Topic: Doesn't matter who you vote for as long as it's for the right reasons!

[filopastry]

I think it's too cute a line to work with Johnson in Downing Street. In principle, holding a line on 'don't raise taxes right now' is good. It's a clear marker to set up a fight over returning to austerity. But the gamble is that's the natural Tory instinct rather than a political project. And Johnson's political project is purely to have all the power while disclaiming any responsibility rather than to shrink the state, depress wages, and undo the previous government's welfare reforms.

Ultimately though they still need to make a choice this year, next year or the year after, to shrink the state, raise taxes or borrow at high levels (or a combination of all 3), all of those options open up some attack lines for Labour (and potentially policy options for Labour as well).

[filopastry]

All sensible in terms of recovery, but for me the Tories have got this the right way round. Put in a policy that is unpopular with their base now, in order to reverse it closer to an election. They can then take the line that they are going to help families by reducing their tax but also be prudent with their money and look after it.

Labour would be in a position that they would be arguing the fact to increase taxes closer to an election, which will always harm you. The austerity line from the Tories will be more palatable to swallow.

Personally I think we should be raising income tax as well.

I'm not sure anyone will have much scope to be reducing taxes in a significant way, the public finances are in pretty awful shape and that isn't just COVID, Brexit won't help and demographics will continue gradually working against them as well. I agree politically it absolutely makes sense for the Tories to tighten fiscal policy now, they would want to start taking that hit as far away from the next election as possible, the economic case is weak though

[Zeb]

Ultimately though they still need to make a choice this year, next year or the year after, to shrink the state, raise taxes or borrow at high levels (or a combination of all 3), all of those options open up some attack lines for Labour (and potentially policy options for Labour as well).

Whether Brexit after effects are going to prove to be the fly in the ointment, who knows? But long term debt at close to zero interest financed by economic growth is the option I think they'll go for. With ominous occasional rumblings from number 11, for form's sake. Hammond's out today preaching its virtues. Sod's degree in PPE was nowhere to be seen in 2010 heh. I'd be angrier with Starmer if he attacked on public debt with promises to reduce it faster than I was with Labour for ducking out of a difficult argument post-2008.

[killer-heels]

I'm not sure anyone will have much scope to be reducing taxes in a significant way, the public finances are in pretty awful shape and that isn't just COVID, Brexit won't help and demographics will continue gradually working against them as well. I agree politically it absolutely makes sense for the Tories to tighten fiscal policy now, they would want to start taking that hit as far away from the next election as possible, the economic case is weak though

They won't, but a reduction is still a reduction. Throw in a promise of further cuts and austerity for their own constituency and push the small reduction to help families for those not in their natural constituency and then you have the basis for a strong message.

Labour however would be snookered. Tax rises which would be unpopular and promises to invest, which will raise the idea of borrowing and make the people think Labour are doing 2010 all over again.

[Red-Soldier]

The country needs investment.  Government finances don't need to be run like a household.  The books don't need to be balanced.

Increase certain taxes, borrow and invest/spend.

[killer-heels]

The country needs investment.  Government finances don't need to be run like a household.  The books don't need to be balanced.

Increase certain taxes, borrow and invest/spend.

Technically that's what the tories are trying to sell.

Ultimately though, it doesn't matter. Labour are not winning the next election, target should be to try to get the majority down by around 2/3rds.

[filopastry]

Whether Brexit after effects are going to prove to be the fly in the ointment, who knows? But long term debt at close to zero interest financed by economic growth is the option I think they'll go for. With ominous occasional rumblings from number 11, for form's sake. Hammond's out today preaching its virtues. Sod's degree in PPE was nowhere to be seen in 2010 heh. I'd be angrier with Starmer if he attacked on public debt with promises to reduce it faster than I was with Labour for ducking out of a difficult argument post-2008.

Its managable as long as rates stay near zero, the one thing the UK (and most of the developed world) can't afford is returning inflation, forcing rates higher, a sustainable situation would become challenging pretty quickly, and certainly we are seeing hints of life in some bond yields recently although far too early to get too worried there.

Even if that is the path, it massively reduces the old Tory attack line of Labour being reckless with the nation's finances, which it feels has been weighing on us since 2010

[Sangria]

They won't, but a reduction is still a reduction. Throw in a promise of further cuts and austerity for their own constituency and push the small reduction to help families for those not in their natural constituency and then you have the basis for a strong message.

