Topic: The Klopp Template

[AndyMuller]

Four years to the day since that 4-1 defeat at Wembley against Spurs. Very much a turning point in Klopp's reign. Since that game, we've lost 4 league games infront of fans in 4 years.

Unbelievable. Lovren was an absolute trainwreck that game 

[Asam]

Whatever the contract we give salah please offer Jurgen more and get him to commit to a few more seasons

[clinical]

I genuinely believe he's the best manager the game has ever seen. Sure others win more when they have unlimited funds. But without much money what he's done is unheard of.

[Dim Glas]

I genuinely believe he's the best manager the game has ever seen. Sure others win more when they have unlimited funds. But without much money what he's done is unheard of.

It is always amazing to me how much more isn’t made of what he did at Dortmund. For me - more impressive than Leicester winning the league. Not seen as such, because Dortmund historically are a big club with a huge fanbase.

But what he did there was utterly incredible, they spent around 30 mill on transfers up to that first league championship (breaking even on net), they where an incredibly young team, with up to 8 of the regular first 11 aged 22 and younger, and they did it playing brilliant football.

The man is genius. And has choose this path, after 3 seasons at Dortmund he could have moved and started picking and choosing far easier jobs. And yes, he won’t win as many trophies as some, but I bet he gets so much more satisfaction from what he does win and the bonds he builds with the players and the clubs he achieves it with.

[thejbs]

Switch budgets with Pep and Klopp will do better.
Give him and pep the same budget and Klopp will do better.

[Vinay]

The closest any managers come to him in modern days are
Rafael Benitez
Guy Roux
Marcelo Bielsa⅚

[PaulF]

Switch budgets with Pep and Klopp will do better.
Give him and pep the same budget and Klopp will do better.

That might not be true. The challenge and the underdog status might be what drives klopp. He might just get bored doing it if he can buy the league.
He'd have won the CL with them though.

[royhendo]

Interesting stuff last night from Dan Kennett and others on the 3 horse race and 'running hot'. https://twitter.com/DanKennett/status/1452374325944856592

https://twitter.com/swickenburg/status/1452517731970940928


I'm interested in the law of diminishing returns in this context. What's the cut off expected mark we'd need to hit to go 95 points plus?

Also I can see Chelsea's performance is statistically hard to sustain, and I can see that City's is their default setting... but ours - if we're one standard deviation up, and our best player has just levelled up, is this what a 'level up' looks like (in that a player starts routinely scoring goals he's got no right to)?

[Chris~]

Even if we drop back to our current XG level we're still at a title winning level and around what it was in 18/19 for us and City for example.

Also I can see Chelsea's performance is statistically hard to sustain, and I can see that City's is their default setting... but ours - if we're one standard deviation up, and our best player has just levelled up, is this what a 'level up' looks like (in that a player starts routinely scoring goals he's got no right to)?

More likely he's hitting a hot streak like Jota did at this time last season and wont outscore it at his.curremt rate over a long period.

[lionel_messias]

He's that good, the coaches in his team need to be drinking up everything he's is doing and how he handles himself. Pep Linders (sic) is highly rated as a performance coach but struggled in his first stint as a number one. Hopefully Klopp will recommend some solutions when he finally pops off. I still think Klopp, the family man will honour his contract and head off in 2024, best we can hope for I think is a couple years of extension.

Right now, he's just peerless. He uses the resources as his disposal better than any manager at the top level. He will deploy James Milner at right back, while his rivals will spend £100 million on a player they don't need or £120 million+ to send their team backwards.

I'm not sure what Klopp with a higher budget looks like, he looks just might fine as he is, to be honest.

[palimpsest]

Interesting stuff last night from Dan Kennett and others on the 3 horse race and 'running hot'. https://twitter.com/DanKennett/status/1452374325944856592

https://twitter.com/swickenburg/status/1452517731970940928


I'm interested in the law of diminishing returns in this context. What's the cut off expected mark we'd need to hit to go 95 points plus?

Also I can see Chelsea's performance is statistically hard to sustain, and I can see that City's is their default setting... but ours - if we're one standard deviation up, and our best player has just levelled up, is this what a 'level up' looks like (in that a player starts routinely scoring goals he's got no right to)?

I really don’t know much about football analytics, so this is fascinating to me. So we can expect Chelsea to drop off soonish, and from then on it’s a two-horse race between us and City?

