Author Topic: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?  (Read 9694 times)

Offline a partridge in seat_5c

  • blames English football
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,656
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« on: September 24, 2007, 11:23:34 pm »
A long time ago there was this book and it had different chapters and this was supposed to be the best book in the world, right, but then someone said "aye aye, I reckon some dodgy book mechanic's done a cut and shut 'ere and I reckon these chapters have been salvaged from the wreck of another book and don't really belong in the best book in the world at all and I hereby name these other bits the apocrypha"

Fast forward a coupla thousand years and some of the disciples of their best book in the world, the Rafa Benitez footie bible, appear to be casting doubt on the authenticity of the chapter known as the book of rotation. Is it inspired scripture, or apocrypha ?

The latest huffing and puffing appears to surround the rotation of a solitary player, one Fernando Torres : he of the key to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow ; he that was brought in to succeed where others couldn't ; he that hasn't been picked to start in the last 2 league games for reasons I'd rather not know. It's left LFC fans at least mystified, some a little bit irritated, and some downright annoyed.

In the summer, as Torres put pen to paper, many Reds' fans finally started to believe that after re-painting the Forth bridge for 17 years we'd finally got enough of the right quality paint to have a proper go at it and then all go out and get extremely drunk next May.

But then, last week, El Gran Pintor decides that despite having enough of the right quality paint to paint the nicest bridge in the country, he's going to try to see if he can do it using some of the lumpy stuff that we've tried using before.

Putting the lid back on the analogy tin and talking straight football, I'm going to make a statement here that may or may not be true but I feel it is more true than not : that our three nearest rivals rotate less than we do. When I say rotate, let me be totally clear here what I mean. I don't mean not picking a player because he's either injured or suspended. I mean changing a player because the manager simply chooses to, in all likelihood due to a desire to rest said player.

I'm going to take it as a given, that, all things being equal, injuries will apply more or less evenly across the squads of the big 4 over time. I also believe that, given average injuries to each of the 4 squads, our manager, more than his three rivals, will purposefully choose to leave out some of his best players in favour of fresher but not as talented players.

This leads us to one of three possible conclusions :

1) that we have to build a squad of reserves of sufficient quality to be better or at least as good as our rivals' first team players (and of course our own first XI)

2) that we are relying on our 3 rivals having severe injury crises allowing us, once every four seasons on average, to take advantage of having more good players than them available and consequently winning the league in rather an unsatisactory way (but bugger that who'll care less when we're all 526 pints to the good)

3) that Rafa believes that for, oh I don't know, lets say a quarter of the games, a fifth, who really knows for sure, we can play a few players (2? 3? 4? 5?) of inferior quality to our rivals, but who are fresher, and consequently will outperform their more tired superiors over that X game period.


1) is surely the realm of the madman. Are we to believe that we can find a better second eleven than the first elevens of three sides with more money to spend than we've got, even if one of them chooses not to because frankly it appears that they can afford to with the collective eyes for talent at their disposal. Nah.

2) was thrown in facetiously but I'm starting to wonder if there isn't an ounce of truth in there somewhere. It's a war of attrition, lets make sure we don't get as attrited/attrittified/attritched/whatever as our rivals.

3) this is the one we're all supposed to believe isn't it. This is the inspired scripture. What's so irritating about it is that while my gut feeling is that it is a load of old hogwash, my brain can't actually destroy the whole argument by finding a flaw in the logic. I mean, Rafa may just be right, and God knows I want him to be or we're screwed aren't we.


Whereas I mostly lost faith in Houllier the moment I read his theories about having space being more important than possession of the ball, I'm right behind Rafa's ethos on the game, in so far as they are based on logic. Where they appear to be based purely on faith, I'm struggling to believe, and I don't like it.

Some of his recent decisions, looking at them logically, made a bit of sense. If you're going to rotate, Birmingham at home seemed fair enough before kick-off. If you genuinely believe you're going to need a fox-in-the-box and a between-the-lines player, then Kuyt (who has been in good form) and Voronin made sense enough.

Torres' omission at Portsmouth was unforgivable though. He should play every away game. One, because he was bought to make a difference and away games are where he can make most difference. Two, because he's more suited to playing in the bigger spaces away from home.

Back to Birmingham. Having drawn game one of two, at Portsmouth, plan A therefore being 2 points short of a good plan, there were arguments for putting Torres in against Brum, particularly given the upcoming games. A Torresless plan B would no doubt have included having a properly fit Finnan, Carragher, Mascherano and Gerrard. Given the lack of these (Finnan was sensibly left out), the argument for putting Torres in as plan C became more compelling. If you've got nearly half a side of your best players not looking 100% sharp, surely you don't make things worse for yourself by leaving out an apparently perfectly fit star player ?


It's  a storm in a teacup we're told, possibly with lots of justification, after all we are only 4 points off the top (from 6 games sounds less impressive), we are unbeaten and we haven't conceded a goal from open play. Add to that, it's only September and we're above or level with the top 2 from last season. This in itself doesn't fill me with any reassurance whatsoever. I'm not really a faith man, I'm a logic man, and for reassurance I'll search for signs that logically, somewhere, somehow, I should believe that we can do it.

Is there any such sign to draw hope from ? Well, yes I think there is. Much as I feel the rotation policy theory has its flaws, there can't be too much arguing with our form in the second halves of the seasons under Benitez. So, if we COULD, perhaps defying all logic along the way, just stay there or thereabouts until New Year (so only another dozen or so games to defy the logic gods - and odds), there does seem to be an empirical basis to believe that we CAN match the results of our rivals in the 2008 run-in and possibly, just possibly, finally paint that sodding bridge LFC red again.


Is the book of rotation inspired scripture ? or the philosophical arse end of a Renault Laguna ? I don't know but, as downright worrying a read as it can be, if its tenets are applied sensibly I'm not going to write it off just yet...

Offline albertared

  • Left England in 1990 - probably chased by a mob.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,011
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2007, 03:47:06 am »

snip

This leads us to one of three possible conclusions :

1) that we have to build a squad of reserves of sufficient quality to be better or at least as good as our rivals' first team players (and of course our own first XI)

SNIP

1) is surely the realm of the madman. Are we to believe that we can find a better second eleven than the first elevens of three sides with more money to spend than we've got, even if one of them chooses not to because frankly it appears that they can afford to with the collective eyes for talent at their disposal. Nah.


excellent post that presents the issue as many, certainly myself anyway, view it.

we mostly want to believe in Rafa and trust that he has got it right but all the while fearing that he may have it all wrong.

i quoted your theory #1 above because i posted virtually the same thought in another thread just yesterday. someone had suggested that Rafa is building a squad where every position has 2 more or less equally good players competing for a place in the starting 11. i pointed out, as you have done, that the logic of this is that, to be superior to the rest, this means theoretically that we need to have 22 to 24 players who are ALL as good or better than their counterparts in the "other three".

as you say, this is a lunatic idea which even Real Madrid might recognise as overly ambitious.
Left England 1990...still on our perch...I think I'd better come back because it's all gone haywire since!

