Author Topic: The PL run-in  (Read 980703 times)

Offline mrantarctica

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #760 on: December 3, 2020, 05:11:53 am »
Spurs usually don't bother me, but this is Mourinho's 2nd season and everywhere his 2nd season has been a success, even at Man United where they finished with 82 points. If Spurs get the same amount of points this season, they will be there and thereabouts.

There are a lot of good teams there. Spurs with Mourinho will be dangerous, and Chelsea will be up there by the end after their strong recruiting. Leicester will be up there too. I don't think we have it very easy at all this season in that many teams have strengthened, we have a lot of injuries, and we seem to have a bad run of luck with the VAR stuff. That being said, we have a good squad and we have made a decent start. The best thing we can do is what we always do best which is go one game at a time and keep bringing in the results. I definitely think we will be right up there by the end, but it'll be a herculean effort if we do given the difficulties we already have.

Offline Redcap

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #761 on: December 3, 2020, 06:00:08 am »
If we get a CB in Jan and we don't suffer the same kind of soft-muscle apocalypse in our forward line, then I think we'll do it - one of CL or PL that is.

Offline Rhys_J

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #762 on: December 3, 2020, 07:49:06 am »
There are a lot of good teams there. Spurs with Mourinho will be dangerous, and Chelsea will be up there by the end after their strong recruiting. Leicester will be up there too. I don't think we have it very easy at all this season in that many teams have strengthened, we have a lot of injuries, and we seem to have a bad run of luck with the VAR stuff. That being said, we have a good squad and we have made a decent start. The best thing we can do is what we always do best which is go one game at a time and keep bringing in the results. I definitely think we will be right up there by the end, but it'll be a herculean effort if we do given the difficulties we already have.

Leicester will do well to get top 8 let alone challenge for the title. They've been overperforming their xg massively so far this season, and have benefited from the most penalties. And that's before you consider the impact of the Europa league. Chelsea and Spurs also scoring 40% more goals than their xg, won't be able to maintain that all season so will struggle to get more than 70 something points. Let's just focus on ourselves now, better than wasting energy on teams, half of which will be miles off by the new year. 85 points or a 20-4-4 finish wins it from here we are more than capable of that.

Offline Fromola

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #763 on: December 3, 2020, 08:38:45 am »
If we get a CB in Jan and we don't suffer the same kind of soft-muscle apocalypse in our forward line, then I think we'll do it - one of CL or PL that is.

If you had the choice (and taking the whole crowds aspect out of the equation or who we'd beat in the final etc), if you were offered tomorrow the league title this season or number 7 in Istanbul what would you go for?
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Offline red whine

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #764 on: December 3, 2020, 08:51:53 am »
If you had the choice (and taking the whole crowds aspect out of the equation or who we'd beat in the final etc), if you were offered tomorrow the league title this season or number 7 in Istanbul what would you go for?

League Title all day long

Offline Jookie

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #765 on: December 3, 2020, 08:52:44 am »
Leicester will do well to get top 8 let alone challenge for the title. They've been overperforming their xg massively so far this season, and have benefited from the most penalties. And that's before you consider the impact of the Europa league. Chelsea and Spurs also scoring 40% more goals than their xg, won't be able to maintain that all season so will struggle to get more than 70 something points. Let's just focus on ourselves now, better than wasting energy on teams, half of which will be miles off by the new year. 85 points or a 20-4-4 finish wins it from here we are more than capable of that.

No-one should be getting concerned about other teams. But there's a big difference between saying 'Im really concerned about x, y, z' and 'I think x,y,z, have a chance this season'.

Not many people in this thread are saying they are really concerned about any team. More so the fact that there's potentially been a shift in thinking from the start of the season. At the start of the season I suspect 99% of people would have thought the PL winner would come from City or Liverpool. That the other teams literally had no chance, or about 0.1% chance of winning the league. All I think people are saying is that after about 25-30% of the season gone those %'s for other teams have got a bit bigger and Liverpool's (due to injuries) and City's (due to form) have got a bit smaller. A big part of this is that the bar that has been set over the least 3 seasons of seeing high 90's to get over 1 of these teams has be brought down to probably somewhere in the 80's. It's still a long shot for some of the teams mentioned to get there but it's significantly less of a long shot the them getting high 90's. I still think 99% of people think the title winners will end up being us or City. I just think people have slightly less confidence saying that in comparison to the start of the season.

