Topic: The PL run-in

[slaphead]

I feel there is a either a lack of appreciation or a lack of respect for us in the media. Right from the season started all I've heard is how Everton, no Southampton, wait Leicester, actually Chelsea, definitely Spurs will take the league this season. Maybe it was the same when we looked early doors as if we would make a challenge a few years back?  I dunno. Or maybe I'm being paranoid and its just their way of keeping it interesting. Either way f**k them, us and Man City fighting it out I reckon.

[Jookie]

Or maybe I'm being paranoid and its just their way of keeping it interesting. Either way f**k them, us and Man City fighting it out I reckon.

The more teams involved, or perceived to be involved, the better for the TV companies and media as a whole. It degenerates so much more interest than them saying we are going to run away from it.

I think there is an element of truth in more teams being involved this season. You can see the same across other top European leagues currently. Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga are all pretty tight at the top and you don't have one of the favourites storming away with the league after 25-30% of the season gone. It'll be interesting to see how things progress across those top 5 leagues as the season goes on. But at the moment it's looking more likely than anytime in recent years that there may be surprise winners in at least 1 of the Top 5 leagues. I think the structure of this season's schedule, plus maybe the lack of transfer movement last summer and lack of fans, is making things a more even playing field across the board.

[redk84]

Everyone loves to see the fall from the top, especially in this country.
So I'm not surprised that media/outsiders consider us in trouble in regards to retaining the title, and will push that.
And if they're building Chelsea/Spurs to top us then fine. Go ahead, and we can quietly do what we do....I'd prefer it that way even.

Spurs have been impressive, 7/9 points from their last 3 fixtures especially considering their opponents. They still have a tough few games until Boxing day and watching them I guess its the games against the lesser opposition where they have to bully a win where it could be tough for them, especially if teams see them as genuine challengers and sit back against them.
Chelsea maybe the consistency I would say is the question mark on them....they were outclassed when they played us so will be interested to see how that City game goes for them.

City winning their game in hand will only be 3 points behind us. That is still where my main worry is.

I've felt we would do it at the beginning of this season. My reasons were that any dropoff we we had I don't think would have been matched by improvement in anyone else barring City and major injury problems. Didn't think the weird nature of this season would affect us more than any other team

Well we've had the really bad injuries. We've had VAR issues...what goes around will come around hopefully on that. But these are things out of our control

I just don't believe any other team has taken advantage of what's happened to us enough, as we are still top of the table and they have yet to face the sort of injuries in key positions that we have (our challengers I mean. Or have they? must admit i don't pay too much attention but can only think of  Aguero being out for length)

It's going to be a battle all the way regardless
Its all less intense in general since we finally won the league anyway. There is no obsession anymore, its great enjoying football this way

[Schmidt]

Maybe it's a result of reading RAWK too much but Wolves felt huge to me, not because of the 4-0 scoreline (though that was nice), but because of the 2 returning players - 0 new injuries. We're hitting a crucial stage of the season now where the schedule is going to be brutal for everyone, not just the teams in Europe, and if we were going into it already depleted it could've looked a bit more like past seasons where we have a bit of a flat spell through January.

We should be able to rotate pretty aggressively for the last group game and from then on use the full extent of the squad to really grind teams down.

[Caligula?]

It's going to be a real slog and I don't see us picking up more than 80-85 points this season. That being said, I don't see any other side doing it as well.

But this can't continue. We're literally losing a player per match due to injury. It's absolutely ridiculous. Jota against Midgetland and today Matip. It might be a precaution or he might miss 3 months. Worst case scenario is we absolutely need to sign a CB in January and hope we're no more than 4-5 points back of whoever it is that's top (if it's not us if course), get some players back and go on a run.

[kloppismydad]

..hope we're no more than 4-5 points back of whoever it is that's top (if it's not us if course), get some players back and go on a run.

Agree. If we're within 5-6 points of the team at the top in Feb, we can put together a run to win the league barring another injury crisis.

[Guz-kop]

Agree. If we're within 5-6 points of the team at the top in Feb, we can put together a run to win the league barring another injury crisis.

