Topic: Hurricane Florence and 2018 Hurricane Season

[ericthered10]

It seems on the news that the focus is always on the windspeeds. Therevare always shots of people boarding up windows for the high winds.

Correct me if I am wrong because I’m no expert, but it seems that the storms are packing more water these days. When I think of the recent Hurricanes, the issue is flooding rathervthan winds. The exception being Maria.


And another question to those who seem to know a bit about Hurricanes, does the amount of water in the hurricane affect the windspeed?

In terms of lasting damage it's for sure the storm surges and flooding. With the winds I feel like it's less about windows and more about trees/limbs knocking out tons of power lines and dealing with days or weeks with no electricity.

[Giono]

In terms of lasting damage it's for sure the storm surges and flooding. With the winds I feel like it's less about windows and more about trees/limbs knocking out tons of power lines and dealing with days or weeks with no electricity.

The grid was definitely the problem with Maria. I was shocked that part of the US could be knocked out for so long with all the Experience the US has with Hurricanes. I’m surpised that with the size of the US military and all the other resources that there isn’t a quicker, more organised response.

I was teaching in Taiwan when Katrina hit. All my students were amazed that the country they look up to so much had such a poor response to a natural disaster (Typhoons) that the Taiwanese deal with regularly. The killer question from one of my students was an innocent and honest: “Where are all the white people”?

I guess I’m just surprised that the US aren’t pros at this. I understand that every storm is different and unpredictable. And I understand that some states’ govenments and citizens are more savy than others. But you’d think that on the federal level there should more expertise. Maybe I’m wrong and that my view from television coverage is simplistic.

Calling 3000 deaths a success is the cherry on top. How can that fill anyone with confidence who has to face a storm going forward?

[ericthered10]

Without even delving into politics which of course plays a role, Americans in general are not known for foreplanning or budgeting for the unforeseen.

[BER]

Without even delving into politics which of course plays a role, Americans in general are not known for foreplanning or budgeting for the unforeseen.

Makes you weep.

6 Years Ago, North Carolina Chose To Ignore Rising Sea Levels. This Week It Braces For Disaster.

[spen71]

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/atlantic-hurricanes-are-storms-getting-worse

Interesting and scary for the trend for hurricanes

[Johnny Foreigner]

going to florida next week; any effects there ?

[Lone Star Red]

going to florida next week; any effects there ?

Florida has over 8,000 miles of shoreline, where are you going specifically?

Only impacts might be around Jacksonville and the northeast portion of the state with some rip currents and windier than normal.

[soxfan]

I guess I’m just surprised that the US aren’t pros at this. I understand that every storm is different and unpredictable. And I understand that some states’ govenments and citizens are more savy than others. But you’d think that on the federal level there should more expertise. Maybe I’m wrong and that my view from television coverage is simplistic.

I'll give you a "small world" example. I live on the beach in New England. My cottage is on a slab, no basement, in a 30-year hurricane zone. They should require me to put my house on stilts, perhaps by offering a no-interest longterm loan to get it done. Nope. And of course I don't want to spend $50,000ish of my own money ASAP to get it done, so I'm not doing it. If a big hurricane hits here (god forbid as I plan to move in 2-3 years), my house is toast. But then FEMA will have to pay me over $200,000 to replace the structure. They could have protected 4 houses with that money.

Plus, there really shouldn't be any houses on my street at all due to the hurricane risk. Many were built 40-60 years ago when governments were more naive about storms so it's a bit late now to tear them all down. But since we've supposedly gotten smarter, about 5 new houses somehow got permits to be squeezed onto the beach in the last 15 years. Never should have been allowed. Theirs (& mine) will be destroyed sooner or later. But somebody paid somebody off and presto, new beach homes.

[Johnny Foreigner]

Florida has over 8,000 miles of shoreline, where are you going specifically?

Only impacts might be around Jacksonville and the northeast portion of the state with some rip currents and windier than normal.

little south of jacksonville, but it doesnt look too bad then ?

[Zeb]

There's still a lot of uncertainty with hurricanes because of all the variables at play. The most likely scenario at this stage is that the strong storms might be stronger but overall frequency might decline, but we have to take into account natural variability - there are periods where hurricane activity is high and those where it's low. Precipitation levels are expected to rise for a couple of reasons - a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and some models suggest that hurricanes will slow down as a result of climate change (there's some uncertainty there). In addition, we saw the role changes to the Jet Stream can play in the case of Harvey last year, where resulting blocking patterns (high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east of North America) meant Harvey had nowhere to go. In a similar way Florence has the potential to stall because of a high pressure system to the north of it according to a report I read. It really doesn't look good at the moment, not with the ground saturated in the areas likely to be affected.

