Topic: Hurricane Florence and 2018 Hurricane Season

[Zeb]

Was just chatting to a friend who lives in Virginia. Her husband's with the coastguard. She was saying she's just making sure they're prepped for the hurricane. Say what?



If it lands as a cat 4, 150mph+ winds, then it'll be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall north of Florida. Predictions are that it could also linger for up anything up to a week, with all the flooding which comes with that. Currently landfall predictions are picking out the area around Wilmington, North Carolina, but the size of the thing means there's a big range of possibilities if it does make landfall.

Good luck to any Rawkites in the Carolinas and Virginia. Hopefully it'll turn aside but looks like it could be nasty if it doesn't.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Was just chatting to a friend who lives in Virginia. Her husband's with the coastguard. She was saying she's just making sure they're prepped for the hurricane. Say what?



If it lands as a cat 4, 150mph+ winds, then it'll be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall north of Florida. Predictions are that it could also linger for up anything up to a week, with all the flooding which comes with that. Currently landfall predictions are picking out the area around Wilmington, North Carolina, but the size of the thing means there's a big range of possibilities if it does make landfall.

Good luck to any Rawkites in the Carolinas and Virginia. Hopefully it'll turn aside but looks like it could be nasty if it doesn't.

Will he be joining the thousands who take refuge in the open ocean ?

[Chakan]

will have to see what happens, all we can do is prepare. Suppose to get the worse of it on Thursday 

[Giono]

Just thank god thst it is not hitting Puerto Rico.

[Zeb]

Will he be joining the thousands who take refuge in the open ocean ?

Think he's been waiting for just this chance to try it out in a wooden dinghy he made for himself.

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@Chakan - all the best with the prepping.

[Caligula?]

I doubt it'll make landfall as a category 4. 3 maybe, possibly even 2. Flooding will be an issue though. Good luck to anyone that lives in or around those areas, hopefully it doesn't do as much damage as is anticipated.

[Chakan]

Think he's been waiting for just this chance to try it out in a wooden dinghy he made for himself.

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@Chakan - all the best with the prepping.

Thanks I don’t think it will be too bad where we are, possibly some wind and rain, will get some water and stuff though just Incase.

[Zeb]

One forecast, and purely to show potential size relative to the Carolinas' coastline. (via Axios' Andrew Freedman)



Just to give a bit of context to all of this, you can see how relatively rarely hurricanes of strength make landfall north of Florida on this graphic showing each 'point' where a hurricane was noted at category 4 or 5. (Michael Lowry, the creator, is a strategic planner for FEMA.) Talking what would once have been a generational event, or even less common than that.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Thanks I don’t think it will be too bad where we are, possibly some wind and rain, will get some water and stuff though just Incase.

Good luck mate, stay safe!

[Nobby Reserve]

Wind sheer is likely to come into play to weaken it down to a 2/3.

Isaac is being watched closely, too, and this is expected to deepen and head more toward the Caribbean.

[Lone Star Red]

The best thing the people of the Carolinas can do is remain calm and informed and lean on trusted local meteorologists and forecasts. The sensationalization of dangerous weather has unfortunately become very much of a thing the last 5-10 years, with The Weather Channel much to blame (don't get me started on them), so accurate and reliable information is not as easy to discern as it used to be.

Stick to local meteorologists, local emergency services and your closest National Weather Service stations, all of which are very active and informative on social media, especially Twitter. @NWSFortWorth is a must follow for me on Twitter, especially during spring severe weather season here in north Texas.

[Zeb]

Kind of incredible in many ways that the forecasting is so far ahead of the reality. Potential for Florence to, briefly, be a cat 5 (see chart above for how mad that would be) before reducing back down to a strong cat 4 as it makes landfall. Obviously the forecasting is still open to change, with some suggestions that there's a (small) possibility for the hurricane to move further up along the coast (Maryland has now declared a state of emergency).

via a chap up in a space station

[stoopid yank]

I doubt it'll make landfall as a category 4. 3 maybe, possibly even 2. Flooding will be an issue though. Good luck to anyone that lives in or around those areas, hopefully it doesn't do as much damage as is anticipated.

Hope you are right. I'm in Wilmington and shitting bricks right now.  They are saying borderline 5 now. Probably won't be able to see the Tottenham game either if the power is out, which is a bummer. But keeping my roof on the house will be a positive...

[kavah]

^ Good luck!  Just seen that on CNN. YNWA

[Nobby Reserve]

The factors that had been expected to mitigate the strength of Florence as it made landfall - like wind sheer - have mitigated, and in fact there's a chance the storm could stall in the worst possible position. Parts of SC are being forecast to receive 700-1000mm of rain.

