Topic: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread

[El Campeador]

So we've been talking about it in PMs, and there are a few threads on the general state of the economy, and oil/gas prices, that have started bleeding into trading and investment.

It seems we have a few hardcore traders and financially-literate posters about. We also have either (depending on your philosophy) a once in a decade buying opportunity, or a once in a lifetime short opportunity.

So why not have a thread dedicated to trading, amateur and/or professional? Obviously, noone's responsible for your own shitty decisions except yourself.

Let's try and keep this thread on topic. I suggest we have a few ground rules - add as you see fit -

- Put your money where your mouth is. Post only open positions, or positions you're about to open.

- Post your reasons for the trade, a chart, a timeframe, opening date, opening price, ticker symbol, and a target.

- Close all open positions publicly.

- Have fun!

I'll start with the only open position I have right now. It's the one I posted on the oil/gas prices thread.

Company: Frontier Oil
Stock Symbol: FTO
Position: Long January $20 Call, symbol +FTOAD
Price: $2.95
Position Opened: 9/16 ($3.3),  9/17 ($2.6)
Target: Undetermined, FTO to hit $25 by January 17 2009.

Reasons - Lots of babies thrown out with the bathwater, and I think some of the selling in energy has been overdone, probably because the sector was such a winner early in the year. Refining margins were very strong the last few years, but got squeezed hard when oil got too expensive. FTO (and refiners in general) has a low P/E ratio, is safe from hurricanes in hurricane season, stands to gain from "lower" oil prices and "higher" gasoline prices. Technically, it looks to have formed a base around $18, and has done a double bottom around $16. Volume on up days has been impressive lately, and the ratio of up days to down days has been good this month (2.5:1) in a very shitty month for stocks.

The trend looks like it's about to change, and the MACD is about to cross positive. Furthermore, I expect the Wednesday EIA inventory report to be bullish as the effects of Ike are factored in (closed refiners, drawdown in gasoline stocks, increased margins).

Chart -

[kopindian]

Good idea.I thought of suggestiing it when i saw many  posts in the doomsday thread.
I don't trade.Am following value investment methods influenced by the legendary book 'Intelligent investor'.Interestingly its now the bestseller in non-fiction category in india(an indiction of a bear run,i guess).
What do you  think would happen to dollar?Rs-dollar has gone from around 40 to 46-47.Am thinking of shorting it but am not used to currency futures.

[Dread Breath]

Think we had another thread going on this in the off-topic forum at one stage. I was a trader at one stage, but don't trade now on a day-to-day basis.

I still keep an eye on the markets - I probably could have made a fair bit of money going short the market when it topped as, like a lot of people, I saw the train coming a long time before it did as you can see if you've seen some of my posts on this topic on various threads. I just couldn't handle the stress of it - and it is a stressful past-time - at least the way I did it!

I still have a few long term 'irons in the fire' - my focus is principally the mining/O & G sector, especially junior start ups and microcaps with excellent acreage/proven resources - mostly these are on the Australian Exchange, but I'm not exclusively an Aussie Xchange person.

There are numerous uranium plays I like in Australia - a hatful of mineral sands plays, a hatful of oil and gas plays and a couple of precious metal plays I have on my watch list. There are also two mining service companies I like as well, and one iron ore stock I think is worth a look at. These are all long/medium term plays and not trading stocks and I'm looking for at least 20 x's the return over the long haul.

I'm happy to contribute to this thread when I find the time, but will not be giving stock tips for various reasons (one, I am not a registered financial advisor, two, I do not want to be accused of ramping, three, there are a slew of websites where you can get decent stock tips, four, I've given tips on RAWK before and regretted it later for the previous reasons, etc etc)

One tip I will give is that, in terms of investing and trading in general,  there are many more sharks in the water than what may appear - a lot of them are company executives. The best way to judge a particular stock is through technical analysis, because charts never lie - however, having said that, a lot of the stocks I'm into have a crap chart and an even worse stock price - but that is what happens when you buy into potential.

[MasterJ]

One tip I will give is that, in terms of investing and trading in general,  there are many more sharks in the water than what may appear - a lot of them are company executives. The best way to judge a particular stock is through technical analysis, because charts never lie - however, having said that, a lot of the stocks I'm into have a crap chart and an even worse stock price - but that is what happens when you buy into potential.

From my experience, you say that to an academic and they'd bite your head off! But what do they know!? Cynics are only ever clever because they're not out there walking the walk and risking their necks!