Looking at Asia, typhoon Jebi was the strongest typhoon to hit Japan in 25 years. Tough year for Japan with the torrential rain and heatwaves they experienced this summer. And typhoon Mangkhut is forecast to hit the Philippines at the weekend, coinciding with monsoons so the risk of flooding is very high there with storm surge and possible landslides a concern. To make things worse it's harvest season there (rice and corn) so farmers are rushing to harvest their crops at a time when there's already rice shortages in the country.

Thanks Bio.

[wemmick]

Spectacular live video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

A hurricane at sea would be an insane experience.

[AndyInVA]

It will landfall tonight. Parts of NC waterfront are already flooded without any rain. That means the storm surge has lifted the water on to the Front street or street by the ocean. In particular New Bern , NC on the news earlier.

I'm on the NC< VA border about half way across and we expect rain and some wind at midnight tomorrow. I'm pretty thankful as 5 days out it was coming over my head. Sadly now SC will take a major pummeling.

The initial issue is the speed it will hit land. SLOW.

This means it will dump huge amounts of water on the first 30 miles of the coast, before supposedly picking up speed across SC and then back up into VA.

It will be hairy 48 hours for NC. I have a friend in New Bern who is sticking it out. Ive already seen the weather channel guy bent over trying to stand up in only 60 mph wind, never mind the predicted 80 mph or so later.

I am 250 miles from Wilmington and we are closing schools tomorrow. Seems an over reaction but then no one really knows what to expect as far as wind is concerned.

Probably a sound move. Every one else will be at work though.

[AndyInVA]

Spectacular live video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

A hurricane at sea would be an insane experience.

I saw that earlier. The sea looks fucking angry. Could not imagine being out in that.

[Chakan]

The people sticking it out baffle me. I mean seriously what is the point of staying there in the full force of the hurricane.

[kavah]

Spectacular live video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

the flag is shredded, the fella that put the pole up must be made up it's still standing!

[AndyInVA]

The people sticking it out baffle me. I mean seriously what is the point of staying there in the full force of the hurricane.

I think if you live in a brick house with a solid roof and you have no ailments and have weathered out hurricanes before it is probably quite an experience. I wouldnt mind being in a tall concrete hotel that can stand the wind and be above floods. Would probably be exciting.

[Chakan]

I think if you live in a brick house with a solid roof and you have no ailments and have weathered out hurricanes before it is probably quite an experience. I wouldnt mind being in a tall concrete hotel that can stand the wind and be above floods. Would probably be exciting.

Doesn’t sound all that fun to me. I mean there are certain dangers you can mitigate but putting yourself in harms way seems a bit off to me.

[Giono]

I'll give you a "small world" example. I live on the beach in New England. My cottage is on a slab, no basement, in a 30-year hurricane zone. They should require me to put my house on stilts, perhaps by offering a no-interest longterm loan to get it done. Nope. And of course I don't want to spend $50,000ish of my own money ASAP to get it done, so I'm not doing it. If a big hurricane hits here (god forbid as I plan to move in 2-3 years), my house is toast. But then FEMA will have to pay me over $200,000 to replace the structure. They could have protected 4 houses with that money.

Plus, there really shouldn't be any houses on my street at all due to the hurricane risk. Many were built 40-60 years ago when governments were more naive about storms so it's a bit late now to tear them all down. But since we've supposedly gotten smarter, about 5 new houses somehow got permits to be squeezed onto the beach in the last 15 years. Never should have been allowed. Theirs (& mine) will be destroyed sooner or later. But somebody paid somebody off and presto, new beach homes.

Thanks for that ground-level view. Why is it as time passes, the short-term view wins more and more.

I used to live in Halifax, Nova Scotia up the coast from you. We got hit by a hurricane that came off the Atlantic and hit the city square on. The coastline is pretty much rock and trees, so flooding was not a huge concern. But the winds were as the old trees in the city came down and knocked out power. Halifax’s big old city park juts out into the ocean on a peninsula...something like 70%+ of the trees were levelled. It looked like a logging clearcut.

But here’s the thing. Although Haligonians recycled the most of any city...they were still pumping their raw sewage into the ocean basin thatthe city is on. All sorts of ships and boats in the harbour sank in the surge in the relatively shallow waters of the historic waterfront...but some of them could not be refloated...because they filled with swirling excrement and became toxic. That embarrasment finally got the politicians to act and build a treatment facility. Nothing like tourist information having to disapoint prospective boat tour people because the ships were full of Mourinho.