[BassTunedToRed]

It feels appropriate to share this stat here:

Most attacking third pressures at Old Trafford yesterday, a match in which Liverpool had 63% possession:
10 - Firmino
8 - Manchester United
7 - Jota
https://fbref.com/en/matches/b886bec4/North-West-Derby-Manchester-United-Liverpool-October-24-2021-Premier-League

This is what coaching and a well thought out system of play and years of planning and preparation can achieve. Ole seemed to think United could just turn up and press Liverpool, and at the business end of the pitch his whole team couldn't match what Bobby did in 76 minutes. And it was wonderful to see.

[ScouserAtHeart]

The closest any managers come to him in modern days are
Rafael Benitez
Guy Roux
Marcelo Bielsa⅚

5/6th of Bielsa?

[royhendo]

I really don’t know much about football analytics, so this is fascinating to me. So we can expect Chelsea to drop off soonish, and from then on it’s a two-horse race between us and City?

Potentially, I think that's what this says unless Chelsea find a way to grind it out (which is possible). You'd expect them to fall just short of the other two based on them, as my old boss puts it, 'not being used to the long grass where the big dogs pee'.

[Dave McCoy]

Without turning this into a Title Race or xG thread the problem is that Chelsea have way over performed to an almost laughable degree yet the points count just the same.  They've played us, ManC, Arsenal, Spurs, and Villa in this stretch and have it pretty easy now until 2022 aside from a Leicester-Juve-ManU week in at the end of next Month.  Even if they start regressing they should be able to keep stacking up the points based on schedule strength alone and at some point it becomes a problem regression or not.

Anyway, to be more on topic it will be interesting to follow as the year progresses how we continually adjust to inverting Trent and covering the space behind him without it being in the 18/19 style where it's just a CM sitting behind him.  We clearly want that right sided CM to be way more involved in the attacking 3rd for the patterns with Trent and Salah.  Hendo in 18/19 would never be where Keita was yesterday for example  It's clearly working to devastating effect but it's also where our potential undoing can be.  Yesterday it was solved by Konate.  Next week?  Next month?  Just interesting things to pick up on.

[RedG13]

Interesting stuff last night from Dan Kennett and others on the 3 horse race and 'running hot'. https://twitter.com/DanKennett/status/1452374325944856592

https://twitter.com/swickenburg/status/1452517731970940928


I'm interested in the law of diminishing returns in this context. What's the cut off expected mark we'd need to hit to go 95 points plus?

Also I can see Chelsea's performance is statistically hard to sustain, and I can see that City's is their default setting... but ours - if we're one standard deviation up, and our best player has just levelled up, is this what a 'level up' looks like (in that a player starts routinely scoring goals he's got no right to)?

Will say Liverpool in the title winning season and the season before irc overperformed XG and XGa however when you have an Elite level Goalkeeper and Elite Finisher that can happens not at the extreme of Chelsea and probably not as much for Liverpool however if Liverpool ended the season with 80 xg and 35 xga and finished with around 90ish and allowed 30ish would be able the same level as those 2 seasons.
To get 95 points probably need 90 plus goals and around 30 allowed.
I expect the title to be 90 plus points

[RedG13]

Without turning this into a Title Race or xG thread the problem is that Chelsea have way over performed to an almost laughable degree yet the points count just the same.  They've played us, ManC, Arsenal, Spurs, and Villa in this stretch and have it pretty easy now until 2022 aside from a Leicester-Juve-ManU week in at the end of next Month.  Even if they start regressing they should be able to keep stacking up the points based on schedule strength alone and at some point it becomes a problem regression or not.

Anyway, to be more on topic it will be interesting to follow as the year progresses how we continually adjust to inverting Trent and covering the space behind him without it being in the 18/19 style where it's just a CM sitting behind him.  We clearly want that right sided CM to be way more involved in the attacking 3rd for the patterns with Trent and Salah.  Hendo in 18/19 would never be where Keita was yesterday for example  It's clearly working to devastating effect but it's also where our potential undoing can be.  Yesterday it was solved by Konate.  Next week?  Next month?  Just interesting things to pick up on.

I think signing of Elliott, Thiago, Keita and Ox have been be brought to be used as more of 10 role from deeper inside right as the CM to the left of Fabinho in Klopp is the one progressing the ball and helping protect the counter more. Thiago and Keita can play both roles too. Jones also may fit this on the right side however I dont think he played much on the right side(I would feel he can do this role also).
Just think of the formation roles in a 4231 and make with the striker non central from the right side. It really a mix of the 4231 with 433 mixed in. Salah on Heat map is generally the highest on the pitch. In the rare time Liverpool has to defend from deep, Salah is supposed to stay higher up the pitch to be the outlet(he does on this defending set pieces too). Salah will cover in tracking ball for when player go press or need cover.

