Author Topic: The Horse Racing thread (Read 328636 times)

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3840 on:** December 4, 2020, 10:02:17 am »

The Big Breakaway out again at Exeter today, although it should be a penalty kick, just getting in some more practice before the Feltham I expect

FlashGordon · « **Reply #3841 on:** December 4, 2020, 11:38:14 am »

Quote from: Gerry Attrick on December 4, 2020, 09:52:36 am

Interested to see Star Gate today. Should take all the beating. His sectionals were really good on his debut.

There is no way you can convinve me the Ruckers aren't drug dealers running a money lauindering scheme.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3842 on:** December 4, 2020, 01:34:09 pm »

The John Durkan looks a cracking renewal. Fancy Allaho to go close, also interested to see how Le Richebourg goes after injury, looked very good as a novice

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #3843 on:** December 4, 2020, 02:41:29 pm »

Star Gate looks a gorgeous animal. Hard to assess what he’s beat until we have more evidence but he ran away from them like they were running backwards.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3844 on:** December 4, 2020, 03:28:38 pm »

Haven’t had chance to watch the races yet but see the Big Breakaway got beat, which on the face of it is very disappointing but it was a lot shorter distance on not great ground so definitely worth another chance. Might even get a decent price if he’s goes to Kempton at Christmas now.

As a result Monkfish was further shortened by the pirates

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #3845 on:** December 4, 2020, 04:00:13 pm »

Tizzard’s horses haven’t been running at their absolute best for a very long time. Until he proves otherwise his horses are a hard swerve for me unless they’re a price. Backed a few at Cheltenham and they ran like Blackpool donkeys. Not seeing a lot to say it’s changed.

Robinred · « **Reply #3846 on:** December 4, 2020, 04:17:18 pm »

Quote from: Two Turtle Duvvas on December 4, 2020, 03:28:38 pm

Haven’t had chance to watch the races yet but see the Big Breakaway got beat, which on the face of it is very disappointing but it was a lot shorter distance on not great ground so definitely worth another chance. Might even get a decent price if he’s goes to Kempton at Christmas now.

As a result Monkfish was further shortened by the pirates

I think Sean Bowen desert the praise Mick Fitz gave him for an excellent stalking ride.

I rarely take at face value the form of 3/4 runner races. In fact I look for vfm and often back something to beat a ludicrously short priced hotpot in such races - they’re rarely run at true racing pace, and when big festival fields are racing, a truer test ensues.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3847 on:** December 4, 2020, 04:26:08 pm »

Quote from: Gerry Attrick on December 4, 2020, 04:00:13 pm

Tizzard’s horses haven’t been running at their absolute best for a very long time. Until he proves otherwise his horses are a hard swerve for me unless they’re a price. Backed a few at Cheltenham and they ran like Blackpool donkeys. Not seeing a lot to say it’s changed.

Quote from: Robinred on December 4, 2020, 04:17:18 pm

I think Sean Bowen desert the praise Mick Fitz gave him for an excellent stalking ride.

I rarely take at face value the form of 3/4 runner races. In fact I look for vfm and often back something to beat a ludicrously short priced hotpot in such races - they’re rarely run at true racing pace, and when big festival fields are racing, a truer test ensues.

You may be right about Tizzard’s. He had a terrible festival and perhaps they are still under a cloud.

Agree about the price today it was ludicrous and not one I would ever back, just a horse I’ve been thinking might go close in the RSA so a little disappointed about today but I think the distance was very much against him as would a slowly run affair have been. So willing to overlook today

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3848 on:** December 4, 2020, 07:28:37 pm »

The Tingle Creek and the Many Clouds chase look high quality renewals tomorrow. Also at Navan Andy Dufresne and The Big Getaway run in novice chases. A few other decent races too.

I’m hoping we see Altior back to his best. Henderson been very bullish these last few weeks.

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3849 on:** December 4, 2020, 07:43:36 pm »

Can’t wait to go to Aintree tomorrow!

Can’t believe they dropped the Big Breakaway in trip when he was so lazy last time out. Id run him in the 4 miler.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3850 on:** December 4, 2020, 07:58:33 pm »

Quote from: ohweloveyerbaldyhead on December 4, 2020, 07:43:36 pm

Can’t wait to go to Aintree tomorrow!

