going to score a couple more and win. It had a Ferguson United feel about it, for sure.

[The 5th Benitle]

Sturridge's layoff was beneficial to Sterling.

But Suarez scored from it 

[lamonti]

Alternatively, he was beaten to both balls but his persistence paid off. I think you're being a little kind, there.

I disagree, anticipating mistakes - or in fact, precipitating mistakes - has always been part of his game. It's pragmatism - he's not in a position to win either of those balls so he doesn't wasn't his time or energy going for either of those, he gambles on the error and by staying moving he's in a position to react suitably.

His always been a really astute reader of game situations. One of my favourite performances of his was in the 1/4 finals of the Copa America against Argentina when Diego Perez had been sent off very early on, he literally spent the entire game buying free-kicks by tempting the clutz Argie centre halves (Gabby Milito and A.N. Other) to foul him every time he took a ball in with his back to goal and eventually won the second yellow that got Mascherano sent off and made it 10-a-piece. He completely played the Argies that day, his behaviour was frustrating to the neutral but so wise for his team. He doesn't get into a physical battle he can't win. Obviously in the past he's taken to some fairly stupid manners of retribution for physical battles, but he seems to have eased that out of his game in the last 10 months and just concentrated on being more lethal. His finish for his second was made to look so so easy. It took a great lay-off from the Studge but it was one-touch passed into the net. Brilliant.

I think a lot of the criticism of the defence is unwarranted. I don't know how people are so critical of Toure not getting to Crouch for the first, who then scores the best goal he'll score all season. The fault was probably most with Suarez who is far too lax on Arnautovic, having got back with Glen. Adam's goal again everyone rushes to blame Skrtel, but it's Gerrard and Henderson in the midfield slipping/miscommunicating that causes the situation and the finish is just whopper. Again, will he score a better goal this season? Same with the third regarding Gerrard and Hendo with a Mignolet blooper reel moment thrown in for good measure.

I think back to some early defensive horror shows (West Brom away last season, Arsenal at home this season) and I seem big dissimilarities. When you concede three I think there seems to be a necessity to barrack your defence. The problems came from uncertainty prior to the defence. We probably are letting in too many crosses, but you've seen how eager Stoke are to throw them in from absolutely anywhere. Instead I saw quite a lot of clearing away from crosses all day. Perhaps I am being to easy on them?

I watched the match a second time after my initial viewing was kinda broken up and I was disappointed by the reaction on here to rag on the defence and the performance in general. Too many RAWKites I think are still hooked on the idea of some clinical Benitezian 'crushing-machine' style victory in my opinion and don't want to be dealing with the heartache of an 8-goal 'for the neutrals' thriller. Seems to me the way to win this league is all about attack. The last team to do otherwise was Ancelotti's Chelsea, and even they were spearheaded by a force-of-nature style striker in Drogba.

Also for the record, Sterling was fucking excellent. Some seem to be saying that he's 'bulked up' but I don't seem any drastic change, he was always strong for his size in my opinion. He's just had faith shown in him after Hull and his natural ability and the smart coaching Rodgers has put into him have paid off. Must say, I think his performance at Spurs obviously would have given him a huge lift. I don't think there are many fringe players who can be dropped into a team and perform straight away at their best, let alone 18-going-on-19 year old ones. The patience Rodgers has shown in the absence of the Studge has really payed off and strengthened the squad. It's probably part of the reason we're happy to be patient on the Salah move.

[Yorkykopite]

Anticipation and timing enabled Suarez to get that first goal. Rather than get engaged in a fruitless challenge with big defenders he guessed where they were about the put the ball. His timing was such that he didn't betray his intentions too soon or delay his move until it was too late. And he did it twice in the space of a couple of seconds. Of course both defenders were freaked out by his presence. That's because they've been watching Match of the Day for two years and fully understand that Suarez can cause chaos to a defence whenever he's near the ball.   

[Hank Scorpio]

Anticipation is one of his major strengths.  He just knows where the ball is going to fall.  He does it time after time in matches.  It's like he sees things a second before everyone else.  It's actually beautiful to witness.  The game has become so physical and about pace/speed that it's refreshing to see a top class player use old school footballing to his advantage.

[redtel]

Luis conned both giant CB's into thinking he could beat them to the ball. He knew he couldn't as he never jumped once but altered his runs to be ahead of the game so cleverly that he was ready to pounce when the slip up occurred.

The lack of a watertight defence is not an issue against most of this league.

However, we conceded two goals home and away to nearly all the top 5 or 6 last season. The result was we had a poor points return against them.

So far this season we have conceded two goals to the top three once again and three across the park.

We need to improve in the big games coming up at Anfield. Clean sheets may not be needed to get the three points but it may be asking a lot to score three. A full defensive squad to pick from would help Rodgers so lets hope they are all back soon.

[wah00ey]

I'm concerned though at this pushing Lucas further upfield to accommodate Stevie as the deepest lying midfielder.

I suspect this is because he sees his first choice midfield three being Stevie, Allen and Hendo.  Allen was not available against Stoke so he played Lucas further forward but against Villa I'll be surprised if Allen doesn't start with hendo as the AMs and SG as the DM.  Lucas will drop to the bench but provide cover for any of the midfield 3.