Author Topic: Chasing the Title  (Read 1399440 times)

Offline wige

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2840 on: January 17, 2019, 04:30:59 pm »
Isn't this attack vs defense debate, with regards to this season, pretty much irrelevant though? We're essentially level on GD with City aren't we? With more wins and less defeats?

We're attacking and defending at the level of title winning teams, surely?! It's just that we're competing against one of English footballs great teams. Maybe on the way to securing our place as one as well.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2841 on: January 17, 2019, 10:33:39 pm »
A good, defence, sure, but not always the best one (caveat - under 3-points-for-a-win). They usually have one of the top two attacks though. The title winners have had as low as the 7th best defence in the league, but the title winners have only had lower than the 2nd-best attack 3 times since 1982.

"Defence wins championships" is more a myth than a truism.

Although "offence is the best form of defence" seems to hold up :D

And we nearly won the league with an average one :)

The "average" goals conceded in a 38 game season is 50. I'll look into it more later, but I reckon there were a few title winners who were quite close to that average.

Come on now PoP, I thought you liked being precise  ;). The original post did say good not best:

Exactly this.  Titles are built on a good defence.

City's clean sheet against 10 man Wolves was their first in about 8 games.  In fact, before that game every other Premier League team had kept a clean sheet more recently than City had.
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Offline woof

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2842 on: January 17, 2019, 10:58:05 pm »
Am concerned about the lack of cover especially when Manchester City are chasing us hard. We expect them to win every game & don't expect more blips from them. We're a bit thin on cover for defenders. All of a sudden, letting Clyne go out on loan doesn't look too wise.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2843 on: January 18, 2019, 12:07:22 am »
Am concerned about the lack of cover especially when Manchester City are chasing us hard. We expect them to win every game & don't expect more blips from them. We're a bit thin on cover for defenders. All of a sudden, letting Clyne go out on loan doesn't look too wise.
When Trent is not available for a RB, Gomez covers, then Milner, than maybe Fabinho (not yet being used there by Klopp). And we have Camacho who may deputize for a game to give someone a break. Clyne is not a big miss, although he could cover for Robbo, but he is not as versatile as many other squad players. It feels like a big loss for the moment because we had 3 CBs injured and had to do make-shift defense lineups, but the CB's are coming back and Milner and Fabihno are ready.
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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2844 on: January 18, 2019, 12:10:06 am »
Am concerned about the lack of cover especially when Manchester City are chasing us hard. We expect them to win every game & don't expect more blips from them. We're a bit thin on cover for defenders. All of a sudden, letting Clyne go out on loan doesn't look too wise.

Of the four defensive positions, Clyne’s is the most well covered.

I also don’t expect Manchester City to win every game. Why would anyone? They were a point ahead of us a month ago, now they’re four behind. We are no where near as erratic.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2845 on: January 18, 2019, 11:47:48 am »
Am concerned about the lack of cover especially when Manchester City are chasing us hard. We expect them to win every game & don't expect more blips from them. We're a bit thin on cover for defenders. All of a sudden, letting Clyne go out on loan doesn't look too wise.

After Saturday, City literally have to play 3 games before we play again. I am convinced they will drop points again this season.

Offline kiwiscouser

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2846 on: January 18, 2019, 04:12:34 pm »
After Saturday, City literally have to play 3 games before we play again. I am convinced they will drop points again this season.

There will be plenty of twists and turns I am sure with all teams dropping points. Especially if we both go deep again in the CL

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2847 on: January 18, 2019, 04:17:16 pm »
I feel that there's nearly always a crucial game, where a team slips, and that tilts the title to the other team.

I always remember the 1985-86 season when we were chasing the title with Everton.
They played away to Oxford United, 3rd from last game of the season and got beat 1-0.
I listened to it on Radio City and we were going mad when they scored and when the final whistle blew.

Then you can look at us at home to Chelsea and away to Palace that year.

I just hope City have a few of those games - just like when Palace beat them at home.

I have a feeling their win against us has emboldened them a bit though.