I hope in your case they don’t wait for the worst. But they most likely will. And in the meantime...thoughts and prayers.

[soxfan]

I hope in your case they don’t wait for the worst. But they most likely will. And in the meantime...thoughts and prayers.

They let people rebuild in New Orleans and in New Jersey. Everyone knows that it could happen again in those areas -- especially in New Orleans, it's practically guaranteed.

Stupidity.

[jillcwhomever]

Stay safe to everyone in those areas, sounds horrific.

[Lone Star Red]

little south of jacksonville, but it doesnt look too bad then ?

You’ll be good mate, enjoy!

[Trada]

The people sticking it out baffle me. I mean seriously what is the point of staying there in the full force of the hurricane.

Its so wierd why do it, they were talking to this old lady on CNN she lives in a trailer house and said she would get her pets then barricade the front door and sit in front of it and ride out the storm and then she set off back home only then did you realise she was in a wheelchair.

They are saying its getting stronger again.

[Chakan]

Its so wierd why do it, they were talking to this old lady on CNN she lives in a trailer house and said she would get her pets then barricade the front door and sit in front of it and ride out the storm and then she set off back home only then did you realise she was in a wheelchair.

They are saying its getting stronger again.

To each their own, I always wondered how pompei happens where people end up with lava in the living room and they hang around, but now I kind of understand it. People are idiots.

[Zeb]

There's a hurricane chaser who actually lives in Wilmington. He's set cameras up. His twitter.

This is New Bern, NC. The rail on the gazebo to the right there is 6 feet above the ground.



And a few moments ago.

[soxfan]

Good luck to our Reds down there. PLEASE get out of there if you haven't yet & still can.

[Caligula?]

I see CNN and the like are doing their best to whip up a frenzy as usual. If there's a fallen tree or a mildly flooded street anywhere, you can bet that they'll be reporting from that exact spot of course. It's now a category one.

[Giono]

I see CNN and the like are doing their best to whip up a frenzy as usual. If there's a fallen tree or a mildly flooded street anywhere, you can bet that they'll be reporting from that exact spot of course. It's now a category one.

They must go limp when it drops down a category. Can’t sell as many erectile dysfunction pills in the commercial breaks at category 1.

[Trada]

They are saying over 500 people/family's  have rang asking for rescue already and its just began.

[AndyInVA]

The storm has slowed to 6 mph and was 30 miles off shore. The slow speed of this thing is what will cause the damage.

The coastal area and most of SC is flat.

The damage here will be flooding and not wind related.

By Sunday I am expecting to see real flooding issues.

Just a note on the pre planning.

My experience of pre planning in the NC/VA area has always been pretty good. The Governors tend to declare emergencies well ahead of time and all the state agencies swing into gear. The power companies have 25,000 linemen staff already set up in buildings in the region of the affected area ready to go into action when the storm subsides a bit.

Katrina hit one of the most corrupt dis-functional and frankly poor states in the US where they cant even fix the pot holes in the roads as no one wants to pay taxes. Other states seem to have their act together a bit more professionally.

[rafathegaffa83]

I think the forecasts for landfall speeds have been also partially based on potential for what could happen over night as Florence passes through the Gulf stream. It's borderline cat 2/3 right now, and has the potential to reintensify as it makes its approach to land. Hopefully it doesn't. The surge and the potential flooding is more than enough already, as said by a number of us. Bio will probably know more about this, just seems like another new 'normal' for hurricanes to be major regional flooding events in ways beyond our experience in the past 150+ years.

I get the sense that the flooding is a now core element of the way hurricanes are reported post-Katrina. During the last two years, there seems to be an emphasis on detailing the effects of a storm surge. It's not just devastating winds that can have an effect

[Lone Star Red]

These people who stay behind in susceptible areas despite being warned repeatedly by government officials and local law enforcement days in advance, really piss me off. Like these hundreds of people in New Bern who need rescuing. The town is barely above sea level, is at the confluence of two wide rivers, and everyone knew that this was a slow moving storm with enormous rain and surge potential. And now they need the coast guard and other enforcement agencies to come and rescue them and put their lives in danger.

[Nobby Reserve]

These people who stay behind in susceptible areas despite being warned repeatedly by government officials and local law enforcement days in advance, really piss me off. Like these hundreds of people in New Bern who need rescuing. The town is barely above sea level, is at the confluence of two wide rivers, and everyone knew that this was a slow moving storm with enormous rain and surge potential. And now they need the coast guard and other enforcement agencies to come and rescue them and put their lives in danger.