Labour however would be snookered. Tax rises which would be unpopular and promises to invest, which will raise the idea of borrowing and make the people think Labour are doing 2010 all over again.

Localise the economy.

[Snail]

Just in case anyone hasn't read the below yet. What horrible, spiteful nation of nasty little curtain-twitchers we live in.

Nearly half of people believe those who lost their job during the pandemic were likely to have been underperforming, a survey has found.

In findings that will raise fears over inequalities in Britain, a study of attitudes by researchers at Kings College London showed a significant minority thought a widening post-Covid income gap between white people and BAME groups would not be a problem.

“This analysis throws up the complexity of people’s view about inequalities,” said Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which will use the research for its five-year review of inequalities. “The British public is clearly concerned about some inequalities, but also sets great store by individual responsibility.”

People care more about differences between geographical areas than races, genders and generations, found researchers in the study entitled Unequal Britain.

The findings may suggest widespread support for the “levelling up” agenda espoused by the government as the country attempts to rebound after Covid, the authors said. But it will also raise questions about the popularity of anti-inequality policies focusing on ethnic minorities and women.

Unemployment rose to 1.74 million people this week, its highest level in five years and business shutdowns are disproportionately affecting women and ethnic minorities.

In one of the starkest findings, one in eight Britons (13%) said they think black people are more likely to be unemployed and have lower incomes because they “lack motivation or willpower”.

This attitude was held by more than one in five of the Conservative voters polled, compared with less than one in 20 Labour supporters. Overall, 47% said those inequalities are because of discrimination but strikingly racist views remain, with 4% of respondents saying inequality was because most black people have “less in-born ability to learn”. The researchers discovered this by asking questions rarely posed in the UK, but often included in US social surveys.

The authors said the overall findings showed “meritocratic and individualistic tendencies” are likely to temper calls for action on inequality.

“There is a strong belief in meritocracy in Britain – that hard work and ambition remain key drivers of success, and this colours views, even during a pandemic,” the report said. “Despite the exceptional circumstances [of Covid], Britons are more likely to think that job losses caused by the crisis are the result of personal failure than chance.”

The view that individual performance was important in determining whether workers were made unemployed during the Covid crisis was held by 47% of people. Only 31% put it down to luck. Study author Bobby Duffy, professor of social policy at KCL, said this was surprising. By 57% to 39%, Conservative voters are much more likely than Labour voters to attribute these job losses to poor performance at work.

Of the more than 2,000 people polled, the largest number thought gulfs between geographical areas of more and less deprivation were the most serious form of inequality faced by the nation, followed by income and wealth. This view was held by Labour and Conservative supporters alike – one of the only issues in the study that united the political spectrum.

Duffy said this rare moment of unity in attitudes toward inequalities “points to [support for] policies that are not just about moving the odd government department [out of London] or listening more to the north – it is the sense of supporting local community initiatives. It is something that has been underemphasised since the late 2000s.”

Less than half of people polled put racial differences in their top three or four most serious types of inequalities and less than a third included gender inequality.

Amid evidence of adverse labour market consequences for women in Britain resulting from the crisis, the study found that a third of people would not consider it a problem if inequality between genders got worse because of the crisis.

“These findings underline all too clearly the increased importance of place in debates about politics in general and inequality in particular,” said Prof Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe, which collaborated in the study. “The government should view this emergent consensus as providing a window of opportunity to act on the ambitious promises it has made to ‘level up’ the country.”

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2021/feb/25/job-losses-in-pandemic-due-to-performance-issues-say-nearly-half-of-britons

[Zeb]

Its managable as long as rates stay near zero, the one thing the UK (and most of the developed world) can't afford is returning inflation, forcing rates higher, a sustainable situation would become challenging pretty quickly, and certainly we are seeing hints of life in some bond yields recently although far too early to get too worried there.

Even if that is the path, it massively reduces the old Tory attack line of Labour being reckless with the nation's finances, which it feels has been weighing on us since 2010

Yeah, possibly, but it also makes it harder in pitching a case which works with those whose votes Starmer needs. Although there's tensions there in the Tory coalition which will emerge at some point, whether from within Parliament or in an election.

edit: oh, forgot to say, for what it's worth your question about voter preferences changing with age had me thinking a bit. This is the explanation which seems to be most common to voting trends over the past c.50 years rather than it being people aging into being a Tory, if that makes sense. It starts page 50ish of the download (pdf). https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/electoral-shocks-now-free-to-download/ There's more research which also suggests parties on the authoritarian/right get to play on easy mode cos left wing 'authoritarian' voters will be more likely to match to authoritarian values/policies over liberal/left wing. Suggestion was this holds true across Europe and helps explain some of the troubles traditional social democrats have had. (Think that was by Rob Ford.)

