Given that they've only played ourselves and Tottenham out of all of the 'traditional' top 6 or the actual top 6, I reckon they'll drop maybe 15 more points at least, which would leave them still on a solid 88 points.
Given their greater propensity to blow teams away, I think we'll need to finish ahead of them - i.e. at least 89 points. That means we would need to win about 19 of 26 remaining games - the rest we can afford to lose.
Alternatively if we won only 17 of the remaining 26 (about 2/3 of remaining games), we would have to draw another 4 to get to the same total.
I reckon if we manage to pick up maximum points from our remaining fixtures this year - Palace (a), Brighton (h), Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), Watford (h), West Ham (a), Leicester (a), Wolves (h), which, excepting Leicester, is about as easy a run as we'll get all season, we'll have it in the bag. That would leave us requiring only about 1.72 points a game for the remainder of the season, which would be easily achievable, even allowing for an injury crisis.
