Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2021-22

[Suareznumber7]

If you take yesterday's game in isolation, it was a good result considering everything we were up against.  But, going against this Man City, it feels like any drop of points, regardless of circumstances, is another blow towards our title ambitions.  We really need to almost be perfect from here on out if we are going to win the league this year. 

[Dr Stu-Pid]

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 13 points from our last 5 games, 10 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[courty61]

If you take yesterday's game in isolation, it was a good result considering everything we were up against.  But, going against this Man City, it feels like any drop of points, regardless of circumstances, is another blow towards our title ambitions.  We really need to almost be perfect from here on out if we are going to win the league this year. 

Think we need to just stay in touching distance at the moment. But it may rely on us having to go to the Etihad and winning

[stonecold_jpm]

Are we still -1? 

[PoetryInMotion]

Are we still -1?

No, -2 and City are on +4, so it's the same 6 point difference.

[Prof]

[Dr Stu-Pid]

Bit of a mess with some teams having played 3 games since the last update and others only 2, so I'll avoid posting multiple iterations and just go with the current 38 game update:

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 8 points from our last 5 games, 12 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[Prof]

[Redwhiteandnotblue]

Think there's an issue with the second spreadsheet screenshot? 3 teams with no red shaded lost games and Arsenal have a load of inconsistent cells.

[Prof]

[Prof]

Think there's an issue with the second spreadsheet screenshot? 3 teams with no red shaded lost games and Arsenal have a load of inconsistent cells.

Thanks

I didn't notice that one.  Rushed update.

Hopefully it's right this round, someone shout up if they spot anything wrong please.

[Paul1611]

Interesting that the media would have us believe Utd were a shoe in for 4th, however Spurs are looking in not too bad shape on the APLT

[BassTunedToRed]

Interesting that the media would have us believe Utd were a shoe in for 4th, however Spurs are looking in not too bad shape on the APLT

This is for the results comparison thread really but Spurs are six points up on the corresponding fixtures last season while United are down nine. Definitely stand a good chance of getting fourth.

[viewing only]

Am I right in saying that a win at City takes us to 0 and city to 1? Juicy if so. Closer than we may believe.

[KurtVerbose]

Am I right in saying that a win at City takes us to 0 and city to 1? Juicy if so. Closer than we may believe.

I hadn't thought about it, but yes, a win at City looks a lot better on the APLT than it does in the actual table.

I just look at the second half we played yesterday and think that's exactly how we've been dropping points for most of the season. I don't know if we'll fix it with the midfielders we have.

Maybe when Thiago returns?

Maybe when Harvey returns?

Just seems a tall order for us to put a run together like City have just been through.

[PoetryInMotion]

This is for the results comparison thread really but Spurs are six points up on the corresponding fixtures last season while United are down nine. Definitely stand a good chance of getting fourth.

Also, Spurs have 2 games in hand over United with a better manager, media are clueless if they think United are front-runners as of now.

In fact, if Spurs win all their games in hand over Chelsea (which is a big if), they can go above Chelsea. But even if they don't win all the games in hand, maybe lose 1 of them, or draw 2 of them, they'll still only be 2-3 points behind Chelsea.

[killer-heels]

Also, Spurs have 2 games in hand over United with a better manager, media are clueless if they think United are front-runners as of now.

In fact, if Spurs win all their games in hand over Chelsea (which is a big if), they can go above Chelsea. But even if they don't win all the games in hand, maybe lose 1 of them, or draw 2 of them, they'll still only be 2-3 points behind Chelsea.

Think Spurs are going to have a really tough time, don't think they have the quality or the belief at all. That said, they are still in the box seat for 4th but nothing there screams belief that they will get it.

[PoetryInMotion]

I hadn't thought about it, but yes, a win at City looks a lot better on the APLT than it does in the actual table.

I just look at the second half we played yesterday and think that's exactly how we've been dropping points for most of the season. I don't know if we'll fix it with the midfielders we have.