[BazC]

Dread Breath- I remember that thread 

El Campeador- was keeping my eye out for you to start one 

I'll be keeping an eye out on this thread and hoping a few of the traders on here join in- I'm getting a bursary from uni in the next few months and I'll play around with that I think.

Nice one!

[dannymc]

Funnily enough i have shares in Spurs since 8months, and look how shite they are doing 

[Gus 1855]

2007 Carruade de Chateau Lafite @ £595 a case en primeur, as solid an investment as you could want at the moment in the wine trade.

2006 Chateau Lafite @ £1800 per half case also very attractive.


Would expect to see a 30-50% increase in each of those inside 12 months.

[El Campeador]

Oooh nice shout Gus. I don't know much about wine or champagne as an investment - I'm going to keep an eye out on this call.

Course with my habits, I'd probably piss my investment away.

One question - how would one go about selling them?

[Gus 1855]

Oooh nice shout Gus. I don't know much about wine or champagne as an investment - I'm going to keep an eye out on this call.

Course with my habits, I'd probably piss my investment away.

One question - how would one go about selling them?

Right, crash course in investing in wine:

The earlier you buy the wine the better, and the greater return on your investment. It is rather like a futures market, so the wine is bought en primeur. This is a way that winemakers aided their cashflow while the wines were ageing in Barrel, they are sold in advance. So you buy a certificate to promise you a certain wine for delivery into the UK at a certain point in the future, normally 18-24 months.

It is very important to bear in mind, if you are serious about making the money, you will never actually see the wine. You can of course exchange for physical, but as soon as the wine is in a private cellar it's storage conditions can not be guaranteed, and so the price will drop.

At the point of purchase you pay for the liquid and production cost, but do not pay VAT or import Duty. Then you simply trade the certificate while the wine is in bonded storage. When you sell, you simply sell through a broker, people like Farrs, Fine & Rare, Bordeaux Index, Direct Wines etc.

It is crucial to select the correct wines though.

To give you some idea on the returns possible. I bought a case of 2005 Chateau Lafite 14 months ago for £1800, it is now being sold at £6500 through BBR or £5000 with FRW(with no authenticity guarantee). These sort of options only crop up every few years, but lesser gains are often available.

[El Campeador]

Thanks for that. Much more professional (of course!) than I expected. Obviously, you've got to know a lot about the wine. That's you. Welcome to the thread, Sir Wine Analyst

Diversification. It's what it's all about. What do we think about the luxury goods market in the current climate? I've always thought of it as being somewhat inelastic, am I correct in thinking that?

May make sense to park a few grand away in wine, since I'm certainly not itching to throw is at the financials.

[red4ever]

Just the type of thread I was looking for, although not sure if my post would suit it best. I'm interested in opinions on some investments I currently have as opposed to stating something I will invest. Can I ask away?

[El Campeador]

Just the type of thread I was looking for, although not sure if my post would suit it best. I'm interested in opinions on some investments I currently have as opposed to stating something I will invest. Can I ask away?

It's a free thread  ask away

[kesey]

Iam trying to find an honest and ethical company that belives in putting people before profit and health before wealth. The reason is I want to invest the money Ive been saving from my hard earned giro before I piss it all up against the wall.

Can anybody help me?

[red4ever]

It's a free thread  ask away

Cheers.

PS. Any investment books/websites recommended for a read? Just to get a bit more clued up on things to look out for/consider/research etc.

[El Campeador]

Well written. You're asking the right questions, and you want to learn, which is better than being angry, and/or looking for an easy tip out of the mess.

I cannot tell you what to do, for a multitude of reasons, including but not limited to my not being a qualified investment advisor, that I am not as familiar with the UK markets, that your age, risk aversion and income should determine your investment direction, etc.

I will tell you this much - you hit the perfect storm. Everything she told you is quite true: it is indeed about the long term, this is an aberration, and your investments will probably be ok over your lifetime. The market dumps every once in a while, and it's usually the young (who've just started contributing) and the old (who're about to retire) who get squeezed the most.

You should read up about your funds, and other funds, and try to diversify amongst them all depending on your age. Some fixed income investments are good to balance out the risky stock funds, but you shouldn't go overboard since your biggest gainers will be the stock funds; they're the ones that show the biggest growth over a long period of time.

Here's the kicker. You cannot just invest in good times when you have a long term horizon. You've got to dollar-cost-average. Buy equally at the dips, the middles, and the tops. Someone once showed me a study about what happens to those who miss the 5 best trading days of the year. The results were staggering.