Or we win on Wednesday and go 3 ahead

We're no where near the level of the last 2 seasons but they were extraordinary levels. We're being destroyed by injuries, let's hope matip today was just a precaution

[El Lobo]

There is absolutely a title race this season but let’s be clear about those involved because it’s not Spurs or Leicester or anyone else vs Liverpool.

Those boys in black are really doing their chances no harm at all, I can just picture Coote, Mason et al lining up for their medals

[DelTrotter]

One of the great achievements in our history if we do it, not because the opposition are particularly good but we get an injury or two in every game we play and ridiculous officiating decisions against us in nearly every game we play.

[macmanamanaman]

For the Fulham game, we can't blame the ref, push on Salah notwithstanding. It was just our boys, not having enough intensity.

The league looks like being a battle of attrition.  Literally- the fittest team will win it.

(and right now, I don't think it will be us)

[skipper757]

Last couple of seasons, we've pulled some great results when we've played poorly at mediocre/poor sides, with results like:
-2-1 at Palace (Firmino winner then Zaha missing a sitter)
-1-0 at Sheffield United (Dean Henderson practically throwing it into the net for us and the McBurnie missing a good chance at the end)
-2-1 at Villa (Incredible turnaround)
-1-0 at Norwich (Lucky not to be behind before Mane's winner)
-2-1 at Fulham in 18/19 (Ridiculously stupid goal conceded to Ryan Babel of all people before Milner's penalty)
-3-1 at Southampton in 18/19 (Conceded to Shane Long of all people before Mo won it with 10 minutes left)
-0-2 at Cardiff in 18/19 (Cardiff missed the sitter of all sitters at 0-1 before we sealed it).
-3-2 at Newcastle in 18/19 (Salah injured, Newcastle levelled, but Origi won it)

Just some examples of the resilience the squad showed but also some luck involved in these sides mucking it up against us.  Unfortunately against Everton, Brighton, and Fulham this season, we haven't gotten over the line (poor officiating a key part of it).  Really unlucky against Everton and Brighton.  But on the other hand, lucky to not have conceded more against Brighton and Fulham.

We were masters at turning draws into wins.  It won't be as easy this year (again, VAR didn't help), but we do need to start to grind out wins away from home.  Just some belief that we can come away with 3 points.  Last two seasons, it seemed like there was no doubt we can turn it around or hang on even against a hostile crowd.  Even down 2-0 at Watford last year, I thought we could pull off the win.

Just need a few bounces to go our way to start turning some away draws into wins and keep our home form going.

Everyone's dropping points all over the place, so we'll be up there.

We always seem to leave it late at Craven Cottage during a title challenge, but we didn't get over the line for the 3 points today (thought Curtis' run was going to be the moment, but not to be!)

[Stockholm Syndrome]

 To be quite frank, we've not been fantastic this season. We've been fantastic at times (Chelsea, Arsenal, Leicester, Wolves) but generally we've not been hitting our usual high standard. Thats down to injuries, fatigue, among other things. To be honest with what we have had so far, it is a testament to how good we are that we are doing as well as we are.

We are still in it though, which any other season we'd be off the pace right now.

We need to start stringing some form together though. It really does feel like if we can move up a gear or two we can start building a healthy lead, we just haven't so far.

If we can have a bit of a lead or at there or there abouts come February we could then move on. But it would be nice if we can start picking up a bit of consistency (even if it's just grinding out wins).

Wednesday is an important game though; not a decider of course but a big game against our closest rival at the moment.

[Reeves]

Worst case scenario is we absolutely need to sign a CB in January

We do. Not just for centre back cover but also so that Fabinho can start playing back in midfield.

[RedSince86]

Dropped points against Brighton, Villa and Fulham.

Last season and the season before we would have racked up a aggregate score of 11-12 against those teams without conceding.

This season is a outlier, congested fixture list, tiredness, injuries and the table shows it with how bunched up it is and the middle of December, it's a total anamoly this season, more than the year Leicester won the title.