Offline kkhaku

  • Kaladze
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,194
  • Twitter: k_rrar
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2007, 05:18:07 am »
The way I see it the keyword here is RISK.

Our ambition (i hope) in the PL is to win the title. Not challenge for it, not be in the top 4, but to WIN IT. That means the amount of points you can afford to lose during the course of the season is so minimal, that a draw at home against almost any team can be considered disastrous to our ambitions.

When you don't play your 'best 11' at home against a lower table team, (not because you're forced, but because you want to keep your players fresh as the season progresses) you stand to lose 2 things:

A potentially disastrous blow to your title ambitions.
Drawing heavy criticisim of your mangerial principles, by the media, fans, players, even the board.

If you pull off a win, you stand to gain:

Fresher star players for upcoming matches in the PL and other competitions
Faith in your rotation policy and your managerial ability from those you work with and those you work for.

Rafa obviously had enough faith in the eleven he put out to risk a blow to our title ambitions. The players out there did not repay his faith.

It has nothing to do with the rotation policy itself. It has all to do with the players who are part of the rotation policy and how they perform when called upon - and that's where Rafa's fucked up if you ask me.

We don't have the quality yet to engage in such a risky rotation policy...and even if we do, two of the higher quality core players we have were injured, and one was unfit. Yet Rafa still chooses to leave out another top player. Thats asking for it IMO.
"God is dead." - Freidrich Nietzsche, 1882
"Nietzsche is dead." - God, 1900

Offline TheoRacle

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,542
  • LFC Supporter
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2007, 05:26:07 am »
I don't know if it's naive of me but if I were a top flight manager I would presume to know my best line up for 4-4-2, 4-5-1 and 4-3-3.  I would also presume to know where and when I'd like to play each formation according to whether we're home or away and the opposition and of course the current injuries within the sqaud. 

I'd like to see Rafa consistently put out the same players and by that I mean the absolute strongest line up w.r.t. the strengths and weaknesses of each player when playing in each formation. 

If there are concerns about a player's fitness all well and good - our strong squad should be able to cope and more than adequate cover for that player should be available.

However if Rafa is only concerned about 'freshness' I'd prefer to still see the strongest team start and that player subbed off after it has become evident that he's not having a good day and/or we've already taken the lead.  Sure this may restrict tactical changes during the game but I believe the understanding between the players and 'scaling down' of the amount of changes for any given formation would improve our consistency and hopefully results.

Offline Spanish Fan

  • Battles Babelfish Brilliantly
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,509
  • מגדל בבל
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2007, 06:36:08 am »
Rotation is a complex issue and Benitez is certainly pushing it further than anyone else. But is he right? Only results will tell.
I remember that in the eighties basketball teams in Europe had their "first five" and barely changed those players during a game. Then Alexander Gomelsky, the USSR coach, started to introduce "rotations" during games, spreading the minutes more evenly within all the players of the team. Now every European basketball team change the players around so much that sometimes it is hard to tell who are the most important players and who are not. As a consequence the intensity of the play has increased tenfold.
I think Benitez is trying to implement a similar approach in football. Obviously he can not make multiple substitutions during one game but he can rotate his teams from game to game, especially when there is a midweek game and the players who played last game are not at the pick of their physical condition. When there is only one game per week he rotates less.

This approach has helped his sides to finish stronger,  and the two CH L finals Liverpool have played with a "not so great squad" are testament to that.  People say that he is yet to crack the League but I think it is more accurate to say that Benitez is yet to crack the league during the first half of the season.
If I am not mistaken Liverpool got more points than anyone else during the second half of the 2005 2006 season, and last season they were keeping up with United and Chelsea until the draw against Everton when they let go as it had become impossible to catch the leaders and they put all their efforts and concentration in the Ch L.
The problem nowadays is that you can't afford to have a dodgy start like Man United used to have during the 90's and then catch up during the second half of the season. Now the winners lose very few points, at least for the past 4 seasons.

 Let's not forget that Benitez also "rotates" for tactical reasons like in the Birmingham game, leaving Torres on the bench because he thought other strikers may be more suitable for that game. On this issue he also takes a different route to other coaches who tend to build a squad where they have a recognisable first choice 11. In the case of Benitez and especially when talking about strikers it is far more difficult to tell which players are first choice. Other than hardworking I find it very difficult to categorise the players Benitez signs. Just compare the attributes of Alonso as a player or Sissoko. You wouldn't think that the same coach signed (and plays regularly) both.
 At Liverpool he has his tall striker, his quick striker, his hardworking striker and his in between the lines striker. You look at Manchester squad and they don't have that variety in their forward line. They buy players who suit one style of play that they will play in most games. On the other hand Liverpool may completely change their style, depending on the players selected, the opposition or if it is a home or away . That rarely happens with United (they did change against Liverpool ;D). Also let's not forget that Liverpool style of play is very demanding for the players and players may need more rotation. And as I am digressing I finish it here.

Perhaps what Benitez needs is a 10 year plan to implement all these different tactical possibilities and the 30 players all equally good squad ;D

利物浦, 리버풀, Λίβερπουλ, リヴァプール, ليفربول, Liberpul

Offline albertared

  • Left England in 1990 - probably chased by a mob.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,011
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2007, 06:45:53 am »
I don't know if it's naive of me but if I were a top flight manager I would presume to know my best line up for 4-4-2, 4-5-1 and 4-3-3.  I would also presume to know where and when I'd like to play each formation according to whether we're home or away and the opposition and of course the current injuries within the sqaud. 

I'd like to see Rafa consistently put out the same players and by that I mean the absolute strongest line up w.r.t. the strengths and weaknesses of each player when playing in each formation. 

If there are concerns about a player's fitness all well and good - our strong squad should be able to cope and more than adequate cover for that player should be available.