In terms of maintaining xG, wasn't there a school of thought after 2018/19, when we performed over our xG, that we'd 'revert back to the mean' the next season? I like statistics and their use in football but there is a chance teams can consistently outperform their xG. Most teams will probably won't but could a tam do it over a season? Probably. Could a team like Spurs or Chelsea do it? Maybe.

Leicester won't be lucky to challenge for Top 8. You are letting the recency of their results against us and Fulham cloud your judgement. Beyond us Leicester are one of the teams struggling with injury the most. Similar to us they look like they'll have key players returning soon and that should help them in terms of their ability to rotate. I think the chance of Leicester, or United, mounting a title challenge are very small but I wouldn't rule them out completely given the current circumstances.
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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #766 on: December 3, 2020, 09:00:20 am »
You will always have teams who over perform over a season (if looking at totals and not game to game), whether that be from a low or high starting point.

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #767 on: December 3, 2020, 09:37:06 am »
You will always have teams who over perform over a season (if looking at totals and not game to game), whether that be from a low or high starting point.

Us last season

*runs and hides*

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #768 on: December 3, 2020, 09:45:35 am »
Imagine how easy this league would be with Virgil and Thiago not injured?

As it is, the title win will be closer but even sweeter.

Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #769 on: December 3, 2020, 10:27:12 am »
United as well. Chelsea isn't versatile and don't have a big squad of trusted members and may struggle in the later part of the season with CL. A couple of injuries to Spurs' main players could derail them, but it's Mourinho's second season where he will hit his peak. So I'd say it's between us, Spurs and City right away as of now.

Said it before the season and I'm definitely saying it now - ruling out Chelsea is stupid given their squad depth.

They're exactly the sort of team which could win the league with a lower points total than most years.

Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #770 on: December 3, 2020, 10:29:26 am »
You will always have teams who over perform over a season (if looking at totals and not game to game), whether that be from a low or high starting point.

Would be funny to see what some of these people insisting Spurs and Chelsea - who have exceptional footballers in the final third, and in Spurs' case are specifically geared towards making football matches a low chance shoot-off - can't possibly outperform their xG across a season made of Leicester in 2015/16. Their brains would explode.

Worst part of the increase in data for me - it's made football chat dead boring.

Offline Fromola

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #771 on: December 3, 2020, 10:32:19 am »
Said it before the season and I'm definitely saying it now - ruling out Chelsea is stupid given their squad depth.

They're exactly the sort of team which could win the league with a lower points total than most years.

Chelsea and Man City should pound for pound be first and second favourites because of the sheer amount of money they've spent on their squads to give them the depth in a condensed season.

It's testament to what Klopp has achieved here that a) we'd be favourites and clear at the top if we had our best players available and b) we're still in the running and up there despite a massive injury crisis
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Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #772 on: December 3, 2020, 10:34:08 am »
Chelsea and Man City should pound for pound be first and second favourites because of the sheer amount of money they've spent on their squads to give them the depth in a condensed season.

It's testament to what Klopp has achieved here that a) we'd be favourites and clear at the top if we had our best players available and b) we're still in the running and up there despite a massive injury crisis

I don't think we have to pretend we're paupers - we've spent plenty of money and our wage bill is right up there now. But yes, City and Chelsea are always going to have a bit more depth than us and it was a lot easier for them to get to where they are.

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #773 on: December 3, 2020, 10:48:23 am »
Us last season

*runs and hides*
I think every title winner has recently? You kind of need to, you're very good players over perform and you hopefully win, that's good.

Offline Scouser-Tommy

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #774 on: December 3, 2020, 10:50:24 am »
League Title all day long
Why not both?