Maybe when Thiago returns?

Maybe when Harvey returns?

Just seems a tall order for us to put a run together like City have just been through.

Maybe, but it's clear that we faced harder fixtures in terms Home/Away in the first half of season than the second half. We have already played these teams Away - Man United, Chelsea, Spurs, West Ham, Leicester, Wolves - that's 6 out of the 9 other Top 10 sides in the current PL table. We have only City, Arsenal and Brighton to play Away from the Top Half.

The remaining Away games are Aston Villa, Southampton, Burnley and Newcastle, two of which are par 1s in the APLT, and we should be winning those 4 technically, excepting for maybe fixture congestion juggling through League, FA Cup and later stages of CL. I'm not expecting any midfield problem in those games, and hopefully we should be fine.

In total, we have only 7 Away games remaining and 9 games to play at Home which is in our favour as we have a better Home record.

As for our Home record this season, we have won 7 out of 10 games and drawing 3. The draws came against City, Brighton and Chelsea, with Brighton the only outlier. The Home games remaining are Man United, Spurs, West Ham, Wolves, Leicester, Leeds, Everton, Norwich, Watford. At Home, we should be beating the last 4, and probably Leicester as well (considering they've only won 2 Away games so far). We should be beating Man United, they're getting better results than their performances deserve. I'd fancy us against West Ham, considering Moyes' terrible record at Anfield, but maybe we need to be careful here. Wolves have a tight defense, we may have to work for the win there as well. Spurs have 7 wins at their Home, but only 4 wins Away, which means we can win at Anfield. In short, it is looking better for us than it did a few weeks before.

The only question is, will City drop more points?

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Interesting that the media would have us believe Utd were a shoe in for 4th, however Spurs are looking in not too bad shape on the APLT

Totally expect Spurs to finish above Utd.

Spurs have some decent players and a good manager, Utd have neither.

[PoetryInMotion]

Think Spurs are going to have a really tough time, don't think they have the quality or the belief at all. That said, they are still in the box seat for 4th but nothing there screams belief that they will get it.

Since Conte was appointed, they have 6 wins 3 draws and 1 loss in the League, with the only loss coming at Stamford Bridge, a stadium where they have won 1 time in 31 attempts.

Also, they are up 6 points in equivalent games from last season and are on track to hit 68 points, none of Man United, Arsenal and West Ham are on track to achieve that many points.

Their squad quality is poor for what they are competing, but they look good enough to get the points they need.

[killer-heels]

Since Conte was appointed, they have 6 wins 3 draws and 1 loss in the League, with the only loss coming at Stamford Bridge, a stadium where they have won 1 time in 31 attempts.

Also, they are up 6 points in equivalent games from last season and are on track to hit 68 points, none of Man United, Arsenal and West Ham are on track to achieve that many points.

Their squad quality is poor for what they are competing, but they look good enough to get the points they need.

Their run has been decent in the league but you watch them and speak to Spurs fans and there is very little to no belief at all. I also reckon Conte will be throwing a fit soon over transfers.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

Still a bit of a mess with all teams having played a different number of games.

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 8 points from our last 5 games, 15 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[PoetryInMotion]

Their run has been decent in the league but you watch them and speak to Spurs fans and there is very little to no belief at all. I also reckon Conte will be throwing a fit soon over transfers.

I don't think fans believing or not will have a say over the Top 4 race. I don't think they have a good team overall, but Son will be back in Feb. The team who look most capable of getting the points required will get the position, do you honestly think Arsenal and United, let alone West Ham have it in them to get above Spurs and maintain that level? Both are very inconsistent and both do not have an elite manager.

Arsenal conceded 10 shots to Burnley and can't score at Home against them, Man United are limping to wins, they were outplayed/matched by both Villa and Brentford, and created absolutely nothing before that 90+ barely onside winner against West Ham. They wouldn't look out of place competing with these mid-table teams, that's their performance levels minus the odd clutch moment from their 'big' players.