However if Rafa is only concerned about 'freshness' I'd prefer to still see the strongest team start and that player subbed off after it has become evident that he's not having a good day and/or we've already taken the lead.  Sure this may restrict tactical changes during the game but I believe the understanding between the players and 'scaling down' of the amount of changes for any given formation would improve our consistency and hopefully results.

good post. a further thought i have is this...if we presume each player has a finite amount of capacity to train and play in a season why wouldn't we reduce the training minutes to enable more playing minutes? surely overall fitness levels would be similar. if so, then the best players could play most games and still be kept fresh, especially if they can be withdrawn for the last 15 or 20 minutes of games we have got won comfortably (although i hate this practice for several reasons i won't go into now).
Left England 1990...still on our perch...I think I'd better come back because it's all gone haywire since!

Offline Spanish Fan

  • Battles Babelfish Brilliantly
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,509
  • מגדל בבל
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2007, 07:11:54 am »
One thing I forgot to say (on this thread) about rotation. The idea behind rotating a player in top form is that it is much more difficult to bring a player back to top form when he is already tired.
利物浦, 리버풀, Λίβερπουλ, リヴァプール, ليفربول, Liberpul

Offline GBF

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 19,033
  • The only religion with a God that you can touch!
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2007, 07:25:05 am »
Either you are over analysing a simple thing for nothing or you are Rafa ;D
01111001 01101111 01110101 00100111 01101100 01101100 00100000 01101110 01100101 01110110 01100101 01110010 00100000 01110111 01100001 01101100 01101011 00100000 01100001 01101100 01101111 01101110 01100101

Offline kermit^

  • Anny Roader
  • ****
  • Posts: 358
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2007, 07:41:53 am »
One thing I forgot to say (on this thread) about rotation. The idea behind rotating a player in top form is that it is much more difficult to bring a player back to top form when he is already tired.


Good point. Because if a player is tired, and he is not rotated, it will lead to a drop of form. At that moment there are two problems, tired and not on form. Hence rotation then will only solve one problem and not the other. By rotating early before a player get tired, his form will not suffer and he should be back being fresh and (hopefully) continue his form.   :rollseyes ;D

All this rotation talk driving me crazy. Let's get back to winning ways and all will be fine.

I do agree with your view on rotation though.  :)
« Last Edit: September 25, 2007, 07:43:28 am by kermit^ »
LFC (Liverpool F*ck-up Cycle):
1. new owner(s) says all the right things to win us over
2. give the mgr some money to spend
3. refinance the club with debts behind our back
4. got found out by us
5. sale process all over again
*meanwhile during the cycle, we'll be around mid-table challenging for 4th spot.

Offline Jens from Sweden

  • "We havent bid for him and never will. Torres wont come here someone fucking quote me on this"
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 998
  • Momo Sissoko- size does matter
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2007, 08:09:16 am »
Rafa believes in players who are prepared, mentally as well as physically.

Thatīs about all there is to it. It gave Valencia two successive league titles so itīs obviously a good thing to have around. 
the more i look at it the more i think with mourihno in charge of us w'd have a better chance of winning the league.
I quoted you so we all can laugh at your foolness.

Offline hawkwing

  • Main Stander
  • ***
  • Posts: 164
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2007, 10:00:26 am »
sorry guys

last year all top 3 clubs made 118 changes to their starting line ups throughout the season so rotation was the same - we do it in the cups more than the others which makes it appear worse.

i personally agree with the notion of rotation but not the people picked.

against portsmouth any person could tell you that campbell and distin would rather play against crouch so i would have played babel and kuyt up front as kuyt had not played for holland and babel would be pacey and unknown to them

i would then have played crouch and torres away at porto for similar reasons and then played crouch and kuyt against birmingham - liam ridgewell is tiny and we should have gone with diagonal and long balls with stevie running off them.

i would liek to see crouchie and torres together more often but doubt we will.
"It's a great economic model. People are worried that I might take
money away from the Rangers to go to Liverpool. It's just the reverse.
Liverpool is going to pull off lots of extra money that if I choose I
can use for the Rangers or Stars."
Tom Hicks on Liverpool FC

Offline shanklyboy

  • OCB Enforcer.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,591
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2007, 10:21:40 am »
Putting the lid back on the analogy tin and talking straight football, I'm going to make a statement here that may or may not be true but I feel it is more true than not : that our three nearest rivals rotate less than we do. When I say rotate, let me be totally clear here what I mean. I don't mean not picking a player because he's either injured or suspended. I mean changing a player because the manager simply chooses to, in all likelihood due to a desire to rest said player.


Here are some details from a book called The football review.


Table 1.1 Top-10 teams in starting line-up changes-per-game in 2006/07
Rank   Team   Changes-per-game
1   Man United                3.19
2   Liverpool                   3.19
3   Newcastle                 2.84
4   Chelsea                    2.73
5   Arsenal                     2.62
6   Sheff United              2.51
7   Tottenham                2.49
8   West Ham                 2.43
9   Charlton                   2.41
10   Portsmouth             2.27

Probably one of the biggest myths blown away by our research last year was that Rafa Benitez was not in fact the runaway winner in the ‘rotation’ stakes as other sources love to report (Table 1.1). The actual truth of the matter was that Mr. Ferguson and Rafa Benitez made the exact same number of changes to their starting line-ups throughout last season. In fact, when entering the final game of the season Sir Alex was ahead by five changes. Benitez, in deciding to rest players before their Champions League Final, made nine changes to his starting line-up for the final game of the season, whereas Ferguson made only four.
Additionally, Ferguson might have been the more likely manager of the two to stick with the same starting eleven in consecutive games (four compared to 0 for Benitez), but he was also the more likely to make five or more changes to his line-up (ten compared with eight for Benitez). In fact, had it not been for Liverpool’s success in the Champions League, that last statistic would not have ended so close, because with ten games remaining in the season Ferguson had made more than five changes on nine occasions to Benitez’s four.
Taking everything into account the two managers were essentially equal in terms of their rotation policy. There were subtle differences, but the overall figures were the same. Or were they?
According to Hansen on MOTD Ferguson has always rotated more at home, but kept a stable line-up when playing away. This statement was used to imply that Rafa Benitez does not do the same, after making multiple changes for Liverpool’s away clash with Portsmouth this past weekend. To investigate this statement we cannot simple use our game-to-game rotation data, since to keep a stable team away and a ‘rotated’ team at home would show up as numerous changes-per-game flipping from the stable team to the rotated team. To research this we basically used the same method, but looked at the changes made by each manager to their home and away line-ups in isolation of each other. We treated the first game of the season both home and away as the baseline and calculated the changes-per-game each manager made from then on (Table 1.2).
Table 1.2 Ferguson versus Benitez Home and Away rotation in 2006/07