[Red-Soldier]

Just in case anyone hasn't read the below yet. What horrible, spiteful nation of nasty little curtain-twitchers we live in.

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2021/feb/25/job-losses-in-pandemic-due-to-performance-issues-say-nearly-half-of-britons

Yeah I read that this morning.

A nation of ignorant, uncaring fuckwitts!

It's the Thatcherite/Tory mentality.

[So… Howard Philips]

Yeah I read that this morning.

A nation of ignorant, uncaring fuckwitts!

It's the Thatcherite/Tory mentality.

Hardly the whole nation though - the article gave a figure of 13% and that figure would have been largely made up by the Tory respondents, so no surprise there.

[Red-Soldier]

Hardly the whole nation though - the article gave a figure of 13% and that figure would have been largely made up by the Tory respondents, so no surprise there.

In one of the starkest findings, one in eight Britons (13%) said they think black people are more likely to be unemployed and have lower incomes because they “lack motivation or willpower”.

The view that individual performance was important in determining whether workers were made unemployed during the Covid crisis was held by 47% of people. Only 31% put it down to luck. Study author Bobby Duffy, professor of social policy at KCL, said this was surprising. By 57% to 39%, Conservative voters are much more likely than Labour voters to attribute these job losses to poor performance at work.

Amid evidence of adverse labour market consequences for women in Britain resulting from the crisis, the study found that a third of people would not consider it a problem if inequality between genders got worse because of the crisis.

[filopastry]

Yeah, possibly, but it also makes it harder in pitching a case which works with those whose votes Starmer needs. Although there's tensions there in the Tory coalition which will emerge at some point, whether from within Parliament or in an election.

edit: oh, forgot to say, for what it's worth your question about voter preferences changing with age had me thinking a bit. This is the explanation which seems to be most common to voting trends over the past c.50 years rather than it being people aging into being a Tory, if that makes sense. It starts page 50ish of the download (pdf). https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/electoral-shocks-now-free-to-download/ There's more research which also suggests parties on the authoritarian/right get to play on easy mode cos left wing 'authoritarian' voters will be more likely to match to authoritarian values/policies over liberal/left wing. Suggestion was this holds true across Europe and helps explain some of the troubles traditional social democrats have had. (Think that was by Rob Ford.)

Thanks for that Zeb, will have a look!

[killer-heels]

Hardly the whole nation though - the article gave a figure of 13% and that figure would have been largely made up by the Tory respondents, so no surprise there.

Except a 1/3rd thinking that inequality between genders is fine.

[killer-heels]

Lisa ‘Towns like mine’ Nandy flapping at the tax position on Daily Politics. Boris and Sunak have nailed them on this.

[Indomitable_Carp]

In one of the starkest findings, one in eight Britons (13%) said they think black people are more likely to be unemployed and have lower incomes because they “lack motivation or willpower”.

The view that individual performance was important in determining whether workers were made unemployed during the Covid crisis was held by 47% of people. Only 31% put it down to luck. Study author Bobby Duffy, professor of social policy at KCL, said this was surprising. By 57% to 39%, Conservative voters are much more likely than Labour voters to attribute these job losses to poor performance at work.

Amid evidence of adverse labour market consequences for women in Britain resulting from the crisis, the study found that a third of people would not consider it a problem if inequality between genders got worse because of the crisis.

Not only that, but 4% saying black people have “less in-born ability to learn”. And that is just people self-reporting. I would think most would be too embarrassed or ashamed to admit to that in this day and age - you´ve got to wander how many others hold that opinion over the self-reported 4%

[filopastry]

Not only that, but 4% saying black people have “less in-born ability to learn”. And that is just people self-reporting. I would think most would be too embarrassed or ashamed to admit to that in this day and age - you´ve got to wander how many others hold that opinion over the self-reported 4%

I was thinking that myself on reading that study, horrible reading all round

[Red Viper]

Just in case anyone hasn't read the below yet. What horrible, spiteful nation of nasty little curtain-twitchers we live in.