We shall see - I do love a title run-in. There is a certain edge about it. Intensity.
Watching the other team is tense as well, you're just baying for the other team to get at least a draw.

Bring. it. on.
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Offline Linudden

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2848 on: January 18, 2019, 04:44:55 pm »
Of the four defensive positions, Clyne’s is the most well covered.

I also don’t expect Manchester City to win every game. Why would anyone? They were a point ahead of us a month ago, now they’re four behind. We are no where near as erratic.

There's a possibility they could, but it's rather unlikely. I'd give it 15-20 %.

I think they'll drop points on 3-4 more occasions myself, not sure whether they'll lose again, however. They'll finish between 92 and 95 points I'd reckon. The question is, can we continue to keep the defence in order, because if we keep a lot of clean sheets and also manage to get results out of Old Trafford and Goodison, we're looking good. Having said that, we've every reason to not underestimate any team. Even the trips to Fulham, Cardiff and Newcastle could get ugly if they play in complete panic and we don't show up.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 04:47:49 pm by Linudden »
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Offline Mr_Shane

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2849 on: January 18, 2019, 06:38:28 pm »
Not many teams can pull off a 16 game winning streak, let alone two. It could happen, but it don;t think it will. I expect City to drop points as do ourselves.

Offline Gutzon Borglum

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2850 on: January 18, 2019, 09:16:04 pm »
City will definately drop points, they still have to go to Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs.. The chances they win all 3 matches is rather unlikely in my estimation. They also have United coming to play them at the Etihad, a fixture they lost last season.

Our only tough away game is going to United, Spurs and Chelsea have to come to Anfield. We could easily afford to draw two of those if we win at least one, so long as we keep up our form against the rest of the league City will need to be almost perfect to catch us.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2851 on: January 18, 2019, 09:24:52 pm »
City will definately drop points, they still have to go to Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs.. The chances they win all 3 matches is rather unlikely in my estimation. They also have United coming to play them at the Etihad, a fixture they lost last season.

Our only tough away game is going to United, Spurs and Chelsea have to come to Anfield. We could easily afford to draw two of those if we win at least one, so long as we keep up our form against the rest of the league City will need to be almost perfect to catch us.
They play Arsenal, Chelsea & Spurs at the Etihad dont they?
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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2852 on: January 18, 2019, 10:04:02 pm »
They play Arsenal, Chelsea & Spurs at the Etihad dont they?

Yep. Our run ins are very similar. Both only have United Away from the top 6. So while we can say ours looks decent on appear there’s does too. Especially as Everton doesn’t hold the same danger for them. West Ham away which we have also looks tougher than any if there’s.

From memory their toughest after United are Leicester and Palace although Palace are dogshit at home and actually better away.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2854 on: January 18, 2019, 11:14:06 pm »
Pep mentioned in one of his press conferences that this season reminded him of his 2nd with Barca where they ended up pipping Real Madrid to the post by 3 points, ending on 99pts to 96.

In this case we must be Barca, because they lead at round 22 and never relinquished the lead.  In the last 16 games Barca dropped 4 points to Real Madrid's 5.

It's extremely unlikely that Man City win their next 16 games, in fact if we were to assume that on average in all of their next games they have an 80% probability (generous) of winning each game then the probability of them winning all 16 is ~3%.

I'd estimate a range of points they'll drop at between 4 - 10 points, based on last seasons performance and similar title run ins across major European leagues. 

 

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2855 on: January 19, 2019, 11:19:13 am »
Would a bus top parade be on Monday 13th?

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2856 on: January 19, 2019, 11:45:03 am »
Would a bus top parade be on Monday 13th?

Fortunately, the manager and team are looking no further than Palace.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2857 on: January 19, 2019, 11:55:32 am »
Fans can't discuss the possibility on a forum?

I reckon so CB.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2858 on: January 19, 2019, 05:00:40 pm »
14 to go
WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE!

