Topic: Jill's gorra boss Worcester Combi! (aka the weather thread)

[Slippers]

It's pissing down.

[Nobby Reserve]

Nobby, are you saying the prediction models are behaving unpredictably?! 

This is worth a read, by the way. I've been mocked before for liking at least the first third or so of The Day After Tomorrow - but the threat is real, albeit nowhere near as quickly as described in the remaining (mainly laughable) two thirds of that film.

Check out the AMOC...

https://www.businessinsider.com/day-after-tomorrow-was-right-and-wrong-about-climate-shifts-2019-3

Yeah, the theory has been around years. Thermohaline circulation is the driver - coupled with the topography of the ocean floor that dictates the direction of flow.

'AMOC' - or the North Atlantic Drift as it's more commonly known - has been weakening for a while now. What could tip it over the edge is a sudden influx of fresh water caused by, for example, an immense lake of meltwater forming on Greenland held by an ice dam, where that ice dam suddenly collapses and releases billions of gallons of fresh water.

Total shutdown of the NAD/AMOC wouldn't, however, create the massive polar vortexes which, in TDAT, funnelled super-cooled air from the troposphere down to the surface (and led to tornadoes, with huge pressure drops causing tsunamis). That was exaggerated bollocks in the film.

[rob1966]

Half 5 start for me tomorrow for a run to Avonmouth, I hope the truck I get has been out tonight, so the cab is nice and warm

[Nobby Reserve]

Half 5 start for me tomorrow for a run to Avonmouth, I hope the truck I get has been out tonight, so the cab is nice and warm

A really shit day on the cards for tomorrow. Showery sleet and cold rain, temps around 3c.

Not even going to get a snowy breakdown to this little spell. Just a boring fizzle-out.

Latest output also pointing to a shite week leading up to Xmas, then crap (mild, showery, windy) for Xmas Day itself.

[rob1966]

A really shit day on the cards for tomorrow. Showery sleet and cold rain, temps around 3c.

Not even going to get a snowy breakdown to this little spell. Just a boring fizzle-out.

Latest output also pointing to a shite week leading up to Xmas, then crap (mild, showery, windy) for Xmas Day itself.

3c will do, I've done enough shifts in the past with minus 4 and minus 5 temps.

Just hoping the twats on the M5 behave themselves.

[I've been a good boy]

Going up from 5 degrees to 15 on Monday, thank god for that.

[24/7]

Honestly, people, when you have weather events presenting ranges from -15C to +15C in a matter of a week, you shouldn't be thanking god, you should be bloody worried - but that's probably a debate best kept to the climate change thread (which reminds me - my friends in FFF point out that the correct term is "climate emergency")....  :'(

[rob1966]

Just nipped out to the car to put my gear in wearing my boxers  and shirt (no one is up at this stupid hour) and it felt warmer. Its 0c, mad how that feels warm, suppose the - 7c temps we've had all week does that to you?

[Son of Spion]

I drove to Skem late last night and it was -2. By 4:30am everything was white with frost but it started raining as the temperature rose.

My phone is saying it's a balmy 6°C now.

[rob1966]

I drove to Skem late last night and it was -2. By 4:30am everything was white with frost but it started raining as the temperature rose.

My phone is saying it's a balmy 6°C now.

It was 6c in Avonmouth, I'm at Hilton Park services now, it's 3c but feels freezing. Mind you it's about 23c in the truck 🤣

[Red Beret]

The ice has finally turned into slush by me, and it seems the rain is helping to wash it away. I hope the forecast for icy rain on Christmas Day mellows a bit over the next week though.

[Son of Spion]

It was 6c in Avonmouth, I'm at Hilton Park services now, it's 3c but feels freezing. Mind you it's about 23c in the truck 🤣

The weather is off its head. 

Rain, sleet or even snow is possible for Liverpool tomorrow, then the BBC are forecasting a ridiculous 15°C on Monday.

[rob1966]

The weather is off its head. 

Rain, sleet or even snow is possible for Liverpool tomorrow, then the BBC are forecasting a ridiculous 15°C on Monday.

End of days

I'm local tomorrow, Iceland RDC in Warrington, Tesco widnes, Bolton then Barton, so will get caught up in that.