[BoRed]

Spurs absolutely look best placed to get the fourth spot. The only thing they have going against them is that they're Spurs.

I do wonder how Wolves would be doing in the APLT, though. They're two points behind Arsenal having played the same number of games. Would be funny if they finished fourth.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

Do you remember earlier in the season when I mentioned that I kept my own version of Prof's ALPT using a different methodology and there were some big differences in what the graphs showed in terms of how close we were to City and Chelsea?  Well now my graph and Prof's graph match almost exactly (I have us at -1 rather than -2, but City and Chelsea match exactly).

What is interesting now is how different we see the race for 4th.  I have Spurs at -12, Arsenal at -13, and Utd at -16.  My wife is a Spurs fan so she is hoping Prof has this one right!

[KurtVerbose]

In short, it is looking better for us than it did a few weeks before.

Interesting analysis. You've moved me over from the glass is half empty to the glass is half full camp.

[CanuckYNWA]

I hadn't thought about it, but yes, a win at City looks a lot better on the APLT than it does in the actual table.

I just look at the second half we played yesterday and think that's exactly how we've been dropping points for most of the season. I don't know if we'll fix it with the midfielders we have.

Maybe when Thiago returns?

Maybe when Harvey returns?

Just seems a tall order for us to put a run together like City have just been through.

Fully agree, years passed 2-0 margins for us were pretty much nailed on wins and we would shut the game down and either get another or just cruise to a 2-0. But the fact weve dropped points in two games in similar fashions to how Palace carved us open is terrifying

I do think we are very much still in the race though. Biggest thing we need to focus on is just pumping out wins, City do not perform well under pressure. Weve seen it for years, they are very much a momentum team and you disrupt that and the will falter

So just gotta keep the pressure on towards that City Game. If we are within 2--4 points come that City game and win it then we win the title imo, city will collapse.

[CanuckYNWA]

Spurs absolutely look best placed to get the fourth spot. The only thing they have going against them is that they're Spurs.

I do wonder how Wolves would be doing in the APLT, though. They're two points behind Arsenal having played the same number of games. Would be funny if they finished fourth.

Wolves are a decent team, but as seen through these past few years where theyve been around 6th - 10th. They just struggle to score goals it seems and get too many draws

[PoetryInMotion]

Interesting analysis. You've moved me over from the glass is half empty to the glass is half full camp.

Re-did my math mate, and I've moved back to glass half-empty camp in terms of the title. Previously, I didn't see the City side of it, I was only looking at our fixtures. Don't want to move you back, but let me explain.

The thing is that my points stand regarding our fixture list, but let's consider a worst case scenario. Out of those 3 Top Half Away games, there is a possibility of drawing one and losing one. And among the 4 Bottom Half Away games, we may draw 1. That's 7 points dropped. Among the 9 Home games, let's say we draw to 2 of Man United, Spurs, West Ham or Wolves (hopefully we'll beat the other five). That's 4 more points dropped. That's 11 points dropped. I said worst case, so I'll give a buffer of one more draw. So, if we drop 13 points, we land up at 83 points (current maximum 96-13=83).

Now let's consider our best case. We somehow manage to win all our 9 Home games bar 1, where we drop 2 points and we win all the 4 Bottom Half Away games. We draw against one of the Top Half Away teams. So, 4 points dropped in total, which gets us to 92 points.

So, there's a likely chance of us landing anywhere from 83 to 92 points.

Now, let's come to City. City have to drop points in at least 4 more games to go below our best case of 92 points. It could be either 4 losses, or 3 losses and 1 draw or 2 losses and 2 draws (this will put us both on par in terms of points and will need GD to separate us). Will City drop points in 4 or more games?