Any team that goes on a good run around Febuary onwards is winning this League at a canter, luckily our experience the last 2 seasons gives us an advantage, we have to stop dropping silly points now though, we have done brilliant this season against the established and top sides in the League, and just looked sluggish against the likes of Sheff Utd, Villa, Brighton, Fulham, is it a new mental thing thinking we just have to turn up against these sides and we'll get the 3 points, it seemed that way today against Fulham.

[wemmick]

Last couple of seasons, we've pulled some great results when we've played poorly at mediocre/poor sides, with results like:
-2-1 at Palace (Firmino winner then Zaha missing a sitter)
-1-0 at Sheffield United (Dean Henderson practically throwing it into the net for us and the McBurnie missing a good chance at the end)
-2-1 at Villa (Incredible turnaround)
-1-0 at Norwich (Lucky not to be behind before Mane's winner)
-2-1 at Fulham in 18/19 (Ridiculously stupid goal conceded to Ryan Babel of all people before Milner's penalty)
-3-1 at Southampton in 18/19 (Conceded to Shane Long of all people before Mo won it with 10 minutes left)
-0-2 at Cardiff in 18/19 (Cardiff missed the sitter of all sitters at 0-1 before we sealed it).
-3-2 at Newcastle in 18/19 (Salah injured, Newcastle levelled, but Origi won it)

Just some examples of the resilience the squad showed but also some luck involved in these sides mucking it up against us.  Unfortunately against Everton, Brighton, and Fulham this season, we haven't gotten over the line (poor officiating a key part of it).  Really unlucky against Everton and Brighton.  But on the other hand, lucky to not have conceded more against Brighton and Fulham.

We were masters at turning draws into wins.  It won't be as easy this year (again, VAR didn't help), but we do need to start to grind out wins away from home.  Just some belief that we can come away with 3 points.  Last two seasons, it seemed like there was no doubt we can turn it around or hang on even against a hostile crowd.  Even down 2-0 at Watford last year, I thought we could pull off the win.

Just need a few bounces to go our way to start turning some away draws into wins and keep our home form going.

Everyone's dropping points all over the place, so we'll be up there.

We always seem to leave it late at Craven Cottage during a title challenge, but we didn't get over the line for the 3 points today (thought Curtis' run was going to be the moment, but not to be!)

Generally agree, although I think this season may be about grinding losses into draws for the top sides away. None of them are consistently in good form. Our home form will be key.

[killer-heels]

We are still winning it.

[Crosby Nick]

Generally agree, although I think this season may be about grinding losses into draws for the top sides away. None of them are consistently in good form. Our home form will be key.

Weirdly everyone else seems to have half decent away form, but not great at home.

We’re the only team in the League still smashing it at home. If we can sustain that we only need half decent away form to be ok. Easier said than done of course.

[Kekule]

Dropped points against Brighton, Villa and Fulham.

Last season and the season before we would have racked up a aggregate score of 11-12 against those teams without conceding.

This season is a outlier, congested fixture list, tiredness, injuries and the table shows it with how bunched up it is and the middle of December, it's a total anamoly this season, more than the year Leicester won the title.

Any team that goes on a good run around Febuary onwards is winning this League at a canter, luckily our experience the last 2 seasons gives us an advantage, we have to stop dropping silly points now though, we have done brilliant this season against the established and top sides in the League, and just looked sluggish against the likes of Sheff Utd, Villa, Brighton, Fulham, is it a new mental thing thinking we just have to turn up against these sides and we'll get the 3 points, it seemed that way today against Fulham.

I think we’re going out trying to conserve energy, for obvious reasons.  When we’ve done that in recent seasons we’ve nearly always looked awful.  It’s like the Champions League away games from the previous couple of seasons where we’ve come unstuck because we didn’t necessarily have the squad to rotate so the same players had to play, but we were at 85% because we had another bite at the cherry later on.

Then when we got the the squad where we could rotate and be near top gear every game we lose a pretty useful entire XI to longish injuries.