Normally a player can look great on tubes, but one of the things that's encouraging for me is just the amount of youtube videos on him

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2859 on: January 19, 2019, 05:13:48 pm »
You could hear the sound of broken hearts in Manchester tonight. ;D

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2860 on: January 19, 2019, 05:27:30 pm »
Would a bus top parade be on Monday 13th?

Long, long, long way to go, ask again after the wolves game..

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2861 on: January 19, 2019, 05:29:11 pm »
Even though a rolled coaster of game for us, the most satisfying thing is how deflated the Manc support would have been (blue and red) at the outcome.

Offline Vinay

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2862 on: January 19, 2019, 05:32:11 pm »
A good, defence, sure, but not always the best one (caveat - under 3-points-for-a-win). They usually have one of the top two attacks though. The title winners have had as low as the 7th best defence in the league, but the title winners have only had lower than the 2nd-best attack 3 times since 1982.

"Defence wins championships" is more a myth than a truism.

Although "offence is the best form of defence" seems to hold up :D

And we nearly won the league with an average one :)

The "average" goals conceded in a 38 game season is 50. I'll look into it more later, but I reckon there were a few title winners who were quite close to that average.


Defence does win championships in the NFL and even in College Football.

I would say a poor defence does not win championships, certainly this century, even if you score for fun.


Offline Vinay

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2863 on: January 19, 2019, 05:35:08 pm »
Pep mentioned in one of his press conferences that this season reminded him of his 2nd with Barca where they ended up pipping Real Madrid to the post by 3 points, ending on 99pts to 96.

In this case we must be Barca, because they lead at round 22 and never relinquished the lead.  In the last 16 games Barca dropped 4 points to Real Madrid's 5.

It's extremely unlikely that Man City win their next 16 games, in fact if we were to assume that on average in all of their next games they have an 80% probability (generous) of winning each game then the probability of them winning all 16 is ~3%.

I'd estimate a range of points they'll drop at between 4 - 10 points, based on last seasons performance and similar title run ins across major European leagues. 

 
I reckon Man City will drop only 2 more points this season. So it is really all in our hands...

Offline aggerdid

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2864 on: January 19, 2019, 05:37:48 pm »
Lets leave NFL cliches at the door lads. Not our best day at the back but palace are a difficult side. The difference is we scored 4 against them whereas city scored 2. All these city fans saying we’re wobbling, we’ve dropped points in one match of the last 12. Albeit have began to concede more often with the CB pairing changing regularly. Lets get gomez and trent healed and get back to clean sheets
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Offline Linudden

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2865 on: January 19, 2019, 05:37:59 pm »
Is it just me or was this game not sort of a "carbon copy" of the Swansea game in spring 2014? 4-3 at Anfield and during the second half there was the very real prospect of losing that game. Then Rodgers even brought Agger off after he was bullied by Bony in the air and for strength and brought Touré on and it duly just worked out. For me, that game was huge in putting ourselves in that pole position spot as the month of May beckoned. It really can do so much to a team to ride such a shitstorm out with three points! I had forgotten who scored the winner, but the video reminded me. Hendo took his own rebound and just smashed it!

For those of you who don't remember:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/jv0xGft4JpE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/jv0xGft4JpE</a>
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 01:12:40 pm by Linudden »
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Offline Vinay

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2866 on: January 19, 2019, 05:38:01 pm »
I feel that there's nearly always a crucial game, where a team slips, and that tilts the title to the other team.

I always remember the 1985-86 season when we were chasing the title with Everton.
They played away to Oxford United, 3rd from last game of the season and got beat 1-0.
I listened to it on Radio City and we were going mad when they scored and when the final whistle blew.

Then you can look at us at home to Chelsea and away to Palace that year.

I just hope City have a few of those games - just like when Palace beat them at home.

I have a feeling their win against us has emboldened them a bit though.

We shall see - I do love a title run-in. There is a certain edge about it. Intensity.
Watching the other team is tense as well, you're just baying for the other team to get at least a draw.

Bring. it. on.
Feck it, I want a comfortable season.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2867 on: January 19, 2019, 05:39:58 pm »
Fortunately, the manager and team are looking no further than Palace.