Offline Fromola

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #775 on: December 3, 2020, 10:59:51 am »
I don't think we have to pretend we're paupers - we've spent plenty of money and our wage bill is right up there now. But yes, City and Chelsea are always going to have a bit more depth than us and it was a lot easier for them to get to where they are.

Chelsea pretty much outspent the rest of the league combined bringing in a load of high quality talent. Bearing in mind they already had a top 4 team and a squad packed with talent, although needed some reinforcements to push on.

We've still got mostly untried youngsters at this level for back up in 4 or 5 positions now if we include the goalkeeper. Even if Chelsea have got some youngsters they've got the benefit of a full season last year (Reece James or Abraham for example). Plus the likes of Giroud who can come in and regularly produce as a plan B as opposed to Origi.

Klopp would be winning the league with that squad, put it that way. Lampard's inexperience holds them back a bit.
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Offline Raid

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #776 on: December 3, 2020, 11:21:52 am »
Nobody should be ruling Chelsea out. Bags of talent in that squad now, the signings of the Mendy and Thiago Silva have given them a defensive platform too.

The Brighton game was such a bitter pill to swallow, to be two points clear after what we've gone through would have been great.

The next block of three games is big, nine points will put some daylight between us and the pack.

Offline Barrow Shaun

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #777 on: December 3, 2020, 05:48:17 pm »
Why not both?

League title for me too. I think the original poster offered a choice of A or B.
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #778 on: December 3, 2020, 06:13:33 pm »
Said it before the season and I'm definitely saying it now - ruling out Chelsea is stupid given their squad depth.

They're exactly the sort of team which could win the league with a lower points total than most years.

I'm not sure. They aren't winning the title with Lampard in charge. Put it like this. Lampard isn't going to beat all of Mourinho, Guardiola and Klopp in one season with the those 3 having decent to good squads themselves. Whereas Mourinho, Guardiola and Klopp have it in them to win it.
« Last Edit: December 3, 2020, 06:17:26 pm by PoetryInMotion »

Offline The G in Gerrard

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #779 on: December 3, 2020, 06:36:33 pm »
Have faith in us.

Offline wige

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #780 on: December 3, 2020, 10:46:02 pm »
I'm not sure. They aren't winning the title with Lampard in charge. Put it like this. Lampard isn't going to beat all of Mourinho, Guardiola and Klopp in one season with the those 3 having decent to good squads themselves. Whereas Mourinho, Guardiola and Klopp have it in them to win it.

Not saying Lampard is anywhere near the level of the three you've named there, but there's a general feeling he's shit or just bad it seems and I'm not entirely sure I'm seeing the reasons for it, other than dislike/hatred from his playing days.

They had a dodgy start defensively, but since the goalkeeper change have been much, much improved defensively. Close to the best defensive record in the league and it hasn't stopped them scoring either.

Granted, the season is still very young, but I think given how many signings they made they're only going to improve as they gel and settle. Maybe Lampard eventually holds them back, but the signs so far don't really show that. I'm delighted we got the trip to theirs out of the way when we did.

Offline Marty 85

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #781 on: December 3, 2020, 11:37:45 pm »
Spurs have a chance with the firepower they've got up front, added to the steel Mourinho can instill in sides. Mourinho is a momentum manager, they're not a side you want top of the league because when his teams are top they pretty much stay there historically. This is where the next few games are huge. He's never chased a title down, his teams either start well and build up a lead which they keep or start badly and he gets sacked.

Chelsea have basically tried to buy the title this season and that's worked enough times in the past, so they're a threat.

City are the main threat overall.

United likely to be in the top 4 mix at least as they get all the VAR decisions. We can't discount the extent to which VAR is manipulating results and the season.

Fair and realistic take on things and this season could be the perfect storm for Mourinho.

I still think us and City have taken things to another level in recent seasons and Mourinhos tactics aren't enough to win the league these days. He may get mid 80's but I still think the bar has been raised to the extent where you need 90+ to seal it.

Of course I'm bias but I think we'll win it again. Spurs may challenge but if that's the case, and they finish above City I think it just means we'll win it at a canter.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #782 on: December 4, 2020, 11:30:01 am »
Not saying Lampard is anywhere near the level of the three you've named there, but there's a general feeling he's shit or just bad it seems and I'm not entirely sure I'm seeing the reasons for it, other than dislike/hatred from his playing days.