                                            Changes-per-game     Same     5 or more       2 or less
Ferguson Home-toHome                    4.00                       0                8                   3
Away-toAway                                 2.61                       3               4                  10

Benitez Home-to-Home                     3.11                      0                4                   7
Away-to-Away                               3.06                      0                3                  10

On first look you might think Hansen was spot on, but the matter is more complicated once you scratch the surface. Ferguson did indeed rotate much more at home than he did away. He made a massive 4.00 changes-per-game last season in home contests and only 2.61 changes-per-game away. The statement of a more stable away side is relative in terms of Manchester United, but put into the context of the league as a whole it still represented an incredibly high number of changes.
For Benitez the split between home and away looks fairly even, however the average figure is clouded by the nine changes made by Benitez before Liverpool’s away contest at Portsmouth the weekend before their Champions League semi-final second leg against Chelsea. Remove that figure and Benitez made 2.71 changes-per-game in away contests last season – a similar figure to that of Ferguson’s.
Add to that knowledge that the median number of changes made by each manager in away games was two and that both managers made two or less changes from between away games a total of 10 times and it is hard to say definitively that Benitez rotated more than Ferguson away from home. Both look for slightly more stability away from home and make fewer changes away than they do overall. Therefore, the single biggest difference between the two (last year at least) is actually how much more Ferguson rotates at home than Benitez.
So far this season there is too few data to make any meaningful conclusion. However, Benitez has made three more changes than the United manager in one less contest. It is also true that Ferguson’s options have been severely reduced by injury in the early games, with many major players missing and consequently making quality rotation impossible.
It was refreshing to finally hear someone bring some reality to the debate. However, the full truth was still not revealed. All teams rotate through injury, fitness and tactics to some extent, but some more than others. Benitez and Ferguson were definitely the runaway leaders last season, but while one was criticised the other used essentially the same policy and won the title without even a column inch on the subject.
When will smart analysis of games return?
http://www.thefootballreview.co.uk/articles/article.aspx?id=23


« Last Edit: September 25, 2007, 10:28:17 am by shanklyboy »
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.

John F. Kennedy.
www.savelfc.org

Offline The Nihilists

  • Bovvered
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,838
  • I will cut off your Johnson
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2007, 10:51:39 am »
Nice post, Shanklyboy. I've just ordered that book.

I have previously read that Mourinho also made 3.19 changes each game in 2005/06 when they won the title.

Offline walshys_mullet

  • Aka walshys_mullet. Thinks manager is a coward. Only posts in match threads every other week due to rotation. We suspect this is John Aldridge or Andy Gray posting under a pseudonym.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,615
  • We all live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2007, 11:06:40 am »
No one will ever convince me Rotation is what wins you leagues - at least not in the premiership. its a fundamentally flawed concept. yes of course rotating players will of course keep players fresher later on in the season, but either way its an ultimate massive gamble becuase you will be relying on 'weaker' players to chalk up points when the better players are taking a break. Across 38 league games about a third of them, going by rotation will be played minus the big game players - it stands to reason. And im afraid Liverpool do not have like for like quality, they do not. If we had we'd have pissed this league by now no doubt. We do have good players, but they are all not on the same level and crucially they all have different qualities, great for the odd tactical masterplan in certain games but like for like? it just doesnt work.

I read many stating that Kuyt/Voronin surely should have been good enough saturday. In theory i agree - but its what they bring to the table in a match thats the key. Torres and Kuyt are not the same players, Voronin and Kuyt bar a minor shift in pace and movement between them are the same type of player so bring the same qualities to the table, and unfortunately for us it didnt work against Birmingham.

My beef with Rafa is that he's too statistically driven. As an aid its fine to use statistics, but theres so much more football than statistics and systems, as anyone will know if they have played the game at a decent level. Its all about state of mind, focus, belief and confidence stuff you cant measure on a computer. And one thing rotation can do in the long run is destroy or demolarise this. If your a striker, say Torres for example and youve just banged in two goals before an international break and you've generally been in really good form in the last 4 league starts, you want that to continue barring injury - but thats not what happened. hes come back to find himself out of the team, thats enough to kick anyone in the bollocks and derail them. Players thrive on form, confidence builds from it. Equally being able to play with teh same players week in, week out builds understanding for each others game. Kuyt has been brilliant with Torres - hes looked the part, rather than just a grafter, since been split from the partnership hes started to look a grafter again and not much else. Big players improve lesser players games. I know,  in a particular team i played for we had a Forward, his character was tempormental at best off the field and the manager would try and bring him down a peg or two and would leave him out - but when he did we suffered, i suffered because i knew going out on the pitch we had less of a chance of winning the match, when he was put back in the whole team would be lifted to see him there because they knew he could be the difference between winning and losing, and he was a cracking player. When i was younger i played against Carra a lot, as well as with him, and i was a defender and he in those days an attacker, and he was very, very good. And believe me when i say, when i found out on the odd occasion he couldnt play for whatever reason it was a great lift and we performed better.

Football is all pyscological(sp?) its very fine and players can stand and fall on their mentality. We have a mangager who, as good as he is, basis a lot of his management on hard stats. Players if told they are knackered and need resting will eventually feel it in a mental way, when your'e winning you dont feel tired, you just want to play everygame, the adrenaline is surging and your feeling good. you cant achieve that by swapping people in and out.

Some may point to the CL success as successful use of rotation - well yes it is. BUT the important thing here is that he never really rotated the CL team in CL games, he kept the core best players for that competition which is why we won it, he only rotated in the league games which is where we struggled, as he fought to keep the best players fit. So in a way that proves that fighting on four fronts, unless you have like for like quality in all areas where sadly we do not at this moment, rotation will never work. We may pull it off this year who knows, anything is possible, but i think the odds are stacked against us, unless we play a settled core and rotate the weaker players around them.
"If you're in the penalty area and don't know what to do with the ball, put it in the net and we'll discuss the options later."

The Great 'Should have been Sir' Bob Paisley

Offline walshys_mullet

  • Aka walshys_mullet. Thinks manager is a coward. Only posts in match threads every other week due to rotation. We suspect this is John Aldridge or Andy Gray posting under a pseudonym.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,615
  • We all live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2007, 11:07:50 am »
Here are some details from a book called The football review.


