Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Yosser0_0]

I think it should be a straight Remain vs No Deal question in a referendum, any kind of deal will inevitably end up being chipped away at by the right-wing anyway and they will continue to use the EU as a scapegoat for all the hardships caused by brexit when it would actually be all their fault, so take away that excuse by giving them the most complete break they want and given time maybe the British people might see sense.

But No Deal is off the table as far as parliament is concerned?

[TepidT2O]

But No Deal is off the table as far as parliament is concerned?

Errr. No..

We leave the EU by default on April the 12th. 

Unless something happens we get no deal (we’re back to thepis scenario agin I’m afraid).

Although there is an overwhelming majority against no deal.

[Red Beret]

Really? Could you see the next Tory leader dropping the Red lines or Revoking?

As I said, there are serious repercussions for both options, but a new Parliament might have a different sense of the situation than the current one. 

The cold hard fact is that unless the next leader is for full on hard brexit then the only way out of the current impasse is compromise.  If nothing else, May has proven that her red lines are ineffectual in securing a deal.

At the end of the day though, Brexit is one part ideological, two parts Tory power play.  There's honestly no way of knowing how it will pan out because a Tory PM will come at this from a party angle, and not at what is good for the nation.  As discussed, without a seismic shift in Parliament, an extension just kicks this whole mess down the road and we'll end up right back here in 9-12 months.

[Red Beret]

To be honest, before all this stuff started the whole Europe thing would have been of no importance at all to the DUP. It's not like the rights and wrongs of the Single Market got any mileage in their conferences and manifestos.

I think the DUP supported Brexit cos (a) their fellow travelers at the reactionary end of the Tory party supported it and (b) the Shinners and Dublin opposed it.
Make no mistake, if SF had supported Brexit, the DUP would have been Remainers.

Now I think they might be desperate for all this nonsense to end and get back to their normal version of bigotry and intransigence and most people on The Mainland ignoring them. Cos they now know that May's likely successors like Johnson and Rees-Mogg would sell them out in a nanosecond if it meant getting into no. 10.

Agreed!

[gjr1]

I think the EU will grant a 12 month extension so The UK can ‘sort itself out’.

It’s the logical choice has it’ll give time for a GE and/or another referendum without causing the EU any issues.

May ran the clock down in the hope of forcing her deal through or have no deal.

No one wants no deal... the country, the parliament and the EU don’t want it

She still needs 29/30 more MPs to change their minds to get the deal over the line if the speaker will even allow another vote. The numbers are not there. With the DUP and the not for changing Tories she’ll never get it passed.

[Yosser0_0]

Errr. No..

We leave the EU by default on April the 12th. 

Unless something happens we get no deal (we’re back to thepis scenario agin I’m afraid).

Although there is an overwhelming majority against no deal.

No, please read back, I'm talking about a possible referendum question - which would obviously be in the future, post extension after a plan to the EU which would includes a peoples vote.

[Red Beret]

Someone has been naughty

I know it's really unlikely but I would laugh my tits off if May called for an election vote and she lost it.  She would be faced with the prospect of either having to carry on or resigning.  From a Tory perspective it might actually be the best/only way to get rid of her.

I think the EU will grant a 12 month extension so The UK can ‘sort itself out’.

It’s the logical choice has it’ll give time for a GE and/or another referendum without causing the EU any issues.

May ran the clock down in the hope of forcing her deal through or have no deal.

No one wants no deal... the country, the parliament and the EU don’t want it

She still needs 29/30 more MPs to change their minds to get the deal over the line if the speaker will even allow another vote. The numbers are not there. With the DUP and the not for changing Tories she’ll never get it passed.

Y'see, THERE'S your problem.  None of this has anything to do with logic.  If logic were at play we'd have already asked for a long extension and be sorting out a referendum.  Not worrying ourselves shitless about a No Deal that nobody wants but might still happen because nobody has the guts to request an extension and admit the whole mess is beyond fixing inside the next two weeks.

[TepidT2O]

No, please read back, I'm talking about a possible referendum question - which would obviously be in the future, post extension after a plan to the EU which would includes a peoples vote.

Oh soz.

[Alan_X]

I know it's really unlikely but I would laugh my tits off if May called for an election vote and she lost it.  She would be faced with the prospect of either having to carry on or resigning.  From a Tory perspective it might actually be the best/only way to get rid of her.