They had a dodgy start defensively, but since the goalkeeper change have been much, much improved defensively. Close to the best defensive record in the league and it hasn't stopped them scoring either.

Granted, the season is still very young, but I think given how many signings they made they're only going to improve as they gel and settle. Maybe Lampard eventually holds them back, but the signs so far don't really show that. I'm delighted we got the trip to theirs out of the way when we did.

We have two seasons to back it up - his Derby one and last season where they sneaked into Top 4 due to Leicester's implosion.

He's not tactically that good.

Offline red whine

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #783 on: December 4, 2020, 11:41:27 am »
I don't see any team getting 90+ points this season!

Offline Fromola

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #784 on: December 4, 2020, 11:58:00 am »
I don't see any team getting 90+ points this season!

90 points isn't happening. Potentially City if they get on a roll as they've got a big squad and no injuries.

The lower the bar the better the chance for Chelsea or Spurs.
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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #785 on: December 4, 2020, 12:02:40 pm »
I think we'll get at least 90 points, or if not we'll be 1 or 2 points below at most.

Can't see either Spurs or Chelsea getting above 80. City are the only ones who have the ability to get above that as well but who knows how they'll get on given their form so far.

Offline an fear dearg

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #786 on: December 4, 2020, 12:59:26 pm »
I think we'll get at least 90 points, or if not we'll be 1 or 2 points below at most.

Can't see either Spurs or Chelsea getting above 80. City are the only ones who have the ability to get above that as well but who knows how they'll get on given their form so far.

I think 86-88 wins it with a bit to spare. I agree that I don’t see Spurs or Chelsea getting to that level as the players don’t know how to do that. I believe we can dependent on how the squad survives with injury. City can do it if they don’t mentally implode. The Christmas games will be key and how we come out of the next 3 weeks in terms of player availability  will have a serious bearing on the rest of the season.  No more serious injuries and points gathered and then we are gonna be hard to stop

Offline red whine

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #787 on: December 4, 2020, 01:08:25 pm »
City and Spurs are both in the QF of the EFL cup as well. Both should progress and then they will play a two legged semi final. That is an
extra three games each to cram in as well as the hectic Christmas schedule!

Offline J_Kopite

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #788 on: December 4, 2020, 01:10:30 pm »
City and Spurs are both in the QF of the EFL cup as well. Both should progress and then they will play a two legged semi final. That is an
extra three games each to cram in as well as the hectic Christmas schedule!

EFL Cup semis are now single legged ties I'm afraid.

Offline red whine

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #789 on: December 4, 2020, 01:30:41 pm »
still two extra games though or three if they reach the final. Pep always takes this comp seriously and
Jose will want his first trophy for Spurs!

Offline Jookie

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #790 on: December 4, 2020, 01:39:41 pm »
I think we'll get at least 90 points, or if not we'll be 1 or 2 points below at most.

I'm not complaining about our start, I think we've done really well. But our current ppg (2.1) over 38 games would get us just about 80 points with rounding up.

To get at least 90 points, we'd need 69 points from 28 games (~2.5 ppg). We'd only have scope to drop 15 more points over 28 games. We've dropped 9 so far in 10 games. To get 69 points we'd have to win 22, draw 3 and lose 3 over the course of the remainder of the season.

It's not impossible for us to get to 90 points but with our injuries and the fixture congestion across the whole season I wouldn't be betting any money on us getting 90 points. That's not necessarily a lack of faith in our team, it's more my perception that I don't think any team will be getting close to 88-90 points. I'm convinced that something like 82-83 will be enough this season and we are definitely capable of getting to that total and probably slightly higher if needed.

If we get 90 points this season then I'd argue it would be a much bigger achievement than the 99 points last season or the 97 the season before. The current challenge is so much bigger due to long term injuries and the schedule.
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Offline red whine

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #791 on: December 4, 2020, 01:42:10 pm »
I'm not complaining about our start, I think we've done really well. But our current ppg (2.1) over 38 games would get us just about 80 points with rounding up.