Table 1.1 Top-10 teams in starting line-up changes-per-game in 2006/07
Rank   Team   Changes-per-game
1   Man United                3.19
2   Liverpool                   3.19
3   Newcastle                 2.84
4   Chelsea                    2.73
5   Arsenal                     2.62
6   Sheff United              2.51
7   Tottenham                2.49
8   West Ham                 2.43
9   Charlton                   2.41
10   Portsmouth             2.27

Probably one of the biggest myths blown away by our research last year was that Rafa Benitez was not in fact the runaway winner in the ?rotation? stakes as other sources love to report (Table 1.1). The actual truth of the matter was that Mr. Ferguson and Rafa Benitez made the exact same number of changes to their starting line-ups throughout last season. In fact, when entering the final game of the season Sir Alex was ahead by five changes. Benitez, in deciding to rest players before their Champions League Final, made nine changes to his starting line-up for the final game of the season, whereas Ferguson made only four.
Additionally, Ferguson might have been the more likely manager of the two to stick with the same starting eleven in consecutive games (four compared to 0 for Benitez), but he was also the more likely to make five or more changes to his line-up (ten compared with eight for Benitez). In fact, had it not been for Liverpool?s success in the Champions League, that last statistic would not have ended so close, because with ten games remaining in the season Ferguson had made more than five changes on nine occasions to Benitez?s four.
Taking everything into account the two managers were essentially equal in terms of their rotation policy. There were subtle differences, but the overall figures were the same. Or were they?
According to Hansen on MOTD Ferguson has always rotated more at home, but kept a stable line-up when playing away. This statement was used to imply that Rafa Benitez does not do the same, after making multiple changes for Liverpool?s away clash with Portsmouth this past weekend. To investigate this statement we cannot simple use our game-to-game rotation data, since to keep a stable team away and a ?rotated? team at home would show up as numerous changes-per-game flipping from the stable team to the rotated team. To research this we basically used the same method, but looked at the changes made by each manager to their home and away line-ups in isolation of each other. We treated the first game of the season both home and away as the baseline and calculated the changes-per-game each manager made from then on (Table 1.2).
Table 1.2 Ferguson versus Benitez Home and Away rotation in 2006/07

                                            Changes-per-game     Same     5 or more       2 or less
Ferguson Home-toHome                    4.00                       0                8                   3
Away-toAway                                 2.61                       3               4                  10

Benitez Home-to-Home                     3.11                      0                4                   7
Away-to-Away                               3.06                      0                3                  10

On first look you might think Hansen was spot on, but the matter is more complicated once you scratch the surface. Ferguson did indeed rotate much more at home than he did away. He made a massive 4.00 changes-per-game last season in home contests and only 2.61 changes-per-game away. The statement of a more stable away side is relative in terms of Manchester United, but put into the context of the league as a whole it still represented an incredibly high number of changes.
For Benitez the split between home and away looks fairly even, however the average figure is clouded by the nine changes made by Benitez before Liverpool?s away contest at Portsmouth the weekend before their Champions League semi-final second leg against Chelsea. Remove that figure and Benitez made 2.71 changes-per-game in away contests last season ? a similar figure to that of Ferguson?s.
Add to that knowledge that the median number of changes made by each manager in away games was two and that both managers made two or less changes from between away games a total of 10 times and it is hard to say definitively that Benitez rotated more than Ferguson away from home. Both look for slightly more stability away from home and make fewer changes away than they do overall. Therefore, the single biggest difference between the two (last year at least) is actually how much more Ferguson rotates at home than Benitez.
So far this season there is too few data to make any meaningful conclusion. However, Benitez has made three more changes than the United manager in one less contest. It is also true that Ferguson?s options have been severely reduced by injury in the early games, with many major players missing and consequently making quality rotation impossible.
It was refreshing to finally hear someone bring some reality to the debate. However, the full truth was still not revealed. All teams rotate through injury, fitness and tactics to some extent, but some more than others. Benitez and Ferguson were definitely the runaway leaders last season, but while one was criticised the other used essentially the same policy and won the title without even a column inch on the subject.
When will smart analysis of games return?
http://www.thefootballreview.co.uk/articles/article.aspx?id=23




Its not the rotation, its who is rotated. you cant tell me we are better off with 'lesser' players in the team in place of 'more able' players.
"If you're in the penalty area and don't know what to do with the ball, put it in the net and we'll discuss the options later."

The Great 'Should have been Sir' Bob Paisley

Offline Redshadow

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,688
  • Wir schaffen es diesmal mit Herrn Klopp
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2007, 11:13:16 am »
shanklyboy, that's what I call a balanced article!
Top draw!
Whatever an education is, it should make you a unique individual, not a conformist; it should furnish you with an original spirit to tackle big challenges; it should allow you to find values to road map through life; it should make you spiritually rich, a person who loves whatever you are doing, wherever you are.

Offline Spanish Fan

  • Battles Babelfish Brilliantly
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,509
  • מגדל בבל
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2007, 11:23:06 am »
I think a more accurate way to look at the rotation issue is to check the number of minutes played by each member of the squad against the total mumber of minutes the player was available. In this way you could find which players are less likely to be rotated, how many players do enter in the rotations, etc.
I have the feeling that Benitez have a smaller number of core players that are unlikely to be rotated and that he has more players that enter the rotations even if the number of changes per game is similar to that of Ferguson. Also we should compare the rotations made in all competitions, not only in the league.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2007, 11:26:31 am by Spanish Fan »
利物浦, 리버풀, Λίβερπουλ, リヴァプール, ليفربول, Liberpul

Offline Fat Scouser

  • Trolley Dolly with a 54 2/3 inch waist - last seen shopping on Scottie Road for speedos. Is just a bit.....you know.....
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 23,906
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2007, 03:25:21 pm »
I know times have changed, but when a young journalist asked, "What's the team next week, Mister Shankly?"
The great man replied, "Same as last week, son, same as last week"
Who am I to doubt The Shanks.
"A peasant you are. A peasant you will remain. And we shall use all our wealth and power, to make your lot even worse and keep you exactly where you are, Bondage!"    The Boy King, Richard II, after  putting down the The Peasants Revolt in 1381.

http://misterinobody.weebly.com/

Offline shanklyboy

  • OCB Enforcer.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,591
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2007, 03:58:45 pm »
I think a more accurate way to look at the rotation issue is to check the number of minutes played by each member of the squad against the total mumber of minutes the player was available. In this way you could find which players are less likely to be rotated, how many players do enter in the rotations, etc.I have the feeling that Benitez have a smaller number of core players that are unlikely to be rotated and that he has more players that enter the rotations even if the number of changes per game is similar to that of Ferguson. Also we should compare the rotations made in all competitions, not only in the league.