[Haggis36]

16 fit senior players, of which 3 are GKs, and we're out on our arses less than a third of the way into the season. Zero fit senior CBs. I just don't see it. We could conceivably go into the busiest, roughest part of the season struggling to put out a senior 11, forget rotation.

It's honestly a testament to how fucking good we are that we are joint top after a frankly once-in-a-lifetime disastrous season in terms of injuries.

[Guz-kop]

Dropped points against Brighton, Villa and Fulham.

Maybe, or you look at Villa and Watford where we scraped a win and lost 3-0. Or ground out 1-0 away to Norwich. Got a bit lucky against southampton, won by a single goal at sheffield united due to a keeper error, single goal at crystal palace with an 85th minute winner,

We don't steam roll teams away from home. We find ways to get through most of the time. We're actually quite a cautious team away from home in the last 18 months. We didn't find a way tonight or Brighton. What's worrying is how badly we've played in the first half of all 3 games you mention but if it weren't for the brighton pen we're two points clear. And interestingly people will talk about low block a lot but both villa and brighton went straight at us from kick off tonight and Brighton kept trying to get in behind in the first half. There's something not quite right in the gap between midfield and defence which is making us vulnerable in the wide areas, but we're not miles off. 

[Mister Flip Flop]

16 fit senior players, of which 3 are GKs, and we're out on our arses less than a third of the way into the season. Zero fit senior CBs. I just don't see it. We could conceivably go into the busiest, roughest part of the season struggling to put out a senior 11, forget rotation.

It's honestly a testament to how fucking good we are that we are joint top after a frankly once-in-a-lifetime disastrous season in terms of injuries.

It really is. I rank it higher than last seasons achievement thus far to be honest. Absolute mentality monsters

[skipper757]

Maybe, or you look at Villa and Watford where we scraped a win and lost 3-0. Or ground out 1-0 away to Norwich. Got a bit lucky against southampton, won by a single goal at sheffield united due to a keeper error, single goal at crystal palace with an 85th minute winner,

We don't steam roll teams away from home. We find ways to get through most of the time. We're actually quite a cautious team away from home in the last 18 months. We didn't find a way tonight or Brighton. What's worrying is how badly we've played in the first half of all 3 games you mention but if it weren't for the brighton pen we're two points clear. And interestingly people will talk about low block a lot but both villa and brighton went straight at us from kick off tonight and Brighton kept trying to get in behind in the first half. There's something not quite right in the gap between midfield and defence which is making us vulnerable in the wide areas, but we're not miles off. 

Yep, we had some poor quality games in general against weaker sides the last two seasons, but that seemed designed for us to not go too gung ho constantly.  We were always grinding out wins and not just blowing teams away.  We tend to save the best performances for the big matches/tests but then use game management to get through the other games.  We pulled it out of the fire on numerous occasions (even this year we've done so at home and should've had 2 more away wins but for VAR).

However, to your point, Villa, Brighton, and Fulham got players in behind quite a bit, and created some decent opportunities.  Normally in these slog type of matches, there aren't many openings either side, and then we take control for the win.  Nowadays, teams are finding ways to create some decent chances (runs by the likes of Watkins, Connolly, Cavaleiro, etc are timed well).

Just need some of that killer instinct back, and Villa aside, we've been able to keep teams at bay overall defensively (better goalkeeping helps too), so just need to find the killer instinct in front of goal again.

Jota's absence hurts as he's in great goal-scoring form.  Firmino, as been discussed plenty on here, is not a consistent source of goals these days, and with Mane now scoreless in 6 straight PL matches (and Origi still totally off form), we'll need other players to step up for goals.  Mane, despite not scoring as much, still looks dangerous and can create something out of nothing, so it would be nice if Bobby can improve in front of goal to take some pressure off Salah.  Bobby was a good match-winner last year in tough matches (see Wolves away, Palace away, CWC, etc).  Neither Curtis nor Ox are shy shooting either, and though you wouldn't want to rely on that constantly, the midfield chipping in with a few would be nice (Gini's always capable of a big goal or two).  It's also ideal to keep Matip fit as not only is he a top-class defender, he's also a good threat on set-pieces and good for a goal here and there.