[Son of Spion]

End of days

I'm local tomorrow, Iceland RDC in Warrington, Tesco widnes, Bolton then Barton, so will get caught up in that.

My cousin does runs up to Scotland in his HGV. I imagine that was fun over the past week.

The Met Office have a yellow warning for ice tomorrow, presumably after the rain/snow has fallen. Stay safe out there.

[rob1966]

My cousin does runs up to Scotland in his HGV. I imagine that was fun over the past week.

The Met Office have a yellow warning for ice tomorrow, presumably after the rain/snow has fallen. Stay safe out there.

Supposed to be freezing rain later, oh joy. The yards are all icy as fuck this morning

[Crosby Nick]

Stayed at Tebay on Friday night. Setting off from there with a couple of inches of fresh snow at 6am was a bit tricky. Proper freezing fog over Shap. Thankfully much better once we got down to sea level.

Feel like Rob with the out of date travel update.

[rob1966]

Stayed at Tebay on Friday night. Setting off from there with a couple of inches of fresh snow at 6am was a bit tricky. Proper freezing fog over Shap. Thankfully much better once we got down to sea level.

Feel like Rob with the out of date travel update.

Did you eat in the restaurant? I'd kill for one of their sausage bars right now.

At Tesco widnes, right next to the old bridge, wind is freezing and its trying to snow

[reddebs]

I successfully navigated all my cross country journeys.

Last night was the most straight forward apart from the amount of standing water, spray, wind and sleet round Saddleworth.

We're supposed to be getting 3 days of 40-50mph winds here starting later today but we're used to that 😂

[Red-Soldier]

Yellow warning of rain down here today, wet and grey all day.

[rob1966]

I successfully navigated all my cross country journeys.

Last night was the most straight forward apart from the amount of standing water, spray, wind and sleet round Saddleworth.

We're supposed to be getting 3 days of 40-50mph winds here starting later today but we're used to that 😂

Woodhead closed this morning , some dickhead tried to go over in a truck and jacknifed.

Was chatting with a tramper from AM Logistics this morning in Warrington, he's off to Buxton before parking up for the day, might be a bit iffy for him

[reddebs]

Woodhead closed this morning , some dickhead tried to go over in a truck and jacknifed.

Was chatting with a tramper from AM Logistics this morning in Warrington, he's off to Buxton before parking up for the day, might be a bit iffy for him

I nearly turned left instead of right at Tankersley roundabout coming from Sheffield last night Rob but I'm so glad I didn't when I saw how bad it was.

I know it would have been a lot worse over Woodhead and if anything happens, there's rarely a phone signal to get help.

[rob1966]

I nearly turned left instead of right at Tankersley roundabout coming from Sheffield last night Rob but I'm so glad I didn't when I saw how bad it was.

I know it would have been a lot worse over Woodhead and if anything happens, there's rarely a phone signal to get help.

You did the right thing

Any HGV driver with a brain avoids the woodhead in winter when the weather is bad , too dodgy, too likely to get suddenly closed and like you said, crap signal.

[reddebs]

You did the right thing

Any HGV driver with a brain avoids the woodhead in winter when the weather is bad , too dodgy, too likely to get suddenly closed and like you said, crap signal.

Yeah I've been crossing those hills using either Snake, Woodhead or the 62 for the last 30yrs and you get to know what's possible or not.

[Son of Spion]

Supposed to be freezing rain later, oh joy. The yards are all icy as fuck this morning

It's raining now in Sefton Park. Still got snow on the ground though.

Freezing rain is absolutely lethal. I remember coming off my bike in it once. I rode off Rimrose Valley into Crosby and everything was coated in ice. The roads, cars, trees, garden walls etc as the rain froze on everything it touched. The camber of the road was enough to see the bike go from under me as I landed on my back and slid along the road. No oncoming cars, thankfully.

[rob1966]

It's raining now in Sefton Park. Still got snow on the ground though.

Freezing rain is absolutely lethal. I remember coming off my bike in it once. I rode off Rimrose Valley into Crosby and everything was coated in ice. The roads, cars, trees, garden walls etc as the rain froze on everything it touched. The camber of the road was enough to see the bike go from under me as I landed on my back and slid along the road. No oncoming cars, thankfully.