They've already played Chelsea twice. They have Spurs and Man United at Home. Can any of those two manage to take points off City - tough to say. The other decent games to watch are Away to Palace, Home to Brighton and Away to Wolves. West Ham Away is an outside chance. But it's not clear that they will drop points to these teams. That's only 6 games out of their next 14 fixtures (excluding their game with us) where there is even a remote possibility.

That means, our game against City is a must win. Unfortunately, since 2017-18, City have never dropped points to us twice in the League in the same season. They have exactly dropped points to us in one game in each season and they've already dropped points to us earlier this season. So, if we do take points off them in our Head to Head game, then it will be the first season since 2016-17, where we will manage to take points off City in both league games.

Looks like we are up against it. 

Of course, we should keep trying to win our games and see what happens.

[Penfold78]

Re-did my math mate, and I've moved back to glass half-empty camp in terms of the title. Previously, I didn't see the City side of it, I was only looking at our fixtures. Don't want to move you back, but let me explain.

The thing is that my points stand regarding our fixture list, but let's consider a worst case scenario. Out of those 3 Top Half Away games, there is a possibility of drawing one and losing one. And among the 4 Bottom Half Away games, we may draw 1. That's 7 points dropped. Among the 9 Home games, let's say we draw to 2 of Man United, Spurs, West Ham or Wolves (hopefully we'll beat the other five). That's 4 more points dropped. That's 11 points dropped. I said worst case, so I'll give a buffer of one more draw. So, if we drop 13 points, we land up at 83 points (current maximum 96-13=83).

Now let's consider our best case. We somehow manage to win all our 9 Home games bar 1, where we drop 2 points and we win all the 4 Bottom Half Away games. We draw against one of the Top Half Away teams. So, 4 points dropped in total, which gets us to 92 points.

So, there's a likely chance of us landing anywhere from 83 to 92 points.

Now, let's come to City. City have to drop points in at least 4 more games to go below our best case of 92 points. It could be either 4 losses, or 3 losses and 1 draw or 2 losses and 2 draws (this will put us both on par in terms of points and will need GD to separate us). Will City drop points in 4 or more games?

They've already played Chelsea twice. They have Spurs and Man United at Home. Can any of those two manage to take points off City - tough to say. The other decent games to watch are Away to Palace, Home to Brighton and Away to Wolves. West Ham Away is an outside chance. But it's not clear that they will drop points to these teams. That's only 6 games out of their next 14 fixtures (excluding their game with us) where there is even a remote possibility.

That means, our game against City is a must win. Unfortunately, since 2017-18, City have never dropped points to us twice in the League in the same season. They have exactly dropped points to us in one game in each season and they've already dropped points to us earlier this season. So, if we do take points off them in our Head to Head game, then it will be the first season since 2016-17, where we will manage to take points off City in both league games.

Looks like we are up against it. 

Of course, we should keep trying to win our games and see what happens.

Nobody saw Man City dropping points to Southampton. It’ll be the randomness, the noise in the data, that gets us the league title (if we get it) not just the fixtures you’ve focused on. In plain English we’ll need a lot of luck. Personally, I’m a glass half empty person. I like to think about the worst and plan for it rather than happily stumble into each lamppost, spilling my kebab in surprise, numerous times. That’s why I’m popular at work but less popular outside it I guess 😀😀.

[PoetryInMotion]

Nobody saw Man City dropping points to Southampton. It’ll be the randomness, the noise in the data, that gets us the league title (if we get it) not just the fixtures you’ve focused on. In plain English we’ll need a lot of luck. Personally, I’m a glass half empty person. I like to think about the worst and plan for it rather than happily stumble into each lamppost, spilling my kebab in surprise, numerous times. That’s why I’m popular at work but less popular outside it I guess 😀😀.

Ha ha, I can see why, at work, people are often asked to plan everything for the worst case scenario 

[wige]

Re-did my math mate, and I've moved back to glass half-empty camp in terms of the title. Previously, I didn't see the City side of it, I was only looking at our fixtures. Don't want to move you back, but let me explain.

