Topic: Local Elections May 4th 2017

[BoRed]

The shit performance of Labour and the Lib Dems says to me that the Left and Left of Centre vote has shrunk and the country has moved to the Right.

Not so sure about that, if you're including the Lib Dems in the left of centre, the vote has not shrunk.



This is only England, but it suggests Labour voters have moved to the Lib Dems and the Greens, while UKIP voters massively flocked to the Tories, which you could just about describe as a swing to the left . Unfortunately, under FPTP, this swing to the left in terms of votes (or, no swing at all, if you prefer) resulted in a huge swing to the right in terms of seats. The same will undoubtedly happen in the general election, too.

[Banquo's Ghost]

No one understands but Everton.

Corbyn proves himself as the leader who doesn't need to win elections to be a winner but he is a winner.

[filopastry]

Fairly predictable from McDonnell. The usual 'not as bad as predicted' line that will no doubt be reeled out after the General Election as well:

 1h ago 08:08
McDonnell says there were 'some disappointments' for Labour, but not the wipeout predicted

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, told Sky News that there had been “some disappointments” for Labour but that the results were not as bad as some were predicting. He said:

•    Well, it’s mixed results definitely. It’s been a tough night. There have been some disappointments. There hasn’t been a wipeout in some areas that some of the polls were predicting.

•    If you look in Doncaster, we won the mayoral on the first ballot, which was very good. In West of England, where people never gave us much of a hope, we came within 5,000 votes of winning that. That was a good result.

•    And in Wales, where again there were predictions of a wipeout, and where Theresa May went down to campaign in Newport, we held on to Newport. Where we’ve lost in Wales is where we picked up seats from the independents in both Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent. They’ve reverted to independents.

But he said support for Labour could pick up when its manifesto was published.

•    The manifestoes from all the parties will be published in the next couple of weeks and I think you will see the support for our policies is incredibly strong and we will translate that into support for the party.

And he predicted that voters would warm to Jeremy Corbyn as they saw more of him in the general election campaign.

•    And as Jeremy gets more airtime, I think people are beginning to see the real Jeremy Corbyn’s character emerge and be in support ...

•    Now we are in the general election campaign, and the media are forced to give some balance, the televised broadcast media, I think what you are seeing is that we are picking up support, and as Jeremy gets more media time, people are seeing the real character of the man, this decent, honest, strong leader, in terms of principles and how to go forward.


Deluded...

Exactly right you can see similar lines being used after the election to defend the leadership.

One of the talking points they are going for today will no doubt be particularly important, Labour's vote hasn't really gone down much since 2015 its just that UKIP voters have all gone to the Tories, so even though Labour are probably going to be looking at a massive defeat in June, the leadership somehow isn't culpable. Nonsense of course but it might be enough to convince those who are willing to look for any excuse.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Thing is it's still gone down, which it really shouldn't considering all things.

[classycarra]

The local election is so hard to judge what will happen in the general election by.

With a low turn out and the total collapse of the Ukip vote makes it even harder.

Seats in local elections can change on just a few votes.

But it makes the general election a lot more exciting.

Just need the manifestos released now and get on with it.

Nothing remotely exciting about Labour's upcoming decimation, I find it a bit odd you place so much weight for your personal politics on your own enjoyment. Can't say I relate to that, but each to their own.

As you mention, turnout is low. Doesn't it concern you then that Corbyn's strategy (lol) is to get the hardcore traditional Labour voters out and hope non-voters vote Labour? It's an awful strategy to start with, which most of us already knew, but after last night it's clear that even in votes when only the most politically active vote, Labour's taken a beating?

Manifesto won't be out for weeks. The Leadership entire inability to lead, to write policy and to competently prepare has ensured you can't get on with it until a week or so before the election. Even then, the costing details will probably be treated with the same contempt as Dianne Abbot's announcement last week, so don't go expecting a manifesto saviour.

[classycarra]

Exactly right you can see similar lines being used after the election to defend the leadership.