I'll post this again for the umpteenth time. Prior to Saturdays game:

PLAYER      GAMES PLAYED      MINUTES ON PITCH       GOALS

VORONIN             6                       257                             3
KUYT                  5                       357                             3
TORRES               7                       383                             3

Make your own mind up about wether our 'best player' is constantly being left out of the team.
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.

John F. Kennedy.
www.savelfc.org

Offline shanklyboy

  • OCB Enforcer.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,591
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2007, 04:01:53 pm »
I know times have changed, but when a young journalist asked, "What's the team next week, Mister Shankly?"
The great man replied, "Same as last week, son, same as last week"
Who am I to doubt The Shanks.

I think he actually said "Same as last season ".

Great quote all the same !
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.

John F. Kennedy.
www.savelfc.org

Offline walshys_mullet

  • Aka walshys_mullet. Thinks manager is a coward. Only posts in match threads every other week due to rotation. We suspect this is John Aldridge or Andy Gray posting under a pseudonym.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,615
  • We all live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2007, 04:37:03 pm »
I'll post this again for the umpteenth time. Prior to Saturdays game:

PLAYER      GAMES PLAYED      MINUTES ON PITCH       GOALS

VORONIN             6                       257                             3
KUYT                  5                       357                             3
TORRES               7                       383                             3

Make your own mind up about wether our 'best player' is constantly being left out of the team.

i swear people are fucking blind. Stats stats and bloody stats.

USE YOUR EYES.
"If you're in the penalty area and don't know what to do with the ball, put it in the net and we'll discuss the options later."

The Great 'Should have been Sir' Bob Paisley

Offline walshys_mullet

  • Aka walshys_mullet. Thinks manager is a coward. Only posts in match threads every other week due to rotation. We suspect this is John Aldridge or Andy Gray posting under a pseudonym.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,615
  • We all live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2007, 04:43:50 pm »
I'll post this again for the umpteenth time. Prior to Saturdays game:

PLAYER      GAMES PLAYED      MINUTES ON PITCH       GOALS

VORONIN             6                       257                             3
KUYT                  5                       357                             3
TORRES               7                       383                             3

Make your own mind up about wether our 'best player' is constantly being left out of the team.

Just forget your stats for a moment, and answer this question. Out of all 4 strikers we posses based on all round ability who would be the first on your teamsheet?
"If you're in the penalty area and don't know what to do with the ball, put it in the net and we'll discuss the options later."

The Great 'Should have been Sir' Bob Paisley

Offline shanklyboy

  • OCB Enforcer.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,591
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2007, 06:18:39 pm »
Just forget your stats for a moment, and answer this question. Out of all 4 strikers we posses based on all round ability who would be the first on your teamsheet?

Torres, but that's not the question I was answering.
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.

John F. Kennedy.
www.savelfc.org

Offline shanklyboy

  • OCB Enforcer.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,591
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2007, 06:23:14 pm »
i swear people are fucking blind. Stats stats and bloody stats.

USE YOUR EYES.

I'm not blind, but you must have something wrong with your eyes as you can't see the question I was answering.
Here it is again, and if you can find a way of answering it without using stats you are a better man than I am

I think a more accurate way to look at the rotation issue is to check the number of minutes played by each member of the squad against the total mumber of minutes the player was available.
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.

John F. Kennedy.
www.savelfc.org

Offline GeorgiaRed

  • Anny Roader
  • ****
  • Posts: 423
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2007, 08:51:16 pm »
The way I see it the keyword here is RISK.

Our ambition (i hope) in the PL is to win the title. Not challenge for it, not be in the top 4, but to WIN IT. That means the amount of points you can afford to lose during the course of the season is so minimal, that a draw at home against almost any team can be considered disastrous to our ambitions.

In the chase to win the PL does a  draw against a side like Birmingham at home necessitate a victory at one of the top four's grounds to make up for it? I would think that beating Birmingham at their place is something that everyone would expect if we are to win the title. But as someone mentioned on another thread that even Rafa was disappointed at the draw against B-ham where as he accepted the draw away to Pompey and Porto as fine results. 

I guess to make a long story short after my ramblings I should have asked: Does dropping points at home to lower sides mean the need for victories at Arsenal, ManU, Chelsea?

Offline PaulF

  • https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/paulfelce
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,656
  • Nothing feels as good as fat tastes.
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #25 on: September 26, 2007, 08:27:39 am »
My few thoughts.

Point #1 isn't perhaps completely ridiculous. Our 2nd XI doesn't need to be as good as our rivals' first XI, it merely has to be good enough to beat the teams Rafa chooses to use it against. It's percieved tha tthere is a huge gulf between the top four and the rest of the league and in 'theory' a weakend side should be good enough to beat a lot of the other sides (not a theory I agree with).  In another thread someone was chastising Gerrard for playing for England vs Israel, saying why wasn't he left out as almost any Englad team could beat Israel.  I suppose Rafa is applying the same theory, almost any Liverpool team should beat Birmingham. 

The Gerrard injury point highlights another issue.  What if Gerrard HAD missed the Israel and Russia games and we were to face Pompey with him having been rested for two games, if he was 'almost' fit, should we play him or rest him? We've got the best midfield in the world so surely rotating him out and getting him fully fit is the right thing to do? Did Torres come back from international duty with a minor knock that Rafa didn't want to aggravate?

Crouch vs Pompey - Distin and Campbell might be happy playing against Crouch but for the first half hour he gave Glenn Johnston a torrid time, we saw at Anfield when he came with Chelsea how poor he was in the air. Rafa clearly saw a weakness in the Porstmouth side and he felt Crouch was the right man to exploit it.

Fergie may have rotated his team as much last season as us, but he kept his 'star' players on the pitch whenever he could. You didn't see a fully fit Ronaldo or Rooney sitting on the bench.  Fergie's problems in defence due to injury last season were were well documented and probably accounted for a lot of the changes. Changes I am sure he would not have made if his hand wasn't forced.

Finally I think Rafa rotates not just to keep players fresh but to change the approach of the team depending on our opponents. I believe in a way we find this doubly frustrating because, barring the occasional blip, we can see Man Utd steamroll over anyone who is put in front of them .  I think it would be easier on the fans, and maybe the players, if we saw perhaps 3 Rafa teams, the short sharp passing team, the running team, the counter attack team or something like that, just so we and the team knew how they were supposed to be playing!