[Peabee]

I really don’t know much about football analytics, so this is fascinating to me. So we can expect Chelsea to drop off soonish, and from then on it’s a two-horse race between us and City?

Naive xG models are known to underestimate the top teams and overestimate the shite teams as they’re based on averages.

Chelsea could be doing something in their defensive patterns that wouldn’t be “seen” by the xGA model. The xG models we see are based on averages and don’t take into account individual players or teams, so maybe Tuchel has defensive patterns that are pushing down the xGA of chances in certain pitch positions. If it’s just luck, then yeah it’s unlikely they’ll keep it up by such a margin.

With the clubs that use data science in their coaching, they are bound to look at how to prevent chances that have a high xG. It’s also why we don’t see as many shots from outside the box since xG models have been used, because they have a very low probability of being scored.

There are other models such as non-shot xG which take into account other patterns of play not just chances.

[tubby]

I do wonder what Ade Akinbiyi's xG would've been like for Leicester when he seemed to whiff at least one clear cut chance in each match.

[BassTunedToRed]

Chelsea could be doing something in their defensive patterns that wouldn’t be “seen” by the xGA model. The xG models we see are based on averages and don’t take into account individual players or teams, so maybe Tuchel has defensive patterns that are pushing down the xGA of chances in certain pitch positions. If it’s just luck, then yeah it’s unlikely they’ll keep it up by such a margin.

It's worth looking at post-shot xG. I haven't seen the figures following the latest round of matches, but prior to that Chelsea had allowed 4.6 post-shot xG from 8.6 xG. So in other words, either teams are wasting their best chances by not putting them on target, or Chelsea are very good at blocking shots (or, of course, probably both).

Liverpool's title winning team of 2019/20 had the best record for this, with opponents' xG diminished by 27% in the post-shot model. Chelsea are at 87%, so they should drop off at some point.

[El Lobo]

XG certainly isn't the be all and end all, but it does seem to back up what a lot of people have said when watching Chelsea. In most of their games they've had good chunks where they've been clearly second best. Thats not to say they're not a good team, and clearly one of the three best in the league. But it does suggest there's a decent chance of a drop off from them when things even out a little bit.

[Peabee]

It's worth looking at post-shot xG. I haven't seen the figures following the latest round of matches, but prior to that Chelsea had allowed 4.6 post-shot xG from 8.6 xG. So in other words, either teams are wasting their best chances by not putting them on target, or Chelsea are very good at blocking shots (or, of course, probably both).

Liverpool's title winning team of 2019/20 had the best record for this, with opponents' xG diminished by 27% in the post-shot model. Chelsea are at 87%, so they should drop off at some point.

Interesting. They should drop off looking at that, but it won’t be as drastic as some people are expecting. They also have a world class keeper and that PS xG of 4.6 compared with 3 goals actually conceded is possible. Alisson, in our final ten games last season, outperformed PS xG by 42%.

The diminishing of xG from 8.6 to 4.6 post shot is likely a mixture of luck and something they’re doing with blocking chances, like you say. But any drop off won’t be as severe as some people are expecting (e.g. they are unlikely to drop to a zero GD).

[Dave McCoy]

Naive xG models are known to underestimate the top teams and overestimate the shite teams as they’re based on averages.

Chelsea could be doing something in their defensive patterns that wouldn’t be “seen” by the xGA model. The xG models we see are based on averages and don’t take into account individual players or teams, so maybe Tuchel has defensive patterns that are pushing down the xGA of chances in certain pitch positions. If it’s just luck, then yeah it’s unlikely they’ll keep it up by such a margin.

With the clubs that use data science in their coaching, they are bound to look at how to prevent chances that have a high xG. It’s also why we don’t see as many shots from outside the box since xG models have been used, because they have a very low probability of being scored.

There are other models such as non-shot xG which take into account other patterns of play not just chances.

I don't really get what you're saying here.  Probably better for the Stats thread but all xG models are based on averages.  What you could say is very good teams and very bad teams are outliers which is what makes them what they are, very good or very bad.

[Eeyore]

Interesting. They should drop off looking at that, but it won’t be as drastic as some people are expecting. They also have a world class keeper and that PS xG of 4.6 compared with 3 goals actually conceded is possible. Alisson, in our final ten games last season, outperformed PS xG by 42%.