Y'see, THERE'S your problem.  None of this has anything to do with logic.  If logic were at play we'd have already asked for a long extension and be sorting out a referendum.  Not worrying ourselves shitless about a No Deal that nobody wants but might still happen because nobody has the guts to request an extension and admit the whole mess is beyond fixing inside the next two weeks.

If logic had anything to do with it we'd have fucked the whole thing off years ago.

[Yosser0_0]

As I said, there are serious repercussions for both options, but a new Parliament might have a different sense of the situation than the current one. 

The cold hard fact is that unless the next leader is for full on hard brexit then the only way out of the current impasse is compromise.  If nothing else, May has proven that her red lines are ineffectual in securing a deal.

At the end of the day though, Brexit is one part ideological, two parts Tory power play.  There's honestly no way of knowing how it will pan out because a Tory PM will come at this from a party angle, and not at what is good for the nation.  As discussed, without a seismic shift in Parliament, an extension just kicks this whole mess down the road and we'll end up right back here in 9-12 months.

Aye depressingly that seems the case. The A50 submission and the red lines were committed to far too early but were based on the manifesto, so had to be delivered. But in modern day politics does the manifesto matter anymore in this instant society, why not go with the latest whim to get votes?

[The Gulleysucker]

I would love an election, but I can't see how she can threaten one, because she just can't call for one now MPs have to vote for it.

Or am I missing something.

Perhaps the blinder that your hero is playng...

[ShakaHislop]

As of 21:00hrs five arrests have been made at the demonstrations in central #London today: x2 for assault, x1 drunk & disorderly, x1 for assaulting a police officer & x1 male arrested after being identified as wanted for an offence in Herts. All are in custody.

https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1111734072408199168

[Red Beret]

Aye depressingly that seems the case. The A50 submission and the red lines were committed to far too early but were based on the manifesto, so had to be delivered. But in modern day politics does the manifesto matter anymore in this instant society, why not go with the latest whim to get votes?

Judging by the reports today of how May was promising the Earth and a never ending flow of milk and honey for any Labour MPs who might consider voting for her, I'm pretty sure that's where we seem to be at.

Most manifestos only really seem to cover a Parliament's first term, with some longer term objectives vaguely pencilled in.  But it should be painfully obvious by now that Brexit is simply not deliverable based on the criteria May had put into the manifesto. 

If a soft Brexit remains an option than something has got to give - we're at this impasse because May refuses to give.  She wants Brexit, on her terms; she can't get it on her terms, but refuses to budge on her terms.  That's it, in a nutshell.

If logic had anything to do with it we'd have fucked the whole thing off years ago.

Is the correct answer.

[killer-heels]

https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1111734072408199168

A quiet friday night, relatively.

[Alan_X]

https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1111734072408199168

As someone said on the Remainers podcast - The possibility of Brexit not happening isn't going to turn people to violence, these neanderthals were violent anyway.

It's the politics of Brexit that attracts knuckle-dragging morons. 

[ShakaHislop]

Happy No Brexit everyone!

[Skeeve]

No, please read back, I'm talking about a possible referendum question - which would obviously be in the future, post extension after a plan to the EU which would includes a peoples vote.

I know the MPs supposedly don't want that, but since all flavours of brexit are fucking shite why not put remain up against the most shite which has the most chance of making potential wishywashy leave voters see sense and come back from the brink of disaster, rather than giving them the option of something that is worse than what we currently have (should be called EU+ ffs) where they can say at least it is a change.

[oldfordie]

 

Happy No Brexit everyone!

Happy no Brexit. lets make March 29th Happy no Brexit day from now on.

[killer-heels]

Rory Stewart was not clear at all as to what May will do if a customs union is agreed on Monday. Seems to be hinting that staring at the barrel of that will focus minds on one more crack at her MV.

[Red Beret]

Rory Stewart was not clear at all as to what May will do if a customs union is agreed on Monday. Seems to be hinting that staring at the barrel of that will focus minds on one more crack at her MV.

So it's rinse repeat of May's previous strategy?  Stall and hope the threat of no brexit intimidates MPs into supporting her deal? 

Granted, she's whittled the opposition down somewhat, but even if the ERG gets totally behind her, without the DUP she's reliant on Labour rebels to try and force this through.  And there's still the small matter of Bercow allowing yet another fucking vote on her deal.

[Yosser0_0]

I know the MPs supposedly don't want that, but since all flavours of brexit are fucking shite why not put remain up against the most shite which has the most chance of making potential wishywashy leave voters see sense and come back from the brink of disaster, rather than giving them the option of something that is worse than what we currently have (should be called EU+ ffs) where they can say at least it is a change.