Never done that thankfully. I'm currently sat at Great Bear next to the ship canal, its pissing it down and the rain is cold. At least I can turn the night heater on and get it toasty in the cab 😎

[redbyrdz]

It's raining now in Sefton Park. Still got snow on the ground though.

Freezing rain is absolutely lethal. I remember coming off my bike in it once. I rode off Rimrose Valley into Crosby and everything was coated in ice. The roads, cars, trees, garden walls etc as the rain froze on everything it touched. The camber of the road was enough to see the bike go from under me as I landed on my back and slid along the road. No oncoming cars, thankfully.

I remember freezing rain like that once when I went to school. It was that slick that I couldn't get onto the pavement, because it had a camber to the crossing. I was trying to use my hands and just couldn't pull myself up. Finally I managed to step on a bit of grass between the paving stones and jump to some sort of flower pot, past the camber, lol.

[Son of Spion]

I remember freezing rain like that once when I went to school. It was that slick that I couldn't get onto the pavement, because it had a camber to the crossing. I was trying to use my hands and just couldn't pull myself up. Finally I managed to step on a bit of grass between the paving stones and jump to some sort of flower pot, past the camber, lol.

Yep, it's absolutely lethal stuff. Super lubricated black ice that wants to kill you. 😫

[Son of Spion]

Never done that thankfully. I'm currently sat at Great Bear next to the ship canal, its pissing it down and the rain is cold. At least I can turn the night heater on and get it toasty in the cab 😎

That sounds rather cosy. 😊

[Nobby Reserve]

Still loads of uncertainty in the model output for Xmas Day.

All seems to hinge on where a huge storm goes when it exits the USA on Thursday/Friday. If it goes eastwards across the Atlantic, the UK can expect average to above-average temps, windy, and periods of rain next weekend. Some models are running this storm northwards, though, so it pumps warm air up the west of Greeland, which helps inflate the high pressure there. That in turn puts the UK under a cold northerly, with help from a big low pressure over Scandinavia.

This is the latest chart from the GFS model for midday Xmas Day; at this point, the colder airmass is just into Northern England and spreading south:




Six hours later, and that cold air is down to around a line running approx the Severn Estuary to The Wash. Snow showers would follow behind:




It's just one run from one model, and the likelihood remains lower than the form-horse of average temps for Enalgand & Wales (cooler, possibly cold, in Scotland)

My personal Xmas weather nirvana would be snow from early evening on Xmas Eve.

[rob1966]

Boiling out there today, its warmer than in the house

[Slippers]

Boiling out there today, its warmer than in the house

It's ridiculous,I couldn't wait to get home and take off my coat.

[liversaint]

Boiling out there today, its warmer than in the house

You’re not kidding. 15c in Salford at 4pm. Stepped outside this morning and it was like getting off the plane in Palma in August. Crazy change overnight.

[Red Beret]

stuffed my brand new cardie in my backpack, where it promptly stuck to the velcro patch inside which messed up the neat pattern and stitching - it's a very bog standard TJs cardie. 

Looking forward to a warm, wet Crimbo.

[Nobby Reserve]

Looking forward to a warm, wet Crimbo.

Unfortunately (or fortunately if you're that way inclined), any model support from cold air returning from the north just before or over Xmas has largely diminished.

Still the possibility post-Xmas, but it's too frigging late then.


One box I so want to tick is snow beginning late-afternoon/early evening Xmas Eve, then continuing into the night. These days, we go out for tea/supper on Xmas Eve to a country pub somewhere. To be inside, tucking into some festive scran and sipping an ale, warmed by a real fire, and watching the flakes fall and begin to accumulate. I think I'd have a petit mort.

[rob1966]

Unfortunately (or fortunately if you're that way inclined), any model support from cold air returning from the north just before or over Xmas has largely diminished.

Still the possibility post-Xmas, but it's too frigging late then.


One box I so want to tick is snow beginning late-afternoon/early evening Xmas Eve, then continuing into the night. These days, we go out for tea/supper on Xmas Eve to a country pub somewhere. To be inside, tucking into some festive scran and sipping an ale, warmed by a real fire, and watching the flakes fall and begin to accumulate. I think I'd have a petit mort.

What is this, Holiday Inn or White Christmas?