One of the talking points they are going for today will no doubt be particularly important, Labour's vote hasn't really gone down much since 2015 its just that UKIP voters have all gone to the Tories, so even though Labour are probably going to be looking at a massive defeat in June, the leadership somehow isn't culpable. Nonsense of course but it might be enough to convince those who are willing to look for any excuse.

Exactly.

As with the disastrous polling in Copeland and Stoke, the leadership have decreed to all those who follow submissively with no critical thought, that it's all because UKIP have made it harder, but it is a major victory that UKIP, a party with 0 seats, didn't beat them at least!

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/860391216608890880

You just have to laugh

[Elmo!]

Talk of huge gains for the Tories in Scotland.... 

[Gerry Attrick]

Talk of huge gains for the Tories in Scotland.... 

Expect them to gain in the GE too.

[HarryLabrador]

It is so sad, for the first time during an election, I am not watching or listening to any political crap (apart from RAWK). Classic FM and BBC Radio 3 are my solace at the moment following the depressing state of Labour. Just hoping the French and Macron obliterate that witch on Sunday. Vive La France!

[It's Jimmy Corkhill]

The local election is so hard to judge what will happen in the general election by.

With a low turn out and the total collapse of the Ukip vote makes it even harder.

Seats in local elections can change on just a few votes.

But it makes the general election a lot more exciting.

Just need the manifestos released now and get on with it.

Exciting? Are you fucking messing? You'll be in here with the same garbage after the general election.

[Rhi]

My local council is one of the shittest ones about. I think it was at one point considered the most corrupt council in the UK. Welsh Government had to run it for a while because they couldn't trust the Cllrs.

Still can't, to be honest. They're all mason-backed. The only party that bothered to put up a candidate in my ward was Plaid. So I voted for him and for the only candidate I got a leaflet from. It was an all-male ballot. Depressing.

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

Exciting? Are you fucking messing? You'll be in here with the same garbage after the general election.

He must be so comfortable in his life to be able to get excited about the Tories getting elected. Must not know anyone who might actually suffer under a Conservative government.

[Elmo!]

Expect them to gain in the GE too.

A lot of it is anti-SNP tactical voting.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Labour lost control in Glasgow now, trada must be so excited with the drama

[zero zero]

He must be so comfortable in his life to be able to get excited about the Tories getting elected. Must not know anyone who might actually suffer under a Conservative government.

I suspect it comes from having "the most vulnerable members of society" as an abstract concept, instead of - somebody I got ready for school this morning.

[Elmo!]

Labour lost control in Glasgow now, trada must be so excited with the drama

Not seen any official results anywhere but frankly I'd be amazed if they were still the biggest party. That would actually be a good result for them given expectations.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Not seen any official results anywhere but frankly I'd be amazed if they were still the biggest party. That would actually be a good result for them given expectations.

oh don't go down that road, turning all cat smith after Copeland there

[killer-heels]

Disagree with just about all of that. The shit performance of Labour and the Lib Dems says to me that the Left and Left of Centre vote has shrunk and the country has moved to the Right.

Of course it hasn't. The country has not shifted very much to the right, if at all. The electorate is still where it has always been, which is slap, bang in the centre.

The votes are there, but a combination of a shit opposition (Labour), a voter block being spread amongst several parties (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Greens and even Tories) and a unique situation (Brexit) has meant the Tories have hoovered up.

A good Labour party can win this election.

Also BBC just raised that point. More people have actually gone to the left/left of centre.

[Elmo!]

oh don't go down that road, turning all cat smith after Copeland there

I'm not saying it's not a terrible performance. I just mean that given where they were in the polls, most people expect the SNP to be the biggest party and possibly take overall control.

[JackWard33]

John Curtice has projected a 7% swing from Tory to Labour

Says "these results project in line with the expectations of the opinion polls"

[classycarra]

A lot of it is anti-SNP tactical voting.

Think there's any truth in the snp, like ukip down here, being a gateway drug for former labour areas to turn Tory?