Can’t believe they dropped the Big Breakaway in trip when he was so lazy last time out. Id run him in the 4 miler.

Does seem a strange choice, my only guess was they wanted another race before Boxing Day and they aren’t a million miles from Exeter.

Must admit I’m looking at possibly going to Kempton on Boxing Day, been a long time since Cheltenham not to have been racing

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3851 on:** December 4, 2020, 08:18:12 pm »

Quote from: Two Turtle Duvvas on December 4, 2020, 07:58:33 pm

Does seem a strange choice, my only guess was they wanted another race before Boxing Day and they aren’t a million miles from Exeter.

Must admit I’m looking at possibly going to Kempton on Boxing Day, been a long time since Cheltenham not to have been racing

Might sharpen him up to be fair as he was behind the bridle last time.

Great card that, would love to go down one year!

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3852 on:** December 4, 2020, 08:45:22 pm »

Quote from: ohweloveyerbaldyhead on December 4, 2020, 08:18:12 pm

Might sharpen him up to be fair as he was behind the bridle last time.

Great card that, would love to go down one year!

Saw Kauto’s 2nd and 4th King George wins a few years back, maybe one of Silviniaco Conti’s as well but not been for a while

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3853 on:** December 4, 2020, 09:24:40 pm »

Few selections for Aintree tomorrow:

1:30 Walk In The Mill 2pt win 5/1 (various) & Kimberlite Candy 2pt win 7/1 (BF & PP)

Quite simply think the 1-2 from last year are the standout contenders for this years renewal and wouldn’t be surprised to see them make up the same placing

2:05 Army Of One 2pt win 10/1 (various)

Gavin Cromwell loves to aim a nice filly at this race & I think the fact she comes here for her first start over obstacles could be telling. She’s nicely bred and should relish conditions.

3:15 Didero Vallis 2pt win 6/1 (various)

I had a few fancies for this but Didero Vallis is the one who should most relish conditions. Been raining steadily all day in the Aintree area and Venetia’s seem to be in nice form. Handles the track & confident of a bold showing

Jumps/AW P/L: -33.3pts

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3854 on:** December 5, 2020, 02:37:19 pm »

Shame they dodged the race with Altior, but always good to watch Politologue.

The Big Getaway was well beaten. Sketchy jumping and completely emptied two out. Wouldnt be surprised if something was amiss the way he emptied but could have perhaps lost a bit of confidence as he didn’t jump that well. Wouldn’t be anything to worry any of the favs for the Novice chases at Cheltenham

Robinred · « **Reply #3855 on:** December 5, 2020, 04:22:37 pm »

The two 4-year olds who dominated the novice chase were the highlight of the day for me, Allmankind and Hitman - both have a huge future.

Excellent racing today, the Bowen brothers dominating the Chepstow card, Aintree featuring the National fences and Dr. Newland’s yard clearly in form. Great racing from Sandown too.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3856 on:** December 6, 2020, 03:27:50 pm »

Shame about the fog robbing us of being able to watch the John Durkan. Allaho went out like a light as far as I could see and Le Richebourg was never really going. Nice win by Min though, first ever three time winner of the race apparently

Robinred · « **Reply #3857 on:** December 8, 2020, 01:16:57 pm »

Quote from: Two Turtle Duvvas on November 19, 2020, 06:04:31 pm

Yes that’s the one. Noticed it was a faster time than the novice hurdle but the same as the handicap hurdle on the card. Really surprised even though he’s not with a big trainer that he’s not been cut shorter as bookies usually completely destroy antepost prices after a victory like that

Nassalam trotted up again today at Fontwell, in really testing ground. Hope you took the big odds for the Triumph. He’s 14s now.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3858 on:** December 8, 2020, 01:45:32 pm »

Quote from: Robinred on December 8, 2020, 01:16:57 pm

Nassalam trotted up again today at Fontwell, in really testing ground. Hope you took the big odds for the Triumph. He’s 14s now.