Goes back to my point earlier, can you trust the electorate now? Its a huge risk, I never thought the Tory's would loose their majority in the last GE, it was completely unpredictable.

[ShakaHislop]

  Happy no Brexit. lets make March 29th Happy no Brexit day from now on.

https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1056949656037613569

It's the thought that counts.

[goalrushatgoodison]

To be honest, before all this stuff started the whole Europe thing would have been of no importance at all to the DUP. It's not like the rights and wrongs of the Single Market got any mileage in their conferences and manifestos.

I think the DUP supported Brexit cos (a) their fellow travelers at the reactionary end of the Tory party supported it and (b) the Shinners and Dublin opposed it.
Make no mistake, if SF had supported Brexit, the DUP would have been Remainers.

Now I think they might be desperate for all this nonsense to end and get back to their normal version of bigotry and intransigence and most people on The Mainland ignoring them. Cos they now know that May's likely successors like Johnson and Rees-Mogg would sell them out in a nanosecond if it meant getting into no. 10.

If you are saying that they would not be naturally idealogical supporters of Brexit, I'd agree. However, I'm not sure that their support for Brexit was just down to the attitudes of thier respective friends and foes.My instinct is that a big factor was that in the event, albeit unlikely at the time, of a Brexit outcome to the referendum, they really didn't want to take the chance of been in a position where they and the overwhelming majority oh NI ( which it would have been if the DUP had opposed it) were against it.

Refusal to accept special treatment for Ni, which at the very least would optically challenge the concept of the Union, would be difficult to brazen out in the event that they had led opposition to Brexit in the first place.

[Zeb]

Looks like Grieve will be missing out on the decade long Parliamentary session to be called "the future relationship".

"Dominic Grieve loses confidence vote at Beaconsfield Conservative Association by 182 to 131 votes; paves way for deselection"

(via Sunday Times' Gabriel Pogrund)

[ShakaHislop]

https://twitter.com/georginafstubbs/status/1111715367615901701?s=21

Lovely lot these

Some weren’t too keen on the Telegraph either. I was called a “disgusting Jew traitor” today.

https://twitter.com/journobill/status/1111730538153476096

[ShakaHislop]

Looks like Grieve will be missing out on the decade long Parliamentary session to be called "the future relationship".

"Dominic Grieve loses confidence vote at Beaconsfield Conservative Association by 182 to 131 votes; paves way for deselection"

(via Sunday Times' Gabriel Pogrund)

Next Tigger/ChangeUK-er?

[oldfordie]

https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1056949656037613569

It's the thought that counts.

Brexit is probably the opposite to all those things, cheeky Ba...
Brexit, with a picture of John Bercow and the words, Order,Order Order. 

[Yosser0_0]

If you are saying that they would not be naturally idealogical supporters of Brexit, I'd agree. However, I'm not sure that their support for Brexit was just down to the attitudes of thier respective friends and foes.My instinct is that a big factor was that in the event, albeit unlikely at the time, of a Brexit outcome to the referendum, they really didn't want to take the chance of been in a position where they and the overwhelming majority oh NI ( which it would have been if the DUP had opposed it) were against it.

Refusal to accept special treatment for Ni, which at the very least would optically challenge the concept of the Union, would be difficult to brazen out in the event that they had led opposition to Brexit in the first place.

Bit confused here, I thought most of NI voted remain, which is understandable? The £1bn bribe for the DUP to back the Tory's was always a bit dubious and founded on what? Then when the Tory's fucked them over with the backstop, whatever so called partnership they had was over.

[killer-heels]

Next Tigger/ChangeUK-er?

Would last all but the few weeks until we have a general election then he would be voted out.

The DUP are pondering apparently which option to go for on Monday. Would imagine they follow the SNP.

[Red Beret]

Next Tigger/ChangeUK-er?

Nothing left to lose now?

[coolbyrne]

I apologize in advance if the answers seem obvious, but I'm having a hard time following all this. Without getting into the Party/politician discussion (which confuses me quite a bit as a Canadian), I just have a few basic questions:

-So people voted to leave the EU, but the politicians in charge had no real plan if that happened? I mean, this talk of "soft" and "hard" Brexit seems to indicate that even the Leavers couldn't agree.

-Now they're voting on a bunch of different options, including a 2nd referendum? And none of those passed a majority vote, so nothing was accomplished?

-What ultimately happens if, come April 12th, no agreement is made? Can the EU just say, "Enough. Goodbye."?