[killer-heels]

Fucking hell, Diane Abbott is on the elections special BBC currently. Why did I not know this?

Definitely iPlayer-ing this later and watching the full coverage.

[Elmo!]

Think there's any truth in the snp, like ukip down here, being a gateway drug for former labour areas to turn Tory?

No, but what has happened I think is that as the SNP has moved left, their old heartlands like Aberdeenshire, which are more conservative have moved to the Tories. So there has been movement from Labour > SNP > Tories but it's not the same voters.

The other issue is that many pro-Brexit SNP voters have moved to the Tories, preferring being in the UK but out the EU to being independent but in the EU.

[Elmo!]

This is the leaflet that the Tories have been sending out everywhere in Scotland for the local elections (before the GE was even announced). They have made it ALL about independence - no mention of local policy at all.

[classycarra]

This is the leaflet that the Tories have been sending out everywhere in Scotland for the local elections (before the GE was even announced). They have made it ALL about independence - no mention of local policy at all.

Why would they, if they can save time and money doing a catch all leaflet beforehand that is likely to prove popular among a large portion of scots scattered around the country?

The SNP, through denigrating and cannibalising Scottish Labour support (and then compounded by a shite leader being elected labour leader twice), has ensured that those who don't want independence (plus those who just don't want another referendum) only have one other party to vote for (instead of splitting between labour and Tory). Always seemed inevitable, given and focus their ire and attacks at labour more than the tories. Expect this is the start of some unraveling for the SNP, provided corbyn is fucked off so Labour can progress again. Definitely think they've peaked

[killer-heels]

The analyst on the Beeb has said that if you look at the vote share, actually more have gone from right to left. The problem is that vote is split between Labour and Lib Dems, whilst the right has consolidated to the Tories.

Its a clear illustration that the left and the left of centre has not died.

[Elmo!]

Why would they, if they can save time and money doing a catch all leaflet beforehand that is likely to prove popular among a large portion of scots scattered around the country?

The SNP, through denigrating and cannibalising Scottish Labour support (and then compounded by a shite leader being elected labour leader twice), has ensured that those who don't want independence (plus those who just don't want another referendum) only have one other party to vote for (instead of splitting between labour and Tory). Always seemed inevitable, given and focus their ire and attacks at labour more than the tories. Expect this is the start of some unraveling for the SNP, provided corbyn is fucked off so Labour can progress again. Definitely think they've peaked

I was just making the point that the Tories have not campaigned on local policies for local elections. None of the councillors elected will be able to do bugger all about whether there is another indyref. Tactically of course it's paid off, but as is to be expected from Tories, it's irresponsible. They did the same in the Scottish elections last year by making it a personality contest, avoiding all talk of policy and pushing Ruth Davidson because she is for some reason popular.

Labour's problems in Scotland are far deeper than Corbyn. My experience from living in Scotland is that former Labour voters who have moved to the SNP generally think Corbyn is useless but their disgust is far more aimed at Scottish Labour than Corbyn.

The SNP may have peaked - I suspect you are right - but it will be a long time before Labour recover, Corbyn or no Corbyn.

[Danny Boys Dad]

The analyst on the Beeb has said that if you look at the vote share, actually more have gone from right to left. The problem is that vote is split between Labour and Lib Dems, whilst the right has consolidated to the Tories.

Its a clear illustration that the left and the left of centre has not died.

Just seen some figures from the BBC which shows Labour on -2% with the Lib Dems and Greens gaining a little bit but the UKIP collapse seems to have gone straight to the Tories.

[classycarra]

I was just making the point that the Tories have not campaigned on local policies for local elections. None of the councillors elected will be able to do bugger all about whether there is another indyref. Tactically of course it's paid off, but as is to be expected from Tories, it's irresponsible. They did the same in the Scottish elections last year by making it a personality contest, avoiding all talk of policy and pushing Ruth Davidson because she is for some reason popular.

Labour's problems in Scotland are far deeper than Corbyn. My experience from living in Scotland is that former Labour voters who have moved to the SNP generally think Corbyn is useless but their disgust is far more aimed at Scottish Labour than Corbyn.