It’s a joke really, how can they cut the price for winning a race he was 1/12 for and a 200/1 shot finished second, even if he did win by half the course

Robinred · « **Reply #3859 on:** December 8, 2020, 05:38:36 pm »

X-rated coming together at Wolverhampton - Ben Curtis took a horrible tumble and kicking. Fingers crossed.

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #3860 on:** December 10, 2020, 07:08:18 pm »

Apples Jade was offered at the sales today. She sold alright. 530 bags of sand to Gordon Elliott. Rumours she's been bought for Moran who's a big owner in his yard. She's in foal to Walk In The Park who's been popular in the sales ring.

Cheveley have spent some serious money again. Grangeclare West for 430k and Guilly Billy for 310k being the ones I can find on Twitter.

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3861 on:** December 11, 2020, 08:52:49 am »

Quote from: Gerry Attrick on December 10, 2020, 07:08:18 pm

Apples Jade was offered at the sales today. She sold alright. 530 bags of sand to Gordon Elliott. Rumours she's been bought for Moran who's a big owner in his yard. She's in foal to Walk In The Park who's been popular in the sales ring.

Cheveley have spent some serious money again. Grangeclare West for 430k and Guilly Billy for 310k being the ones I can find on Twitter.

Some price that! I always find National Hunt mares to be less predictable than flat. Be nice if the likes of Quevega, Annie Power & now Apple's Jade do make into nice Broodmares though. I'm a fan of the mares programme as I love the breeding element of the flat and if we could get a bit of that into the jumps through mares with proven top class form it would add even more into the game for me.

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3862 on:** December 11, 2020, 08:59:34 am »

Quite a few fancies for Dundalk this evening:

4:00 Getaway Queen 2pt win 11/1 (various)

Quite simply I feel Getaway Queen is significantly overpriced here. She will have hated the ground in her last run over Hurdles and I feel that run is being factored into her price today too heavily. If you look at her form at Dundalk she hasn't been out of the frame in her last 4 runs. Jockey booking of Colin Keane is a big positive & I'm expecting her to go well.

5:30 Munfallet 3pt win 12/1 (general)

I feel this race is primed for Munfallet to run a huge race and make all. He ran a fine race last month and really wasn't given a hard time on the run in despite finishing so close. I feel his draw today is being factored into his price however there is a significant lack of pace on his inside & I believe if he breaks well he could move across the pack and grab the lead by the bend.

7:00 Independent Missy 2pt win 9/1 (Various) & Sendmylovetoyou 2pt win 9/1 (Bet365)

Two fillies are the fancies here & their recent form is almost identical. Both of their races have been given strong time figures & they've both run with credit in them. This race looks to have plenty of pace on which would suit both fillies run styles perfectly, they're both well drawn and should go close.

Jumps/AW P/L: -41.3pts

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3863 on:** December 11, 2020, 07:59:24 pm »

Two for the Caspian Caviar tomorrow:

Cepage 2pt win 15/2 (Hills) & Coole Cody 2pt win 11/1 (Hills)

Front/Prominent runners are so well suited to the New course at Cheltenham & I feel Cepage & Coole Cody will run the perfect race style. Cepage bumped into Frodon in the same race last season who is a Grade 1 animal over track & trip. Coole Cody ran a perfect race for this last time out over the less suitable Old course.

Jumps/AW P/L: -32.1pts

FlashGordon · « **Reply #3864 on:** December 12, 2020, 03:06:57 pm »

Epatante doesn't have much to worry about looking at that anyway.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3865 on:** December 12, 2020, 05:38:42 pm »

Quote from: FlashinGxmastreelightsGordon on December 12, 2020, 03:06:57 pm

Epatante doesn't have much to worry about looking at that anyway.

She really doesn’t does she. If they don’t take a chance with honeysuckle not sure what can challenge her. Got half an eye on Aspire Tower who seems overpriced at 20/1. Started the season with a very nice win, and his juvenile form was pretty solid.

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #3866 on:** December 12, 2020, 05:41:14 pm »

Said it but I got the feeling they weren’t running Goshen because they didn’t want the bubble to burst too soon. Well it has now, good and proper. I’ve not lost faith in him but he’s having the stereotypical post juvenile season nightmare. Hopefully he does a Defi Du Seuil and comes back but I wouldn’t back him with counterfeit over jumps or flat at this time.