[soxfan]

As someone who lives in a vulnerable hurricane spot, I wish all good luck with this storm and any that follow this season. My stomach aches a little bit from August to October when I ponder storms forming in the Atlantic.

[Giono]

Hope you are right. I'm in Wilmington and shitting bricks right now.  They are saying borderline 5 now. Probably won't be able to see the Tottenham game either if the power is out, which is a bummer. But keeping my roof on the house will be a positive...

I hope it is better than you fear and you are able to watch the match.

[Zeb]

Forecasts have held up pretty well so far, although it seems a suggestion that it will make landfall between a cat 3 and a cat 4 which is a change. Rainfall forecasts are something else. As is the storm surge if it continues on its current track.

Good luck to our Wilmington based Rawkite.

Just looking at the Pacific, and there's a 50/50 chance Hong Kong is going to take a direct hit from the super typhoon which is about to trash northern Luzon again. That can fuck off somewhere safe out to sea too.

[Crimson_Tank]

Hope you are right. I'm in Wilmington and shitting bricks right now.  They are saying borderline 5 now. Probably won't be able to see the Tottenham game either if the power is out, which is a bummer. But keeping my roof on the house will be a positive...

Best of luck in Wilmington mate, my dad's wife just left for the OBX yesterday to make sure the place there is ready for the storm. Could be a bad one.

Chakan should be safe back on the far side of NC.

I am hoping it does not turn north.

[Lone Star Red]

While the wind and storm surge and coastal damage has the chance to be major, like with any major hurricane, I'm quite concerned with the flooding potential instate for both South and North Carolina and Virginia. As you get farther west and north for those states, it gets much hillier and mountainous, which makes for a nightmare scenario with some of the rain totals they've been talking about.

[Caligula?]

Hope you are right. I'm in Wilmington and shitting bricks right now.  They are saying borderline 5 now. Probably won't be able to see the Tottenham game either if the power is out, which is a bummer. But keeping my roof on the house will be a positive...

Just seen the forecast, and they've downgraded landfall as a category 3. I suspect it may weaken even further once it nears land. It's still a few days off and in very warm water, so it's only normal that it strengthens before it weakens. I hope it doesn't slow down though because the biggest issue will be flooding. Either way best of luck, and I hope you get to see the match. 

[Bioluminescence]

While the wind and storm surge and coastal damage has the chance to be major, like with any major hurricane, I'm quite concerned with the flooding potential instate for both South and North Carolina and Virginia. As you get farther west and north for those states, it gets much hillier and mountainous, which makes for a nightmare scenario with some of the rain totals they've been talking about.

According to Eric Holthaus latest projections highlight the potential for considerable floods (worst in East Coast history), with between 30 to 50 inches of rainfall over parts of North Carolina.

[ericthered10]

This is not going to be fun. Many areas that are supposed to be affected have had a decent amount of rain already of late and the ground and outflow areas are already pretty saturated so when this hits it is likely to pile up and not disperse quickly. Beginning preparations particularly with regard to my basement.

[Lone Star Red]

Just seen the forecast, and they've downgraded landfall as a category 3. I suspect it may weaken even further once it nears land. It's still a few days off and in very warm water, so it's only normal that it strengthens before it weakens. I hope it doesn't slow down though because the biggest issue will be flooding. Either way best of luck, and I hope you get to see the match. 

Still too early to make that prediction with any kind of certainty, especially given that most models and forecasts have it still remaining as a strong Cat 4 before landfall.

A lot will depend on if the hurricane is going through an eyewall replacement cycle right before landfall and weakens some (see Katrina) or right after a well-defined eye forms right before landfall and it hits at peak strength (see Harvey).

[ericthered10]

Went through an eyewall replacement overnight apparently, so a little weaker but eye grew in size. Also supposed to hit some very warm water in the next 24 hours so will be interesting to see how that changes things.

[Zeb]

Seems like forecasts are locked in until Thursday afternoon, and then it's pretty much in the lap of the gods what happens with the hurricane itself? The eye, so strong winds and rainfall etc are still over land because the whole thing is 300+ miles across, gets to within 75 miles of the coast and it could keep on going forwards, peel off to the left or right, or even do a loop the loop before heading inland.

[skipper757]

While the wind and storm surge and coastal damage has the chance to be major, like with any major hurricane, I'm quite concerned with the flooding potential instate for both South and North Carolina and Virginia. As you get farther west and north for those states, it gets much hillier and mountainous, which makes for a nightmare scenario with some of the rain totals they've been talking about.