I don't disagree, but when the authorities say those who don't evacuate won't receive any help if they stay, then help these people anyway, they just invite fuckwits to ignore evacuation instructions.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

little south of jacksonville, but it doesnt look too bad then ?

You will be fine, nothing is expected to hit over here. Some rain but that's it, nothing crazy

[Lotus Eater]

The Storm Trackers are out in force too.
They get their 10 minutes of fame on the Wrather Channel

We seem to be getting blips ofbpower outage, but then it goes back on

[Giono]

These people who stay behind in susceptible areas despite being warned repeatedly by government officials and local law enforcement days in advance, really piss me off. Like these hundreds of people in New Bern who need rescuing. The town is barely above sea level, is at the confluence of two wide rivers, and everyone knew that this was a slow moving storm with enormous rain and surge potential. And now they need the coast guard and other enforcement agencies to come and rescue them and put their lives in danger.

I wonder if it is cumulative fear that they don’t want to leave their stuff, and when they hear that others are staying it reinforces their fear? Or is it just stubborness and anti-expert sentiment?

[AndyInVA]

580,000 people without power

[soxfan]

I don't think some people comprehend storm surge. I think they believe it just means some big waves slap into the immediate beach area and everyone else behind it is ok.

I've stayed in my cottage for some bad tropical storms & winter nor'easters here. The house is shaking/vibrating from sustained 50-70 MPH winds. You look out & there are whitecaps as far as your eye can see. Water is splashing into your yard with every wave & sometimes spray hits the 2nd floor of your house. It goes on for hours. Destroyed about half of my cement seawall during a March 2018 storm. And that's in a BAY, not facing the open ocean! And those weren't even hurricanes.

I've gotten evacuated three times for hurricanes. When they tell you to get out, you GET OUT. My neighborhood has gotten completely obliterated twice in history by 10-12 foot storm surges (decades ago). 90% of houses gone. One storm killed 22 people right here in about a 10 block area. Waves from Hurricane Sandy's storm surge made a hole in my backyard about 50 feet across, 6 feet wide and 3 feet deep, and I was 100+ miles north of its center.

These people are nuts or stupid, one or the other. You GET OUT.

[Eeyore]

These people who stay behind in susceptible areas despite being warned repeatedly by government officials and local law enforcement days in advance, really piss me off. Like these hundreds of people in New Bern who need rescuing. The town is barely above sea level, is at the confluence of two wide rivers, and everyone knew that this was a slow moving storm with enormous rain and surge potential. And now they need the coast guard and other enforcement agencies to come and rescue them and put their lives in danger.

What do you expect though when you have a President who shouts fake News at every opportunity. What do you expect when you have huge swathes of the Country routinely ignoring the media because they are hugely biased or believed to be hugely biased.

What do you expect when your President cannot possibly admit that extreme weather is becoming more extreme and more prevalent because he is a climate change denier.

What do you expect when you have a President stating that nothing could be done to save the 3,000 Puerto Ricans who died.

[Eeyore]

I don't think some people comprehend storm surge. I think they believe it just means some big waves slap into the immediate beach area and everyone else behind it is ok.

I've stayed in my cottage for some bad tropical storms & winter nor'easters here. The house is shaking/vibrating from sustained 50-70 MPH winds. You look out & there are whitecaps as far as your eye can see. Water is splashing into your yard with every wave & sometimes spray hits the 2nd floor of your house. It goes on for hours. Destroyed about half of my cement seawall during a March 2018 storm. And that's in a BAY, not facing the open ocean! And those weren't even hurricanes.

I've gotten evacuated three times for hurricanes. When they tell you to get out, you GET OUT. My neighborhood has gotten completely obliterated twice in history by 10-12 foot storm surges (decades ago). 90% of houses gone. One storm killed 22 people right here in about a 10 block area. Waves from Hurricane Sandy's storm surge made a hole in my backyard about 50 feet across, 6 feet wide and 3 feet deep, and I was 100+ miles north of its center.

These people are nuts or stupid, one or the other. You GET OUT.

Not trying to be flippant here but why live in areas that are so prone to natural disasters especially when climate change is only going to make things worse.

[Trada]

4 dead so far, did anyone see that major river its now flowing the wrong way it flowing in land at the mo instead of out to sea.

I think there is going to be some terrible flooding over the next couple of days and some places are really bad already.

They are saying its slowed to 3 MPH now.