The SNP may have peaked - I suspect you are right - but it will be a long time before Labour recover, Corbyn or no Corbyn.

Totally agree their problems precede corbyn. Though he's exacerbated them exponentially with his brexit duplicity and lies.

The problems for Scottish labour were that the SNP attacked them by unfairly equating them with the tories (which was rich, given salmonds' enjoyment of thatcher's economics). By smearing labour, they managed to decimate their party, and then corbyn came in to really drive that across the line.

This destruction of labour's credibility has left only one party for those in Scottish electorate against another referendum or independence to vote for, hence why a Tory has won a seat on a Glasgow council.

[JackWard33]

Just seen some figures from the BBC which shows Labour on -2% with the Lib Dems and Greens gaining a little bit but the UKIP collapse seems to have gone straight to the Tories.

Yes and the problem is that not all of them used to be Tories before they were UKIP

[Cliff Bastin]

Sturgeon dad lost his seat. 

[Danny Boys Dad]

Yes and the problem is that not all of them used to be Tories before they were UKIP

Wouldn't really want them back to be honest 

[Wabaloolah]

Sturgeon dad lost his seat. 

Excellent!

[Wabaloolah]

Fairly predictable from McDonnell. The usual 'not as bad as predicted' line that will no doubt be reeled out after the General Election as well:

 1h ago 08:08
McDonnell says there were 'some disappointments' for Labour, but not the wipeout predicted

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, told Sky News that there had been “some disappointments” for Labour but that the results were not as bad as some were predicting. He said:

•    Well, it’s mixed results definitely. It’s been a tough night. There have been some disappointments. There hasn’t been a wipeout in some areas that some of the polls were predicting.

•    If you look in Doncaster, we won the mayoral on the first ballot, which was very good. In West of England, where people never gave us much of a hope, we came within 5,000 votes of winning that. That was a good result.

•    And in Wales, where again there were predictions of a wipeout, and where Theresa May went down to campaign in Newport, we held on to Newport. Where we’ve lost in Wales is where we picked up seats from the independents in both Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent. They’ve reverted to independents.

But he said support for Labour could pick up when its manifesto was published.

•    The manifestoes from all the parties will be published in the next couple of weeks and I think you will see the support for our policies is incredibly strong and we will translate that into support for the party.

And he predicted that voters would warm to Jeremy Corbyn as they saw more of him in the general election campaign.

•    And as Jeremy gets more airtime, I think people are beginning to see the real Jeremy Corbyn’s character emerge and be in support ...

•    Now we are in the general election campaign, and the media are forced to give some balance, the televised broadcast media, I think what you are seeing is that we are picking up support, and as Jeremy gets more media time, people are seeing the real character of the man, this decent, honest, strong leader, in terms of principles and how to go forward.


Deluded...

Corbyn is an irrelevance in Wales, Labour did better here because the Welsh Leader is Carwyn Jones not because of Corbyn.  No surprise really to see Corbyn pretty much non-existent in Wales.  He wasn't wanted or needed.  My ward has returned the same 3 Labour councillors it did last time and currently have gained two from Independents and one from Plaid

[Wabaloolah]

Wouldn't really want them back to be honest 

If you don't want them back then the Tories will comfortably win again and again and again

[Elmo!]

Sturgeon dad lost his seat. 

He didn't lose his seat yesterday, he tried to win it in a by-election last year and was trying to win it again.

[classycarra]

Wouldn't really want them back to be honest 

you'd fit in well with corbyn! He also doesn't want people to vote labour like you!

[Wabaloolah]

If these results are a sign of things to come next month Labour will do well to win 150 seats.

150 was my prediction at the start of the campaign down from 200 when Corbyn was elected leader.  I think I may have been a tad optimistic though.....

[Cliff Bastin]

He didn't lose his seat yesterday, he tried to win it in a by-election last year and was trying to win it again.

Im happy either way.