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3867 on:** December 12, 2020, 10:00:08 pm »

yeah I don't see him as a chaser at all, hopefully gets somewhere near his best over hurdles next season.

Layed him today once he went to about 6/4, couldn't believe the money that came for him.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3868 on:** December 14, 2020, 05:57:46 pm »

Apparently Goshen had an irregular heartbeat after the race on Saturday but is fine now. It sounds like pretty much everything that could go wrong did. So one to put a line through, although he really has it all to prove now

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #3869 on:** December 14, 2020, 06:10:38 pm »

Moore's horses are in great form, so the only explanations were an issue or he's just having a terrible time of it this season. His flat runs were... well, a bit flat too so I'm not entirely convinced this is it but we'll see.

On another topic, if you want to buy an extremely expensive horse and for it to completely lose it's way Tizzard is near the top of the list. More evidence this weekend. Monocreme Has the most recent one. The amount of good young horses he's had sent to him that are struggling to run a race is way too long for it to be a coincidence. Nobody in horse racing seems to mention it either.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3870 on:** December 14, 2020, 07:21:49 pm »

Strangely enough was thinking about the Tizzards stable the other day. He really did go through a purple patch a few years back, with the likes of Thistlecrack and Cue Card but they really don’t seem to be able to make the most of what they’ve got now

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3871 on:** December 14, 2020, 08:03:35 pm »

Even when he had those really good ones they were always prone to a stinker I feel.

People slag Nicky about how he handles his horses but there's always a plan. Tizzard just seems to run them hoping they run to form without any real thought.

ohweloveyerbaldyhead · « **Reply #3872 on:** December 16, 2020, 09:03:17 am »

One today from Dundalk:

2:05 Pillar 3pt win 14/1 (Bet365)

Although Pillar has mainly been campaigned over 6f recently I feel that the lack of pace on here could bring about a big run. He's been running well & the wide draw has factored into a big price.

Jumps/AW P/L: -36.1pts

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #3873 on:** December 17, 2020, 04:15:14 pm »

Classic Getaway, an 8 length winner on debut has fetched 570,000 today. Cheveley the buyers.

Robinred · « **Reply #3874 on:** December 17, 2020, 05:38:49 pm »

Marsh hurdle (Long Walk) on Saturday is an intriguing race. The two principals in the betting are deserving of their market dominance, and Paisley Park will strip fitter this time. Roksana gets the mares weight allowance, then you’ve got Pipe’s Main Fact - just no telling how much improvement is left in him, but the upwards trajectory has been very steep. You’d think Thistlecrack’s best days are long gone.

Fascinating race. At around 7s, I think Roksana might be good e/w value.

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #3875 on:** December 17, 2020, 05:40:19 pm »

I’ll be on Paisley Park to reverse the form with Thyme and win.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3876 on:** December 17, 2020, 05:48:49 pm »

I’m firmly in the Thyme Hill camp. Even though Paisley Park is 3lb better off, I’d like to think Thyme Hill is still improving and had more to give last time if needed. But just like the Newbury race it looks a proper race, and given the ground is likely to be very soft it could be quite gruelling

Gerry Attrick · « **Reply #3877 on:** December 17, 2020, 06:03:54 pm »

Quote from: Two Turtle Duvvas on December 12, 2020, 05:38:42 pm

She really doesn’t does she. If they don’t take a chance with honeysuckle not sure what can challenge her. Got half an eye on Aspire Tower who seems overpriced at 20/1. Started the season with a very nice win, and his juvenile form was pretty solid.

Talking of Aspire Tower, Robcour have bought him. They've been throwing plenty at it the last few years.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3878 on:** December 17, 2020, 06:15:56 pm »

Interesting. Never sure if it’s a good thing when these decent horses get sold, often means that while it’s a top horse the owners have doubts whether he can truly go to the very top, otherwise surely you’d keep it (unless you really need the money)

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #3879 on:** December 17, 2020, 07:14:02 pm »

Few good ones out at Navan tomorrow as well. Bob Olinger upped to 2m4 in a maiden hurdle, and the current bumper fav Sir Gerhard is out again with a big test against Gavin Cromwell’s Letsbeclearaboutit.