Yep, you're absolutely right.  Flooding could be a huge problem in some of these places.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gaston_(2004)

I was in the Richmond suburbs when Gaston hit.  Downtown Richmond has a lot of hills, and sustained rainfall, even as the storm weakened inland, caused massive flooding.

In addition to wind speed and storm surges, Florence looks terrifying from the flooding aspect.

[Lotus Eater]

No news from RDU airport
Have family due to arrive Friday night

[Lotus Eater]

The sensationalization of dangerous weather has unfortunately become very much of a thing the last 5-10 years, with The Weather Channel much to blame (don't get me started on them), so accurate and reliable information is not as easy to discern as it used to be.

Weather Channel is bad, they’re proper baiters

[Nobby Reserve]

Possibility that it will veer SW'wards as it nears landfall, looking initially like it will hit NC, but actually landing in SC. Not that that will make much difference to the 'on the ground' conditions in either state.

[Zeb]

Meteorologists must be pulling their hair out trying to figure out the last part of its approach.

[Giono]

Meteorologists must be pulling their hair out trying to figure out the last part of its approach.

That’s a crazy photo.

I’s amazing that with all the technology we have that still mother nature is unpredictable.

[Zeb]

Thought this was good as a summary of just how weird Florence is. It's by Marshal Shepherd for Forbes.

As an expert within the field of meteorology, I have been fielding calls from media much of the day about Hurricane Florence. A recurring theme of my response has been how strange the storm is from a meteorological perspective. I have 3 degrees in meteorology from Florida State University, served as President of the American Meteorological Society, was a research meteorologist at NASA, and currently serve as Director of the University of Georgia Atmospheric Sciences Program. In my 27 years of professional experience, I have never seen some of the projected characteristics or behavior of Hurricane Florence.

One of the unique aspects of Hurricane Florence is the sheer size. It is a large storm. It has been estimated to be roughly 500 miles in diameter. In the graphic above, the storm is larger than the states of Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, respectively. For this reason, it is important to not become too locked on the exact location of landfall. There will certainly be significant impacts near the eye of the storm, but the footprint of Florence will cause impacts over a wide area.

The storm is also unusually strong for a hurricane at this latitude. According to a tweet by Colorado State University hurricane expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Florence is has the lowest pressure (943 mb) that far north since Hurricane Sandy. In fact, only 5 major (category 3 or greater) hurricanes have made landfall in North Carolina since 1851 according to Dr. Klotzbach: Great Beaufort-1879, San Ciriaco-1899, Hazel-1954, Gloria-1985 and Fran-1996. Helene (1958) and Emily (1991) were major hurricanes but did not officially make landfall.

Like Hurricane Harvey (2017) and Hurricane Lane (2018), Florence also has the potential to be a life-altering rainfall event. The graphic above from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center shows the potential for 2 to 3 feet of rainfall (feet not inches) in the coastal North Carolina region, and 1 to 2 feet of rainfall in South Carolina and inland regions.  The excessive rainfall is related to the unorthodox track that forecast models are projecting for Hurricane Florence. Common words that meteorological colleagues have been using to describe the track  include "unprecedented," "remarkable," and "never seen before." Track forecasts have the storm approaching the coast near North Carolina then slowing to a stall as we saw with Hurricane Harvey. Next something even more extraordinary happens. Some models have the storm paralleling the coast in route to South Carolina and coastal Georgia before perhaps another landfall. Meteorologist Ryan Maue of weather models.com explained this the meteorological processes at play in a Tweet:

"Why is Hurricane #Florence getting stuck? Ridge to the east -- ridge to the north -- ridge to the west. Where to go?.....Storm waits for an opportunity or a weakness in the ridges -- and takes it. Pushed south (!) to Savannah and then westward through Georgia."

This stall and "parallel coast" scenario (even with a weaker storm) creates a sustained barrage of wind, storm surge, and rain for the coastal regions.

The storm stalls because steering currents are projected to be weak as the storm approaches landfall. It is important to understand that the late uncertainty associated with the weather models and Florence is not an indictment on our skill. Track forecasts are typically pretty good these days and have been with Florence. National Weather Service -Seattle meteorologist Jacob DeFlitch used data provided by the National Hurricane Center and a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce the map below. It reveals that National Hurricane Center forecasts have been pretty solid. This trend is likely to continue until the storm approaches landfall and then steering currents weaken. At the end of the day, the "uncertainty" is more about the "strangeness of Hurricane Florence" and its future environment rather than deficiencies in our meteorological knowledge. As an academic, I suspect a few Master's theses or Doctoral dissertations will come from Hurricane Florence (2018).