The diminishing of xG from 8.6 to 4.6 post shot is likely a mixture of luck and something they’re doing with blocking chances, like you say. But any drop off won’t be as severe as some people are expecting (e.g. they are unlikely to drop to a zero GD).

I think a lot of it is down to the very top teams being able to dictate what chances they give up. Chelsea are very good at defending deep and Mendy is an exceptional shot stopper. So it suits them to defend deep and allow opponents to come on to them and have plenty of shots.

Then you have us and City who have two keepers who are exceptional at playing behind a high line and snuffing out 1 v 1's. So it suits us to defend high and allow teams to look for through balls.

That for me makes Solskjaer's decision to press us even more baffling. De Gea is a good shot stopper but absolutely woeful at 1 v 1's. In 17/18 De Gea massively outperformed PSxG but he did so in a Mourinho team that defended extremely deep and allowed him to use his reflexes.

Mendy is a similar keeper to De Gea for me and very athletic and exceptional at making point blank reflex saves. It will be interesting to see how his numbers change if teams start parking the bus and look to counter attack Chelsea. 

[royhendo]

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with discussing XG in here. It’s always nice to better understand the statistical watermark the template leaves behind, no?

Quote of the day from Pep Lijnders:
“If you want to be a chef you have to spend time in the kitchen.” (On allowing big Sepp to play against us.)

[afc tukrish]

Quote of the day from Pep Lijnders:
“If you want to be a chef you have to spend time in the kitchen.” (On allowing big Sepp to play against us.)

I'm not at all convinced that Pep is the man to replace Klopp; think he's a brilliant coach but not necessarily up to the management part.

But quotes like the one above are making me reconsider. 

[RedG13]

I'm not at all convinced that Pep is the man to replace Klopp; think he's a brilliant coach but not necessarily up to the management part.

But quotes like the one above are making me reconsider. 

He feels like being prep to take over for at least the year that Klopp takes a sabbatical. He did fail in the Netherlands' and seemed to have learned from it. I think keeping the full structure of management part is very important for whenever Klopp leaves.

[royhendo]

[lamonti]

With the clubs that use data science in their coaching, they are bound to look at how to prevent chances that have a high xG. It’s also why we don’t see as many shots from outside the box since xG models have been used, because they have a very low probability of being scored.

This is one of the great shames of the modern game.

[thaddeus]

This is one of the great shames of the modern game.

Solskjaer encourages his players to shoot as soon as they get a sight of goal.  It's why they frequently fill up the Goal of the Month slots but also why in almost every game they play the shots metrics are meaningless.  At the weekend I remember Rashford (wide) and Greenwood (saved) both having low percentage long-range shots in a game in which Man U had very little possession and certainly very little final third possession.

Without speculative long-range shots though we would probably have won the league a season earlier as that Kompany shot against Leicester would never have been sanctioned by Guardiola!  Also Leicester wouldn't have won the FA Cup last season without Tielemans banging a shot in from 25 yards.

Hendo has scored a couple of belters in his time at the club and Trent can catch hold of a shot but we don't really have any players that are great at long rangers.  Maybe if Stevie was still playing we'd see a few more long range shots.

[afc tukrish]

He feels like being prep to take over for at least the year that Klopp takes a sabbatical. He did fail in the Netherlands' and seemed to have learned from it. I think keeping the full structure of management part is very important for whenever Klopp leaves.

Not picking on Pep, but Roy's full quote above has me turned around again.

There's nothing wrong in what he's said; it's fabulously modern and an ethos I fully support. We bring players through.

But it's so long, and earnest, reminds me of something Brendan might have struggled to say.

I imagined Jurgen saying only the short, pithy version, followed by one of his great, belly laughs and grins.

That sort of charisma is I think a necessary part of the role. Don't know if that's part of Pep's personality...

[SamLad]

The closest any managers come to him in modern days are
Rafael Benitez
Guy Roux
Marcelo Bielsa⅚

for the life of me, I have no clue why people make such a fuss of Bielsa.  his record is decent I guess, but prior to getting Leeds promoted, the last thing he won was in 1998 in Argentina.  he's never won any kind of trophy in Europe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcelo_Bielsa#Manager

what am I missing?

[Dim Glas]

for the life of me, I have no clue why people make such a fuss of Bielsa.  his record is decent I guess, but prior to getting Leeds promoted, the last thing he won was in 1998 in Argentina.  he's never won any kind of trophy in Europe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcelo_Bielsa#Manager

what am I missing?