I'd be happy to give you some reading material, but the stuff I read is a bit over the top, and would probably lead to more confusion than clarity. I'll dig around, but maybe someone else has some beginner material that they might recommend?

For now, I'd say do some reading, educate yourself, and don't panic.

Good luck

N.B. I took a look at those funds you listed, and having 25% in a properties fund may not have ever been a good idea. She may be clueless after all.

[Dread Breath]

Here's a couple of useful links for those interested in trading/investing:

Incredible charts trading diary (ongoing commentary on various markets, updated every couple of days)

Marketocracy Forums (one of the best trading/investing forums in the world with some of the best traders and investors going around)

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (the best trading book ever written - and it was published in 1923!)

Kitco (gold, precious metal and base metal prices updated in real time, also with links to historical data - also a stack of articles written by half-loony gold bugs)

I have a lot of other links, but most of them are for specialist areas to do with markets (for example, the ASX, or oil, etc).

[red4ever]

For now, I'd say do some reading, educate yourself, and don't panic.

A bit late for that after the bail out deal got rejected today!

Cheers for the links.

[El Campeador]

A bit late for that after the bail out deal got rejected today!

Cheers for the links.

Heh.

It's not like I could have told you to double down or exit. Panic is never a good thing. Whatever decision you make on any subject should be made with a clear head.

I'm wondering how old you are?

Because it may be time for some perspective.

[red4ever]

I was being a bit dramatic with my last statement, should have used a smiley to indicate that/tone it down. 

Been speaking to some people who know a lot more about this stuff than I do, it is providing perspective.

Does anyone know of sites that have fund monitoring? I notice Google Finance has it, but wondering if there's any others?

[PeterJM]

I'm looking to invest some money in Gold.I'm not sure of how to go about it and would be grateful of any advice anyone can give.

What wouldbe the best form to buy it in(Coins or small bullion bars).

[Dread Breath]

I'm looking to invest some money in Gold.I'm not sure of how to go about it and would be grateful of any advice anyone can give.

What wouldbe the best form to buy it in(Coins or small bullion bars).

I don't know where you are located in the world, but in Australia you can get physical bullion/gold bullion certificates (as in, get a certificate that is redeemable for cash that stands for a certain amount of gold) from the Perth Mint. I'm not sure about their exchange rate system, but the gold/silver is sold in terms of the price of gold in US $ terms. Check out this link.

I would avoid newly minted coins, but that's really up to you.

BTW, silver bullion ingots make great door stops.

My view on gold/silver is that there will be a massive spike in price at some stage, because the US $ is going to go down the toilet. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the prices of precious metals crashes first on the back of a world-wide recession.

[Dread Breath]

BTW there are numerous ways to invest in gold, not just in terms of buying into the physical bullion - for example buying into a gold/silver mining company. I'm sure there are many on here who can recommend gold/silver mining companies for you.

Good luck.

[Dread Breath]

Borrowed this from another forum, may be of interest here:

[fudge]

here's another easy one
www.bullionvault.com

[red4ever]

Because it may be time for some perspective.
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That's weird, I didn't see that image when I read your post at home. But at work it's shown me the image. I get your point. Just sucks that my first major investment coincides with a fall.

Btw, for those interested, I came across this site http://www.morningstar.co.uk which looks decent.

[BazC]

Gold Exchange Traded Funds? I think El Campeador's recent Oil prices thread was the investment in oil via ETFs tracking oil prices?

What are the general views of ETFs amongst you traders?

[Dread Breath]

Haven't used ETF's myself, and to be honest I would prefer to use ETN's if I were to get into that side of trading - I just find it easier to understand what I'm getting with an ETN - leveraged exposure to price movements in the raw commodity, in particular dgp double long and dzz double short, which are used by several traders on forums I post on. Having said that, my TA skills are really not up to scratch in terms of assessing short-term price movements of anything - fundamentally I am reasonably good at predicting price movements, but that obviously is a much longer time frame then that required to actively trade ETF's and ETN's on a day-to-day basis. In other words I do not trade ETF's/ETN's because I don't have the skill set to do so - sure you can invest in those type of vehicles for a longer time frame, but I prefer to target individual companies for longer time frames (meaning purchasing shares in the stock) for various reasons.

This link, published yesterday, should give some insight into ETF's and ETN's.

[John C]

Iam trying to find an honest and ethical company that belives in putting people before profit and health before wealth. The reason is I want to invest the money Ive been saving from my hard earned giro before I piss it all up against the wall.