"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

Offline walshys_mullet

  • Aka walshys_mullet. Thinks manager is a coward. Only posts in match threads every other week due to rotation. We suspect this is John Aldridge or Andy Gray posting under a pseudonym.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,615
  • We all live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2007, 10:51:56 am »
Torres, but that's not the question I was answering.

Thank you and goodnight!
"If you're in the penalty area and don't know what to do with the ball, put it in the net and we'll discuss the options later."

The Great 'Should have been Sir' Bob Paisley

Offline walshys_mullet

  • Aka walshys_mullet. Thinks manager is a coward. Only posts in match threads every other week due to rotation. We suspect this is John Aldridge or Andy Gray posting under a pseudonym.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,615
  • We all live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #27 on: September 26, 2007, 10:54:24 am »

Crouch vs Pompey - Distin and Campbell might be happy playing against Crouch but for the first half hour he gave Glenn Johnston a torrid time, we saw at Anfield when he came with Chelsea how poor he was in the air. Rafa clearly saw a weakness in the Porstmouth side and he felt Crouch was the right man to exploit it.


Yeah excellent. nothing like Having Crouch out wide challenging for the ball and Voronin twenty yards away and nowhere near - and it only lasted 20 minutes as Johnson got the hang of him eventually.

You had benayoun trying to play off him but he wasnt fast enough.
"If you're in the penalty area and don't know what to do with the ball, put it in the net and we'll discuss the options later."

The Great 'Should have been Sir' Bob Paisley

Offline shanklyboy

  • OCB Enforcer.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,591
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #28 on: September 26, 2007, 11:58:34 am »
Thank you and goodnight!

I wouldn't play him in every game though.

I like the way you only see part of my answer and ignore the rest.
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.

John F. Kennedy.
www.savelfc.org

Offline PaulF

  • https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/paulfelce
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,656
  • Nothing feels as good as fat tastes.
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #29 on: September 26, 2007, 12:37:32 pm »
Yeah excellent. nothing like Having Crouch out wide challenging for the ball and Voronin twenty yards away and nowhere near - and it only lasted 20 minutes as Johnson got the hang of him eventually.

You had benayoun trying to play off him but he wasnt fast enough.

Agreed, but you could clearly see what Rafa was trying to do. Admittedly it was painfully obvious.
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

Offline walshys_mullet

  • Aka walshys_mullet. Thinks manager is a coward. Only posts in match threads every other week due to rotation. We suspect this is John Aldridge or Andy Gray posting under a pseudonym.
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,615
  • We all live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #30 on: September 26, 2007, 01:00:39 pm »
I think people seem to think you hate the manager when your posting your grievences, but i dont, i think hes quality. i just worry we can be our own worst enemy and are much more capable of doing our own chances damage than the actual opposition.

by the way Shanklyboy, your post above was very well reasoned and written. didnt say so before.
"If you're in the penalty area and don't know what to do with the ball, put it in the net and we'll discuss the options later."

The Great 'Should have been Sir' Bob Paisley

Offline lionel_messias

  • likes pulling cocker spaniels out of Kim Kardassian's ass
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 16,449
  • 'You can throw your plan in the purple bin'
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #31 on: September 26, 2007, 03:43:08 pm »
Rafa believes in players who are prepared, mentally as well as physically.

Thatīs about all there is to it. It gave Valencia two successive league titles so itīs obviously a good thing to have around. 

Mmm, but not so obvious. Some players need to feel fully backed by their manager and also need a run of games to get to full speed. Up front is one area where momentum and feeling mentally 100% is paramount. Look at Peter Crouch now. He is not sure of himself and he snatches at chances.

Rafa knows better than me, but I think you play your best players for a decent run of games, then gradually rest them before they get burnt out, i.e start Torres for a run of 6 or 7 league games, then give him 60 mins maybe, then rest him for a bit.

The other thing is, in the Premiership, you need pace up front, so we need to either play Torres or Babel up front for most of the games.
Follow me on twatter: @JDMessias

Offline Spanish Fan

  • Battles Babelfish Brilliantly
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,509
  • מגדל בבל
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #32 on: September 28, 2007, 01:46:57 am »

Make your own mind up about wether our 'best player' is constantly being left out of the team.


Never said so, never implied so, and never said that Torres is Liverpool best player.
What I am saying is that two teams may make  the same number of changes per game, and team A may be using, let's say, 18 players in the rotations, and Team B 24.
Also team A may have 7 players that they barely rotate and Team B may have only 5 of those.

And looking at the minutes played by every member of the squad (taking into account injuries and suspensions) will give a more revealing picture on how managers rotate their players.
利物浦, 리버풀, Λίβερπουλ, リヴァプール, ليفربول, Liberpul

Offline PaulF

  • https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/paulfelce
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,656
  • Nothing feels as good as fat tastes.
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #33 on: September 28, 2007, 08:05:39 am »
Never said so, never implied so, and never said that Torres is Liverpool best player.
What I am saying is that two teams may make  the same number of changes per game, and team A may be using, let's say, 18 players in the rotations, and Team B 24.
Also team A may have 7 players that they barely rotate and Team B may have only 5 of those.

And looking at the minutes played by every member of the squad (taking into account injuries and suspensions) will give a more revealing picture on how managers rotate their players.

Are you Kaizer in disguise?
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

Offline a partridge in seat_5c

  • blames English football
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,656
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #34 on: September 29, 2007, 08:34:27 pm »
I think a more accurate way to look at the rotation issue is to check the number of minutes played by each member of the squad against the total mumber of minutes the player was available. In this way you could find which players are less likely to be rotated, how many players do enter in the rotations, etc.
I have the feeling that Benitez have a smaller number of core players that are unlikely to be rotated and that he has more players that enter the rotations even if the number of changes per game is similar to that of Ferguson.

Yeah, that's a good point. Hadn't thought of analysing it like that.

Maybe identify the strongest XI players available to each side, injury-permitting, and then see what percentage of matches this core XI play over the course of the season. My guess is that our core XI (whatever it may be - if in doubt, players with the most appearances I guess) would play a lower percentage than the other 3 sides.


We played what looked like a strong side against a side we'd expect to batter today and it sounds like we struggled to victory, which again underlines to me that rotation isn't the issue per se, it's more about when its done and who is rotated. I was mildly satisfied to beat Reading the other night but I'm still stunned Torres was on the field.