Nothing surprises me anymore with this country full of nasty, boot-licking racists.

[killer-heels]

Localise the economy.

Raise taxes especially on those large companies. Unfortunately it seems like Labour want to abandon that and its striking that the former Tory advisor on DP said her position aligns to Labour because its a more Tory approach.

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

Just in case anyone hasn't read the below yet. What horrible, spiteful nation of nasty little curtain-twitchers we live in.

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2021/feb/25/job-losses-in-pandemic-due-to-performance-issues-say-nearly-half-of-britons

Proper sickening this. Ugly results from an ugly nation.

[TepidT2O]

My god....

This exams thing is a ducking fisaco...

A total joke...

May actually be worse than last year.

[TSC]

Just in case anyone hasn't read the below yet. What horrible, spiteful nation of nasty little curtain-twitchers we live in.

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2021/feb/25/job-losses-in-pandemic-due-to-performance-issues-say-nearly-half-of-britons

Zip cognisance of the fact the pandemic has seen companies go to the wall notwithstanding the ‘Brexit’ aspect. 

[thaddeus]

My god....

This exams thing is a ducking fisaco...

A total joke...

May actually be worse than last year.

I'm not saying I disagree but why?  Is it just the potential for rampant grade inflation or is there more to it?

[thaddeus]

In one of the starkest findings, one in eight Britons (13%) said they think black people are more likely to be unemployed and have lower incomes because they “lack motivation or willpower”.

The view that individual performance was important in determining whether workers were made unemployed during the Covid crisis was held by 47% of people. Only 31% put it down to luck. Study author Bobby Duffy, professor of social policy at KCL, said this was surprising. By 57% to 39%, Conservative voters are much more likely than Labour voters to attribute these job losses to poor performance at work.

Amid evidence of adverse labour market consequences for women in Britain resulting from the crisis, the study found that a third of people would not consider it a problem if inequality between genders got worse because of the crisis.

One of the things commentators observed early on was that this pandemic was going to see a lot of people lose jobs that had worn the badge of "I've worked for the last 30 years not like those lazy scroungers" and drop them into a job market where they would find it very tough.  I think cognitive dissonance will be doing some heavy lifting when people with views that unemployed “lack motivation or willpower” find themselves unemployed for a length of time.

[12C]

I'm not saying I disagree but why?  Is it just the potential for rampant grade inflation or is there more to it?

Rampant grade inflation?
Really?
What a disrespectful comment to all the teachers out there.

[thaddeus]

Rampant grade inflation?
Really?
What a disrespectful comment to all the teachers out there.

You may have misread it differently to how it was intended but no disrespect was meant.  It was well documented last year that most teachers will look for the positives in their students (and rightly so) and so those borderline grade decisions will, in most cases, be rounded up rather than down.  If that's repeated across the board then there will indeed be rampant grade inflation compared to a normal exam year where grade boundaries are adjusted to retain a comparable set of results to previous years.

I understand from my sister and brother-in-law - both teachers in a secondary school - that their headteacher is very much driven by grades and the need to have a good headline to stick on their next newspaper advert.  He sounds like a horrible boss and will no doubt be putting the pressure on.

[Cpt_Reina]

The tories are going to have a hell of a summer.

Between them actually doing very well over the vaccination, pushing Britain's involvement in developing it, rolling it out incredibly more efficiently than the EU, getting back to business and normality quicker than those same EU nations because of that, talk of England as the sole nation hosting Euro 2021 as well as the general boom of good feeling from the general public as we're able to get back to living our lives there's going to be a HUGE wave of nationalism and Johnson et al will be like pigs in shit.

Brexit and its negative effects will be able to be buried in the pandemic recovery, the lines will be so blurred there'll be no traction for any critical examination of how this Tory Brexit is negatively affecting us.

Honestly it just makes it all the more baffling to me that Labour sat on their hands so much when our governments incompetence was literally killing people needlessly, a seed for them being irresponsible and reckless could have been planted with the electorate there and the window has well and truly been closed now

2021 is a write off in terms of anything damaging heading in the Tories direction, despite their awful handling of the pandemic they're going to end up doing very fucking well out of it.

[Jshooters]

The tories are going to have a hell of a summer.