[Sooty89!!!]

Weirdly everyone else seems to have half decent away form, but not great at home.

We’re the only team in the League still smashing it at home. If we can sustain that we only need half decent away form to be ok. Easier said than done of course.

Our Away form isn’t as bad as it seems when you consider one of those games was City away, 2 of those games (Everton and Brighton) we were very unlucky not to get and could even say cheated out of 3 points. I don’t think our away form is cause for concern just yet.

[bornandbRED]

So who injured Joe Gomez? Pretty clear from Henderson’s comments that there were some weird circumstances around that injury..... also pretty difficult to tear your Patella tendon without external contact.

[Bobinhood]

I've never seen anything like this injury run.

If we can persevere and win something this year its going to be legendary. Maybe the second half of the year nobody gets hurt at all and it all just evens out. 

[OOS]

Our Away form isn’t as bad as it seems when you consider one of those games was City away, 2 of those games (Everton and Brighton) we were very unlucky not to get and could even say cheated out of 3 points. I don’t think our away form is cause for concern just yet.

18 points out of 18 at home.

7 out of 18 away. 16th in the away league table. Six games in like you said for context.

Lack of goalscorers outside ofSalah with Jota injured is gonna hurt us massively over Christmas. Need Mane and especially Firmino to start scoring again.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

this side never gives up so I'm not giving up on them.

[semit5]

So who injured Joe Gomez? Pretty clear from Henderson’s comments that there were some weird circumstances around that injury..... also pretty difficult to tear your Patella tendon without external contact.

What was said?

[farawayred]

No worries, lads and lasses, we are winning the Rehab Cup this season hands down. No one comes even close, and the strength of the team we can put out, oh my!...

[ScouserAtHeart]

So...we're without Van Dijk, Joe Gomez, Thiago Alcantara, Xherdan Shaqiri, James Milner, Naby Keita, Jota, Tsimikas and Matip right now, but are still level on points with the league leaders and topped the champions league group.

Amazing

[macmanamanaman]

this side never gives up so I'm not giving up on them.

That's all very well. But can you play centreback?

[beardsley4ever]

The last two seasons have polluted people's memories.  Champions don't need 99/100 points to win the league every year.  You just need more points than everyone else, and so far we've done that, despite playing away to Chelsea, City and Everton.  Going to be a tight race this year - put on your big boy pants, and settle in.

[ThePeetmix]

It's gonna be pretty non-stop all the way up until the end of January/early February.

All we need to do is stay in touch. The bonus is that every team in the league is in the same boat now regarding volume of games. I can't see many sides in the league having much consistency.

We need some luck with injuries though. The next 2 months are going to be full of anxiety for more injury announcements.

[PoetryInMotion]

18 points out of 18 at home.

7 out of 18 away. 16th in the away league table. Six games in like you said for context.

Lack of goalscorers outside ofSalah with Jota injured is gonna hurt us massively over Christmas. Need Mane and especially Firmino to start scoring again.

This season, 79 to 85 points should be enough. We should be good to win 16 Home games and draw the remaining 3 (we've won 6 already). That gives us 51 points. We have 7 points in Away games so far. If we win 7 of our remaining 13 Away games (just above 50%), we get 21 points. We draw 3 of the 6 games we drop points in, we get 3 more points. That's 24. Add it with the 7 points we have, we get 31 points. Adding 51 Home points with 31 Away points gives 82 points which puts us in the mix. One more win and we get 85 which probably puts us clear.

So, the margin we have is 3 Home draws and 3 Away draws, 3 Away losses. We can drop points in 8-9 more games. It's a tough season for everyone and nobody has been consistent so far.

[killer-heels]

It's gonna be pretty non-stop all the way up until the end of January/early February.

All we need to do is stay in touch. The bonus is that every team in the league is in the same boat now regarding volume of games. I can't see many sides in the league having much consistency.

We need some luck with injuries though. The next 2 months are going to be full of anxiety for more injury announcements.

The next two months? Surely you mean the next 6?