I hope they boycott the Palace.
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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2868 on: January 19, 2019, 05:41:46 pm »
Defence does win championships in the NFL and even in College Football.

I would say a poor defence does not win championships, certainly this century, even if you score for fun.

I think to win championships, without a huge amount of luck, you need a large amount of both quality offense and defense. So when people say "defence wins championships," they are usually referring to which aspect is marginally more important, especially since with rule changes and optimized offensive tactics these days a lot of teams score for fun across many different sports.

For me, I think offense helps more over a large title run over a full season, but over a few months in a knock-out scenario than defense more often makes the difference. Though not always.

« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 05:44:14 pm by trimore »
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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2869 on: January 19, 2019, 05:44:13 pm »
PoP, did you tell them to go back to crazy 4-3s instead of chilled 1-0s because attack’s win titles?  :wanker
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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2870 on: January 19, 2019, 05:53:19 pm »
60 points in January is utterly fucking mental

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2871 on: January 19, 2019, 05:59:32 pm »
Hoping Puel isnt sacked before our game.

Have a feeling they might use these next 2 weeks to get someone in though.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2872 on: January 19, 2019, 06:05:33 pm »
7 clear of City again with two less aways. Their away form will need to be stellar from here.

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2873 on: January 19, 2019, 06:08:21 pm »
PoP, did you tell them to go back to crazy 4-3s instead of chilled 1-0s because attack’s win titles?  :wanker

;D
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2874 on: January 19, 2019, 06:09:51 pm »
I think to win championships, without a huge amount of luck, you need a large amount of both quality offense and defense. So when people say "defence wins championships," they are usually referring to which aspect is marginally more important, especially since with rule changes and optimized offensive tactics these days a lot of teams score for fun across many different sports.

For me, I think offense helps more over a large title run over a full season, but over a few months in a knock-out scenario than defense more often makes the difference. Though not always.

Defence certainly wins cups. All-out attack won't get you far in a cup scenario.

But with 3-points-for-a-win, and with 1 goal correlating to 1 point, goals become more important.
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2875 on: January 19, 2019, 06:11:14 pm »
Defence does win championships in the NFL and even in College Football.

I would say a poor defence does not win championships, certainly this century, even if you score for fun.

But both of those go into playoff stages with knockout rounds. That's when defence is key.

But in league play, attack is more important.
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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2876 on: January 19, 2019, 07:00:09 pm »
What seems a bit strange to me is that I think that luck decides most titles. The most luck comes from referees calls for or against. United's last year 2nd finish was a clear example of that - the analysis if all calls were given correctly, they would have finished 6th (if I recall)... Look at today's game. Had John Moss called the penalty at 0-0, it would have been a very different game. We've benefited from decisions gaining points, and we've lost points based on decisions. When it comes as close as it is between us and City, what will decide the title is who loses less points when decisions go against them. So far, we've been lucky to win games that referees could have steered away from us with poor decisions.
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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2877 on: January 19, 2019, 07:07:47 pm »
Fans of other teams be fuming

:lmao


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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2878 on: January 19, 2019, 07:29:11 pm »
Defence certainly wins cups. All-out attack won't get you far in a cup scenario.

But with 3-points-for-a-win, and with 1 goal correlating to 1 point, goals become more important.

Yes, Aside from a few exceptions (Rafa 01-02, Mourinho in 04-05 or Simeone in 13-14) you need to at least stay competitive with your nearest rival when it comes to goalscoring over a season to win the league. Which often means attacking for the majority of games. Or get very lucky.
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Re: Chasing the Title, The Pack Chasing Us
« Reply #2879 on: January 19, 2019, 07:44:50 pm »
Hoping Puel isnt sacked before our game.

Have a feeling they might use these next 2 weeks to get someone in though.

Not too bothered. If it was an away game there I’d be more worried like when Shakespeare took over.

I definitely got Swansea 13/14vibes. Would definitely prefer a boring 1 or 2-0 these days but good character shown again. Hopefully Trent fit for the next game.