Hurricane Florence has even been interesting from the perspective of lightning. Global meteorological instrument provider Vaisala collects global lightning data. According to a company spokesperson, their network has detected more than 54,000 strokes within Hurricane Florence since September 10th. As typical of previous studies, the outer rain bands (see graphic below) are most electrically-active, but lightning in the eyewall can be an indicator of intensification.

As I told an Associated Press writer earlier today, Hurricane Florence is a strange bird. It is also a headache for meteorologists and decision-makers. A couple of  meteorological scenarios are still possible, at the time of writing, but decision-makers often want "yes" or "no."

All the best to the Rawkites finishing up their preparations.

[rodderzzz]

just confirmed its weakened to a cat 2. Storm surge still expected to be horrific but at least the wind as has died down

[Caligula?]

Still too early to make that prediction with any kind of certainty, especially given that most models and forecasts have it still remaining as a strong Cat 4 before landfall.

A lot will depend on if the hurricane is going through an eyewall replacement cycle right before landfall and weakens some (see Katrina) or right after a well-defined eye forms right before landfall and it hits at peak strength (see Harvey).

It's now been downgraded to a category 2. It wasn't too early, I've seen it happen time and time again. I have plenty of experience of living through many of these storms in Southern Florida.

It's great that the winds won't be as devastating as first suspected, but if the storm remains relatively idle once it makes landfall as they continue to say, flooding will be a very big problem.

[Zeb]

I think the forecasts for landfall speeds have been also partially based on potential for what could happen over night as Florence passes through the Gulf stream. It's borderline cat 2/3 right now, and has the potential to reintensify as it makes its approach to land. Hopefully it doesn't. The surge and the potential flooding is more than enough already, as said by a number of us. Bio will probably know more about this, just seems like another new 'normal' for hurricanes to be major regional flooding events in ways beyond our experience in the past 150+ years.

[RedBootsTommySmith]

I remember Hurricane Floyd hitting that area around the millenium. Like Florence promises, it dumped a ton of rain that caused floods in the Cape Fear basin and the Neuse & Pamlico Rivers for the next 5-6 weeks, as far west as I-95. I don't understand the flood zones being forecasted for Florence, which appear limited to the coastal areas, they don't seem to be accounting for the rivers rising. The flooding will be devastating.

[Lone Star Red]

It's now been downgraded to a category 2. It wasn't too early, I've seen it happen time and time again. I have plenty of experience of living through many of these storms in Southern Florida.

It's great that the winds won't be as devastating as first suspected, but if the storm remains relatively idle once it makes landfall as they continue to say, flooding will be a very big problem.

While it's a good thing that it has weakened (in terms of wind speed), no hurricane is ever the same, so relying on the "I've seen this one before" method typically is not the most accurate and scientific way to go when it comes to storm prediction.

[Bioluminescence]

I think the forecasts for landfall speeds have been also partially based on potential for what could happen over night as Florence passes through the Gulf stream. It's borderline cat 2/3 right now, and has the potential to reintensify as it makes its approach to land. Hopefully it doesn't. The surge and the potential flooding is more than enough already, as said by a number of us. Bio will probably know more about this, just seems like another new 'normal' for hurricanes to be major regional flooding events in ways beyond our experience in the past 150+ years.

There's still a lot of uncertainty with hurricanes because of all the variables at play. The most likely scenario at this stage is that the strong storms might be stronger but overall frequency might decline, but we have to take into account natural variability - there are periods where hurricane activity is high and those where it's low. Precipitation levels are expected to rise for a couple of reasons - a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and some models suggest that hurricanes will slow down as a result of climate change (there's some uncertainty there). In addition, we saw the role changes to the Jet Stream can play in the case of Harvey last year, where resulting blocking patterns (high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east of North America) meant Harvey had nowhere to go. In a similar way Florence has the potential to stall because of a high pressure system to the north of it according to a report I read. It really doesn't look good at the moment, not with the ground saturated in the areas likely to be affected.

Looking at Asia, typhoon Jebi was the strongest typhoon to hit Japan in 25 years. Tough year for Japan with the torrential rain and heatwaves they experienced this summer. And typhoon Mangkhut is forecast to hit the Philippines at the weekend, coinciding with monsoons so the risk of flooding is very high there with storm surge and possible landslides a concern. To make things worse it's harvest season there (rice and corn) so farmers are rushing to harvest their crops at a time when there's already rice shortages in the country.

[Giono]

It seems on the news that the focus is always on the windspeeds. Therevare always shots of people boarding up windows for the high winds.

Correct me if I am wrong because I’m no expert, but it seems that the storms are packing more water these days. When I think of the recent Hurricanes, the issue is flooding rathervthan winds. The exception being Maria.


And another question to those who seem to know a bit about Hurricanes, does the amount of water in the hurricane affect the windspeed?