Can anybody help me?

Did you get any sound advice Kesey? Probably not in this sad world of obscene minority held wealth.
 
I like this thread, its a great (even fresh to RAWK) idea, but there aren't many guaranteed places of ethical investment.

[Dread Breath]

Did you get any sound advice Kesey? Probably not in this sad world of obscene minority held wealth.
 
I like this thread, its a great (even fresh to RAWK) idea, but there aren't many guaranteed places of ethical investment.

There are numerous 'ethical' funds about the place that invest only in companies that they assess as having ethical standards - however most investors I know much prefer to invest in stocks they've investigated themselves, and won't put their money in stocks they judge to be doing anything immoral or underhand.

[Dread Breath]

Thought this would tickle the fancy of some of RAWK's UK based posters:

If you had purchased £1000 of Northern Rock shares one year ago it would now be worth £4.95.

With HBOS, earlier this week your £1000 would have been worth £16.50.

£1000 invested in XL Leisure would now be worth less than £5.

However, if you bought £1000 worth of Tennents Lager one year ago, drank it all, then took the empty cans to an aluminum re-cycling plant, you would get £21.40.

So based on the above statistics the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and re-cycle

[That Kennedy moment]

Maybe a little off-topic, but with the stock market hitting a new low again today, what's the sensible thing to do with my pension?

I basically have a company pension, and for every £100 I pay into it, my employer pays in around £60. Because I didn't start a pension until I was in my early thirties, I've been whacking a fair bit into it for the past five years. But when I got my last statement, four months ago, before these record falls, it had decreased in value from last year, despite me putting a fair bit into it over the past 12 months. God knows where it's going with these record falls.

My question is, to the experts on here: is it  worth me scaling back my monthly pension contribs, and using that to pay more off my mortgage? Or how valid is the argument that this is exactly the time to be paying a lot into your pension, because you can buy a lot of units now that will make better returns later?

[Dread Breath]

Maybe a little off-topic, but with the stock market hitting a new low again today, what's the sensible thing to do with my pension?

I basically have a company pension, and for every £100 I pay into it, my employer pays in around £60. Because I didn't start a pension until I was in my early thirties, I've been whacking a fair bit into it for the past five years. But when I got my last statement, four months ago, before these record falls, it had decreased in value from last year, despite me putting a fair bit into it over the past 12 months. God knows where it's going with these record falls.

My question is, to the experts on here: is it  worth me scaling back my monthly pension contribs, and using that to pay more off my mortgage? Or how valid is the argument that this is exactly the time to be paying a lot into your pension, because you can buy a lot of units now that will make better returns later?

I'm not a financial advisor.

If it were me, I'd be getting rid of the debt first, but that's me.

[Fiend]

I'm not a financial advisor.

If it were me, I'd be getting rid of the debt first, but that's me.

There are major tax advantages to paying into a pension.
Definitely one for an accountant.

To be honest interest rates are coming down, probably even tomorrow.

Having said that you probably wont see much of that relief.

Shop around and then pay the difference into the principle.

Generally best to invest in a pension if you are at the high rate of tax.

[That Kennedy moment]

Sorry mate, what do you mean by shop around and pay the difference into the principle?

[Fiend]

Dunno mate.
[waiting for an accountant to say I'm right]

Thats the problem with these open threads. Anyone can hop in

The way things are going now I'd buy gold and I used to think those guys were weirdos. The whole valuation system is collapsing before our eyes

[ttnbd]

there's tax benefits to putting into a pension, however when it's taken out as an annuity you get taxed.

Alot, if not all, pension funds are inextricably linked to the stock markets and something tells me the markets haven't bottomed out yet.

[El Campeador]

something tells me the markets haven't bottomed out yet.

Agree with you there, but it may be time to start thinking about what the 5 and 10 year winners will be to come out of this mess.

[Sinos]

A little game for anyone who doesn't want to risk any cash

http://chartgame.com/play.cgi?o9ao7d-2,194,2621

Would any of you be interested in some sort of league?

[ttnbd]

www.bullbearings.co.uk is better.  Let's you do other types of deals

[chap114]

Don't mind me.  Just found this thread and book marking it.
I have always been careful with my money and saved a bit pver the years.  However for the last 12-6 months I have been thinking about investing it in something other than an ISA.  However my lack of knowledge in the subject has led me to stay away.

I can't help feeling that there has to be some big opportunites to come out of all this downturn.  I just need to be pointed in the right direction