He’s seen as an inovator and an influencer I think? Someone due to his style and technique has had an impact on a lot of other coaches.  Also, he’s a bit of a mad character so that’s added to the mystique as it where 

Similar in a way to Ralf Rangnick - only major honour he’s won in the top leagues is the German cup.  But he’s massively rated by a lot of people because of the influence he’s had on the sport and many coaches (including Jürgen Klopp).

I tend to agree with Bielsa though it does at times seem a bit over the top - but that  maybe because of his character as much as anything.  But trophy hauls isn’t often the best gauge of a coaches’ talent.

[SamLad]

He’s seen as an inovator and an influencer I think? Someone due to his style and technique has had an impact on a lot of other coaches.  Also, he’s a bit of a mad character so that’s added to the mystique as it where 

I guess so, but being an "influential thinker" and being a "top manager" aren't the same thing really.  the wheels seem to have fallen off - or at least they're wobbling - at Leeds right now.

mind you, I think they they could solve their problems if they give us Raphina in January. 

[royhendo]

Jonathan Wilson is good on Bielsa. The notion is that he’s another founding father in terms of a lineage - a lot of managers cite him as a key influence, he’s developed an incredible number of players, and his teams tend to punch way above their weight. It held more weight when Bilbao played Man Utd and humbled them in the Champions League when Munain was knee high to a grasshopper and so forth but for a lot of people the Chile side with Sanchez at the apex was the first exposure to him. He’s done a lot in the game but his approach has a short half life as a rule cos everyone gets exhausted.

[SamLad]

Jonathan Wilson is good on Bielsa. The notion is that he’s another founding father in terms of a lineage - a lot of managers cite him as a key influence, he’s developed an incredible number of players, and his teams tend to punch way above their weight. It held more weight when Bilbao played Man Utd and humbled them in the Champions League when Munain was knee high to a grasshopper and so forth but for a lot of people the Chile side with Sanchez at the apex was the first exposure to him. He’s done a lot in the game but his approach has a short half life as a rule cos everyone gets exhausted.

I wonder if he'd be a good DoF candidate somewhere?

[Dave McCoy]

I posted this in the Salah thread but since all anybody wants to talk about is whether he's worth X amount now it seemed a waste.  I really liked it though as it highlighted the tactic shift with Trent and Mo though doesn't included the RCM which I think is key to it and also explains a bit our midfield "problems" at times.

https://nograssintheclouds.substack.com/p/mohamed-salah-is-even-better-than?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzgzMDcwLCJwb3N0X2lkIjo0MzA4NjI4MiwiXyI6IlJFMldBIiwiaWF0IjoxNjM1MzUyODIxLCJleHAiOjE2MzUzNTY0MjEsImlzcyI6InB1Yi00MDgwIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.k3ffqVrfhWYEpYsyPQ4uCGetocjXyLfdmubXFAMvouc

As far as xG, I guess I was thinking it was more for the stats thread than a "tactics" thread but it's clear that it goes hand in hand with our tactics when you have Klopp himself alluding to it in why we do certain things.

[RedG13]

https://www.espn.com/soccer/liverpool-engliverpool/story/4508321/liverpools-best-form-of-jurgen-klopps-tenure-breaking-down-reasons-behind-reds-brilliant-run
Espn Writer Bill Connolly on LIverpool

[Ray K]

I think this fits in here. We're the ultimate version of a Saachi team, after all.

Jamie Carragher meets Arrigo Sacchi

A Jürgen Klopp visit – postponed due to the pandemic – is pending. This weekend an exhibition in Sacchi's village in Fusignano will be attended by luminaries Marcelo Lippi, Alberto Zaccheroni and Antonio Conte.

I met him 24 hours after my beloved Liverpool humiliated Manchester United, led by the manager who cites Sacchi as his greatest coaching influence.

I cannot resist seizing the moment.

“Did you watch the match yesterday, Arrigo?”

“This Liverpool team is a masterpiece,” he replies.

“A fantastic team without any real superstars. A true team. You see one playing for eleven, while other teams are eleven playing for themselves. 80 per cent of the time, they are moving when they have the ball. If they were an orchestra they would always be in perfect tune and in perfect time.”

And what of Manchester United?

His response is more diplomatic but in its way damning.

“At the 2014 World Cup, one of the Brazilian television stations asked me what I thought of the Brazil team,” he said.

“I told them, I didn’t see a team. I saw eleven individuals, thrown together on the pitch.”

[thaddeus]

Thanks Ray.  Great quotes!

An absolute credit to our coaching staff and the players who have clearly fully bought into what they're told.