The thing is that my points stand regarding our fixture list, but let's consider a worst case scenario. Out of those 3 Top Half Away games, there is a possibility of drawing one and losing one. And among the 4 Bottom Half Away games, we may draw 1. That's 7 points dropped. Among the 9 Home games, let's say we draw to 2 of Man United, Spurs, West Ham or Wolves (hopefully we'll beat the other five). That's 4 more points dropped. That's 11 points dropped. I said worst case, so I'll give a buffer of one more draw. So, if we drop 13 points, we land up at 83 points (current maximum 96-13=83).

Now let's consider our best case. We somehow manage to win all our 9 Home games bar 1, where we drop 2 points and we win all the 4 Bottom Half Away games. We draw against one of the Top Half Away teams. So, 4 points dropped in total, which gets us to 92 points.

So, there's a likely chance of us landing anywhere from 83 to 92 points.

Now, let's come to City. City have to drop points in at least 4 more games to go below our best case of 92 points. It could be either 4 losses, or 3 losses and 1 draw or 2 losses and 2 draws (this will put us both on par in terms of points and will need GD to separate us). Will City drop points in 4 or more games?

They've already played Chelsea twice. They have Spurs and Man United at Home. Can any of those two manage to take points off City - tough to say. The other decent games to watch are Away to Palace, Home to Brighton and Away to Wolves. West Ham Away is an outside chance. But it's not clear that they will drop points to these teams. That's only 6 games out of their next 14 fixtures (excluding their game with us) where there is even a remote possibility.

That means, our game against City is a must win. Unfortunately, since 2017-18, City have never dropped points to us twice in the League in the same season. They have exactly dropped points to us in one game in each season and they've already dropped points to us earlier this season. So, if we do take points off them in our Head to Head game, then it will be the first season since 2016-17, where we will manage to take points off City in both league games.

Looks like we are up against it. 

Of course, we should keep trying to win our games and see what happens.

Yeah, this is a more detailed (and better) explanation of what I've been driving at in the PL Run in thread.

The key thing that this doesn't really include though is competition state. A 5pm kickoff at West Ham is a lot trickier if Liverpool have played earlier that day and cut the lead to 3 points than it is if Liverpool have dropped points.  This next bit is the key for me - at this stage it's not really about what they or we can do over the entirety of the remaining games. It's about who drops points first. If that is City, and if we capitalise, their subsequent games have that little extra pressure. Then they're not *so* relaxed if it's still 0-0 at 60 mins in their next fixture. Doubts start to creep in.

My other concern is the impact and timing of our rescheduled games. That will increase our workload in comparison and with it bring increased injury risk.

Regardless of all this, you're 100% correct, the game at the Etihad looks to be absolutely must win.

I'dd add a caveat to that "they don't drop points against us in two games a season" thing. In 17/18 we beat them 3 times out of 4. Just that two of them were in Europe. But if we're closer come that Etihad game, it's gonna have a cup game feel to it I think.

[stonecold_jpm]

The Champions League quarter final games are before and after City so that could have a huge bearing on it.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 10 points from our last 5 games, 13 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[stonecold_jpm]

Last 25 league games show:
Us 57 points
City 63 points

So that’s the gap if we win our game in hand.

The last 13 games shows:
We dropped 16 points
City dropped 12 points.

Now considering those last 13 games some were still in the midst of our bad run last season, suggests we won’t drop as many this time. We’re gonna run them real close, probably gonna need to win all 8 of our home games and our biggest winning run needs to be now - we’re on 3 wins whilst another 10 wins before playing them would better their 12 game winning run.

[Prof]

[Ghost Town]

Lol at the red Manc droop

[nico 8]

Chelsea have played 24 games.

[Dr Stu-Pid]

This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 13 points from our last 5 games, 10 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

[Prof]

Chelsea have played 24 games.

Ah yes.  Thanks.  I've missed one out.  Can anyone see which one it is from the third graphic?  It'll be one of the white fixtures.