[BigCDump]

This season, 79 to 85 points should be enough. We should be good to win 16 Home games and draw the remaining 3 (we've won 6 already). That gives us 51 points. We have 7 points in Away games so far. If we win 7 of our remaining 13 Away games (just above 50%), we get 21 points. We draw 3 of the 6 games we drop points in, we get 3 more points. That's 24. Add it with the 7 points we have, we get 31 points. Adding 51 Home points with 31 Away points gives 82 points which puts us in the mix. One more win and we get 85 which probably puts us clear.

So, the margin we have is 3 Home draws and 3 Away draws, 3 Away losses. We can drop points in 8-9 more games. It's a tough season for everyone and nobody has been consistent so far.

That's a very good analysis and break down. Our squad players won't be helping as they will spend most or all of it injured (Matip, Thiago, Jota, Ox, Naby, Shaq, Tsimikas). With our our main stars already out (VvD and Gomez) we will need some serious spending in the January window to even get the numbers you are suggesting.

[Red_Rich]

Dropped points against Brighton, Villa and Fulham.

Last season and the season before we would have racked up a aggregate score of 11-12 against those teams without conceding.

This season is a outlier, congested fixture list, tiredness, injuries and the table shows it with how bunched up it is and the middle of December, it's a total anamoly this season, more than the year Leicester won the title.

Any team that goes on a good run around Febuary onwards is winning this League at a canter, luckily our experience the last 2 seasons gives us an advantage, we have to stop dropping silly points now though, we have done brilliant this season against the established and top sides in the League, and just looked sluggish against the likes of Sheff Utd, Villa, Brighton, Fulham, is it a new mental thing thinking we just have to turn up against these sides and we'll get the 3 points, it seemed that way today against Fulham.

Not according to Gary Neville it isn't.  Apparently the last 3 seasons have been the anomolies!  This season is now 'normal' in his view/

Anyway, it's obvious that the title race was always going to be closer this year due to all the conditions etc

Joe public and the general media will be happy that it's going to end up being a 5 or 6 horse race and who are we to deny them that fun.  What I don't dig are the laughs and hand-rubbing at every injury, bad decision and misfortune that we get.  They're loving it because they know it's the only way anyone else will win it this year.  We'd walk it otherwise.

What I will say is, whoever thinks it's theirs this year, make the most of it and grab it while you can because I'll bet my left nut that we'll be back next year to storm it!

Not saying this year is out of reach by the way but I'm just not feeling it.  Too much seems to be against us.

[Crosby Nick]

This does feel more like a title race from the 90s where before Christmas there were a bunch of teams in the mix, sometimes pretty unlikely ones (Wimbledon in 96/97, Sunderland in 99/00 I think). Eventually United tended to pull away. The couple of times they didn’t they had lost some key players (mainly Cantona) or someone went on a really good run (Arsenal 97/98).

I feel we are like United then. We’re the best team and we should normally win it from this position but there are factors making it hard for us this season. It was only a week ago that injuries were looking like they were clearing up and we were saying if we’re in touch in the new year we’ll finish strong. That can still happen. Wednesday/Saturday looks tough but then things do level off a bit and fixtures bite for the other teams too.

Still think unless City roll back 2-3 years and win 10 on the bounce we’ll be right in the mix coming into April.

[Red_Rich]

The last two seasons have polluted people's memories.  Champions don't need 99/100 points to win the league every year.  You just need more points than everyone else, and so far we've done that, despite playing away to Chelsea, City and Everton.  Going to be a tight race this year - put on your big boy pants, and settle in.

That's a very good point actually.

Apart from a team having a Leicester-style run where everything goes their way, we SHOULD still be just too good over 38 games.

With lots of teams involved and many with their tails up, it's only logical that teams will be taking points off each other all season and no one should break away.  As long as there's no one breaking away like that, it suits us.

[Samio]

The media are fucking loving the fact we have injuries so that there is a proper title race.

So much so that they actually aren't really mentioning the injuries we have.

Interesting, really. Basically saying we prefer professionals to be injured in order to give us some more excitement.