To get at least 90 points, we'd need 69 points from 28 games (~2.5 ppg). We'd only have scope to drop 15 more points over 28 games. We've dropped 9 so far in 10 games. To get 69 points we'd have to win 22, draw 3 and lose 3 over the course of the remainder of the season.

It's not impossible for us to get to 90 points but with our injuries and the fixture congestion across the whole season I wouldn't be betting any money on us getting 90 points. That's not necessarily a lack of faith in our team, it's more my perception that I don't think any team will be getting close to 88-90 points. I'm convinced that something like 82-83 will be enough this season and we are definitely capable of getting to that total and probably slightly higher if needed.

If we get 90 points this season then I'd argue it would be a much bigger achievement than the 99 points last season or the 97 the season before. The current challenge is so much bigger due to long term injuries and the schedule.

Totally agree. The only thing going in our favour this season comparfed to last is less pressure as we won it last season.

Offline Jookie

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #792 on: December 4, 2020, 01:47:35 pm »
Totally agree. The only thing going in our favour this season comparfed to last is less pressure as we won it last season.

The good thing is no-one else is getting close to 90 points either unless they dramatically improve their form over the remaining 28-29 games.

City would need to win 24 drew 3 and lose 2 to get to 90 points. They've got scope to drop 12 points for the remaining 29 games. I just don't see that happening personally though they do arguably have the talent to go on a big run.

I also don't see Spurs or Chelsea getting close to 90 points either. Low 80's is possible but nowhere near 90.

If I was offered 85 points now, I'd take it.
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Offline Coolie High

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #793 on: December 4, 2020, 02:53:26 pm »
We will get 90 points, I'm pretty sure about that, I wouldn't take 85 points were much better than that as shown and I believe even Chelsea and Spurs could potentially achieve such a figure or get marginally close to it.

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #794 on: December 4, 2020, 04:45:38 pm »
Forget about the other teams, they are only near us because of a stupid defeat at Villa and two robberies.

Keep it simple and look at ourselves. We start winning and nobody can live with us (inc City). If the injuries don't clear up and we keep dropping points, Chelsea, Spurs and others are well capable of staying in touch or going past us.

One game at a time, need that mindset back again. Hendo is massive in this regard.
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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #795 on: December 4, 2020, 04:51:48 pm »
The title will be won with <86 points this season

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #796 on: December 4, 2020, 06:32:19 pm »
I don't think anybody's getting 90 points this season. High 80s maybe, if we stop our injury rot, or if Man City put on a run or if Spurs get lucky, but 90 points is a bit too hard in this compressed season.

Offline deano2727

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #797 on: December 4, 2020, 07:56:04 pm »
I don't see anyone getting more than 87 points this year. I also don't think that there will be any more than 5 points between 1st and 2nd. 3rd and 4th won't be too far behind that either.

You'd like to hope our terrible luck with injuries and VAR will have to turn at some point (and be taken on by other teams), in which case, we should win the league. If we keep picking up injuries and getting shafted by VAR every week, I don't think we are winning the league.

And if we don't end up winning the league this year, there's no shame in it. We've been unfortunate with injuries and VAR. That's without mentioning the hectic schedule this year, after going through what was a gargantuan effort over the last couple of years.

Honestly, I grow more and more detached from results and outcomes with each passing game. With VAR ruining games (win, lose, or draw) and no fans, it's just not the same - but that's a discussion for another thread.

Keep within 4 points of the top by January, get players back from injury, get some reinforcements and we've got every chance of lifting number 20.

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #798 on: December 4, 2020, 09:53:53 pm »
We're doing it! No team can match us for mentality, desire, hunger and ability. Poor matches, injuries, COVID, refereeing injustice - we 've had it all and look at us... Top of the table in the league and CL  :champ :champ

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Re: Attacking #20
« Reply #799 on: December 4, 2020, 09:55:11 pm »
"The socialism I believe in is everybody working for the same goal and everybody having a share in the rewards. That's how I see football, that's how I see life."