I can't remember if I've ever seen it snow on Xmas Eve or Xmas day. I know we've had snow on the ground, 2010 it was really thick by ours and I also remember snow in December, must have been 1981 if I remember right.

[reddebs]

Been on a very bracing walk to the beach with my sister, the granddaughters and the dogs which was fab 😁

My best snow at Xmas was when I was about 16/17 and we woke up to about a foot of it on Boxing Day.

We lived in a very rural area at one end of a mile long lane and my sister's boyfriends family lived at the other end. 

He turned up round lunchtime with his brother in an old Landover and with a proper sled, wood with metal runners which we tied to the back of the landrover and spent the afternoon sledging on the road.

Each end of th road was a wide T-junction so 3 up on a sled and doing handbrake turns 😂😂😂

Kids today, they've never lived 😁

[Nobby Reserve]

What is this, Holiday Inn or White Christmas?

I can't remember if I've ever seen it snow on Xmas Eve or Xmas day. I know we've had snow on the ground, 2010 it was really thick by ours and I also remember snow in December, must have been 1981 if I remember right.

Being a Statto...

As far as where I live, we had snow on the ground in 1981 after an almost country-wide snowfall a week or two before Xmas.

Woke up to a covering of snow (1-2cm) on Xmas morning 1996. Was in the middle of a cold but mainly dry spell and this was a rogue shower that passed over Merseyside/SW Lancs/N Cheshire.

In 2004, we had snow/soft hail showers piling in on Xmas Day afternoon, leaving a covering of about 5cm. This froze once it got dark, making the roads treacherous that night.

2009, we'd had snow accumulating all the week before Xmas from showers from the NW, so it was 10cm deep by Xmas day. Partial thaw on Boxing Day before re-freezing, and only fully meltng on the 27th/28th.

2010, we had a huge snowfall (16cm) on the Friday before Xmas in the middle of that really cold spell, and it was still pristine by Xmas Day. Again, melted 27th/28th.

2014 had an unexpected Boxing Day night snowfall (about 6-7cm of rather wet snow, which had mostly been washed away by the following morning

[rob1966]

1981 was mad, we had tons of snow that December. My Dad had fucked off in the September and was living at my Nans in Walton. The buses were off due to the snow and he walked from my Nans to Tower Hill with a big bag full of presents for me and our kid, he was frozen when he got to ours. He then walked back to my Nans the same night.

1996 I was in Bournemouth over Xmas, drove down Xmas Eve, so missed the snow.

09 was when I took one of my favourite pics of the missus in the snow and 2010 was a nightmare as it rained on Christmas night then froze and turned our road into a sheet of ice. You couldn't drive on it, it was like glass. About 4 of us went out  with picks and sledghammers and broke a huge section up so we could get out, its stayed like that for about 3 weeks. I think that was the year we got 15 inches of snow in about an hour in Manc, I was up to my knees in it.

[Red Beret]

I remember 2009/10 very well as I was living on Dale Street at the time, working in the Liver Building. Snowed like a bugger overnight and completely caught the council flat footed. Froze solid and by morning it was just an ice rink. Normally you'd expect the city centre roads at least to be clear, but these were lethal. I'll never forget being by the town hall and watching a 4x4's wheels stop as the driver applied the brakes - but he just kept right on going down Water Street for a good distance. He was lucky to stop at all.

[rob1966]

I remember 2009/10 very well as I was living on Dale Street at the time, working in the Liver Building. Snowed like a bugger overnight and completely caught the council flat footed. Froze solid and by morning it was just an ice rink. Normally you'd expect the city centre roads at least to be clear, but these were lethal. I'll never forget being by the town hall and watching a 4x4's wheels stop as the driver applied the brakes - but he just kept right on going down Water Street for a good distance. He was lucky to stop at all.

When we had the massive snow dump, I went for a piss about 5am and there was a little bit of snow falling, the alarm went off at just gone 6 for the missus to go to work, looked out the window and it was a blanket of snow. Went to clear her car, there was about a foot of snow on the car, told her she wasn't going to work. One of my neighbours drove down the road, he'd been on his way to work and turned around, just about made it home. Another, against our advice, tried to go to work, he worked at Fiddlers Ferry. He walked back 5 minutes later having abandoned his car at the end of the road as he couldn't get up the slope and couldn't get back