Between them actually doing very well over the vaccination, pushing Britain's involvement in developing it, rolling it out incredibly more efficiently than the EU, getting back to business and normality quicker than those same EU nations because of that, talk of England as the sole nation hosting Euro 2021 as well as the general boom of good feeling from the general public as we're able to get back to living our lives there's going to be a HUGE wave of nationalism and Johnson et al will be like pigs in shit.

Brexit and its negative effects will be able to be buried in the pandemic recovery, the lines will be so blurred there'll be no traction for any critical examination of how this Tory Brexit is negatively affecting us.

Honestly it just makes it all the more baffling to me that Labour sat on their hands so much when our governments incompetence was literally killing people needlessly, a seed for them being irresponsible and reckless could have been planted with the electorate there and the window has well and truly been closed now

2021 is a write off in terms of anything damaging heading in the Tories direction, despite their awful handling of the pandemic they're going to end up doing very fucking well out of it.

Apart from the inquest (which they've agreed needs to happen)

[John C]

Honestly it just makes it all the more baffling to me that Labour sat on their hands so much when our governments incompetence was literally killing people needlessly, a seed for them being irresponsible and reckless could have been planted with the electorate there and the window has well and truly been closed now

I feel your pain mate, I was feeling the same each time we hurtled towards 2 GE defeats   

[Indomitable_Carp]

I feel your pain mate, I was feeling the same each time we hurtled towards 2 GE defeats   

4 GE defeats wasn't it?

[TepidT2O]

Rampant grade inflation?
Really?
What a disrespectful comment to all the teachers out there.

Teachers who want the best for the kids they teach and of course biased in their favour.

You’re asking teachers to choose between their professional judgment (which is inherently flawed anyway) and the interests of their students.

All the incentives are to inflate grades, teachers are in an impossible position.

[ljycb]

I feel your pain mate, I was feeling the same each time we hurtled towards 2 GE defeats   

Four defeats.

[Red-Soldier]

Four defeats.

Be five in a few years

[John C]

Yeah, I meant 2 in recent years when it was more predictable than the others. All 4 are extremely depressing though, and serve to illustrate my point that idiots in the country are are inclined to vote Tory if you give them an excuse.

[filopastry]

Yeah, I meant 2 in recent years when it was more predictable than the others. All 4 are extremely depressing though, and serve to illustrate my point that idiots in the country are are inclined to vote Tory if you give them an excuse.

Yes 2015 was a real kick in the balls, I genuinely thought that was strongly in hung parliament territory, triggered a lot of other shit as well

[killer-heels]

Annalise Dodds is shit.

[12C]

You may have misread it differently to how it was intended but no disrespect was meant.  It was well documented last year that most teachers will look for the positives in their students (and rightly so) and so those borderline grade decisions will, in most cases, be rounded up rather than down.  If that's repeated across the board then there will indeed be rampant grade inflation compared to a normal exam year where grade boundaries are adjusted to retain a comparable set of results to previous years.

I understand from my sister and brother-in-law - both teachers in a secondary school - that their headteacher is very much driven by grades and the need to have a good headline to stick on their next newspaper advert.  He sounds like a horrible boss and will no doubt be putting the pressure on.

All Headteachers are driven by grades these days
But coursework (when it was part of the system) was heavily monitored and moderated. Samples of work were taken up from random students to ensure teachers were not doing as you suggest.
It was only when Gove got in, and he applied his own lack of morality, that his accusations of teachers somehow cheating at course work allowed him scrap it all in favour of exam only assessment. Remember this is the guy who scrapped the Baccalaureate after years of preparation by teachers because he couldn’t just award the contract to his “favoured” exam board/publisher.
Yes teachers want the best for their kids, but the big Tory Lie is that teachers are cheats.

My brother in law came out with a very insightful comment over this.
He said the problem with education is that unlike the Scots and the Welsh who manages education for their children, our Westminster wonders manage education for other people’s kids. The Tories (and some Labour) don’t send their kids to state schools so they aren’t really arsed. Gove, Gibb, Williamson, their kids will be alright.

[12C]

Teachers who want the best for the kids they teach and of course biased in their favour.

You’re asking teachers to choose between their professional judgment (which is inherently flawed anyway) and the interests of their students.

All the incentives are to inflate grades, teachers are in an impossible position.

But will you be inflating your grades?

[TepidT2O]

But will you be inflating your grades?

I will be mindful of the grades kids need for university.  I will be as generous as I think I can reasonably get away with.

And that’s where you get grade inflation.