[Zeb]

Next Tigger/ChangeUK-er?

Underlining their point whatever he chooses to do. There's only 8 of them left on the Tory backbenches.

[Yorkykopite]

https://twitter.com/journobill/status/1111730538153476096

This is great for the Remainers. The raw racist, anti-semitic hatred of the Brexit janissaries. These are the Brexit shock troops and the nation is watching.

Normally the effect of seeing such thugs would be spoilt by a load of equally vile Trotskyist counter-demonstrators. But this time, oh happy land, the Trots and the Fascists are on the same side.

[Zeb]

-What ultimately happens if, come April 12th, no agreement is made? Can the EU just say, "Enough. Goodbye."?

Unless there's agreement to stop Brexit altogether then, yeah, the EU are in charge and we have to meet their demands. If no agreement is found in Parliament before the 12th April then we leave the EU with only whatever provisions they're willing to grant unilaterally. They have already stated that the minimum requirement to open further talks if that happens will be agreeing to what is in front of us now.

[Red Beret]

I apologize in advance if the answers seem obvious, but I'm having a hard time following all this. Without getting into the Party/politician discussion (which confuses me quite a bit as a Canadian), I just have a few basic questions:

-So people voted to leave the EU, but the politicians in charge had no real plan if that happened? I mean, this talk of "soft" and "hard" Brexit seems to indicate that even the Leavers couldn't agree.

-Now they're voting on a bunch of different options, including a 2nd referendum? And none of those passed a majority vote, so nothing was accomplished?

-What ultimately happens if, come April 12th, no agreement is made? Can the EU just say, "Enough. Goodbye."?

Yes to all three questions.  Welcome to British politics.

[Zeb]

One point which has stuck with me from close to the beginning was by one of the wonks on EU policy. She said that we're treating this like a negotiation between equals but the EU are treating it as an accession process in reverse. "You must do X by Y date in order to begin talks about Z".

[lamad]

To be honest that's no big deal and people spoffing BS is what debating, politics and democracy is all about. Don't you think the Spanish and Italians can moan equally as well, if not more? In a way that is the remarkable thing about the EU, in that they have managed to somehow unite countries with such different values and cultures. It will be a shame to leave the EU. 

Well, in the last few day, after all the voting shenanigans in the HoC, there were voices from politicians in Brussels whose opinions went along the lines of "it would be utterly ludicrous to have UK MEPs in the next EU parliament", because a) the British want out and b) we don't need more f**kwits like Frottage.
But you are absolutely right of course; the threshold for political pain and endurance is high in Brussels - it is a prerequisite to making work this whole system of getting so many different countries to agree on common principles as well as the complicated minutiae of trade stuff and whatnot. For decades the British were at the forefront of making the EU's life difficult - although recently one EU politician here said that at the end of the day the British mostly used to be very pragmatic - but they were/are far from the only ones. These days the EU deals with various anti EU factions, from the Italian crazies to Hungarian and Polish nutters (although none of them are mad enough to propose leaving the bloc). So there surely is a lot of head banging and probably some anger in Brussels, but of course they would prefer to keep the UK. At least keep them for now instead of having a no deal Brexit.
 
Same as many on here I would suspect many in Brussels hope that the longer any extension the less likely a Brexit might become, or at least the opportunity to make it as soft as possible will arise. Never give up hope until it is over, I guess. Last November I bought theatre tickets for a play in London at the end of April, wondering what the Brexit situation would be like by that time (admittedly I did not imagine *this* situation now), and last week I got a ticket for a concert at the Hall in November... hoping to still travel to a EU Britain. Most people here don't want you to leave and we don't want to leave you behind. 

[oldfordie]

I apologize in advance if the answers seem obvious, but I'm having a hard time following all this. Without getting into the Party/politician discussion (which confuses me quite a bit as a Canadian), I just have a few basic questions:

-So people voted to leave the EU, but the politicians in charge had no real plan if that happened? I mean, this talk of "soft" and "hard" Brexit seems to indicate that even the Leavers couldn't agree.

-Now they're voting on a bunch of different options, including a 2nd referendum? And none of those passed a majority vote, so nothing was accomplished?

-What ultimately happens if, come April 12th, no agreement is made? Can the EU just say, "Enough. Goodbye."?

There was no plan and never will be because a successful Brexit is impossible to deliver.
How can you have a plan to deliver the impossible.

[paulrazor]

[ShakaHislop]

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1111777767790661637