Offline Yorkykopite

  • Misses Danny Boy with a passion. Phil's Official Biographer, dontcherknow...it's all true. Honestly.
  • RAWK Writer
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 34,220
  • The first five yards........
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #35 on: September 30, 2007, 04:36:55 pm »
I enjoyed the post Partridge and agree with much of what you said (especially about Houllier), but I'm not sure you did justice to the best argument against rotation.

Before saying what that is, let's look at the last two league games. For the match against Birmingham you make what, on the face of it, looks to be an excellent point:

Some of his recent decisions, looking at them logically, made a bit of sense. If you're going to rotate, Birmingham at home seemed fair enough before kick-off. If you genuinely believe you're going to need a fox-in-the-box and a between-the-lines player, then Kuyt (who has been in good form) and Voronin made sense enough.

You're right. The team that Rafa put out should have beaten lowly Birmingham. That's why we have a big squad isn't it? So that our second eleven can the beat the likes of Brum, Derby, Fulham etc, perhaps all the way up to Villa and Everton. That's the theory. Yet against Brum we came unstuck.

As for Wigan yesterday:

We played what looked like a strong side against a side we'd expect to batter today and it sounds like we struggled to victory, which again underlines to me that rotation isn't the issue per se.

We should have battered them, I agree. But the fact that we put out our strongest available line up (I'm ignoring Riise obviously) and still escaped with a lucky win can hardly be said to justify your conclusion "that rotation isn't the issue per se". For this was still a rotated team, regardless of the fact that it was a stronger one than played Birmingham 7 days before.

So that's two different teams in two different matches both which should have breezed past far inferior opponents. Yet both teams struggled. Alonso's forced absence might explain a lot, but perhaps it had something to do with rotation too. Both teams, to me, looked like a collection of talented strangers.

The best argument for not rotating is that a winning team with familiar faces builds a corps d'espirit. Something inexplicable happens to teams like this. They seem to become telepathic. They take to the field with the electricity of last week's victory still humming through their bodies. In royhendo's post in 'Opinion' he quotes this piece:

http://www.thisisanfield.com/columnists/2007/09/the-fool-on-the-hill/

I read that and agreed with it - not the bit about Rafa being an autocrat which royhendo deals with well, but the bit that says "organic" things happen to successful teams which are beyond the control of even great coaches. Indeed that great coaches allow for this and encourage it. But how much easier it must be for these organic things to happen in a team that is consistently playing together?

Let's be honest. In a squad that contains 20-25 players who all think they should be playing can there ever be the corps d'espirit that you get in a team of say 15? I don't think so. Inevitably, in the bigger squad, you will always get players hoping that teammates fail. That's human nature. The bigger squad the more these feelings can be rationalised by each jilted player.

I want to be fair though. Because it's said by Rafa that the best argument for rotation is tiredness. That a rotated team in September and October = a fresh and energetic team in April and May. There's obviously truth in this, though the thing that surely creates more energy than anything from February on is a team that can see the Title on the horizon. That's why old men like Garry McAllister can play twice, three a times a week, towards the end of the season without their football in any way suffering. The smell of victory keeps 'em going.
"If you want the world to love you don't discuss Middle Eastern politics" Saul Bellow.

Offline a partridge in seat_5c

  • blames English football
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,656
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #36 on: October 1, 2007, 01:06:37 pm »
I'm not sure you did justice to the best argument against rotation.

I wasn't trying to build an argument against rotation. Far from it. I'm trying to find reasons to support it when my gut instinct is against. In fact, here's that 'per se' expression again, I'm not against it 'per se' but I do think Rafa needs to be A LOT cleverer about who he rotates, and when, if he's not to fuck up our best chance of the Championship in 18 years. I'll make no bones about it, my gut feeling at the moment is that if we do fuck it up it'll most likely be his fault first and foremost, and I don't take any pleasure at all in writing that.

The best argument for not rotating is that a winning team with familiar faces builds a corps d'espirit. Something inexplicable happens to teams like this. They seem to become telepathic.

I tend to agree with the thrust of this, that players become more instinctive in their movement and in their ability to read others' movement, with a smaller core of players, but it's quite an intangible subject and I was trying to look for tangible reasons to support rotation, not more intangible reasons for me to moan about it.

If you wanted another competitor for your intangible argument against, then the theory that 'Rafa banging on about the players being tired will actually make them feel tired' holds a lot of water IMO

the thing that surely creates more energy than anything from February on is a team that can see the Title on the horizon.

absolutely categorically agree with that. Mind over matter. If man can walk up Mount Everest he can sure as hell play 2 games of bloody football a week.

Offline PaulF

  • https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/paulfelce
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,656
  • Nothing feels as good as fat tastes.
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #37 on: October 1, 2007, 01:28:53 pm »

Mind over matter. If man can walk up Mount Everest he can sure as hell play 2 games of bloody football a week.

But the first man to walk up Everest was part of a squad of sherpa's and was heavily rotated  ;D
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

Offline Yorkykopite

  • Misses Danny Boy with a passion. Phil's Official Biographer, dontcherknow...it's all true. Honestly.
  • RAWK Writer
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 34,220
  • The first five yards........
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #38 on: October 2, 2007, 01:59:50 pm »
Mind over matter.

Absolutely right. Trouble is enthusiasm, aching for the next game to arrive etc, is hard to measure. And therefore easier to devalue.

I don't want to capsize your thread Partridge, but I think we'll see a less rotated team as the season goes on. Eventually I expect to see Alonso and Mascherano taking the field together (with Gerrard you know where). For me, these next 3 or 4 weeks are going to be among the trickiest for us. Losing Alonso and Agger at the same time is an enormous blow. If we can continue to absorb it by playing shite and picking up points I'll be ecstatic.
"If you want the world to love you don't discuss Middle Eastern politics" Saul Bellow.

Offline a partridge in seat_5c

  • blames English football
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,656
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The book of rotation - inspired scripture or apocrypha ?
« Reply #39 on: October 3, 2007, 12:48:40 pm »
I think we'll see a less rotated team as the season goes on.

probably agree with you on that. I was always under the distinct impression that Rafa played players like Warnock, Fowler et al as much as he could before Christmas and then almost not at all after it, bringing in the big guns in the second half of the season. Understandable in terms of Europe but not domestically as in the league it was all 3 months too late. Maybe this year we'll 'get away with it'...